How Zero NFC West Teams win 11 games

cardinals2025

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49ers:

With the 28th ranked defensive ppg last season, and coming off a 6-11 record they can improve while still being mediocre. Every NFC West defense is also likely to improve.
They are extremely likely to repeat as the worst defense in the division, which has never finished 1st. (Rams were closest to them at 17th in ppg allowed)
They added big rookie dlinemen from the draft but lost more talent in FA, and their secondary is a mess. Purdy will be trying to outscore almost every team he plays.
Additionally, the lack of depth for Mccaffrey and Aiyuk (Samuel and Mason gone) is not encouraging and they faced issues on the oline they weren't used to having.
Finally the stars they do still have on defense, are finally starting to age. The rest of the division is young and more talented on that side of the ball. SF has to rebuild from behind.
You are looking at a team that could improve from 6-11 to 8-9 wins max imo. The fact their schedule is easier doesn't mean automatic wins like it often did in the past.

Seahawks:

Darnold will attempt to be the first Seattle QB to win 11 games in his first season on the team. However you slice it, their WR core is less than what they had last season.
He comes into a situation where every part of the Seattle offense is less than what he had on Minnesota talent wise. Perhaps he deserves some credit for Justin Jefferson's 1500 yd season.
But when you realize Kirk Cousins did better with the same sort of weapons Darnold had, it puts things more into perspective. He also has a new coordinator who is more conservative
and a very shaky oline. Cardinals should benefit from the fact that Seattle seems intent on trying out Marquez Valdez Scantling as their slot WR, even though he only had 19 catches
in 42 targets. He had a few TD's vs a few bad defenses in Klint Kubiak's offense (the new SEA offensive coordinator) Meanwhile, Tory Horton is faster than JXN and his vertical reach
is as good as DK Metcalf. I am hoping we avoid him in Week 4 completely. Macdonald's defense deserves plenty of credit especially vs AZ last season. 9 sacks on Kyler was a statement
and we better figure out how to block Leonard Williams while still accounting for everyone else. They may further improve, which would take alot of stress off of the offense.
Like when Geno Smith beat the Bears 6-3. That said, I don't expect SEA to sweep us again. Their new offensive play-calling is intent on running the ball more, which makes sense
looking at their stats below. and they were blessed to beat SF on a 15 yard run by Geno on 4th down when time expired. Something Darnold would not have pulled off.
SEA competing for a wild card spot seems about right.

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SEA winning 9 games and out competing the Rams in terms of divisional or conference record I think is a good possibility.
I see them getting the last wildcard spot if it is not the Rams or the Bears.Darnold isn't just leaving a better offense.
He is leaving one of the best ones in the NFC. Better than every NFC West offense by a mile.

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Rams:

Davante Adams is an upgrade over Kupp, although both are injury prone. The only other major move the Rams made was adding a top 5 DT. So while they did improve,
they didn't improve to the same extent that the Cardinals did, who dominated the points for the season series 50-23. The biggest change will be us facing Puka Nukua,
who is the best WR in the division, if you take his 2023 stats into account. It is meaningful that unlike vs SEA, we were a ball not hitting Mcbride's helmet away from
sweeping the Rams. We will probably end up splitting against them again.

Is Stafford in Decline?

PFF Grade:

Stafford's PFF offensive grade for 2024 is his lowest since his rookie year in 2009.

Big-Time Throw Rate:
His big-time throw rate has decreased, indicating a reduced ability to make explosive plays.

Completion Rate:
His adjusted completion rate has dropped, suggesting a decline in his accuracy.

Effectiveness Under Pressure:
His performance when pressured has significantly declined, with his EPA per dropback being much lower than when he's clean, suggesting a
potential weakness as he ages and becomes less mobile.

Reliance on Offensive Line:
He has increasingly relied on his offensive line to protect him when pressured, as indicated by his low scrambling rate.

Decreased Completion Percentage on Deep Throws:
His completion percentage on throws 20+ air yards has decreased, further indicating a potential decline in his ability to make deep throws.

All of this combined, plus the fact that the Rams have the hardest schedule in the division, having to play PHI, DET and BAL leans me towards
them staying around where they were last season. Which is a 9-10 win team, probably more likely to be in battle with SEA for the wildcard spot.
Unless they can dominate and sweep SEA like they did Darnold last year. Then 10 is more likely.


