2024 Texans pick watch thread

football karma

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this weeks game is big --

in the interest of keeping the Texans out of the playoffs -- AFC teams to root for each week:

Cincy
Cleveland

Pitt
Indy
Buffalo

Denver
Jax

at this point, its about the Texans NOT making the playoffs --

we really want Cleveland, Indy, Jax, Buff and Denver to win games
 

BACH

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The Texans win was a surprise.
The Pick is #17 at this moment. If the Texans had Lost it would have Been #14.
 

BACH

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Pats win and Texans lose making a huge impact on the draft positions. Cardinals now sit on the #2 overall pick and seems unlikely that will change given the schedule of Patriots and Cardinals.

The Texans' pick is currently the #16 pick and could potentially go up to #11, but realisticly no higher than #14. There is still a chance for the Texans to qualify for the play-off and the pick to be in the 20s as both Colts and Jax lost as well.

Interesting turnaround. Cardinals are now in a position to draft one of the top 2 QB prospect, pick up at a minimum a high 2nd rounder for dropping 1-2 spots or demand a king's ransom to drop down to #8-#11. I'm expecting at minimum a 2024 2nd rounder plus a 2025 1st rounder to drop down around #10.
 

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GatorAZ

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Pats win and Texans lose making a huge impact on the draft positions. Cardinals now sit on the #2 overall pick and seems unlikely that will change given the schedule of Patriots and Cardinals.

The Texans' pick is currently the #16 pick and could potentially go up to #11, but realisticly no higher than #14. There is still a chance for the Texans to qualify for the play-off and the pick to be in the 20s as both Colts and Jax lost as well.

Interesting turnaround. Cardinals are now in a position to draft one of the top 2 QB prospect, pick up a 2nd for dropping 1-2 spots og demand a king's ransom to drop down to #8-#11. I'm expecting at minimum a 2024 2nd rounder plus a 2025 1st rounder to drop down around #10.

That’s only one additional 1st since we’re swapping first this year. For passing on MHJ, hell no. If we’re trading back the package better make our toes curl.
 

BACH

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That’s only one additional 1st since we’re swapping first this year. For passing on MHJ, hell no. If we’re trading back the package better make our toes curl.
I’m Guessing the Price to Trade up from e.g #8 would be 2x1st and 2x2nd at a minimum. Panthers traded #9 overall for 2x1st, 1x2nd, 1x3rd and DJ Moore (guessing 2nd round value).
 
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BACH

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So what are we looking at here? Here are the latest draft trades for #2 or #3 overall for a QB.

2016
Eagles trade up to #2 overall for Carson Wentz.
Eagles give: Eagles first- (No. 8), third- (No. 77) and fourth-round (No. 100) pick in 2016, 2017 first-round pick and 2018 second-round pick = 3175 draft points.
Browns give: Browns' 1st-round pick (No. 2) in 2016 and a fourth-round pick in 2017 = 2636,5 draft points

2017
Bears trade up for #2 to take Mitch Trubisky.
Bears give: 2017 #3 overall, 2017 3rd rounder, 2017 4th rounder & 2018 3rd rounder = 2742 draft points
49ers give: 2017 #2 overall = 2600 draft points

2021
49ers trade up from 12th to #3 to draft Trey Lance
49ers give: 2021 #12 overall, 2022 1st rounder, 2022 4th rounder & 2023 1st rounder = 2576 draft points
Dolphins give: 2021 #3 overall = 2200 draft points

2023
Panthers trade up to #1 overall to take Bryce Young
Panthers give: Carolina's No. 9 and No. 61 overall picks in 2023, a first-round pick in 2024, a second-round pick in 2025 and star wide receiver D.J. Moore = 5112 draft points + DJ Moore (2025 2nd rounder estimated at #43 overall pick.
Bears give: #1 overall pick = 3000 draft points
 

BullheadCardFan

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So what are we looking at here? Here are the latest draft trades for #2 or #3 overall for a QB.

