Has winning camouflaged the Suns weaknesses?

[Mainstreet]

I was very impressed by the Locked on Suns podcast with Duane Rankin that I thought it deserved it's own thread.

It deserves a listen.

In the first 3-7 minutes Rankin does an excellent job of identifying concerns with the Suns particularly backup center and backup point guard.

Do the Suns believe what they have is good enough because they did not make any moves at the trade deadline?

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[AzStevenCal]

I'd say no, it really hasn't camouflaged our weaknesses, at least not to most of us that watch the Suns regularly. Casual observers probably think we're better than we are but many of us realize we've had a soft schedule with a lot of breaks along the way (specifically, short handed opponents).

We're a pretty good team. Like even most good teams, we have some real weaknesses - we need improvement at the starting 4, the backup 1, the backup 2, the backup 4 and the backup 5. At times, we've looked great at all those spots but we lack consistency.

 

[sdscard4]

I'm just enjoying the ride. Season has been great so far. This season is already a win win for me. Been a rough ride for 8yrs

 

[Mainstreet]

The Suns never replaced Damian Jones, Frank Kaminsky was gladly claimed off waivers and Jalen Smith is not ready to play.

Too much is riding on the shoulders of two big men in Deandre Ayton and Dario Saric.

I do think backup point guard could be stronger but a backup big man is the greater need. Unfortunately this will be a tough fix with the trade deadline already past and many buyout players have found a home.

Team chemistry is important but as the playoffs near, opponents have had ample time to pick apart the Suns weaknesses on the interior. Chemistry does not always trump talent.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Team chemistry is important but as the playoffs near, opponents have had ample time to pick apart the Suns weaknesses on the interior. Chemistry does not always trump talent.

I think we're ignoring marginal bigs for chemistry reasons but I highly doubt we're ignoring real upgrades for that reason. Maybe in a season or two we'll start to look appealing to buyouts with real value but right now, there are better landing spots for those guys.

 

[Mainstreet]

I think we're ignoring marginal bigs for chemistry reasons but I highly doubt we're ignoring real upgrades for that reason. Maybe in a season or two we'll start to look appealing to buyouts with real value but right now, there are better landing spots for those guys.

I think the Suns should have looked at big man options before the trade deadline.

It's not unreasonable to think the Suns should have at least replaced Damian Jones at center.

Whether buyouts were an option or not, we don't know. Those players usually end up with the big market playoff teams.

We do know the Suns have a two year window with Chris Paul under contract. I'd like to think the Suns at least tried to strengthen a weakness.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think the Suns should have looked at big man options before the trade deadline.

It's not unreasonable to think the Suns should have at least replaced Damian Jones at center.

Whether buyouts were an option or not, we don't know. Those players usually end up with the big market playoff teams.

We do know the Suns have a two year window with Chris Paul under contract. I'd like to think the Suns at least tried to strengthen a weakness.

I'd be shocked if they didn't. They (front offices) talk to agents all the time - they have a good idea who is available, who will be available, and in our case, who might have interest in coming to Phoenix.

I do think they felt a little less pressure to do something because they expected to get back a better version of Cameron Johnson - losing him and then having his shadow report for work has made our deficiency at the 4 spot more pressing. No, he's not really a big but he's enough of a threat from deep to force the other teams to match up with him. But the way Cam is currently playing, the other guys can just put another big out there to add to the beating we take inside.

 

[Hoop Head]

It's not unreasonable to think the Suns should have at least replaced Damian Jones at center.

Jones was replaced by Frank in the rotation within the first week of the season. Jones saw minutes in preseason and early on because of a lack of options but Frank provided a better option which allowed Monty to glue Jones to the bench. I was shocked he was picked up by the Lakers but he didn't last long there because he sucks.

When the team added Torrey Craig that essentially closed the door on another move because he took the remaining roster spot. I wish we had another big but we don't and we'll have to live with that.

I believe the front office views this year as a building block for a legit title run next year. This year is putting the pieces together and building chemistry while they use this offseason to fill holes and fix any issues to make a real go at it. Just think how much better this team could look with another MLE signing, Jalen Smith contributing some, and upgrading some bench spots.

 

[Phrazbit]

Yeah, I don't think those weaknesses are a secret. Although I don't think backup PG is too much of an issue. Cam Payne has been serviceable as a backup and I do wish we'd give Carter more opportunities.

Drummond and Aldridge were not coming here. I just don't see where the backup center solution was going to come from. We're over the cap and we don't have any dead salary to dump in a trade.

We're 33-14, a record so astounding that I'm pretty sure it is better than anyone on this board could have hoped. We've got some flaws but we are as close to contending with the super powers of the league as anyone else is.

