Expectations for Ayton's Rookie year

Discussion in 'Phoenix Suns' started by Hoop Head, Jul 31, 2018.

  1. Hoop Head

    Hoop Head Señor Caca Cabeza Contributor

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    What sort of numbers do people think Ayton will post in his rookie year? I've seen a lot of projections but I thought I'd start a thread to gather them in 1 place. I decided against making a poll because trying to come up with scoring averages was easy enough but matching those with rebound projections was a bit harder. Adding in blocks per game would have been difficult. So people can just post what they think he'll average and they can add more info to it if they feel it's necessary. There's more that can be predicted also, like rookie awards and participation in All-Star weekend in the Rising Stars game.

    I'm also curious how others view him in regards to the rookie of the year race. Do you think he's a favorite for that award? If not a favorite, who do you think will be in the running for it? How many Rookie of the Month awards will he win this season, if any? Will he finish 1st or 2nd Team All Rookie?


    I think he'll probably average about 15 & 8 on around 28-32 minutes a game. He'll probably start the season averaging around 25-30 minutes a game and that will go up as the season goes on and he gets more comfortable playing. I don't think he'll make a huge defensive impact this year and will probably only average 1-1.5 blocks a game. I think he'll get at least 1 Rookie of the Month award and be in the All-Star Weekend Rookie/Sophomore game but I'm not sure about Rookie of the Year. If he stays healthy he'll make the 1st Rookie team but I think the Suns will need to be close to 500 for him to get Rookie of the Year.

    He'll compete with Doncic, Trae Young, and Collin Sexton for that this year. I think Sexton or Young will win it because they're both in position to put up crazy numbers on their teams and that will help them stand out more than Ayton. Averaging close to 20ppg with 6 or 7 assists per game will look better to the voters than Ayton's points and rebounds. That's why he'd have to help the Suns reach 500 or so to get more recognition.
     
  2. ozzfloyd

    ozzfloyd The Carp

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    18/10/1.5
     
  3. Raindog

    Raindog Registered

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    19/11/1.8

    Yes, he will probably win a couple rookie of the months honors. Not sure about ROY because as you say there are some guys on teams with literally no one else to compete for scoring opportunities who are going to probably put up higher scoring numbers. I think Ayton is probably in top three for ROY though.
     
  4. Chaplin

    Chaplin Better off silent

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    I think 19/11/1.8 pretty much GUARANTEES ROY.

    I think 15/8 is more likely.
     
  5. Raindog

    Raindog Registered

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    Maybe - but I can see Young or Sexton (or maybe even someone else) putting up 23-24 ppg (because no one else on their teams gets near as many shots) and getting enough buzz to take the award... particularly if Ayton is overshadowed to some extent by Booker.
     
  6. cheesebeef

    cheesebeef Registered User Contributor

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    13/8 sounds about right to me.

    I have no idea who makes second most impact. Warren puts up points but makes zero impact, IMO. A little worried about Josh after summer league. I still have high hopes for him, but his jumper looks just as atrocious as it did last season. Was hoping to see signs of life there. I think Bridges will be good eventually but not make a huge splash this season. Ariza will help the mental game of the team more than anything. i expect nothing from Knight.
     
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  7. Covert Rain

    Covert Rain Father smelt of elderberries!

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    He averaged 20.1 Pts, 11.3 Reb, 1.6 Assists and 1.9 blocks.

    I am thinking at this level he will average 15 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1 assist and 1 block. They won't need him to score as much on this team and I am not sure he is going to have the heavy minutes his rookie season so his other box score opportunities might be limited.

    If he could become a legit 20 and 11 guy at the NBA level while playing good defense? Watch out league. Defense will still be his biggest question mark at this level.
     
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  8. Carolinacacti

    Carolinacacti Registered

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    Rookie of the year
     
  9. TJ

    TJ Suge White

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    18/10/2/2. Probably has a rough first month, but figures it out by December
     
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  10. Hoop Head

    Hoop Head Señor Caca Cabeza Contributor

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    Glad you posted his numbers from college. I knew they were something like 20 & 10 but wasn't certain. His rebounding in college was good but that's part of why I can't see him averaging a double double out the gate in the NBA. Rebounding does translate to the next level fairly well but I just can't see him posting the same amount of rebounds in college as his rookie year in the NBA.
     
  11. BC867

    BC867 Long time Phoenician! Contributor

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    I don't expect Rookie of the Year stats from Ayton, especially if the "facilitators" don't develop a routine for getting him the ball in good position and teammates not alleviating double teams.

    Especially in votes compared to the others rookies mentioned. But ROY doesn't matter. Wins matter, vs. individual stats.

    I do expect him to build to the presence in the post for a strength the Suns have seldom had, as a consistent scorer and rebounder. Emphasis on consistent.
     
  12. Chris_Sanders

    Chris_Sanders Super Moderator Contributor

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    My heart says he should do what KAT did and average 21 and 11. My head says big men struggle in year one so 14 and 8. I will split the difference and says 17 and 9
     
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  13. JCSunsfan

    JCSunsfan Registered User

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    13 and 11. C'mon guys, those expectations are a bit high I think. Amare only had like 13 and 9 or something his rookie year.
     
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  14. Hoop Head

    Hoop Head Señor Caca Cabeza Contributor

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    Amare averaged 13.5 ppg and 8.8 rpg with 1.1 blocks and shooting 47.2% from the field in 31.3 minutes a game. He was rookie of the year that season also, beating out Yao Ming. I remember the hype for Yao coming into the league. He wasn't a bust but he wasn't as dominant as he was hyped. Yao averaged 13.5 ppg with 8.2 rpg, 1.8 blocks, and shot 49.8% from the field in 29 minutes a game as a rookie also. I didn't realize they put up such similar numbers as rookies. The Suns making the playoffs and the Rockets just missing them is probably what tipped things in Amare's favor for ROY voting.

    Expecting Ayton to do better than them isn't too much, IMO. The game is played quicker now and he has some solid teammates that should help him keep from being doubled often. The league is also a lot smaller now. Ayton will have a size advantage against a lot of opponents and when it's not that much of an advantage he'll have an athletic advantage against stiffs like the Alex Len's of the league.
     
  15. iRobot

    iRobot Registered

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    Lot o' double doubles and few blocks.
     

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