How opponents are trending

Chris_Sanders

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Well week 3 is done and you are starting to get an idea of what your opponents will look like. Here is how they are trending in my opinion compared to my initial thoughts.

Week 4 Rams: Trending up. Stafford has been well protected to date and is blowing away his career averages. If he stays at a 3% sack rate, the Rams will be the toughest opponent on the schedule.
Week 5 49ers Trending Down. I don't see anything here that has them challenging for the division. They are averaging 3.6 yards a carry after the RB room has been decimated.
Week 6 Browns Trending Up. The trendy pick to win the AFC North will bludgeon you with the run game. They have a ridiculous 500 yards rushing already.
Week 7 Texans Trending Same. Yeah they got a win against Jacksonville but this is a cupcake. I already thought they were a cupcake.
Week 8 Packers Trending Down. I thought this was the NFC Super Bowl representative. They are lucky to play in the NFC North.
Week 9 49ers See week 5.
Week 10 Panther Trending Up. Matt Rhule is the junk QB whisperer.
Week 11 Seahawks Trending Down. Only team in the division with a negative point differential and has lost twice to teams the Cards have already played.
Week 12 Bears. Trending Down. This team averaged 1.1 yards per play last week. They are already -37. How did we lose a playoff spot to this coach?
Week 13 Rams See Week 4
Week 14 Lions Trending Down. Another AFC North special with a -28 point differential through 3 weeks.
Week 15 Colts Trending Down. Carson Wentz is the new Jake Delhomme. Whatever happened in Philly has ruined him.
Week 16 Cowboys Trending Up. This team can score in bunches. Does this game get flexed over Vikings and Packers?
Week 17 Seahawks See week 11

The Common Divisions - The NFC North and AFC South are comically bad and yet the Seahawks already have two losses there. The Titans on the road were the toughest team in that slate. The Vikings were the next hardest out and they are done. Probably 7-1 against that division where either the Packers win on Thursday or some fluke happens against the Lions AGAIN.

Our Division. Likely 3-3 + / - a game.

The Seahawks are about to implode. They face a must win against the 49ers this week and then a short week to play the Rams.
The Rams getting the Giants while we get the Cowboys is a rough turn. We MIGHT steal 1 against them. I don't see 4 losses on their schedule. I will count both games as losses because McVay is Kliff's daddy.
The 49ers They are 2-1 by barely beating the the Eagles and the Lions. I only feared them running the football and they are inept at it so far.

Bonus Games - Browns, Cowboys, and Panthers - Wow did we lose the straw draw here. Cowboys and Browns are likely division winners and the Panthers are a tough out. I am going to say 1-2 here.

Updated Record Prediction - Prior pick was 9-8. Updated pick 11-6. 9-8 is the floor where you get swept in the bonus games and split with the 49ers and Seahawks. Upside is 13-4 where you split with the Rams and go 2-1 in the Bonus games.
 

football karma

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Chris: this is the content i am here for

49ers look like a team that will beat you if you dont play well, but not dangerous. Jimmy G -- pressure him and he comically loses composure.

Seattle is interesting. next two weeks will be critical for them. One of those two games have to be considered must win for them -- in weeks 4&5!
 

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Great post Chris…. Damn that took some time… insomnia?
 

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thank you chris.... this is much how I see it as well


except without the darnold jab, lol...I wanted him in the draft
 

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Well week 3 is done and you are starting to get an idea of what your opponents will look like. Here is how they are trending in my opinion compared to my initial thoughts.

Week 4 Rams: Trending up. Stafford has been well protected to date and is blowing away his career averages. If he stays at a 3% sack rate, the Rams will be the toughest opponent on the schedule.
Week 5 49ers Trending Down. I don't see anything here that has them challenging for the division. They are averaging 3.6 yards a carry after the RB room has been decimated.
Week 6 Browns Trending Up. The trendy pick to win the AFC North will bludgeon you with the run game. They have a ridiculous 500 yards rushing already.
Week 7 Texans Trending Same. Yeah they got a win against Jacksonville but this is a cupcake. I already thought they were a cupcake.
Week 8 Packers Trending Down. I thought this was the NFC Super Bowl representative. They are lucky to play in the NFC North.
Week 9 49ers See week 5.
Week 10 Panther Trending Up. Matt Rhule is the junk QB whisperer.
Week 11 Seahawks Trending Down. Only team in the division with a negative point differential and has lost twice to teams the Cards have already played.
Week 12 Bears. Trending Down. This team averaged 1.1 yards per play last week. They are already -37. How did we lose a playoff spot to this coach?
Week 13 Rams See Week 4
Week 14 Lions Trending Down. Another AFC North special with a -28 point differential through 3 weeks.
Week 15 Colts Trending Down. Carson Wentz is the new Jake Delhomme. Whatever happened in Philly has ruined him.
Week 16 Cowboys Trending Up. This team can score in bunches. Does this game get flexed over Vikings and Packers?
Week 17 Seahawks See week 11

