A vote for Quinnen Williams

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
My favorite stat there is #51 in Red Zone completion %
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
Wrong

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary

Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP)
Using a passer’s Completion Probability on every play, determine what a passer’s completion percentage is expected to be.

That literally didn't prove me wrong. What that is saying is if he did everything right (expected to be) he would have completed 59.5% of his passes. Whereas CJ Beatherard and Derek Carr who had the best expected completion percentage would have completed 68% of their passes if they did everything right. In other words, the best Josh could have done without any lucky bounces or WRs making miracle catches, is 59.5%. That's saying he had it tough, not easy. You can keep arguing all you want, but I guarantee you that I know sports statistics better than you do.
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
The following scores league average is 100

You must be registered for see images attach
 

TheCardFan

Things have changed.
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
12,070
Reaction score
14,683
Location
Charlotte
Thank you @BirdDroppings

How do you analyze this stat:

I will continue to say that Rosen was last in clean pocket Quarterback Rating (ample time)

Thought I read somewhere where Rosen had 2 seconds per play (no time).
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
Lets take a "stud" QB to compare those stats to like say - Colt McCoy

You must be registered for see images attach
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
Lets take a "stud" QB to compare those stats to like say - Colt McCoy

You must be registered for see images attach

You can spout off all the stats you want. Stats without context is a fools errand. And I will freely admit Josh had a bad year. But I just wish you'd admit that his year was made worse by what was around him than say, Baker Mayfield's year was.
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
That stat doesn't average how much time. It only says when he had a clean pocket, what was his Quarterback rating

However, you can find his time to throw here.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

Just for clarity, time to throw measures how quickly the QB got rid of the ball, not how much time they had to get rid of the ball. It's not a measure of OL protection but of how quickly the QB got rid of the ball. Not saying you don't know that but I thought the clarity was warranted anyway.
 

Jetstream Green

Kool Aid with a touch of vodka
Joined
Feb 5, 2003
Posts
29,462
Reaction score
16,606
Location
San Antonio, Texas
I think it's freaking hilarious to compare pressure stats on the NFL level for a QB in a bunk situation and then having the proof of its validity by siding with a guy who plays on the college level in a conference which he has amazing protection surrounded by superior talent in relation to his opponents
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
You can spout off all the stats you want. Stats without context is a fools errand. And I will freely admit Josh had a bad year. But I just wish you'd admit that his year was made worse by what was around him than say, Baker Mayfield's year was.

I can spout off roughly 53 analytic points where Rosen didn't make league average in a single one. I know because I kept looking for a reason to support Rosen and all I found across the board was futility.

I looked at the game tapes to find what he does well and all I saw was high throws, late throws, misreads on open receivers...
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
Thank you @BirdDroppings

How do you analyze this stat:

I will continue to say that Rosen was last in clean pocket Quarterback Rating (ample time)

Thought I read somewhere where Rosen had 2 seconds per play (no time).

The numbers I have say Allen was worst (Rosen was 2nd to last). It's not good, but I think contextually, he was "pressing" a lot because we were generally trailing by multiple scores and had no choice but to go for the big play. Doesn't really excuse the number though.
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
Just for clarity, time to throw measures how quickly the QB got rid of the ball, not how much time they had to get rid of the ball. It's not a measure of OL protection but of how quickly the QB got rid of the ball. Not saying you don't know that but I thought the clarity was warranted anyway.

Correct that would be Football Outsiders. Cards weren't worst. 2 rookie QBs had worse protection.

but but but Rosen had it soooo bad

You must be registered for see images attach
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
I can spout off roughly 53 analytic points where Rosen didn't make league average in a single one. I know because I kept looking for a reason to support Rosen and all I found across the board was futility.

I looked at the game tapes to find what he does well and all I saw was high throws, late throws, misreads on open receivers...

Was the expectation for a rookie QB on a bad team to make league average though? That seems like setting yourself up for disappointment. Most rookie QBs are below league average on most stats, historically. Especially ones on bad teams vs ones on good teams. That's no excuse, but it is context.
 

GuernseyCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Dec 29, 2012
Posts
10,123
Reaction score
5,681
Location
London UK
I can spout off roughly 53 analytic points where Rosen didn't make league average in a single one. I know because I kept looking for a reason to support Rosen and all I found across the board was futility.

I looked at the game tapes to find what he does well and all I saw was high throws, late throws, misreads on open receivers...

Two parts to a completion and I don't know, and neither do you, how many times Rosen and the receiver were simply not on the same page and who to blame.

I do know he wasn't to play last year and TC was designed around getting Bradford up to speed.

I do know that he was dealing with two O-coordinators.

I do know that there were 16 permutations of the O-line and only one, a rookie, played all 16.

I do know, he was physically hammered and got up every time.

And, I do know he was all of 21 years of age, 3 years younger than the guy up in Cleveland.
 
Last edited:

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
Correct that would be Football Outsiders. Cards weren't worst. 2 rookie QBs had worse protection.

but but but Rosen had it soooo bad

You must be registered for see images attach

Yeah Rosen did have it bad, as did Darnold and Allen who's season numbers were barely any better than Rosen's, yet their teams and fanbases aren't looking to give up on them after 1 year. Maybe in your mind they should be and you may be right, time will tell.
 

TheCardFan

Things have changed.
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
12,070
Reaction score
14,683
Location
Charlotte
Yeah Rosen did have it bad, as did Darnold and Allen who's season numbers were barely any better than Rosen's, yet their teams and fanbases aren't looking to give up on them after 1 year. Maybe in your mind they should be and you may be right, time will tell.

Not to open up old wounds but none of those rookie QB's had a one and done HC, an OC that got fired after 7 games (fired 3 times in less than 16 games?), and a new OC with 1 year of coaching experience at any level.

I think these were historically bad circumstances. I still don't know if Rosen is a future star but I don't know if Murray is either.
 
Last edited:

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
Not to open up old wounds but none of those rookie QB's had a one and done HC, an OC that got fired after 7 games (fired 3 times in less than 16 games?), and a new OC with 1 year of coaching experience at any level.

I think these were historically bad circumstances. I still don't know if Rosen is a future star but I also don't know if Murray is either.

Yeah I am definitely concerned about Rosen, but I don't know how anyone can, with a straight face, ignore the context and just cite the league average statistics from last year as if Rosen was in league average circumstances.

It's not surprising though, as we live in an age of statistics but few people understand how to use them beyond a base-level.
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
Yeah I am definitely concerned about Rosen, but I don't know how anyone can, with a straight face, ignore the context and just cite the league average statistics from last year as if Rosen was in league average circumstances.

It's not surprising though, as we live in an age of statistics but few people understand how to use them beyond a base-level.

I don't expect you to look at the 300 Rosen threads but I have continuously agreed he had a bad situation last year and what we saw will be his floor.

It's his ceiling I now doubt.
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
I don't expect you to look at the 300 Rosen threads but I have continuously agreed he had a bad situation last year and what we saw will be his floor.

It's his ceiling I now doubt.

How do you define his ceiling though? Do you think his limitations are physical? Are they mental? Mechanical? What specific things in his game do you think are unfixable? Or do you simply not believe he's the type of player that will put in the time to improve by much?
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
How do you define his ceiling though? Do you think his limitations are physical? Are they mental? Mechanical? What specific things in his game do you think are unfixable? Or do you simply not believe he's the type of player that will put in the time to improve by much?

Accuracy is the thing that I believe he will struggle the most improving. There are problems across the board from footwork, to missing open receivers, missing reads, locking onto primary targets, late throws...

The historical improvements from this poor of a start are not good. Goff, Stafford, Aikman, and one other that escapes me off the top of my head have done it but it's really rare. It's far more likely he ends up in the 58% completion percentage range than 62%
 

GuernseyCard

ASFN Icon
Joined
Dec 29, 2012
Posts
10,123
Reaction score
5,681
Location
London UK
I don't expect you to look at the 300 Rosen threads but I have continuously agreed he had a bad situation last year and what we saw will be his floor.

