Anyone in individual stocks?

jw7

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Got picks? I mostly concentrate money in cash and 401K, but I like to pick from time to time with a small portion.

Latest is RGR - Sturm Ruger - they make guns. So far up 20% in one month since I bought. Nice Div and good cash and good current ratio.

Anyone else got one?
 

Zeno

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No individual stocks for me, mostly because I am not confident or comfortable enough to do it. I'd like to get started but before I do that I plan to do my due diligence as far as educating myself so I am comfortable.

I have some mutual funds though.
 

BillsCarnage

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I've mostly dabbled w/ techs, but am just letting stuff sit right now. The Dow is going to toy w/ 16k for the rest of the year and then it'll be ready for a pull back.

You might create a portfolio at any of the sites and track stocks for when the market does pull back.
 

Russ Smith

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It's really hard to pick stocks right now because everything is so high. Even when I get them right I get them wrong. I had GTXI and sold it just over 5. I made about 15% on it, it hit 7 3 days ago before pulling back some. So I found the right stock, I just didn't hold it long enough.

I think the market is highly overbought right now but people are afraid to get out because it keeps going up. I expect a pullback, somewhere between 10 and 20 percent, but guessing when is tough. There's no logic to why it's this high so deducing when it will pull back is tough.
 

jefftheshark

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Gold & copper are indicating a pullback on the horizon, much like the tide rolls out before a tsunami.

Japan, is again, the model to watch. They are pushing QE to a fantastical limit and if it ends badly there one can only hope there's enough time to avoid the same iceberg. Personally I think something big happened at the end of last year that no one is talking about and the FED along with other central bankers are being forced into avenues they wouldn't have normally considered.

The disconnect between the stock market and reality continues to widen. It will be interesting to see what happens when the bubble pops, especially if the FED no longer has any arrows in the quiver.

JTS
 

Folster

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I'm still bullish on the market throughout the rest of the year. I think we'll see a couple minor pullbacks that will provide an entry points for those who have been sitting on the sidelines but nothing major.

Goldman Sachs came out this week and predicted the S&P would hit 1750 by year-end. 1900 in 2014 and 2100 in 2015.
 

Russ Smith

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I'm still bullish on the market throughout the rest of the year. I think we'll see a couple minor pullbacks that will provide an entry points for those who have been sitting on the sidelines but nothing major.

Goldman Sachs came out this week and predicted the S&P would hit 1750 by year-end. 1900 in 2014 and 2100 in 2015.

It's hard to bet against that because other than government help it's not clear what's driving the rise in the market right now. So until the government pulls out the help there's little reason at least domestically for the market to tank.
 

jefftheshark

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Some of the volitility of a week or so ago was caused by the mere mention of the Fed "tapering" off QE. It was immediately retracted and the market continued to grind upward. In Japan, almost the same thing - a BOJ official said that the Yen target had been met except their market has tumbled ever since.

I understand how someone might remain in stocks, but being bullish is something altogether different. Earnings are down, the various Fed PMI's are hovering around contraction, Europe is in recession, China is contracting, dr. Copper is hurting and gold is dramatically down. All of these are signals of deflationary pressure. Only the Fed pumping in $85B a month is keeping the bubble going.

This isn't to say that everyone should sell. But remember that when everyone heads to exits at once, that's when the little guys get trampled.

JTS
 

Folster

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Some of the volitility of a week or so ago was caused by the mere mention of the Fed "tapering" off QE. It was immediately retracted and the market continued to grind upward. In Japan, almost the same thing - a BOJ official said that the Yen target had been met except their market has tumbled ever since.

I understand how someone might remain in stocks, but being bullish is something altogether different. Earnings are down, the various Fed PMI's are hovering around contraction, Europe is in recession, China is contracting, dr. Copper is hurting and gold is dramatically down. All of these are signals of deflationary pressure. Only the Fed pumping in $85B a month is keeping the bubble going.

This isn't to say that everyone should sell. But remember that when everyone heads to exits at once, that's when the little guys get trampled.

JTS

Domestically employment, housing, manufacturing and energy production are all up. Government spending is down and the deficit is shrinking. Companies are loaded with cash. These are all great signs for the market.
 

jefftheshark

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Domestically employment, housing, manufacturing and energy production are all up. Government spending is down and the deficit is shrinking. Companies are loaded with cash. These are all great signs for the market.

:)

And that's why they play the game - good luck (no sarcasm at all) and I hope you're right.

JTS
 

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Manufacturing took a hit in today's report. Down across the board. This, of course, enthused Wall Street because it meant it would be really hard to raise interest rates right now.

"Hey, the earnings are going to suck, but at least they'll be able to continue to borrow money! Let's buy, buy, buy!"
 

jefftheshark

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I can only assume that those who are bullish on the market are now buying stock hands over fists. :)

The tsunami is pulling further and further back, gathering strength for a tidal wave of epic proportions. IMO the Crash is still a ways off since the Fed can back off tapering and continue to monetize the debt for a while, but the deluge is now inevitable. Observing what is happening in bonds plus the application of some basic arithmetic skills should give anybody a quick glimpse into the future. Think Detroit, but on a global scale.

