A vote for Quinnen Williams

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
Josh Rosen wishes to attain Alex Smith level production.

And that's not hyperbole..... The dude was HORRIBLE in every measurable situation last year. pressure, no pressure, moving, stationary, road, home, EVERYTHING. Fixing our line is a false flag. Pinning your hopes on scheme and protection fails to see the whole board. Our guy was a huge part of the problem.

Cool, that doesn't make their methodology worthwhile. Also doesn't say anything about what Murray will be as a pro.
 

TJ

Frank Kaminsky is my Hero.
Joined
Apr 2, 2005
Posts
34,232
Reaction score
19,680
Location
South Bay
Pat wasn't Pat until he started. Same for Baker.

Same will be true for Kyler.

Josh had the worst season (Statistically) of any QB in the league last year from an advanced analytics perspective.

Him becoming the NFL Average QB would be a MONSTER improvement over year one. But still leave him way short of being a true difference maker at the most important position on the field.

Every single veteran player on offense last season had either their worst or near-worst statistical season in their NFL career, including Sam Bradford. That’s a coaching problem when everyone fails.

As much as it pains you to admit, the problem goes far beyond Rosen.
 

Solar7

Go Suns
Joined
May 18, 2002
Posts
11,123
Reaction score
11,963
Location
Las Vegas, NV
You know what drives me crazy? Voting for Quinnen Williams.

How can anyone say Kyler looked like crap against Bama (when he didn't) but then prop QW up after his play in the two BCS bowl games?

Oklahoma game: 0 Tackles. 1 Asst tackle. No TFL.
Clemson: 3 tackles. 1 Asst tackle. 1.5 TFL.

Again.... You can scheme good defensive players straight out of the game. College, Pro, anywhere. Will they be disruptive on 5 to 10 snaps? Sure. But when you only play half of the snaps as it is, then you are only affecting 10% of the overall play count.

Q & NB will never have the snap to snap impact that a QB will have. It's just not possible. Andy Dalton & Joe freaking Flacco affect more outcomes than Aaron Donald.
I get what you're saying and kinda agree, but you don't just force your hand at the position with a guy who isn't a game changer because you're desperate. That seems to be what you're suggesting.

I mean, we can go back and forth all day, I just simply do not believe in Kyler and think almost anyone else we pick is a better choice. If we had a 10-20 pick? Give me the risk and upside of Kyler all day long. At #1 overall? No way. Give me the blue chip defensive guy with all of the measurables.

I mean, that's the issue of this WAR or replacement level statistic... I see Kyler as maybe a 1-2 game improvement over last year's version of Rosen. And if that's the case, what's the point?
 

Dr. Jones

Has No Time For Love
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Posts
26,041
Reaction score
14,636
Taking Q Williams over Bosa should not be a new mindset.
Why? This time last year we had no clue who Quinnen Williams was. Bosa had a ton of press and Kyler was the Texas legend about to replace a Heisman winner.

This was QW's first year of great production. He still didn't play 60% of the snaps on defense. And he was seen regularly huffing for air on the sidelines during crucial downs in the BCS games.
 

iLLmatiC

Drive-by Poster
Joined
Jul 4, 2004
Posts
7,484
Reaction score
5,013
Location
Gilbert, AZ
The preponderance of love recently given to Murray by the scouting community, if accurate, is worth taking seriously.

But always lurking in the background of any discussion has to be lack of size

Lack of size, he could always fall back to baseball, we'd be taking him with the #1 pick, we'd be accountable for 8 million dollars of dead cap money...what's not to love about drafting Shrimp Boy #1?
 

HeHasRosen

All Star
Joined
Apr 30, 2018
Posts
670
Reaction score
517
Location
Tucson AZ
Why? This time last year we had no clue who Quinnen Williams was. Bosa had a ton of press and Kyler was the Texas legend about to replace a Heisman winner.

This was QW's first year of great production. He still didn't play 60% of the snaps on defense. And he was seen regularly huffing for air on the sidelines during crucial downs in the BCS games.

Q like Murray sat behind a really good player until last year
 

BigRedRage

Reckless
Supporting Member
Joined
Mar 25, 2005
Posts
48,274
Reaction score
12,524
Location
SE valley
You know what drives me crazy? Voting for Quinnen Williams.

How can anyone say Kyler looked like crap against Bama (when he didn't) but then prop QW up after his play in the two BCS bowl games?

Oklahoma game: 0 Tackles. 1 Asst tackle. No TFL.
Clemson: 3 tackles. 1 Asst tackle. 1.5 TFL.

Again.... You can scheme good defensive players straight out of the game. College, Pro, anywhere. Will they be disruptive on 5 to 10 snaps? Sure. But when you only play half of the snaps as it is, then you are only affecting 10% of the overall play count.

Q & NB will never have the snap to snap impact that a QB will have. It's just not possible. Andy Dalton & Joe freaking Flacco affect more outcomes than Aaron Donald.
Just to specifically comment on your scheme premise, for every man who is schemed to be removed, another is opened up. I don't see how you plan to scheme out chandler, qw and suggs app at the same time. If anything, if this is your philosophy, you should be prioritizing as many front 7 menaces as possible so that if a team schemes for some, the others wreak havok.

Sent from my LG-LS993 using Tapatalk
 

JosiahLee

Hall of Famer
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Posts
1,989
Reaction score
3,510
Location
Gilbert
This kills me. Defensive tackles regularly rotate out, Donald does, Suh does they all do. The really good teams like Alabama keep a rotation so the offensive line is always up against fresh lineman this helps especially late in the game.

He’s not out of shape and big sloppy dude he’s just a big dude there’s a difference. You don’t dominate like he does being out of shape.

