Bear market thread

Discussion in 'Politics and Religion' started by Western Font, Mar 16, 2020.

  1. Rivercard

    Rivercard Too much good stuff

    Posts:
    20,354
    Likes Received:
    3,909
    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2003
    Location:
    Is everything
    Mnuchin says "these numbers are not relevant". Unbelievable.
     
  2. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

    Age:
    51
    Posts:
    26,233
    Likes Received:
    11,111
    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2002
    Location:
    SoCal
    He should be forced to face a line of the 3.3 million (they have nothing else to do). And make that statement to each one of them. Let’s see how many punch him in the face.
     
  3. Rivercard

    Rivercard Too much good stuff

    Posts:
    20,354
    Likes Received:
    3,909
    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2003
    Location:
    Is everything
    Looks like you are right. Dow up 900 right now despite the horrific unemployment numbers just released.
     
  4. Luciano

    Luciano Registered

    Age:
    40
    Posts:
    1,039
    Likes Received:
    693
    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2017
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Ok you guys that are all savvy investors.

    Let's say I want to do a Robinhood competition against my brother and some friends where we all put 100$ and see who comes on top, what stock should I buy ?
    No timeline, just bragging rights every 6 months or so.
     
  5. TheCardFan

    TheCardFan Things have changed.

    Age:
    51
    Posts:
    7,010
    Likes Received:
    3,606
    Joined:
    May 14, 2002
    Location:
    Charlotte
    Boeing but a week ago. :)
     
    Luciano likes this.
  6. Western Font

    Western Font Registered

    Age:
    44
    Posts:
    877
    Likes Received:
    586
    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2018
    Location:
    via Arizona
    I would have guessed it would go down slightly today, but looks like Folster was right that the jobless numbers were already priced in, at least for now. Medium-term I have no idea...
     
  7. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

    Age:
    54
    Posts:
    59,420
    Likes Received:
    6,398
    Joined:
    May 14, 2002
    I think he's one of those people who just doesn't know how to say bad things in a way that shows any compassion. I think what he means is the jobless numbers are completely connected to the virus, not anything else so he considers it irrelevant because we knew the number was going to be high. I disagree, and he should have said it differently, but I don't think he meant it doesn't count, he just worded it horribly.

    CNBC said that he also said something about it that Trump apparently echoed, it's mostly California, as if that was an excuse, they're on their own not our fault. The reason it's mostly california is population, and because California did shelter in place first. We did it days and in some cases weeks before other places did.

    On a weekly team meeting this morning my boss told us my building did shelter in place on Friday the 13th. By Monday morning the company that does the cafeterias for my building, and the Sunnyvale and Santa Clara buildings, had furloughed or laid off every single employee in the cafeterias and administrative functions! They intend to hire people back, but right now they furloughed them so they can try and get unemployment quicker.

    I was texting one of them she's ran the cafeteria in my building, she said she filed for unemployment right away and I think should get her first deposit as early as tomorrow(it's done on a debit card now). She is also applying for work at grocery stores, amazon delivery etc, all the essential functions that are at high risk. She says if/when I get an offer, I then have to make the decision because she often babysits her grandkid for her daughter and she's afraid if she takes a high risk high social contact job right now, she'll be unable to safely babysit.
     
  8. Ouchie-Z-Clown

    Ouchie-Z-Clown I'm better than Mulli!

    Age:
    51
    Posts:
    26,233
    Likes Received:
    11,111
    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2002
    Location:
    SoCal
    Lol. Is it really bragging rights if you got the picks from others???
     
  9. Folster

    Folster The system doesn't work.

    Age:
    37
    Posts:
    8,136
    Likes Received:
    1,465
    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    Unless there is a company you've always wanted to own and you can get it for a smoking deal, I'm a fan of the safer approach of buying the whole market when it's down or a similar broad index. It's hard to go wrong with a total US market fund like VTI or ITOT or if you want strictly large caps right now, VOO or IVV.

    For those who want a lot of exposure to the big tech oriented companies, QQQ is great as it tracks the NASDAQ 100 and gives you over 10% exposure to Microsoft and Apple. About 8.5% in Amazon and Google. It has a strong track record, but is obviously more volatile.
     
    Russ Smith likes this.
  10. Luciano

    Luciano Registered

    Age:
    40
    Posts:
    1,039
    Likes Received:
    693
    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2017
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    I'm used to win. Anything to win !
    So much winning, the best winning ever !
     
    Ouchie-Z-Clown likes this.
  11. AZCB34

    AZCB34 Registered User

    Age:
    52
    Posts:
    11,008
    Likes Received:
    2,126
    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2002
    Location:
    Mesa, AZ
    Those numbers won't be horrific in a month which is why the markets went up. I am betting they thought the number world have been higher this time around. I never saw any estimates of what was expected.
     
  12. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

    Age:
    54
    Posts:
    59,420
    Likes Received:
    6,398
    Joined:
    May 14, 2002

    Some were saying 6 to 7 million was possible. But remember there was a story out a few days ago that Trump was actively telling people to do things to intentionally keep the unemployment numbers lower, I think it's sort of like how companies manipulate earnings into a particular quarter, he wanted them to hold back on certain things so the unemployment numbers weren't even worse. That is it's probably quite a bit higher than what was announced.
     
  13. Russ Smith

    Russ Smith The Original Whizzinator Contributor

    Age:
    54
    Posts:
    59,420
    Likes Received:
    6,398
    Joined:
    May 14, 2002
    I didn't want to start a whole new thread over this so it's somewhat market related and also stimulus related.

    As mentioned in another thread I wound up owing about 3K in taxes for 2019, worked the whole year, sold company stock, and while we stayed with the same company, we changed investment advisors and the new one doing what we want sold a bunch of holdings that were up which created about 15K in capital gains. So I owed. Because I had the money and saw no point in delaying, I paid the taxes 3-4 weeks ago.

    Flash forward to today and I just checked, with just my salary and company stock my adjusted gross income was low enough to qualify for stimulus, not the full amount but some. But because of that capital gain for the change in advisors, I'm over the threshold and don't get any stimulus(pointed out before it's why not adjusting by state seems a bit unfair), my salary in California is not that high at all, but too high with the stock.

    But wait there's more. ordinarily you'd think that's ok, end of the year if the markets are still down you can write off the losses in the same account you got capital gains from in 2019, except of course to do that, you have to actually sell and realize the loss. I haven't looked but I'm highly skeptical she's sold much stock because like everyone else this is such a bizarre time she's figuring there will be a good market move second half of the year if we get past the virus problems and get the businesses opening up again. So unless I told her to sell to take a loss, she's probably not going to.

    If I had known what was coming, by not paying my taxes early, I'd have gotten the stimulus because if you haven't filed 2019, they use your 2018 taxes, I only worked about half the year so even with stock gains I'm under and would have got the full amount.

    So no stimulus, paid taxes, and likely won't get to write off the losses next year.
     
  14. Folster

    Folster The system doesn't work.

    Age:
    37
    Posts:
    8,136
    Likes Received:
    1,465
    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005

    Total Bummer.
     
  15. Kel Varnsen

    Kel Varnsen Moderator Contributor

    Age:
    42
    Posts:
    33,372
    Likes Received:
    11,961
    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2003
    Location:
    Phoenix
    Mortgage rates spiked for a while because lenders were overwhelmed, but they're coming back down. My credit union has a 15 year refii for 2.5% right now.
     

Share This Page