Cardinals:

List your own reason for why we won't win 11 games. It will require us to overachieve in a big way and not have trap games turn into losses like at IND might be.
I just don't see us playing up to that level.The offensive line would have to morph into a top tier unit along with the defense being more explosive than top 10.
Our schedule is easier, its not easy. I just get the feeling we are going to end up 10-5 with the 2 games left being at CIN and at LAR. And the chances we finish
10-7 at that point seem alot higher than they should be. Kyler has to play better, we have to score more in the 4th quarter andour WRs have to make big plays
while the line holds up and Petzing doesn't have any dumb calls. It is alot to ask for. I will gladly take the two game improvement. While I will say it is more
likely we win 11 since we have before recently, than being 9-8, I don't think it is by much. I guessed 9-8 last year and I am trying to learn from that. By picking
a record that reflects more of a bare minimum instead of havingrealistic expectations. Realistically, we are gonna blow a game or two. Kyler doesn't have
a 1-3 record in his career vs CAR by not blowing games.


Prediction:

Both AZ and SF improve 2 games from last season with SEA and LAR dropping back 1.


AZ: 10-7

SEA 9-8

LAR 9-8

SF 8-9


Playoffs:

PHI has lost alot and DET has lost both coordinators and their best CB, but I still think they will be some version of #1 and #2. I think we
will end up with the 4th seed most likely. TB holds onto the 3rd seed. With their core players in tact and adding Hassan Reddick makes them
look like an 11 win team.And I think first round is likely to be against GB or WAS, whoever the 5th seed ends up being. I don't see a rookie
QB making the playoffs for the Vikings. I think Daniels is due for a soph slump, but they still make the playoffs.

#1 PHI

#2 DET vs #7 SEA or LAR or CHI

#3 TB vs #6 WAS

#4 GB vs #5 AZ

Kyler is 0-3 vs GB but I think we beat them during the regular season and in the playoffs. I just think we are better team overall when playing them at home.

Just have this sinking feeling we lose at PHI in the 2nd round. That they are going to get their revenge for us beating them in 2023 the way we did.






 
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oaken1

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So...lol...in your evaluation of Matt Stafford..completions, explosives, clutch plays...
Did it not cross your mind that Kupps decline and Nacuas injury...might just have a little bit to do with that?? I mean, just a smidgen?

You underestimate Sam Darnold. The kid has talent. The kid can run.
I'm curious to see how Seattle uses him.
Certainly a better situation than the Jets or Panthers.

Niners got their DC back. Don't be surprised if a couple of those rookie defensive lineman look like pro bowlers by mid season.
I doubt it just due to the position...but I wouldn't be surprised

But us??
The Arizona Cardinals are going 12-5 this year. Accept it. It will save you a lot of time.
 

dreamcastrocks

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The Arizona Cardinals are going 12-5 this year. Accept it. It will save you a lot of time.
I think he is trying to convince everyone of that. You really believe we are going 12-5?
 

Ronin

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Mods, can we cap the number of new threads from a poster? I feel like Noah is building an ark here, what with the flood of new threads from this guy.
That’s above my pay grade, unfortunately.
 

kerouac9

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With the 28th ranked defensive ppg last season, and coming off a 6-11 record they can improve while still being mediocre. Every NFC West defense is also likely to improve.
You keep harping on this, but (1) they were 29th in scoring defense, and (2) they were 8th in yardage defense. They almost certainly underperformed their defensive talent last year. Do I think they'll be top 12 in defense? I don't know; it's certainly possible. But I think they'll be between 10 and 20; enough to be competitive.
 

kerouac9

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#1 PHI

#2 DET vs #7 SEA or LAR or CHI

#3 TB vs #6 WAS

#4 GB vs #5 AZ
Bruh you get that all four division winners get a home playoff game rn, don't you?

It's hard to see how the NFC West playoff entrant doesn't become a higher seed than the NFC South when they play each other.
 

football karma

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just a random suggestion to the site owner: maybe a page for longer form blog posts
 

BirdGangThing

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i've debated - giffed - parodied - and roasted this guy but nothing stops him - kind of like the terminator but more like michael keaton when keeps dropping tlc bombs in the other guys - impervious to my waterfalls - he sticks to the rivers and the lakes that he's used to
 

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i've debated - giffed - parodied - and roasted this guy but nothing stops him - kind of like the terminator but more like michael keaton when keeps dropping tlc bombs in the other guys - impervious to my waterfalls - he sticks to the rivers and the lakes that he's used to
We should all stop feeding him.
 
