Draft - one week out - what do the Cardinals do with #4?

What do the Cards do with #4

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Chris_Sanders

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You could read this as them wanting to move up from 27 as well.

Possibly and I just saw a mock that was the absolute worst that did it. I think it was PFN.

We traded down from 4 to the Vikings and the 11, 23, and 27

Then we traded back with Atlanta at #8 giving up the 11 and 35 to take Nabers

Then we gave up the 23, the 27, and 106 to move back up and take Terrion Arnold.

Leaving them no picks until round 3 and all they got out of it was Nabers, Arnold, and a future first.
 

BritCard

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I'd rank them in this order,

1. Trade back with Vikings, Broncos, Raiders depending who is on the board. They will only do this for a huge overpay.
2. Trade back with the Giants and draft Odunze. Again for a huge overpay for only moving back 2 spots.
3. Stay and pick MHJ.

I don't think the top 3 is necessarily going to play out like people think and I think there is going to be too much interest in #4 for Monti to turn down.
 

football karma

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How did that work out for us this year? Oh, 27th not top 10.

And I think everyone here forgets how quickly things change. “Giants have next to nothing going for them” but were in the playoffs a long long time ago (2022).

This is magic beans doing their hypnotism work.

the flip side "hypnosis" is the belief that pre-draft rankings in the media are precise (or worse, our own evaluation of prospects, LOL) -- even though actual draft experience shows that even the people who draft for a living often get the rankings wrong with a pretty large variance.

obvs: peoples views are set -- so only three more days until the argument shifts to if the players taken will be any good
 

QuebecCard

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I'd rank them in this order,

1. Trade back with Vikings, Broncos, Raiders depending who is on the board. They will only do this for a huge overpay.
2. Trade back with the Giants and draft Odunze. Again for a huge overpay for only moving back 2 spots.
3. Stay and pick MHJ.

I don't think the top 3 is necessarily going to play out like people think and I think there is going to be too much interest in #4 for Monti to turn down.

Here are my thoughts.

I think MONTI wants his cake and eat it too, so to speak.

In other words, a move down is contingent on a deal with the LACs to return to #5 and select MHJ.

If he traded with the GIANTS for, let's say, a two in 2024 and a two in 2025, he'd be willing to give the Chargers a #3 (maybe a #2) in this year's draft to move up one spot. And if he traded with the Vikings for #11, #23 and a first in 2025, he'd be willing to give up #11, #27 and, let's say, #104 to get up to #5.

In the first case, the CARDS net two second-round drafts from the GIANTS, but if the price to move up to #5 is a second-rounder this year, the CARDS have netted an extra #2 in 2025.

In the second, they've improved their second selection in the first round by four spots and garnered an extra first-round pick in 2025.

If the LACs can't be convinced in advance, MONTI selects MHJ at #4.

P.S. I believe that Mike Bidwill wants his FITZ of the future, and that's MHJ.
 

Krangodnzr

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I'd rank them in this order,

1. Trade back with Vikings, Broncos, Raiders depending who is on the board. They will only do this for a huge overpay.
2. Trade back with the Giants and draft Odunze. Again for a huge overpay for only moving back 2 spots.
3. Stay and pick MHJ.

I don't think the top 3 is necessarily going to play out like people think and I think there is going to be too much interest in #4 for Monti to turn down.
I think the biggest variable is what happens with the QBs. If for example, McCarthy goes in the top three, #4 becomes an extremely valuable pick.

Probably in upwards of 3 #1s and 2-3 #2s. If I'm Monti, I'm not moving without that kind of haul, unless it's the Giants. The Giants I would move down for just a #2 if I know I'm still getting Harrison Jr.
 

kerouac9

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the flip side "hypnosis" is the belief that pre-draft rankings in the media are precise (or worse, our own evaluation of prospects, LOL) -- even though actual draft experience shows that even the people who draft for a living often get the rankings wrong with a pretty large variance.

obvs: peoples views are set -- so only three more days until the argument shifts to if the players taken will be any good

Pre draft rankings around the top 10 are usually pretty good -- if you look post-combine and pre-content monster. It's after the elite/top group of prospects shakes out that people start wondering what's going on.

I think the biggest variable is what happens with the QBs. If for example, McCarthy goes in the top three, #4 becomes an extremely valuable pick.