The Common Divisions - The NFC North and AFC South are comically bad and yet the Seahawks already have two losses there. The Titans on the road were the toughest team in that slate. The Vikings were the next hardest out and they are done. Probably 7-1 against that division where either the Packers win on Thursday or some fluke happens against the Lions AGAIN.

Our Division. Likely 3-3 + / - a game.

The Seahawks are about to implode. They face a must win against the 49ers this week and then a short week to play the Rams.
The Rams getting the Giants while we get the Cowboys is a rough turn. We MIGHT steal 1 against them. I don't see 4 losses on their schedule. I will count both games as losses because McVay is Kliff's daddy.
The 49ers They are 2-1 by barely beating the the Eagles and the Lions. I only feared them running the football and they are inept at it so far.

Bonus Games - Browns, Cowboys, and Panthers - Wow did we lose the straw draw here. Cowboys and Browns are likely division winners and the Panthers are a tough out. I am going to say 1-2 here.

Updated Record Prediction - Prior pick was 9-8. Updated pick 11-6. 9-8 is the floor where you get swept in the bonus games and split with the 49ers and Seahawks. Upside is 13-4 where you split with the Rams and go 2-1 in the Bonus games.

2 Retorts:

How are the Packers trending down? They usually play like hot garbage in California games, but now sit 2-1. Week 1 was the exception, IMO, not the rule. Rodgers is still Rodgers...dropping dimes.

Say what you will about the Texans, but they play hard and are coached well. If Taylor is back at QB, they will be dangerous. They are way, way better than the Jags.
 

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nice post, thanks. The next 3 games are a gauntlet for sure. 2-1 I'll be super happy.
 
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2 Retorts:

How are the Packers trending down? They usually play like hot garbage in California games, but now sit 2-1. Week 1 was the exception, IMO, not the rule. Rodgers is still Rodgers...dropping dimes.

Say what you will about the Texans, but they play hard and are coached well. If Taylor is back at QB, they will be dangerous. They are way, way better than the Jags.

I had them as the NFC Champion and they got blown out by Saints. They just got by an average 49ers team. They have a -15 point differential and have given up 83 points. That's the 5th worst already in the NFC.
 

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Excellent write up...;) Posting mainly to make sure others get a chance to read it..as it almost scrolled off the bottom for me. Also if we happen to win this weekend.... I'll be hard pressed to find a game we should lose...
 

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Cardinals in a must win game this Sunday for NFCW. Why?

Rams are a physically tough football. They beat up an opponent like the legion of boom used to. The carryover physical effects will last on the losing team for one more week.

So if Cardinals lose to Rams, I expect them to be physically no sound for the 49ers game. If they lose two NFCW games in two weeks, forget about NFCW.
 

oaken1

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Cardinals in a must win game this Sunday for NFCW. Why?

Rams are a physically tough football. They beat up an opponent like the legion of boom used to. The carryover physical effects will last on the losing team for one more week.

So if Cardinals lose to Rams, I expect them to be physically no sound for the 49ers game. If they lose two NFCW games in two weeks, forget about NFCW.
misconception.
we dont need to beat our division opponents to win the division... we could end the year at 11-6 with all six losses being to the rams, hawks, and niners...and win the nfcwest crown.

it all depends on final record overall... nfl divisions mean nothing, they are strictly for ease of scheduling and to create rivalries for marketing.



example...some years back... the raiders swept their division....beat the chargers , chiefs, and broncos all twice each.... but they sat home while the chiefs went to the playoffs because their overall record was 6-10,,,lost every game outside their division

but they swept their division...that should make them the afcwest champs right??

no... because nfl divisions mean nothing.
 

