How Zero NFC West Teams win 11 games

[kerouac9]

True. I missed that, good catch. I was thinking he went 10-6.

I literally have a friend born in AZ who is a Suns and a Seahawks fan somehow. I figured when he didn't correct me I was correct.

Don't worry. Half of SEA fans think Darnold is Matt Flynn and Jalen Milroe is the next Russell Wilson.

Also the SEA def was ranked #1 in pts allowed that year. I am pretty sure that won't be the case in 2025.

Seattles defense was ranked 11th in scoring last year: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2024.htm

The Chargers were first, I think.

 

[daves]

Also the SEA def was ranked #1 in pts allowed that year. I am pretty sure that won't be the case in 2025.

Seattles defense was ranked 11th in scoring last year: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2024.htm

The Chargers were first, I think.

I believe @cardinals2025 was referring to Wilson's rookie season.

 

[BulldogCard]

All the sudden the qb is going from sorry in most people's minds to a pro bowl alternate. 12 wins? Maybe just shoot for a winning record and a wild card. The key will be if Murray improves to that double threat danger, and MHJ becomes the receiver that puts up huge stats. All possible, but I gotta see it.

 

[PACardsFan]

It’s really difficult and almost a waste of time to predict how a season may go. Every year teams over perform and under perform from the previous season. Add injuries or lack thereof, and it becomes an exercise of futility to make preseason predictions. But, that’s what fans do & that’s what makes lack of football during this time of the year more bearable. I, more than most, understand why it’s impossible to NOT be negative when it comes to this franchise. I’ve been a fan now into 7 decades. Many times during every one of those decades this franchise looked like it was ready to go to the next level. And pretty much every single time, they didn’t get there. Why? Multiple reasons, too many to delve into here. All this being said, this is a different time. This franchise has NEVER taken the approach of sustainable success before. Whatever short term success they ever had under Winner (60’s), Coryell (70’s), Hanifan (80’s), Tobin (90’s), Whiz (00’s), BA (10’s), and KK (20’s), it was short term because those rosters were never built to be sustainable long term. There’s no guarantee that MOJG get there, but they are exemplifying winning behavior. When you look at teams that go deep into the playoffs, and eventually win Super Bowls, they are lucky to avoid the kind of injuries that derail seasons. Can the Cardinals get fortunate in that area? Probably not, but we have more depth now than I can ever remember in my lifetime. Can this team, as currently constructed, win 12 games? I believe they can, but only time will tell.

 

[AZ Native]

It’s really difficult and almost a waste of time to predict how a season may go. Every year teams over perform and under perform from the previous season. Add injuries or lack thereof, and it becomes an exercise of futility to make preseason predictions.

This is so true. I once saw a post about the predicted W/L and the final W/L for each team and they were completely different.

 

[cardinals2025]

see - i tried man but you're just so bad at this - you trash stafford and the rams and ignore them winning the division - you wanna know why i have us losing to the rams twice this year? because we play both games at the end of the year in weeks 14 and 18 - when the games really matter - when the staffords shine and the kyler freakin murrays whine - the rams fnished last season winning 5 of their last 6 games - they only lost by 6 points in the playoffs to the eventual superbowl champions (who then throttled the former superbowl champions by 3 times as many points)

Why are we losing to the Seahawks in week 4 and why are we beating the Bengals and the Bucs?

You nitpicked one issue out of 10.

 

[cardinals2025]

It’s really difficult and almost a waste of time to predict how a season may go. Every year teams over perform and under perform from the previous season. Add injuries or lack thereof, and it becomes an exercise of futility to make preseason predictions. But, that’s what fans do & that’s what makes lack of football during this time of the year more bearable. I, more than most, understand why it’s impossible to NOT be negative when it comes to this franchise. I’ve been a fan now into 7 decades. Many times during every one of those decades this franchise looked like it was ready to go to the next level. And pretty much every single time, they didn’t get there. Why? Multiple reasons, too many to delve into here. All this being said, this is a different time. This franchise has NEVER taken the approach of sustainable success before. Whatever short term success they ever had under Winner (60’s), Coryell (70’s), Hanifan (80’s), Tobin (90’s), Whiz (00’s), BA (10’s), and KK (20’s), it was short term because those rosters were never built to be sustainable long term. There’s no guarantee that MOJG get there, but they are exemplifying winning behavior. When you look at teams that go deep into the playoffs, and eventually win Super Bowls, they are lucky to avoid the kind of injuries that derail seasons. Can the Cardinals get fortunate in that area? Probably not, but we have more depth now than I can ever remember in my lifetime. Can this team, as currently constructed, win 12 games? I believe they can, but only time will tell.