Probably in upwards of 3 #1s and 2-3 #2s. If I'm Monti, I'm not moving without that kind of haul, unless it's the Giants. The Giants I would move down for just a #2 if I know I'm still getting Harrison Jr.

Will Levis was a consensus top 5 picks at this time last year among the "experts". The content creators get so wrapped around their narratives that they forget what they were saying to chase clicks.
 

RON_IN_OC

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Here are my thoughts.

I think MONTI wants his cake and eat it too, so to speak.

In other words, a move down is contingent on a deal with the LACs to return to #5 and select MHJ.

If he traded with the GIANTS for, let's say, a two in 2024 and a two in 2025, he'd be willing to give the Chargers a #3 (maybe a #2) in this year's draft to move up one spot. And if he traded with the Vikings for #11, #23 and a first in 2025, he'd be willing to give up #11, #27 and, let's say, #104 to get up to #5.

In the first case, the CARDS net two second-round drafts from the GIANTS, but if the price to move up to #5 is a second-rounder this year, the CARDS have netted an extra #2 in 2025.

In the second, they've improved their second selection in the first round by four spots and garnered an extra first-round pick in 2025.

If the LACs can't be convinced in advance, MONTI selects MHJ at #4.

P.S. I believe that Mike Bidwill wants his FITZ of the future, and that's MHJ.
I think Monti only moves if Minny secures the #8 from Atlanta with the tampering case.

Most likely that ends up a pick swap with #11, but because they are saying the Cousins tampering was so severe, I wouldn't be super shocked if ATL just had to surrender #8 to Minny out right. That would be insane, but would send the ultimate message to he rest of the league how tampering is getting out of hand.
 

kerouac9

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I think Monti only moves if Minny secures the #8 from Atlanta with the tampering case.

Most likely that ends up a pick swap with #11, but because they are saying the Cousins tampering was so severe, I wouldn't be super shocked if ATL just had to surrender #8 to Minny out right. That would be insane, but would send the ultimate message to he rest of the league how tampering is getting out of hand.
According to the DraftTek Value chart, that penalty would equate to surrendering a high third-round pick.

It's not even clear what the tampering activities were.
 

Krangodnzr

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Pre draft rankings around the top 10 are usually pretty good -- if you look post-combine and pre-content monster. It's after the elite/top group of prospects shakes out that people start wondering what's going on.



Will Levis was a consensus top 5 picks at this time last year among the "experts". The content creators get so wrapped around their narratives that they forget what they were saying to chase clicks.
I don't think McCarthy actually goes top five. I think Harbaugh has been working his extensive network to push the narrative that his former signal caller should and will go top five because that really helps his current team.
 

QuebecCard

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I think Monti only moves if Minny secures the #8 from Atlanta with the tampering case.

Most likely that ends up a pick swap with #11, but because they are saying the Cousins tampering was so severe, I wouldn't be super shocked if ATL just had to surrender #8 to Minny out right. That would be insane, but would send the ultimate message to he rest of the league how tampering is getting out of hand.

It could very well be, but my point is that Monti isn't leaving round #1 without MHJ in tow.
 

Krangodnzr

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State Radio put our chances of staying out and taking MHJ at… 20-25%.
My honest take is that I won't be happy about this unless the Cardinals walk away with Odunze or Nabers and a butt load of picks.

Even if it's Odunze and a 1st and a 3rd, I'll be annoyed .
 

JD Robertson

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MHJ was the top WR going into the college season. He had a crap QB getting him the ball and had the highest rate of double teams this year. Odunze had 2 more top WR on his team with a QB that some say now might go late 1st to mid 2nd round. Nabors had a QB who is most likely going 2 overall. I will take MHJ everyday and be happy about it. If he doesn't live up to the hype or the other guys are better, then I just tip my hat and say oh well. I got the best WR prospect to come out in a long time and it just didn't work out. I can live with that. I couldn't live with us trading and then MHJ goes somewhere else and is the best of them all.
 

GimmedaBall

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Hey I resemble that. I'm 64...
Don't mind Chris. He's just mad because his Baby Boomer parents made him pack up his video games and comic book collection and move out of their basement. He's living in a van down by the River. The red one with a hand-painted Cardinal logo on the side that looks more like a drunken Woody Woodpecker than an angry Red Bird.
 

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