Arz101

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misconception.
we dont need to beat our division opponents to win the division... we could end the year at 11-6 with all six losses being to the rams, hawks, and niners...and win the nfcwest crown.

it all depends on final record overall... nfl divisions mean nothing, they are strictly for ease of scheduling and to create rivalries for marketing.



example...some years back... the raiders swept their division....beat the chargers , chiefs, and broncos all twice each.... but they sat home while the chiefs went to the playoffs because their overall record was 6-10,,,lost every game outside their division

but they swept their division...that should make them the afcwest champs right??

no... because nfl divisions mean nothing

True But yeah NFCW is not like that in 2021....
 

oaken1

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True But yeah NFCW is not like that in 2021....
its a tough division no doubt. but im starting to think it isnt as tough as it has been in years past.
seattle looks like they have finally fallen to earth,... but coach pete and russ cant be counted out to bounce back so we will see...
the niners...the niners are a glass cannon .... they can blow a team up but they fall apart every season.... they have a long history of drafting injury prone players and it has culminated in a great roster...that is always injured

at the moment it appears that the nfcw is a two team race between us and the rams... the same rams who have absolutely owned us the past five years.

but we got better on both sides of the ball since last season,...our coach has learned a bit,...and our young franchise has grown and learned more about being a pro...

despite their record, the rams roster isnt as good as it was last year.... they are doing some very good coaching on the defensive side of the ball.

but make no mistakes...we were built to beat this team.... when steve keim looks at players he wonders how they match up against the rams. we got hudson specifically because he was the only center in the league to ever completely neutralize aaron donald... Hop neutralizes jalen ramsey and keeps him occupied... which leads us to green, kirk, and moore...green has size and skill, kirk has skills and some speed, and moore is quick, fast, shifty...and apparently has some skills of his own..if the rams commit the guys necessary to cover all our weapons then kyler is going to run for 200 yards...if they dont, then he is going to pass for 400
defensively I think we were built to get to goff, but the same philosophies hold true with stafford... the problem is that our pass rush is terribly inconsistent. watt has been doing pretty good but chan blew his wad in week one and disappeared.... I love me some Gardeck the destroyer... but players rarely come back from a knee and produce in the first season back so I dont expect a big boost when he returns... but we sure do need it.....we really need jones to remember he is in a contract year and play like it... dont necessarily need the sacks, but hits, hurries, disruptions... he needs to be having 6-8 a game... and a few actual sacks wouldnt hurt.

if we are real, and this is a two team race.... we need to just go out there and play Cardinal football.... dont "just take what the defense gives you" because thats how the rams win...we need to dictate to them how the game goes... take the yardage we want while beating up their offense with good scheme and punishing hits.
we can beat the rams.we have more talent than they do, an overall better roster..... kliff and vance just have to work their way past mcvay
 

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Well week 3 is done and you are starting to get an idea of what your opponents will look like. Here is how they are trending in my opinion compared to my initial thoughts.

Week 4 Rams: Trending up. Stafford has been well protected to date and is blowing away his career averages. If he stays at a 3% sack rate, the Rams will be the toughest opponent on the schedule.
Week 5 49ers Trending Down. I don't see anything here that has them challenging for the division. They are averaging 3.6 yards a carry after the RB room has been decimated.
Week 6 Browns Trending Up. The trendy pick to win the AFC North will bludgeon you with the run game. They have a ridiculous 500 yards rushing already.
Week 7 Texans Trending Same. Yeah they got a win against Jacksonville but this is a cupcake. I already thought they were a cupcake.
Week 8 Packers Trending Down. I thought this was the NFC Super Bowl representative. They are lucky to play in the NFC North.
Week 9 49ers See week 5.
Week 10 Panther Trending Up. Matt Rhule is the junk QB whisperer.
Week 11 Seahawks Trending Down. Only team in the division with a negative point differential and has lost twice to teams the Cards have already played.
Week 12 Bears. Trending Down. This team averaged 1.1 yards per play last week. They are already -37. How did we lose a playoff spot to this coach?
Week 13 Rams See Week 4
Week 14 Lions Trending Down. Another AFC North special with a -28 point differential through 3 weeks.
Week 15 Colts Trending Down. Carson Wentz is the new Jake Delhomme. Whatever happened in Philly has ruined him.
Week 16 Cowboys Trending Up. This team can score in bunches. Does this game get flexed over Vikings and Packers?
Week 17 Seahawks See week 11

The Common Divisions - The NFC North and AFC South are comically bad and yet the Seahawks already have two losses there. The Titans on the road were the toughest team in that slate. The Vikings were the next hardest out and they are done. Probably 7-1 against that division where either the Packers win on Thursday or some fluke happens against the Lions AGAIN.