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cardinals2025

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So...lol...in your evaluation of Matt Stafford..completions, explosives, clutch plays...
Did it not cross your mind that Kupps decline and Nacuas injury...might just have a little bit to do with that?? I mean, just a smidgen?

You underestimate Sam Darnold. The kid has talent. The kid can run.
I'm curious to see how Seattle uses him.
Certainly a better situation than the Jets or Panthers.

Niners got their DC back. Don't be surprised if a couple of those rookie defensive lineman look like pro bowlers by mid season.
I doubt it just due to the position...but I wouldn't be surprised

But us??
The Arizona Cardinals are going 12-5 this year. Accept it. It will save you a lot of time.


1.
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You need to factor in both sides of the story. Our defense is going to be alot better AND Nukua will be back. We had a below average defense last year in many metrics. Stafford didn't need Nukua in previous years to light us up. You really think Rallis deserves ZERO CREDIT? Or that when he gets a dominant dline with a heavy rotation along with a plug and play CB2 in Will Johnson it won't make it tougher for the Rams?
Kupp and Adams are both injury prone, both missed games last year. So Stafford could face a similar dilemma yet again.

And the bigger issue is the Rams are not taking 2 of 3 from BAL PHI and DET.

2. No, he can't. Which is why he took so many sacks and SEA offensive line is not gonna make things easier.

That is partly why they drafted Jalen Milroe and they said they plan to use his rushing for a goal-line package at the very least.

Some SEA fans even think he is the next Russell Wilson and Darnold is like playing a Matt Flynn role.

Darnold 2024 Rushing

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3. I made it clear that I expect SF defense to improve, but that every other defense in the NFC West will also likely improve. They haven't addressed the secondary.

When was the last time the Cardinals scored 75 points in 2 games vs SF? Purdy has dealt with injured players around him before. The defense is what has changed.

You don't have to be a Cardinals fan to say that the Rams and Seahawks have much more talent on defense than SF, it is not even close at this point.

They lost $170 million worth of players in FA, the majority on the defensive side. I have them winning 2 more games than last year so I am not sure what you are even disagreeing with.


4. If the Cardinals go 12-5, I will dox myself and shave my head. Its not happening. The NFC South is tougher than it appears. Our oline will cause issues for us vs LAR and SEA dline again.

Carolina is going to beat someone in our division again, even if it is not us. Look at how they played last season right before playing us and they have improved on defense.

There has yet to be a year since Kyler got drafted that we didn't blow a game we shouldn't of lost. This year it will probably be someone like IND if Richardson plays.

We have been very subpar as a defense defending athletic running QBs. Also, JAX with Lawrence back and the best rookie WR last year is another possible let down.

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cardinals2025

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I will tell you guys why I felt obligated to make a playoff prediction. And it is a just guess by the way, there are a ton of arguments about why I will likely be wrong.

I probably shouldn't of added that to my post and I am sure many of you have much better arguments. I don't deny that.

It was because I saw Johnny's on PHNX Sports and now I truly believe he is smoking crack.

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Jaire Alexander is now a Lion...this aged poorly.


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I don't even know where to start with this. No Lions and 3 NFC West teams or the fact that Jaylon Daniels has no soph slump?

He also has the Cardinals at 12-5, and I need to see how that happens because schedule wise and based on past history, its bs in so many ways.

It is one thing to be slightly optimistic as a Cardinals fan, but 12-5 is like going head over heels for a girl who is barely a 7 expecting her to transform into a model.


Below is how many games each team was supposed to win mathematically in 2024 if luck, bad referee calls and injuries among other things were taken out of the equation.

There is no way in the coldest day of hell that 3 NFC West teams make the playoffs, GB is the #1 seed and the Lions miss the playoffs.

Notice the Rams were only supposed to win 7. That it was more likely based on how games went that SEA and AZ would finish tied at 9 wins.

The Vikings only projected to get 10 wins says alot about the SEA new QB and how fortunate he was.

The Buccaneers also underachieved, like the Cardinals did and Washington overachieved (more like got lucky).

KC was so mediocre in reality, which is how CAR nearly beat them. Apparently, HOU shouldn't of even made the playoffs.

The thought that SF might have deserved as many wins as the Rams is a shocking one.

