Betting the Big 12: Week 2

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Last week sure was a week of football. The best part of Week 1 is that we have real games to analyze and real overreactions to make heading into Week 2. This is the biggest test for gamblers, and maybe the best opportunity to build up some units. The key here is to decide what what is real and what is not from last week, and when to trust the public. Before I get into picks this week, I want to take a look at the biggest headlines from the Big 12, and play a game of overreaction or not, based on what I saw last week. Without further ado, here we go.

1) Iowa State and Utah are on a collision course for the Big 12 Championship game


Verdict: Overreaction. Utah looked incredible against UCLA, pretty much exactly what I expected them to be at their best. The offensive line and running game are the real deal. Devon Dampier is a perfect QB for the system they are running this year. Iowa State has the leg up on the conference as of right now, and they were not affected by the travel back from Dublin at all. However, a couple of other teams flashed last week. These are the deserved top 2 in everyone’s power rankings right now, but TCU, Texas Tech, Arizona State, and a whole host of others are going to be heard from.


2) Kansas State is in trouble

Verdict: Overreaction. I just think there is something psychological that happens to the team that comes home from Dublin after a loss. Everyone wants to bury K-State after struggling with North Dakota, but I am not surprised that happened. Avery Johnson is playing at a high level right now, and I am choosing to give them a mulligan for last week.

3) Baylor’s defense is going to hold them back

Verdict: Not an overreaction. Dave Aranda might have a problem on his hands. Baylor has an offense that can score, but they got bullied up front by Auburn. When I see the other key contenders in the conference, a physical running game stands out. If Baylor can’t stop the run, they will not win a lot of games.

4) Josh Hoover is the best QB in the Big 12

Verdict: Overreaction. Have these pundits seen Rocco Becht play? In all seriousness, that was cathartic for Big 12 fans to watch TCU smoke the Fighting Belichicks. Josh Hoover is awesome, but he hasn’t separated himself from Becht, Dampier, Johnson, or Jalon Daniels yet.

5) This is Mike Gundy’s last year at Oklahoma State

Verdict: Not an overreaction. The vibes in Stillwater are, to put it mildly, not great. It’s been one game and the starting QB is hurt, Gundy is still complaining about money, and they won’t be favored in a game for awhile. I just don’t see it happening unless the backup QB has a Brock Purdy-like rise out of nowhere.

6) The Big 12 is a 1 bid league for the CFP

Verdict: Overreaction. Hey, Tom Fornelli, learn ball.

And a bonus for our friends to the east!

7) Mark Gronowski is Cade McNamara with a higher salary

Verdict: Not an overreaction. Did you see him hold the ball forever, miss open receivers, and play terribly yet again in that offense? It was hilarious. I’ll almost definitely eat these words on Saturday.

THE GAMES​

Iowa (1-0) at #16 Iowa State (2-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FOX | The Line: Iowa State -3 | O/U: 41.5

It defies logic, but as badly as I want to bet on the Cyclones, I just can’t do it. CyHawk is predetermined to be a low scoring slog. I’ve had plenty to say about this game already this week, but here’s where my head is: Iowa State wins, but the best place to wager any money is on a 24-17 type game.

Pick:Under 41.5


Baylor (0-1) at #17 SMU (1-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: CW | The Line: SMU -2.5 | O/U: 64.5

Fishiest line of the week right here. Baylor looked bad against Auburn. SMU is nationally ranked and at home. Why are they only favored by 2.5 points? Something doesn’t seem right. Fade the public, which I expect to be all over SMU here.

Pick: Baylor +2.5


Kent State (1-0) at #24 Texas Tech (1-0)

Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: TNT | The Line: Texas Tech -48.5 | O/U: 58.5

This has to be some kind of record for most points I’ll ever recommend laying, but Kent State just broke a 20+ game losing streak by beating Merrimack(?) by 4 points last week, on a kickoff return TD in the 4th quarter. This is not a good team. Tech is going to roll.