JTS
 

Russ Smith

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I can only assume that those who are bullish on the market are now buying stock hands over fists. :)

The tsunami is pulling further and further back, gathering strength for a tidal wave of epic proportions. IMO the Crash is still a ways off since the Fed can back off tapering and continue to monetize the debt for a while, but the deluge is now inevitable. Observing what is happening in bonds plus the application of some basic arithmetic skills should give anybody a quick glimpse into the future. Think Detroit, but on a global scale.

JTS

Do you think any of it is connected to Japan and China or are we merely mirroring Japan's fall by coincidence?

This is why I started playing Biotech stocks awhile back they're far less connected to the overall market, although highly volatile.

If we are in any way connected to Japan look out, the Nikkei 225 basically went from 15K to 13K. I think their overall market fell even further more like 10-12%.

Forgot to add I nearly bought SDOW last Friday, its an ETF that shorts the DOW, supposed to be a 3X DOW. But I got cold feet and didn't buy it. It's up about 10% since then.
 

jefftheshark

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Do you think any of it is connected to Japan and China or are we merely mirroring Japan's fall by coincidence?

This is why I started playing Biotech stocks awhile back they're far less connected to the overall market, although highly volatile.

If we are in any way connected to Japan look out, the Nikkei 225 basically went from 15K to 13K. I think their overall market fell even further more like 10-12%.

Forgot to add I nearly bought SDOW last Friday, its an ETF that shorts the DOW, supposed to be a 3X DOW. But I got cold feet and didn't buy it. It's up about 10% since then.

I think Japan is just further down the curve than we are, both QE-wise and demographically (aging population). Their recent flirtation with QE on steroids (Abeonomics) has shown that there is a limit on how much you can push on a string. When you look at China you see a very opaque economic reporting system and even so their most recent "flash" PMI report shows a huge lack of liquidity running rampant throughout their system. A major Chinese bank almost defaulted yesterday because of this, yet it got little airplay because of everything else going on.

But there's a lot more to it than this.

Look, Europe is a mess. The Greek problem just won't go away. Depositors are scared crap-less because of Cyprus and the looming issue of "bail-ins". Here in the US, Bernanke is visibly nervous that his policies haven't worked ("I don't know why interest rates are going up!" he admits yesterday. Really?) Housing stocks fell today because the affordability of houses is going into the crapper (Someone who could qualify for $425K home several weeks ago can only get a $380K today at the same payment - that hardly seems bullish). Look at the bellweathers like the recent CAT sales for North America - where are we spending money on CAPEX?

As I see it, the world is waking up to the inescapable conclusion that you can't solve a debt problem with more debt. You can counterfeit money for a long time, though, until it eventually catches up with you when somebody decides they can't or won't play the game any more. (See China above). Then it gets ugly, especially if the dollar loses its reserve status.

My best guess is that we are in 2008 territory again. I think, probably sometime this fall when margin calls are triggered by some unknown event like a European bank default, that we'll see a huge loss of value again when the global economy falls into a liquidity trap the magnitude of a super-sized black hole. The Fed will kick in the presses but the fear is that this time no one will want the silly little pieces of paper (well, electrons, really). The best suggestion I can make is to scrutinize your counter-party risk. By that I mean it won't do you any good to hold a 3X short ETF if the sponsoring bank goes belly up and can't pay. It is time to get defensive again and look for value on the other side - it's there, you just have to search it out and stay out of the way of the thundering herd's hooves. :)

JTS
 

Russ Smith

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I think Japan is just further down the curve than we are, both QE-wise and demographically (aging population). Their recent flirtation with QE on steroids (Abeonomics) has shown that there is a limit on how much you can push on a string. When you look at China you see a very opaque economic reporting system and even so their most recent "flash" PMI report shows a huge lack of liquidity running rampant throughout their system. A major Chinese bank almost defaulted yesterday because of this, yet it got little airplay because of everything else going on.

But there's a lot more to it than this.

Look, Europe is a mess. The Greek problem just won't go away. Depositors are scared crap-less because of Cyprus and the looming issue of "bail-ins". Here in the US, Bernanke is visibly nervous that his policies haven't worked ("I don't know why interest rates are going up!" he admits yesterday. Really?) Housing stocks fell today because the affordability of houses is going into the crapper (Someone who could qualify for $425K home several weeks ago can only get a $380K today at the same payment - that hardly seems bullish). Look at the bellweathers like the recent CAT sales for North America - where are we spending money on CAPEX?

As I see it, the world is waking up to the inescapable conclusion that you can't solve a debt problem with more debt. You can counterfeit money for a long time, though, until it eventually catches up with you when somebody decides they can't or won't play the game any more. (See China above). Then it gets ugly, especially if the dollar loses its reserve status.

My best guess is that we are in 2008 territory again. I think, probably sometime this fall when margin calls are triggered by some unknown event like a European bank default, that we'll see a huge loss of value again when the global economy falls into a liquidity trap the magnitude of a super-sized black hole. The Fed will kick in the presses but the fear is that this time no one will want the silly little pieces of paper (well, electrons, really). The best suggestion I can make is to scrutinize your counter-party risk. By that I mean it won't do you any good to hold a 3X short ETF if the sponsoring bank goes belly up and can't pay. It is time to get defensive again and look for value on the other side - it's there, you just have to search it out and stay out of the way of the thundering herd's hooves. :)

JTS


Good point if they can't pay who cares what your account says it's worth.