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Everyone should watch 3 minutes of this video starting at 18:15

I get what your saying and we actually are taking this path now. A math whiz just tracked that line of thinking with a brand new metric.

Part of doing that is drafting players that would cost a ton more in FA. We nailed that with our DT and CB picks in the 1st and 2nd round.

Trying to fill those holes in FA would cost so much more, which makes the risk/reward alot better.

Meanwhile, if you rewind the video to 15:00 it explains how SEA needs Greg Zabel to play tackle to make the pick worth it.

Even if he is the best guard in the draft, he was still more expensive than guards go in free agency.

This just one factor that goes into the blue chart I pasted below which is in the video.

This whole video is fascinating. This guy always makes high quality stuff. If you are a fan of the draft or just the NFL you will enjoy the whole thing.

You will look at the entire 2025 Draft in a new way.

I think we can win 11 but I am predicting 10 because we usually overachieve what Vegas and national media thinks and underachieve our own expectations.

Look at how we also evaluated players who were injured like Michael Wilson and Garrett Williams with our own doctors, just like we did with Will Johnson.

We ignored the noise and now Garrett Williams is a top 5 slot CB according to PFF last year.

We cut 40 people in 2023 and started over. This is the biggest example of long term thinking Bidwill has ever let our GM do.

And yes predicting a season is impossible because of so many random factors. So I try to account for a game or two we won't win that we should.

Because that has been a consistent fact since Kyler was drafted whether we went 8-9 like last year or 11-6 and lost to the 3-13 Lions.

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[kerouac9]

Everyone should watch 3 minutes of this video starting at 18:15

No thank you

 

[BirdGangThing]

You nitpicked one issue out of 10.

reduce your issues

 

[Heucrazy]

I think the defense will be good enough for 12-5 but the offense will bring that back down to 10-7. I am not a Petzing fan.

 

[cardinals2025]

reduce your issues

It seems like you are having us become a road juggernaut. We were 8-1 in 2021. Does that have anything to do with us being 7-2 in 2025?

CIN and TB...I don't see how we go 2-0 there.

TB is a better team than the Rams.

Playing CIN on the road is probably 50-50.

 

[cardinals2025]

I think the defense will be good enough for 12-5 but the offense will bring that back down to 10-7. I am not a Petzing fan.

Obviously that is a reasonable take. I can see that happening for sure.

 

[oaken1]

It seems like you are having us become a road juggernaut. We were 8-1 in 2021. Does that have anything to do with it?

CIN and TB...I don't see how we go 2-0 there.

TB is a better team than the Rams.

Playing CIN on the road is probably 50-50.

But we should beat the bundles.
Their line won't be able to stop our defensive front.
I think we beat green bay too...but Tampa is well balanced...our only real hope there is Kyler showing out on Baker

 

[cardinals2025]

I believe @cardinals2025 was referring to Wilson's rookie season.

Correct. Also, if Murray didn't throw a pick six vs them, we are almost identical to SEA in defensive ppg.

The difference between 15th where we were and 11th where SEA was is like 14 pts.

 

[cardinals2025]

But we should beat the bundles.
Their line won't be able to stop our defensive front.
I think we beat green bay too...but Tampa is well balanced...our only real hope there is Kyler showing out on Baker

WIN Week 1 at Saints
WIN Week 2 host Panthers
 LOSS Week 3 at 49ers
WIN Week 4 host Seahawks TNF
WIN Week 5 host Titans
LOSS Week 6 at Colts
WIN Week 7 host Packers
Week 8 BYE
WIN Week 9 at Cowboys MNF
LOSS Week 10 at Seahawks
WIN Week 11 host 49ers
WIN Week 12 host Jaguars
LOSS Week 13 at Bucs
WIN Week 14 host Rams
LOSS Week 15 at Texans
WIN Week 16 home Falcons
LOSS Week 17 at Bengals
LOSS Week 18 at Rams

10 MURDERS

49ers will get revenge early on after we swept them, exact same concept with us beating SEA here.

If Richardson plays, we are in for a dogfight in IND and I don't like our chances, especially after 2 wins.

Kyler Murray is undefeated playing against DAL and as a high school/college QB in Texas for his entire life on this planet.

We will beat DAL again. I think we could beat HOU as well (Kyler's only professional loss in Texas) but I am being conservative.

Dan Bickley made a good point that we need to be 10-5 going into the final 2 games that will be rough.

No one would be surprised if we were 10-5 and finished 10-7.



BigGameThings: Thats another thing that doesn't make sense. Losing to DAL is an insane prediction.