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cardinals2025

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i've debated - giffed - parodied - and roasted this guy but nothing stops him - kind of like the terminator but more like michael keaton when keeps dropping tlc bombs in the other guys - impervious to my waterfalls - he sticks to the rivers and the lakes that he's used to

Unfortunately only one of those verbs matters to anyone who has any self-respect and you have done very little debating me on why my 10-7 prediction for AZ is so clueless.

Has it always been the case in this forum that everyone should act like they are a freshman in college trying to impress their drunk friends?

I can't even remember debating you on anything. Snark and condescension is only an arguement on Reddit.

It must be particularly annoying that I don't care about personal attacks and refuse to stoop to your level to try to make myself look good which seems to be your main goal.

I have always welcomed constructive criticism based on objective information. But I don't consider gifs, parodies and roasts as part of that.
 
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BirdGangThing

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Unfortunately only one of those verbs matters to anyone who has any self-respect and you have done very little debating me on why my 10-7 prediction for AZ is so clueless.

Has it always been the case in this forum that everyone should act like they are a freshman in college trying to impress their drunk friends?

I can't even remember debating you on anything. Snark and condescension is only an arguement on Reddit.

It must be particularly annoying that I don't care about personal attacks and refuse to stoop to your level to try to make myself look good which seems to be your main goal.

I have always welcomed constructive criticism based on objective information. But I don't consider gifs, parodies and roasts as part of that.
we have debated but it's pointless making sense of your threads or why there's so many - ive defended you in here with hopes your writing might mature but you still can't construct your thoughts or digest criticism - instead you continue to pull up gobs and gobs of unrelated laughable data - you should be evolving but you keep posting garbage and keep getting mad when people complain about the stench so no - i don't want to read 87 unreadable threads 87 miles long on why you think we're going 10-7

but keep at it - no where to go but up
 
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cardinals2025

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True. I missed that, good catch. I was thinking he went 10-6.

I literally have a friend born in AZ who is a Suns and a Seahawks fan somehow. I figured when he didn't correct me I was correct.

Don't worry. Half of SEA fans think Darnold is Matt Flynn and Jalen Milroe is the next Russell Wilson.

Also the SEA def was ranked #1 in pts allowed that year. I am pretty sure that won't be the case in 2025.
 
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cardinals2025

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we have debated but it's pointless making sense of your threads or why there's so many - ive defended you in here with hopes your writing might mature but you still can't construct your thoughts or digest criticism - instead you continue to pull up gobs and gobs of unrelated laughable data - you should be evolving but you keep posting garbage and keep getting mad when people complain about the stench so no - i don't want to read 87 unreadable threads 87 miles long on why you think we're going 10-7

but keep at it - no where to go but up

Fair enough and I didn't intend to write so much at the start of all this but it was for a pretty self-centered reason which probably encouraged me to keep doing it.

I find the actual criticism helpful especially when I am considering betting ALOT on the over on our win total. Every time someone comes up with something legit about how we might not win 10 I want to hear it.

So the reason why I have done so much research is because I want to know what I am overlooking before I put alot of money on over 8.5.

I would rather look like an idiot on forums than put money into something I feel like is maybe 75% to happen when in reality it wasn't.

If I like our chances for 10 wins, imagine how I feel about 9. If only injuries are the main concern to prevent us from 9 wins, I really like the bet.

We have beaten the vegas prediction both years now since Gannon arrived.

Last year it was 6.5 in the offseason and 7.5 when the season started. We have already moved from 7.5 to 8.5 this year.

What do you our record will be? Are you being serious about 12-5?

Despite our disappointments with the team, people have been winning a ton of money due to underestimations of AZ's record last 2 years.
 
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cardinals2025

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been saying 11-6 for months

3-3 or 4-2 in the division?

If 4-2, who are we sweeping and why?



If 3-3 in the division,

ATL NO TENN DAL CAR

I am assuming you have us 5-0 vs the above. Which is a good possibility.


8-3

CIN JAX HOU TB IND GB

Then you have us beating IND, JAX and GB in AZ?


Issue I have is we have yet to have a season with Kyler where we didn't lose a game we were a clear favorite to win. Last year it was CAR.

In 2021, it was DET who was 3-13. You could also say the Christmas game I actually went to when we lost to IND where Prater missed multiple kicks.

Not to mention the fact we were a favorite vs SEA at home both last year and 2021. But as long as we split vs SEA somehow this year like 2021, that doesn't really matter.

