Arizona Cardinals Mandatory Mini Camp Week. 06/10/24-06/16/24

kerouac9

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Here you go. Last season data only. Clear positive trend line between TOP and rushes per game.

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It’s not about attempts. It’s rushing yardage and efficiency vs TOP.

Also, where is this chart from?
 

BritCard

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It’s not about attempts. It’s rushing yardage and efficiency vs TOP.

Also, where is this chart from?

I just made it.

I thought we were talking about TOP vs rushing attempts and you said there was no correlation?
 

oaken1

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It’s not about attempts. It’s rushing yardage and efficiency vs TOP.

Also, where is this chart from?
Rushing efficiency versus ToP is less effective I agree.

JC taking a hand-off, making a cut, and running 8 to 10 yards doesn't really take any more time off the clock than Kyler dropping five yards, making a read, and hitting Wilson for that same 8 to 10 yards.
But it does eliminate the possibility of clock stoppages due to incompletions...
For me...having an unstoppable rushing attack is less about T.o.P. and more about demoralizing dominance..the ToP is good...but crushing the hope and will to fight out of your opponents is much better.

Not to mention it puts opposing offenses in hurry up mode..trying to get confidence and hope for their team...which leads to mistake opportunities.
 

Stout

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Having a top running game is great! it opens up a lot for the offense, and that is key. It also helps you close out games. I'm not summarizing well, but hat is also as far as the running game gets you. If you can't excel at passing while having a great running game, you're going nowhere. That doesn't mean you need to lead the league in passing or anything, but you absolutely need the threat of an explosive downfield play, the ability to go all pass when you're a few scores down at the end of a game, and have your QB and offensive stars take over through the pass.
 

kerouac9

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Not sure what data you have shown, considering this is the data.

There's a 0.61 correlation coefficient which is considered strong.


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I already explained why this isn’t the analysis under consideration. Keep posting it tho.
 

BritCard

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I already explained why this isn’t the analysis under consideration. Keep posting it tho.

Weird because here's 3 times you argued in this thread that there is no correlation between TOP and rushing.

This is not factual

Murray throwing for 4k yards would be a good start.

I’ve done this multiple times; look up the top rushing teams vs TOP and you’ll find little correlation.

This is a vibes-based analysis. Show me the data.
 

kerouac9

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This is the original post I disagreed with:

That's the formula for this group to win a championship! Not Murray throwing for 5,000 yards!

It's not sexy but it controls the clock and keeps our defense fresh!

Vs PHI our defense was on the field for 20 out 60 minutes! Wow!

The assertion is that TOP is correlated to wins, which I’ve already shown is not the case.

The point he’s agreeing with is the EPA/rushing attempt is correlated to winning. I don’t like EPA/play because it seems like a derivative of a derivative.

If we don’t like wins, let’s use PFR’s Simple Rating System, which uses points differential and strength of schedule.

Weird because here's 3 times you argued in this thread that there is no correlation between TOP and rushing.

I’m saying you’re looking at the wrong numbers. Stay tuned.
 

kerouac9

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@BritCard isn't going to like this. Time of possession data is here. All other data is from pro-football-reference.

Time of possession doesn't seem extremely related to rushing efficiency:

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It also doesn't seem to be very correlated to SRS (PFR's metric that combines score differential and strength of schedule -- it's more blunt but similar to DVOA and hopefully won't trigger those who are sensitive to such things):

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Wins is slightly more correlated (R-squared is 0.1129), but I'm not ready to say the data suggests that we need to keep pouring resources into the running game to win time of possession and dominate opponents.
 

bankybruce

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The hear that "4th qtr kneel downs" is highly correlated with wins. We should start doing that.
Obviously you didn't watch to 98 Burbon Bowl when the South Central Louisiana State University Mud Dogs upset the University of Louisiana Cougars. Remember when coach Red Beaulieu tried kneeling early to run the clock and the Mud Dogs came back? There is some question about the legality of the substance Boddy Boucher took there at the end.


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