2016
Eagles trade up to #2 overall for Carson Wentz.
Eagles give: Eagles first- (No. 8), third- (No. 77) and fourth-round (No. 100) pick in 2016, 2017 first-round pick and 2018 second-round pick = 3175 draft points.
Browns give: Browns' 1st-round pick (No. 2) in 2016 and a fourth-round pick in 2017 = 2636,5 draft points

2017
Bears trade up for #2 to take Mitch Trubisky.
Bears give: 2017 #3 overall, 2017 3rd rounder, 2017 4th rounder & 2018 3rd rounder = 2742 draft points
49ers give: 2017 #2 overall = 2600 draft points

2021
49ers trade up from 12th to #3 to draft Trey Lance
49ers give: 2021 #12 overall, 2022 1st rounder, 2022 4th rounder & 2023 1st rounder = 2576 draft points
Dolphins give: 2021 #3 overall = 2200 draft points

2023
Panthers trade up to #1 overall to take Bryce Young
Panthers give: Carolina's No. 9 and No. 61 overall picks in 2023, a first-round pick in 2024, a second-round pick in 2025 and star wide receiver D.J. Moore = 5112 draft points + DJ Moore (2025 2nd rounder estimated at #43 overall pick.
Bears give: #1 overall pick = 3000 draft points
Thanks for breaking them down for us
 

Krangodnzr

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I’m Guessing the Price to Trade up from e.g #8 would be 2x1st and 2x2nd at a minimum. Panthers traded #9 overall for 2x1st, 1x2nd, 1x3rd and DJ Moore (guessing 2nd round value).
I'd argue Moore would fetch at least a first if not a first and a third because he is a good, young WR on a very reasonable contract.
 

BACH

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Update before the last week in the regular season.

Our picks are currently sitting at #4 and #17.

Our pick. We can go back to #2 with a loss at Seattle and a win for the Patriots and Commanders. Commanders are hosting the Cowboys, so a win is highly unlikely. The Patriots are hosting the Jets, where a win is likely. Cards can very well end up back at #3.

Houston's pick.
Texans are playing in Indy for a head to head match-up. If the Texans lose, then the pick could go in a free fall as they have the weakest SOS outside the NFC South. Denver, Bengals and Seahawks would all go above Texans in draft order with a win and a Texans' loss. That would leave the Texans' pick at #14.

I think the Patriots will win and secure the #3 pick for us.
I have the Colts as slight favorite, but it's a toss up.
IF the Texans win, the pick will be #17 or #18 as the Jaguars most likely will win against Titans and leave the Texans out for the playoffs.
If the Texans lose, then it's dependant on Seahawks beating us, Bengals winning over the Browns at home and the Broncos beating the Raiders in Vegas. All possible, but realisticly only 1-2 of those scenarios will happen. That leaves the pick at either #15 or #16.

My most realistic end-scenario is #3 and #16.
 

AustrianCardFan

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IF the Texans win, the pick will be #17 or #18 as the Jaguars most likely will win against Titans and leave the Texans out for the playoffs.
I think in that case they are certainly in as they will have secured at least the #7 seed.
 

THESMEL

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Everybody all frantic about 1 or 2 spots. As long as we don’t take Keim time risks we should end up with a couple premium starters. But will congratulate Texans on the sound draft strategy of giving up every thing for the best players in the draft On both sides of the ball. Either one could be a star changer, it was a solid risk and paying off.
 

BACH

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This ESPN article is where I got it:

ESPN Playoffs
I'm reading everywhere else that the Jags control the division. This is from PFT. "Kirk can practice with the team for the next three weeks as a result of the move, but he can be activated at any point in that span so he could play against the Titans this Sunday. The Jaguars will win the AFC South with a victory in that game."
 

TheCardFan

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We will know tonight if Texans pick is going to be top 17 (if they lose).
As stated on another post - could be as high as 14 (if they lose) but we won't know that until Sunday night.

If they win tonight...
But lose wild card round - it would be picks 21-24
Win wild card round but lose in divisional game - 25-28
 

Cheesebeef

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I'm reading everywhere else that the Jags control the division. This is from PFT. "Kirk can practice with the team for the next three weeks as a result of the move, but he can be activated at any point in that span so he could play against the Titans this Sunday. The Jaguars will win the AFC South with a victory in that game."
Texans get the last wild card spot if they win/
 
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