Expectations for Ayton's Rookie year

[Hoop Head]

What sort of numbers do people think Ayton will post in his rookie year? I've seen a lot of projections but I thought I'd start a thread to gather them in 1 place. I decided against making a poll because trying to come up with scoring averages was easy enough but matching those with rebound projections was a bit harder. Adding in blocks per game would have been difficult. So people can just post what they think he'll average and they can add more info to it if they feel it's necessary. There's more that can be predicted also, like rookie awards and participation in All-Star weekend in the Rising Stars game.

I'm also curious how others view him in regards to the rookie of the year race. Do you think he's a favorite for that award? If not a favorite, who do you think will be in the running for it? How many Rookie of the Month awards will he win this season, if any? Will he finish 1st or 2nd Team All Rookie?


I think he'll probably average about 15 & 8 on around 28-32 minutes a game. He'll probably start the season averaging around 25-30 minutes a game and that will go up as the season goes on and he gets more comfortable playing. I don't think he'll make a huge defensive impact this year and will probably only average 1-1.5 blocks a game. I think he'll get at least 1 Rookie of the Month award and be in the All-Star Weekend Rookie/Sophomore game but I'm not sure about Rookie of the Year. If he stays healthy he'll make the 1st Rookie team but I think the Suns will need to be close to 500 for him to get Rookie of the Year.

He'll compete with Doncic, Trae Young, and Collin Sexton for that this year. I think Sexton or Young will win it because they're both in position to put up crazy numbers on their teams and that will help them stand out more than Ayton. Averaging close to 20ppg with 6 or 7 assists per game will look better to the voters than Ayton's points and rebounds. That's why he'd have to help the Suns reach 500 or so to get more recognition.

 

[ozzfloyd]

18/10/1.5

 

[Raindog]

19/11/1.8

Yes, he will probably win a couple rookie of the months honors. Not sure about ROY because as you say there are some guys on teams with literally no one else to compete for scoring opportunities who are going to probably put up higher scoring numbers. I think Ayton is probably in top three for ROY though.

 

[Chaplin]

19/11/1.8

Yes, he will probably win a couple rookie of the months honors. Not sure about ROY because as you say there are some guys on teams with literally no one else to compete for scoring opportunities who are going to probably put up higher scoring numbers. I think Ayton is probably in top three for ROY though.

I think 19/11/1.8 pretty much GUARANTEES ROY.

I think 15/8 is more likely.

 

[Raindog]

I think 19/11/1.8 pretty much GUARANTEES ROY.

I think 15/8 is more likely.

Maybe - but I can see Young or Sexton (or maybe even someone else) putting up 23-24 ppg (because no one else on their teams gets near as many shots) and getting enough buzz to take the award... particularly if Ayton is overshadowed to some extent by Booker.

 

[Cheesebeef]

13/8 sounds about right to me.

I have no idea who makes second most impact. Warren puts up points but makes zero impact, IMO. A little worried about Josh after summer league. I still have high hopes for him, but his jumper looks just as atrocious as it did last season. Was hoping to see signs of life there. I think Bridges will be good eventually but not make a huge splash this season. Ariza will help the mental game of the team more than anything. i expect nothing from Knight.

 

[Covert Rain]

He averaged 20.1 Pts, 11.3 Reb, 1.6 Assists and 1.9 blocks.

I am thinking at this level he will average 15 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1 assist and 1 block. They won't need him to score as much on this team and I am not sure he is going to have the heavy minutes his rookie season so his other box score opportunities might be limited.

If he could become a legit 20 and 11 guy at the NBA level while playing good defense? Watch out league. Defense will still be his biggest question mark at this level.

 

[Carolinacacti]

Rookie of the year

 

[TJ]

18/10/2/2. Probably has a rough first month, but figures it out by December

 

[Hoop Head]

He averaged 20.1 Pts, 11.3 Reb, 1.6 Assists and 1.9 blocks.

I am thinking at this level he will average 15 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 1 assist and 1 block. They won't need him to score as much on this team and I am not sure he is going to have the heavy minutes his rookie season so his other box score opportunities might be limited.

If he could become a legit 20 and 11 guy at the NBA level while playing good defense? Watch out league. Defense will still be his biggest question mark at this level.

Glad you posted his numbers from college. I knew they were something like 20 & 10 but wasn't certain. His rebounding in college was good but that's part of why I can't see him averaging a double double out the gate in the NBA. Rebounding does translate to the next level fairly well but I just can't see him posting the same amount of rebounds in college as his rookie year in the NBA.

 

[BC867]

I don't expect Rookie of the Year stats from Ayton, especially if the "facilitators" don't develop a routine for getting him the ball in good position and teammates not alleviating double teams.

Especially in votes compared to the others rookies mentioned. But ROY doesn't matter. Wins matter, vs. individual stats.

I do expect him to build to the presence in the post for a strength the Suns have seldom had, as a consistent scorer and rebounder. Emphasis on consistent.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

My heart says he should do what KAT did and average 21 and 11. My head says big men struggle in year one so 14 and 8. I will split the difference and says 17 and 9

 

[JCSunsfan]

13 and 11. C'mon guys, those expectations are a bit high I think. Amare only had like 13 and 9 or something his rookie year.

 

[Hoop Head]

13 and 11. C'mon guys, those expectations are a bit high I think. Amare only had like 13 and 9 or something his rookie year.