I give the Rams the credit they deserve, nothing more, nothing less.

 

[oaken1]

WIN Week 1 at Saints
WIN Week 2 host Panthers
 LOSS Week 3 at 49ers
WIN Week 4 host Seahawks TNF
WIN Week 5 host Titans
LOSS Week 6 at Colts
WIN Week 7 host Packers
Week 8 BYE
WIN Week 9 at Cowboys MNF
LOSS Week 10 at Seahawks
WIN Week 11 host 49ers
WIN Week 12 host Jaguars
LOSS Week 13 at Bucs
WIN Week 14 host Rams
LOSS Week 15 at Texans
WIN Week 16 home Falcons
LOSS Week 17 at Bengals
LOSS Week 18 at Rams

10 MURDERS

49ers will get revenge early on after we swept them, exact same concept with us beating SEA here.

If Richardson plays, we are in for a dogfight in IND and I don't like our chances, especially after 2 wins.

Kyler Murray is undefeated playing against DAL and as a high school/college QB in Texas for his entire life on this planet.

We will beat DAL again. I think we could beat HOU as well (Kyler's only professional loss in Texas) but I am being conservative.

Dan Bickley made a good point that we need to be 10-5 going into the final 2 games that will be rough.

No one would be surprised if we were 10-5 and finished 10-7.



BigGameThings: Thats another thing that doesn't make sense. Losing to DAL is an insane prediction.

I give the Rams the credit they deserve, nothing more, nothing less.

With the Niners we have a history of swapping sweeps..either we sweep them or they sweep us. Between the two I think there is a better chance of us sweeping them.
There is also a strong possibility we sweep the Rams. We almost did it last year and we have improved more than they have...the wrench in the gears is that both games are late season...when we normally crap the bed and they normally tighten up to prepare for the playoffs... ain't gonna lie..we are gonna have to take a huge leap forward to even beat the Rams once with both games being late season. Seattle is a wildcard....have no idea who they are...just that they are mirroring our team build...and they don't have beast mode or Lockett, or even Metcalf.... I'm thinking Sam Darnold needs to have an above average season in order for the hawks to compete...but,...unknowns.
Much in our division is guesswork until the bullets start to fly.
But I think we beat Indy and Cincy..and Green Bay...Houston is a toss up...and Tampa is too..simply because Kyler likes to show out against Mayfield...
This season will either be thrilling or horribly disappointing...but I don't see anything in between

 

[cardinals2025]

With the Niners we have a history of swapping sweeps..either we sweep them or they sweep us. Between the two I think there is a better chance of us sweeping them.
There is also a strong possibility we sweep the Rams. We almost did it last year and we have improved more than they have...the wrench in the gears is that both games are late season...when we normally crap the bed and they normally tighten up to prepare for the playoffs... ain't gonna lie..we are gonna have to take a huge leap forward to even beat the Rams once with both games being late season. Seattle is a wildcard....have no idea who they are...just that they are mirroring our team build...and they don't have beast mode or Lockett, or even Metcalf.... I'm thinking Sam Darnold needs to have an above average season in order for the hawks to compete...but,...unknowns.
Much in our division is guesswork until the bullets start to fly.
But I think we beat Indy and Cincy..and Green Bay...Houston is a toss up...and Tampa is too..simply because Kyler likes to show out against Mayfield...
This season will either be thrilling or horribly disappointing...but I don't see anything in between

I get your optimism but part of the reason why I stay conservative at 3-3 in the division is because of Kyler vs those teams.

Having a 2nd opportunity to sweep the Rams at the end of the last game of the season seems unlikely.

Kyler vs NFC WEST

4-4 vs SF

2-8 vs Rams

2-8 vs SEA

If we do go 4-2 in the division, not only is 10 wins pretty much guaranteed but 11 wins becomes more likely than 10."

Seattle has the best defense in the division, that is enough to keep them in contention but more so for a wildcard imo.

It will be interesting to see how Darnold does vs the Rams, cuz they had his number twice last season.

I think Darnold will play somewhere between his best season with NYJ in 2019 when he went 7-6 (19 tds, 13 ints) and last year.

I think AT CIN will be tougher than at HOU. Especially when we played Stroud well last time defensively. He had 4 INTs.

I expect us to split HOU/TB. But I agree with having a good feeling vs GB especially after losing Alexander.

GB is 10-4 with Alexander and 10-10 without him last few seasons.

I am probably biased with week 3 and week 4. My friend and I will be at the SEA game and us starting 4-0 seems like a stretch.

So that combined with the fact we swept SF, partly because they didn't have a kicker at home, makes me think they may be our first loss.