Sounds ignorant? I’m not even going to comment on this

Just for the record, here are the 2018 snap count percentages of the two NFL players you referenced:

-Aaron Donald in on over 90% of defensive snaps

-Suh in for 88%

I get that many guys on the D Line get rotated in. I’m just pointing out his body type isn’t impressive and images of him on the side line wearing oxygen masks with limited snaps isn’t a good look.
 

JosiahLee

Hall of Famer
Joined
Sep 20, 2018
Posts
1,989
Reaction score
3,510
Location
Gilbert
In their own abstract, they say that it's the first attempt to measure win replacement in football and that it's highly context-dependent to even attempt to do so. Point being it's a statistic with no established merit so I don't care how many wins above replacement they think Mahomes is.

Case in point he was only 2 wins better in 2018 than Alex Smith was in 2017. Smith who, in my mind and most other peoples minds is the epitome of a replacement level starting QB. It seems to me that if Mahomes is "8 wins above replacement" they are using all QBs, backup and starter to form their numbers and that simply doesn't work with the QB position as 2/3rd of the QBs in the league aren't there to actually start normally.

I think it’s worth pointing out in this argument that Alex Smith had the highest qb rating of ALL NFL QB’s in 2017 that played a full season.
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
I think it’s worth pointing out in this argument that Alex Smith had the highest qb rating of ALL NFL QB’s in 2017 that played a full season.

It didn't seem to translate to the Redskins. I think this kind of epitomizes my argument. Smith on the Chiefs with their talent and Reid coaching sets a record. It's almost like QB performance is majorly impacted by what's around them. Don't tell that to the Murray crowd though.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,921
Reaction score
7,818
Location
Mesa, AZ
It didn't seem to translate to the Redskins. I think this kind of epitomizes my argument. Smith on the Chiefs with their talent and Reid coaching sets a record. It's almost like QB performance is majorly impacted by what's around them. Don't tell that to the Murray crowd though.
I haven't seen any Murray supporters argue this..
 

Chopper0080

2021 - Prove It
Joined
May 15, 2002
Posts
26,987
Reaction score
35,948
Location
Colorado
Why? This time last year we had no clue who Quinnen Williams was. Bosa had a ton of press and Kyler was the Texas legend about to replace a Heisman winner.

This was QW's first year of great production. He still didn't play 60% of the snaps on defense. And he was seen regularly huffing for air on the sidelines during crucial downs in the BCS games.
He is a red shirt Soph who who was able to start and dominate at DT for one of the best programs in college football, a legendarily tough defensive HC, and on a roster stacked with future NFL players.

He is a guy who was so good, even the vaunted Alabama defense couldn't hold him down...unlike Murray. (lol had to put that in)
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,921
Reaction score
7,818
Location
Mesa, AZ
Exactly. They reject the notion that Oklahoma being stacked might possibly inflate Murray's college numbers and also reject the notion that the mess that was our offense last year might have been the main reason Rosen couldn't produce.
Maybe a little bit of both. Anti Murray posters might tend to discount the fact that he made players around him better.. which might make a team seem "stacked". Jmo
 

BW52

Registered
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
5,043
Reaction score
1,904
Location
crestwood,Ky
Maybe a little bit of both. Anti Murray posters might tend to discount the fact that he made players around him better.. which might make a team seem "stacked". Jmo

Just like the Murrayites tend to discount having a superior supporting cast in a inferior defensively inept conference.
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
Exactly. They reject the notion that Oklahoma being stacked might possibly inflate Murray's college numbers and also reject the notion that the mess that was our offense last year might have been the main reason Rosen couldn't produce.

#1. This isn't correct. I absolutely believe the criticisms of Murray are valid. So are the praise. You end up with a prospect who has both a low floor and a high ceiling.

#2. I will continue to say that Rosen was last in clean pocket Quarterback Rating (ample time). Last in expected completion percentage (open receiver).

These are perfect situations for a QB and he was last.

He is a complete bust until proven otherwise.
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
#1. This isn't correct. I absolutely believe the criticisms of Murray are valid. So are the praise. You end up with a prospect who has both a low floor and a high ceiling.

#2. I will continue to say that Rosen was last in clean pocket Quarterback Rating (ample time). Last in expected completion percentage (open receiver).

These are perfect situations for a QB and he was last.

He is a complete bust until proven otherwise.

Having the lowest expected completion percentage means he had less help than any other QB in the NFL. It's not a perfect situation for a QB it means he had the worst situation of all QBs in the NFL.
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
Having the lowest expected completion percentage means he had less help than any other QB in the NFL. It's not a perfect situation for a QB it means he had the worst situation of all QBs in the NFL.

That isn't what it means at all. It means the receiver was open so you expect a completion, the completion didn't happen, and it wasn't a drop.
 

BirdDroppings

Rookie
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Posts
66
Reaction score
111
Location
Here
That isn't what it means at all. It means the receiver was open so you expect a completion, the completion didn't happen, and it wasn't a drop.

His being lowest means that the % of time that the WR was open was lower than anyone else's. I work in sports statistics and I'm telling you that this stat is saying his WRs gave him less help than anyone elses.
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
His being lowest means that the % of time that the WR was open was lower than anyone else's. I work in sports statistics and I'm telling you that this stat is saying his WRs gave him less help than anyone elses.

Wrong

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/glossary

Expected Completion Percentage (xCOMP)
Using a passer’s Completion Probability on every play, determine what a passer’s completion percentage is expected to be.
 

Chris_Sanders

Not Always The Best Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
38,428
Reaction score
28,055
Location
Scottsdale, Az
Here is Rosen's efficiency

You must be registered for see images attach
 
Top