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Will Max Verstappen win his fifth straight Formula 1 title on Sunday or will Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri win his first? (Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images)
Clive Rose via Getty Images
Lando Norris just needs a podium finish in Abu Dhabi.
The McLaren driver can celebrate the 2025 Formula 1 world championship if he finishes first, second or third on Sunday in the final race of the season. Even if Max Verstappen wins the race, Norris can prevent him from winning the title by finishing second or third.
It’s a scenario that didn’t seem likely with just a few laps to go in the Qatar Grand Prix. Thanks to McLaren’s pit strategy buffoonery, Norris was running fifth behind Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli. But the rookie bobbled and his car slid off the racing line, allowing Norris to slip through to fourth.
By finishing fourth, Norris’ lead in the championship dropped from 25 to 12 points over Verstappen. But that’s far, far better than the 10 points it would have been had Norris finished fifth.
Ten points is the gap between first and third place. The winner of an F1 race gets 25 points while second gets 18 and third gets 15. F1’s main tiebreaker is race wins. Verstappen won his seventh race of the season in Qatar. Both Norris and teammate Oscar Piastri have seven wins as well. An eighth win for Verstappen would give him the tiebreaker over Norris if they finished tied in the points standings.
If Verstappen improbably wins the championship, McLaren’s refusal to pit one or both of Piastri and Norris during the early caution flag in Qatar will go down as one of the worst strategic decisions in F1 history. And it would make Verstappen as just the second driver alongside Michael Schumacher in 2000 through 2004 to win five consecutive championships.
Norris, meanwhile, is going for his first championship. He'd be the first McLaren driver since Lewis Hamilton in 2008 to win the driver's title.
Piastri also has a shot at the championship, though his chances are pretty minuscule. Piastri trails Norris by 16 points and Verstappen by four points, If Piastri wins the race, he has to have Norris finish sixth or worse.
If neither Piastri or Norris wins the championship, McLaren will be the first team in F1 history to win back-to-back constructor's titles without a driver's title in that same span.
The betting odds strongly favor a Norris championship, even if Verstappen is the favorite to win. Norris is -300 to win the title at BetMGM, while Verstappen is at +250 and Piastri’s odds are 12-1. Verstappen is +120 to win the race ahead of Norris at +225 and Piastri at +350.
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