It's his ceiling I now doubt.

Talent = floor
Ceiling = hard work

No reason to believe that Rosen will not work to get better.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PJ1

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
Talent = floor
Ceiling = hard work

No reason to believe that Rosen will not work to get better.

I really went back and looked at QB accuracy from year 1 to career and it just doesn't improve as much as you think.

There are some outliers, the largest being Stafford but it is rare. I was surprised a lot of guys just get worse.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,921
Reaction score
7,818
Location
Mesa, AZ
Talent = floor
Ceiling = hard work

No reason to believe that Rosen will not work to get better.
That works for a guy like Brady. We wanna look at those historical numbers to show how much hard work pays off more than talent? If there is a way. Maybe it's both ...and I haven't been following this whole hard work thing, but are we going off this "non grinder" concept here? Maybe he doesn't need to be...because he doesn't lack talent. I dunno. Just spit balling here.
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
Accuracy is the thing that I believe he will struggle the most improving. There are problems across the board from footwork, to missing open receivers, missing reads, locking onto primary targets, late throws...

The historical improvements from this poor of a start are not good. Goff, Stafford, Aikman, and one other that escapes me off the top of my head have done it but it's really rare. It's far more likely he ends up in the 58% completion percentage range than 62%

That's fair. I think it's a little overly pessimistic though. Drew Brees 1st 2 full seasons as a starter his completion % was 60 and 58% respectively. He's been above 64% every year since and above 70% the last 3 years. Rothlisberger is a weird one, his 1st year was 66%, 3rd and 5th years were 59% and career average is 64%. Farve's career took a similar roller coaster path. His highest year was his 2nd to last at 68% and his lowest was 3 years earlier at 56%. Peyton Manning whom I think is the other guy you forgot, started off at 57%, was at 62% the next 3 seasons, then stayed above 65% the rest of his career until that final bad year where he was just under 60% but won the SB anyway.

I really went back and looked at QB accuracy from year 1 to career and it just doesn't improve as much as you think.

There are some outliers, the largest being Stafford but it is rare. I was surprised a lot of guys just get worse.

I think what see when guys get worse is that their situation gets worse. Either they lose ability due to injury, their coaching staff gets downgraded, they are asked to do things they shouldn't really be asked to do or the talent around them gets worse. It's not likely that they just become worse QBs. Talent usually doesn't disappear like that. When you look at career stats like that and see you peaks and valleys, you have to ask what the circumstances were in those seasons.
 

Cardiac

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jul 21, 2002
Posts
12,044
Reaction score
3,232
That's fair. I think it's a little overly pessimistic though. Drew Brees 1st 2 full seasons as a starter his completion % was 60 and 58% respectively. He's been above 64% every year since and above 70% the last 3 years. Rothlisberger is a weird one, his 1st year was 66%, 3rd and 5th years were 59% and career average is 64%. Farve's career took a similar roller coaster path. His highest year was his 2nd to last at 68% and his lowest was 3 years earlier at 56%. Peyton Manning whom I think is the other guy you forgot, started off at 57%, was at 62% the next 3 seasons, then stayed above 65% the rest of his career until that final bad year where he was just under 60% but won the SB anyway.



I think what see when guys get worse is that their situation gets worse. Either they lose ability due to injury, their coaching staff gets downgraded, they are asked to do things they shouldn't really be asked to do or the talent around them gets worse. It's not likely that they just become worse QBs. Talent usually doesn't disappear like that. When you look at career stats like that and see you peaks and valleys, you have to ask what the circumstances were in those seasons.

Welcome to the board and it is rare to have received more likes than posts.

My concern with Rosen is that even though he kept getting up after getting sacked and sacked and sacked which showed his toughness but IMO affected him with his accuracy. Even Brady has lesser games when he gets a ton of pressure up the middle and Rosen had pressure from in the middle and outside and everywhere else.

I'm hoping that any bad habits he picked up last year by being a punching bag can be fixed.
 
Top