Pick: Texas Tech -48.5


Kansas (2-0) at Missouri (1-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Missouri -6.5 | O/U: 50.5

I like the offenses here. Kansas hasn’t faced a defensive challenge yet, and Mizzou settled on a QB with Beau Pribula. As long as Jalon Daniels is healthy, I expect points. I love that this game is being played at all, and I think the Jayhawks are a live dog here. This is a great game to throw on in the window after a CyHawk win.

Pick: Over 50.5


Oklahoma State (1-0) at #6 Oregon (1-0)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: CBS | The Line: Oregon -29.5 | O/U: 56.5

For all the reasons stated above, things for Gundy are just not great. I think the analysis is as simple as that. 29.5 is a crazy amount of points, but I’d hate to have an OSU ticket when they are down 28-0 in the 2nd quarter.

Pick: Oregon -29.5


Bowling Green (1-0) at Cincinnati (0-1)

Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Cincinnati -21.5 | O/U: 46.5

What did I learn about Cincinnati last week? The passing offense is a real question mark. Sorsby scrambling was the only way they could move the ball. Bowling Green with coach Eddie George (really!) didn’t put up an offensive masterclass in their opener. I’m banking on Cincy trying to work some stuff out with the passing offense that won’t be in sync yet, which will limit the points they can score.

Pick: Under 46.5


Delaware (1-0) at Colorado (0-1)

Kickoff: | TV: FOX | The Line: Colorado -23.5 | O/U: 50.5

I’m just kind of throwing my hands up here. Colorado didn’t exactly teach me anything last week. I actually thought they played pretty well, but Deion might just start a new QB for no reason here. I think the Buffs win this game, but asking them to lay 24 points right now is a big ask.

Pick: Delaware +23.5


West Virginia (1-0) at Ohio (0-1)

Kickoff: 3:00pm | TV: ESPNU | The Line: West Virginia -3.5 | O/U: 60.5

Oh no, West Virginia, what are you doing? Hasn’t anyone learned this is a bad idea? Don’t go to Athens. Don’t let Parker Navarro run all over you.

Pick: Ohio +3.5


Army (0-1) at Kansas State (1-1)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: Kansas State -17.5 | O/U: 46.5

Alright, K-State, you got your mulligan last week. You’ve been home for 2 weeks now, and Army just lost to Tarleton State. The troops might be taking a step back this year. This is the time for a statement and to make Iowa State’s Farm O’Geddon win look good.

Pick: Kansas State -17.5


Houston (1-0) at Rice (1-0)

Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN+ | The Line: Houston -14 | O/U: 39.5

A hard game to pick, but mostly I’d recommend watching this game for Rice’s offense. They are running the triple option that Davidson used for years at the FCS level. It’s weird and fun and a must watch for a little bit.

Pick: Houston -14


#12 Arizona State (1-0) at Mississippi State (1-0)

Kickoff: 6:30pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Arizona State -6.5 | O/U: 58.5

I’ve circled this game as an irrational “I believe this upset is happening” pick since maybe June. It’s nothing against Arizona State, even though I do think they take a step back without Cam Skattebo. This is a weird road trip. Mississippi State will be fired up here, and this strikes me as a game where ASU falls behind early. Say what you will about the SEC, they have quality players on the lines.

Pick: Mississippi State +6.5


Stanford (0-1) at BYU (1-0)

Kickoff: 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: BYU -20.5 | O/U: 46.5

This might feel like a lot of points for Bear Bachmeier in his first start against an FBS opponent, but don’t be fooled. Stanford is the worst P4 team this year. BYU will be solid defensively and Stanford will not be able to score enough points to keep up here.

Pick: BYU -20.5


BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY

Texas -36.5 vs San Jose State

This is a spot where Arch Manning will excel, at home against a bad G5 school. Inevitably this will launch him back into the Heisman race, for some unknown reason. We all know it’s going to happen this way, so might as well profit from it.


Enjoy the games!

Season Record: 4-4 (-0.4 units)

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