Amare averaged 13.5 ppg and 8.8 rpg with 1.1 blocks and shooting 47.2% from the field in 31.3 minutes a game. He was rookie of the year that season also, beating out Yao Ming. I remember the hype for Yao coming into the league. He wasn't a bust but he wasn't as dominant as he was hyped. Yao averaged 13.5 ppg with 8.2 rpg, 1.8 blocks, and shot 49.8% from the field in 29 minutes a game as a rookie also. I didn't realize they put up such similar numbers as rookies. The Suns making the playoffs and the Rockets just missing them is probably what tipped things in Amare's favor for ROY voting.

Expecting Ayton to do better than them isn't too much, IMO. The game is played quicker now and he has some solid teammates that should help him keep from being doubled often. The league is also a lot smaller now. Ayton will have a size advantage against a lot of opponents and when it's not that much of an advantage he'll have an athletic advantage against stiffs like the Alex Len's of the league.

 

[iRobot]

Lot o' double doubles and few blocks.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I’m calling 14p, 8.5r, 1.5a, 1b

I think he will be first team all rookie

Will play in rookie/soph game

Will win rookie of the month award twice

Might be rookie of the year (people thinking young or someone else is averaging 23-24 pets per game as a rookie are way off imo).

 

[Finito]

I think 13ppg 8 rpg

Is a nice year.

He's not going to come close to averaging 20 I think people are forgetting WE DONT HAVE ANYONE TO GET HIM THE BALL. Lol

Unless they trade for a real legit NBA point guard who's gonna be making the entry passes? Who's gonna be throwing lobs? Who's gonna find him when he's running the floor. A lot of easy buckets are going to be left on the table for him because we don't really have anyone that can make it easy for him

 

[BC867]

I think 13ppg 8 rpg

Is a nice year.

He's not going to come close to averaging 20 I think people are forgetting WE DONT HAVE ANYONE TO GET HIM THE BALL. Lol

Unless they trade for a real legit NBA point guard who's gonna be making the entry passes? Who's gonna be throwing lobs? Who's gonna find him when he's running the floor. A lot of easy buckets are going to be left on the table for him because we don't really have anyone that can make it easy for him

That's the variable! Until we see, who can really predict?

 

[Errntknght]

I don't have much of any expectations about his offensive numbers. I imagine they are going to depend a lot on how Igor deploys him. What I'm most hoping for is that he'll enjoy anchoring good team defense. That goes for the whole team - I hope they are proud of their D and delight in making the right defensive moves. Just nailing their rotations and helping when it's needed - and only them. Heck, I want every guy to hate being the one that let the D break down. We have enough good defenders to harass opponents wire-to-wire.
Scorers like Book and TJ won't become menaces on defense but if they make sure they know where they supposed to be and get there on time, that will be enough. Enough to make the team one of the top defending teams in the league.

We could wind up making the playoffs - like Horny's first year we could be gifted a bunch of early games due to the suprise factor and toward the end they should be jelling enough to win games on merit.

 

[SirStefan32]

My expectations are low. Traditionally, big men take a while to figure it out. I think he will struggle with foul trouble and not be able to play more than 20-24 minutes per game. 12 and 7, 13 and 8 is what I think he'll average, but I don't really care about his numbers. I want to see him play better defense, not commit stupid fouls, play within the system, not force things, continue to improve his passing, learn how to post up, etc. Points and rebounds will come.

 

[Phrazbit]

17-9, puts up numbers but inefficient early on but he figures that out after a couple months.

I do think about once every 4 or 5 games he is going to have some real stinkers, consistency takes a while to develop. This board should be... fun... during those games.

But what will be real exciting is that nights where he drops 30 and 15, and mauls some opposition front court, which I think he will have a few of.

 

[Hoop Head]

FWIW, in 4 Summer League games he averaged 14.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 1.00 blocks per game in 26.5 minutes a game while shooting 59.5% from the field. Games were only 40 minutes and that played part in him not playing more but it does give a little idea of what might be expected. He was one of 7 players to average a double double in the SL but he only had 2 double doubles in the 4 games played.

I linked to the boxscores for each game, just click on the other team's name and it should pull that up if you want to see other stats from those games.

Vs the Mavericks he had 10 & 8 in game 1 in 22 minutes
Vs the Kings he had 21 & 12 in game 2 in 29 minutes
Vs the Magic he had 17 & 13 in game 3 in 25 minutes
Vs the 76ers he had 10 & 9 in game 4 in 30 minutes

 

[BC867]

FWIW, in 4 Summer League games he averaged 14.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 1.00 blocks per game in 26.5 minutes a game while shooting 59.5% from the field. Games were only 40 minutes and that played part in him not playing more but it does give a little idea of what might be expected. He was one of 7 players to average a double double in the SL but he only had 2 double doubles in the 4 games played.

I linked to the boxscores for each game, just click on the other team's name and it should pull that up if you want to see other stats from those games.

Vs the Mavericks he had 10 & 8 in game 1 in 22 minutes
Vs the Kings he had 21 & 12 in game 2 in 29 minutes
Vs the Magic he had 17 & 13 in game 3 in 25 minutes
Vs the 76ers he had 10 & 9 in game 4 in 30 minutes

Double figures in all four games and 8, 9, 12 and 13 boards, with the two lowest combos in his first professional game and in the fourth game -- with no established team chemistry during the exhibition series and no NBA calibre Point Guard . . . .

Yup, that spells o-p-t-i-m-i-s-m.

 

[Shaggy]

I'm thinking 16/9/2/2

 

[Carolinacacti]

Suns have three rookie of the year winners and soon to be 4. Just the turn around in wins will get ayton some votes. Not many centers win but unless the rookie center for the Bulls goes crazy, ayton can win.