 

[Carolinacacti]

If this team is hitting its three's weaknesses and all they are winning.

 

[Chaplin]

Winning camouflages every team’s weaknesses. Utah Jazz are a perfect example.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I think the office still sees this team as one superstar away from "title level" and wasn't willing to bet the farm on any of the names on the trade market.

I really think we may see a big play this offseason if a player materializes.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I think the office still sees this team as one superstar away from "title level" and wasn't willing to bet the farm on any of the names on the trade market.

I really think we may see a big play this offseason if a player materializes.

I'm sure they'd like to but I'm not sure we have the assets to work with to make it happen. I suspect they will try to upgrade a few spots but mostly hope the development of DA, Bridges, CJ and Smith take us to the next level.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I'm sure they'd like to but I'm not sure we have the assets to work with to make it happen. I suspect they will try to upgrade a few spots but mostly hope the development of DA, Bridges, CJ and Smith take us to the next level.

If this was 1995 I would tend to agree with you but in the era of Super Teams....... you need to compete in the arms race if you wish to have a real good shot.

Bridges could become Kawhi, I am on that train. But we need to upgrade DA IMO. We need a better third star.

Beal, Booker, KAT. That's a chance. Paul, Booker, KAT. Maybe. I still worry about Paul when the playoff grind comes. Statistics scream out that he will miss some time.

We have to become a popular destination for Superstars. They will bring the buyout candidates.

 

[AzStevenCal]

If this was 1995 I would tend to agree with you but in the era of Super Teams....... you need to compete in the arms race if you wish to have a real good shot.

Bridges could become Kawhi, I am on that train. But we need to upgrade DA IMO. We need a better third star.

Beal, Booker, KAT. That's a chance. Paul, Booker, KAT. Maybe. I still worry about Paul when the playoff grind comes. Statistics scream out that he will miss some time.

We have to become a popular destination for Superstars. They will bring the buyout candidates.

I don't think it will be a lack of desire, it will be a lack of assets. What could we give up for another superstar? Other than Booker and Paul we have no high value big contract assets which means to add Towns to CP and Devin we'd have to almost strip this franchise of assets (something like our unprotected picks plus pick swaps along with DA, Mikal, Jalen and CJ). And while quality typically beats quantity, that isn't an ideal ********* to build around in the first place and not just because CP will be crossing that age line one day soon.

Trying to replace what we get from Bridges, Ayton, CJ along with most of our future draft picks is going to turn us into a pale shadow of a super team and IMO, no more capable of challenging the Nets or Lakers than we are today. And that's just to get Towns - I have no idea how we'd get to Beal and Towns? That just seems like a mountain too high.

 

[Mainstreet]

As I view it, the Suns were a mediocre center or power forward away from being a serious threat in the playoffs this season.

They needed someone that could back up Ayton and allow Saric to float between power forward and center.

Maybe not enough to win it all but enough to make the Suns a serious threat to advance in the playoffs.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I don't think it will be a lack of desire, it will be a lack of assets. What could we give up for another superstar? Other than Booker and Paul we have no high value big contract assets which means to add Towns to CP and Devin we'd have to almost strip this franchise of assets (something like our unprotected picks plus pick swaps along with DA, Mikal, Jalen and CJ). And while quality typically beats quantity, that isn't an ideal ********* to build around in the first place and not just because CP will be crossing that age line one day soon.

Understood. And I admit that timing has to meet risk at just the perfect time IMO.

Look at the Harden trade to the Nets. Tons of picks and swaps. The Nets gave up Levert. A good but not great prospect.

The Wizards got Westbrook for a Paul level contract and one 1st.

I think a lot can happen with minimal player loss if we can stomach giving up a crap ton of picks that we all hope are in the 20's anyways.

 

[Dr. Jones]

But personally....... I would give up Ayton, Cam (or similar), & some picks for KAT in a heartbeat.

But I may be out on a limb with this one.

 

[Mainstreet]

But personally....... I would give up Ayton, Cam (or similar), & some picks for KAT in a heartbeat.

But I may be out on a limb with this one.

If it were the good old days it would be easier to do a trade like this although KAT's value is probably more than this.

The salaries have to come close to matching unless a third team can be brought into the trade to absorb unwanted salaries. That how the Suns got Torrey Craig.

For example, Kat's salary this season is $29,467,800. So if the Suns were trading for him directly with Minnesota they would have to come close to matching this salary.

Ayton only makes $10,018,200 this season and Cam Johnson $4,235,160. So the Suns would have to add more salaried players the Wolves would want.

And I'm sure the Wolves would want a player like Bridges who makes $4,359,000 included. Even then it would require more or different players to fill out the trade.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Understood. And I admit that timing has to meet risk at just the perfect time IMO.