Our Division. Likely 3-3 + / - a game.

The Seahawks are about to implode. They face a must win against the 49ers this week and then a short week to play the Rams.
The Rams getting the Giants while we get the Cowboys is a rough turn. We MIGHT steal 1 against them. I don't see 4 losses on their schedule. I will count both games as losses because McVay is Kliff's daddy.
The 49ers They are 2-1 by barely beating the the Eagles and the Lions. I only feared them running the football and they are inept at it so far.

Bonus Games - Browns, Cowboys, and Panthers - Wow did we lose the straw draw here. Cowboys and Browns are likely division winners and the Panthers are a tough out. I am going to say 1-2 here.

Updated Record Prediction - Prior pick was 9-8. Updated pick 11-6. 9-8 is the floor where you get swept in the bonus games and split with the 49ers and Seahawks. Upside is 13-4 where you split with the Rams and go 2-1 in the Bonus games.
Great post.

I actually think the Panthers are going to be a surprise sleeper team in the NFC. Sam Darnold shouldn't be judged for his time with Adam Gase, anyone would look like a clown playing for him. Against the Saints he was 26/38 for 305 and 2 TD's, no picks. His completion percentage so far is about 10% points better than it was under Gase, from about 60 to 69% completions, that's a huge leap (again, I know it's early). Mccaffrey's hammy is a major concern but if he gets healthy I think this team can cause some noise. I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Dallas Sunday in Dallas. Additionally, Mike Mccarthy is just trash, and I don't expect their team to stay consistent over the course of this long season.

It's a mistake to take anyone in our division lightly, but I'm a fan and not a player--the only team who scares the crap out of me is the Rams.
 

oaken1

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People dismissing niners awfully quickly. They were 39 seconds from being 3-0 and having beaten a better team (packers) than we’ve played.
what makes you think the Packers are any better than the teams we have faced??

they got killed by the saints, even though we all know rodgers was likely making a contract statement that doesnt excuse their defense giving up so many points.

then they beat the lions...with jared goff.....


meanwhile the Titans, who we beat pretty handily... have gone on to beat the seahawks and the colts

I would say we have faced better teams than the packers, and won.
 

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what makes you think the Packers are any better than the teams we have faced??

they got killed by the saints, even though we all know rodgers was likely making a contract statement that doesnt excuse their defense giving up so many points.

then they beat the lions...with jared goff.....


meanwhile the Titans, who we beat pretty handily... have gone on to beat the seahawks and the colts

I would say we have faced better teams than the packers, and won.
What type of bet do you want to make of packers verses opponent of your choice among our three opponents to date for overall season record?
 

DVontel

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Cardinals in a must win game this Sunday for NFCW. Why?

Rams are a physically tough football. They beat up an opponent like the legion of boom used to. The carryover physical effects will last on the losing team for one more week.

So if Cardinals lose to Rams, I expect them to be physically no sound for the 49ers game. If they lose two NFCW games in two weeks, forget about NFCW.
This is really bad logic.

It’s almost like one team has much better & all-around talent than the other.
 
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DVontel

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People dismissing niners awfully quickly. They were 39 seconds from being 3-0 and having beaten a better team (packers) than we’ve played.
I guess, but the truth is they didn’t. They were also in a low-scoring slugfest against a bad Philly team & almost let Detroit pull a comeback for the ages, they could be 0-3, but in the end, that doesn’t matter because they got the job done in those games.


The second LA got Stafford, I said they were gonna run away with the division, but the Niners have a lot of flaws people overlooked/looking because they love Shanahan too much.
 

oaken1

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What type of bet do you want to make of packers verses opponent of your choice among our three opponents to date for overall season record?
Do the pack play the Titans?

Straight up, no points?

Oh wait.... you said record not head to head.... let me do a little research on schedules

Ninety day avatar?
 

oaken1

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What type of bet do you want to make of packers verses opponent of your choice among our three opponents to date for overall season record?
wait...in your original point you stated the packers are better than every opponent we have faced so far...

so if you stick by that, I wont even look at upcoming schedules....

the Pack has to have a better win/loss percentage at seasons end than the Titans, Vikings and Jaguars.....if any of the three have a better record than the Pack,...I win...Pack has a better record than all of them, you win??

Ninety day avatar bet,...and the loser cant hide for three months,...has to come in and post as normal

what do you say?
 
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