I've only been buying individual stocks in my IRA for months now, got out of stock funds because the market was so overbought. Had a couple of misses and otherwise made 10-20% on other purchases.

In general I'm sticking to my buy a stock, immediately put in a sell order at between 10 and 20% profit and then don't change your mind unless you have a REAL reason to do so.

But even Biotech will get pulled down if the whole system tanks again, they need banks and loans too.
 

Russ Smith

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DOW down 200 again this morning over China banking concerns.
 

jefftheshark

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DOW down 200 again this morning over China banking concerns.

The Bank of China suspended transfers & online banking today. This should tighten a sphincter or two. :)

The Chinese Central Bank over the weekend said that they had printed "enough" money to meet liquidity needs, it had just been mis-allocated (lol), so they weren't going to ride to the rescue. Europe got slammed today as well.

The homebuilders as a group are in bear territory. If anybody had been watching lumber prices, they would have seen this coming. When lumber is this cheap, there's a reason, no matter how much the "official" reports say housing is recovering.

In the end, its all been financialization games. Cheap leverage tightly controlled to benefit one group and one group only - the banks. But like any scheme, eventually the market wins out and here it comes. I still believe this isn't the "big" one, there's still a couple of innings left to play, but.....

JTS
 

Russ Smith

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The Bank of China suspended transfers & online banking today. This should tighten a sphincter or two. :)

The Chinese Central Bank over the weekend said that they had printed "enough" money to meet liquidity needs, it had just been mis-allocated (lol), so they weren't going to ride to the rescue. Europe got slammed today as well.

The homebuilders as a group are in bear territory. If anybody had been watching lumber prices, they would have seen this coming. When lumber is this cheap, there's a reason, no matter how much the "official" reports say housing is recovering.

In the end, its all been financialization games. Cheap leverage tightly controlled to benefit one group and one group only - the banks. But like any scheme, eventually the market wins out and here it comes. I still believe this isn't the "big" one, there's still a couple of innings left to play, but.....

JTS

Agreed not the big drop yet but with all this going on once Bernanke actually does start the removal of the propping up, it'll fall hard.
 

jefftheshark

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Agreed not the big drop yet but with all this going on once Bernanke actually does start the removal of the propping up, it'll fall hard.

There is a school of thought that they can't remove the support now. That any talk of tapering is only to let some air out of the bubble. The problem is that other countries might not play along. China is in a tough position economically and politically it is very pissed off about the recent spying/hacking revelations coming out of the US.

The Black Swan is always something unexpected that in retrospect should have been seen coming. It was true in 2008 and its true today.

JTS
 

Russ Smith

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There is a school of thought that they can't remove the support now. That any talk of tapering is only to let some air out of the bubble. The problem is that other countries might not play along. China is in a tough position economically and politically it is very pissed off about the recent spying/hacking revelations coming out of the US.

The Black Swan is always something unexpected that in retrospect should have been seen coming. It was true in 2008 and its true today.

JTS

Hey don't blame Natalie Portman or Mila Kunis
 

jefftheshark

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We are officially a "press release economy". :)

I guess if I make a point to talk about the market when it goes down, it's only fair to discuss it when it goes up, especially since the mechanisms for both movements are the same. Economic fundimentals are so yesterday's thinking, today in our modern world we have replaced that with "reading tea leaves". It no longer matters that mortgage applications are at a 19 month low, it only matters that a Fed member gives a speach saying that Fed purchases will continue for the foreseeable future, no matter what the Chairman says.

Divorsed from reality, the stock market is truly a casino. Except it is a rigged house where individuals can influence who wins by the simple act of timing press releases. Play the game at your own risk though, situations like this have a way if ending quite badly when they do.

JTS
 

Russ Smith

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We are officially a "press release economy". :)

I guess if I make a point to talk about the market when it goes down, it's only fair to discuss it when it goes up, especially since the mechanisms for both movements are the same. Economic fundimentals are so yesterday's thinking, today in our modern world we have replaced that with "reading tea leaves". It no longer matters that mortgage applications are at a 19 month low, it only matters that a Fed member gives a speach saying that Fed purchases will continue for the foreseeable future, no matter what the Chairman says.

Divorsed from reality, the stock market is truly a casino. Except it is a rigged house where individuals can influence who wins by the simple act of timing press releases. Play the game at your own risk though, situations like this have a way if ending quite badly when they do.

JTS

Yep the market is nuts right now, nothing makes sense.
 

Russ Smith

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"Right Now"??? Seriously Russ - don't you think it's been years, like, perhaps as far back as 2007 or so, since the market made even the slightest bit of sense??

True but right now is just as Jeff said PR. Starts down and the media says the sky is falling. Then someone says not so fast, and it rockets back up. The sky is still falling, just someone said it might not be and everyone jumped for joy and bought back in.
 
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