Look at the Harden trade to the Nets. Tons of picks and swaps. The Nets gave up Levert. A good but not great prospect.

The Wizards got Westbrook for a Paul level contract and one 1st.

I think a lot can happen with minimal player loss if we can stomach giving up a crap ton of picks that we all hope are in the 20's anyways.

True but you can't schedule something like that, you can't control it. And if you think about it, preparing for that kind of scenario is the reason McD stocked our cupboards. OKC is looking like the second coming of Boston or Phoenix with all those picks but as we've seen, they almost always have more promise looking forward than value looking backward. That's true even for a team like Boston who didn't blow all their lottery picks on chumps and I'm pretty sure most franchises are aware of the risks (and disinclined to trade away stars in this manner).

I think we're more likely to be on the flip side of one of those type of deals anyway. If Ayton doesn't progress towards superstar, it's going to be challenging to keep Devin satisfied. At that point, we might become the team that has to trade a star in his prime. I'm not predicting this will happen, I just think it's more likely than us netting a prime aged superstar with the use of mostly just picks. It happened with Westbrook and Harden but one was being written off because of injury/wear and tear while the other quit on his team and forced a desperation trade.

For me, the smart move is to continue building with Devin, DA, Mikal, Cam Johnson and hopefully Jalen Smith. It's not a slam dunk, DA might not take the next step, Mikal and CJ might have already peaked, Jalen might not have a next level and Devin might tire of the situation and force a move. But every approach has risks, I just think staying the course has the better chance to succeed.

 

[AzStevenCal]

But personally....... I would give up Ayton, Cam (or similar), & some picks for KAT in a heartbeat.

But I may be out on a limb with this one.

Nah, I think most fans here would agree with you. But most of the time, that wouldn't include me. I would have rushed to trade DA during that 2 or 3 week stretch just before and just after the All Star break but otherwise, I would not be willing to add value to a Towns and Ayton swap. And adding value would have to happen.

If Karl and Deandre were equally cheap and available, I'm not sure even right now that I'd take KAT over DA. DA when he's focused hides a lot of our weaknesses, KAT just adds to those weaknesses. Towns might (MIGHT?) win a few more games for us if we swapped today but not enough to make much of a difference. We're all concerned about what kind of growth we will get from Ayton but I believe we'd have far less reason to expect any improvement from Towns than we do with DA.

 

[JCSunsfan]

But personally....... I would give up Ayton, Cam (or similar), & some picks for KAT in a heartbeat.

But I may be out on a limb with this one.

I go back and forth on that one. KT seems like the much better player but I think I am undervaluing defense.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I don't think it will be a lack of desire, it will be a lack of assets. What could we give up for another superstar? Other than Booker and Paul we have no high value big contract assets which means to add Towns to CP and Devin we'd have to almost strip this franchise of assets (something like our unprotected picks plus pick swaps along with DA, Mikal, Jalen and CJ). And while quality typically beats quantity, that isn't an ideal ********* to build around in the first place and not just because CP will be crossing that age line one day soon.

Trying to replace what we get from Bridges, Ayton, CJ along with most of our future draft picks is going to turn us into a pale shadow of a super team and IMO, no more capable of challenging the Nets or Lakers than we are today. And that's just to get Towns - I have no idea how we'd get to Beal and Towns? That just seems like a mountain too high.

I don’t think what you describe is unusual. You usually have to strip assets to acquire talent or fit under the cap. Look at the Lakers they essentially gave up every piece of talent but kuzma. Then you build around your stars with component parts. If you don’t sacrifice your talent to acquire the big piece I think you become the Bucks. A good team, but likely never a true championship contender Inless wverything falls your way.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I go back and forth on that one. KT seems like the much better player but I think I am undervaluing defense.

Defense is much more difficult to quantify with data and even the eye test because it’s rare to pay a lot of attention to a defender when off ball. There’s no doubt there’s a chasm between the two in terms offensive ability. I also think there’s undoubtedly a big difference in the other direction defensively. I just don’t know that it’s easy to identify how wide the gap is defensively as it seemingly is offensively.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Defense is much more difficult to quantify with data and even the eye test because it’s rare to pay a lot of attention to a defender when off ball. There’s no doubt there’s a chasm between the two in terms offensive ability. I also think there’s undoubtedly a big difference in the other direction defensively. I just don’t know that it’s easy to identify how wide the gap is defensively as it seemingly is offensively.

I also think KAT's defense turns up (Just like Ayton's did) under Monty's tutelage. Effort matters on the defensive end and when you have a frontcourt as bad as theirs is, it makes you a worse player.

He would have Paul and Bridges doing much better work up top and that matters.