Point is I can't remember a Cardinals team that didn't have a trap game on the road or blow a game at home we should have won.

If we go 11-6 without a divisional sweep, this will be the first time that happens in my lifetime.
 

BirdGangThing

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3-3 or 4-2 in the division?

If 4-2, who are we sweeping and why?



If 3-3 in the division,

ATL NO TENN DAL CAR

I am assuming you have us 5-0 vs the above. Which is a good possibility.


8-3

CIN JAX HOU TB IND GB

Then you have us beating IND, JAX and GB in AZ?


Issue I have is we have yet to have a season with Kyler where we didn't lose a game we were a clear favorite to win. Last year it was CAR.

In 2021, it was DET who was 3-13. You could also say the Christmas game I actually went to when we lost to IND where Prater missed multiple kicks.

Not to mention the fact we were a favorite vs SEA at home both last year and 2021. But as long as we split vs SEA somehow this year like 2021, that doesn't really matter.

Point is I can't remember a Cardinals team that didn't have a trap game on the road or blow a game at home we should have won.

If we go 11-6 without a divisional sweep, this will be the first time that happens in my lifetime.
i have us 2-4 within the division

 
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cardinals2025

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i have us 2-4 within the division



We beat the Bucs and the Bengals on the Road but can't scratch a win vs the Rams who we nearly swept last year?

You are giving them too much credit. Statistically, they were not supposed to win 10 games as you can see below.

I wonder how little it happens where a team improves their win total by 3 games and has a worse divisional record.




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So the Rams beat us twice, that must also mean they beat Darnold twice cuz they destroyed him last year in 2 games.

Say SF beats them once, so now you got the Rams at 5-1 in the division.

8-3 outside of the division is feasible.

They are gonna win 13 games based on your logic and Cardinals don't win the division.

So this is the year where we play horrible at the start of the season with an easier schedule but somehow finish 7-2 when it is brutal lol.

This represents a team that has zero consistency vs the NFC but somehow is lights out vs the AFC.

Literally lights out. You have us undefeated vs the AFC. And somehow winning 6 games on the road...

After winning 2 last year and losing 4 road games in the last 6.




"instead you continue to pull up gobs and gobs of unrelated laughable data"

Where is the data to support any of this? It is like you asked a magic 8 ball.

Bengals only won 2 games at home last year, thats the only justification I can find for any of this.

The Bucs won 5, kept their core intact, added Hassan Reddick and were projected to win 11.5 in 2024 based on the above.


Why are the Cardinals gonna have the script flipped between home vs away in 2025 compared to 2024?
 
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BirdGangThing

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We beat the Bucs and the Bengals on the Road but can't scratch a win vs the Rams who we nearly swept last year?

You are giving them too much credit. Statistically, they were not supposed to win 10 games as you can see below.

I wonder how little it happens where a team improves their win total by 3 games and has a worse divisional record.




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So the Rams beat us twice, that must also mean they beat Darnold twice cuz they destroyed him last year in 2 games.

Say SF beats them once, so now you got the Rams at 5-1 in the division.

8-3 outside of the division is feasible.

They are gonna win 13 games based on your logic and Cardinals don't win the division.

So this is the year where we play horrible at the start of the season with an easier schedule but somehow finish 7-2 when it is brutal lol.

This represents a team that has zero consistency vs the NFC but somehow is lights out vs the AFC.

Literally lights out. You have us undefeated vs the AFC. And somehow winning 6 games on the road...

After winning 2 last year and losing 4 road games in the last 6.




"instead you continue to pull up gobs and gobs of unrelated laughable data"

Where is the data to support any of this? It is like you asked a magic 8 ball.

Bengals only won 2 games at home last year, thats the only justification I can find for any of this.

The Bucs won 5, kept their core intact, added Hassan Reddick and were projected to win 11.5 in 2024 based on the above.


Why are the Cardinals gonna have the script flipped between home vs away in 2025 compared to 2024?

see - i tried man but you're just so bad at this - you trash stafford and the rams and ignore them winning the division - you wanna know why i have us losing to the rams twice this year? because we play both games at the end of the year in weeks 14 and 18 - when the games really matter - when the staffords shine and the kyler freakin murrays whine - the rams fnished last season winning 5 of their last 6 games - they only lost by 6 points in the playoffs to the eventual superbowl champions (who then throttled the former superbowl champions by 3 times as many points)
 
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