2024 Draft Countdown/NFL Prospects thread

Chopper0080

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Obviously Dan is more knowledgeable than I am, but this is tough for me to see. Caleb actively chose to not play with timing and inside the scheme. Maybe USC didn't have the talent to play that way, but that also isn't how much of QB play is at the NFL level.
 

Chopper0080

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kerouac9

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That's 3 guys drafted between 2016 and 2020, and Justin Madubuike is nowhere near the same league as the other 2. He's Zach Allen apart from last season.

And Chris Jones was the 36th pick so really pushing the later rounds narrative there.

The hit rate to bust rate is probably higher at DT than any other position.

Fox Sports Top 10 DTs are,

Aaron Donald #13
Chris Jones #36
Quinnen Williams #3
Javon Hargrave #89
Jeffery Simmons #19
Dexter Lawrence #17
Cam Heyward #31
Christian Wilkins #13
Jon Allen #17
Vita Vea #12

If you want to extend it and add those from PFN not listed here you can add

DeForest Buckner #7
Kenny Clark #27
DJ Reader #166
Daron Payne #13
Derrick Brown #7
Dalvin Tomlinson #55
Leonard Williams #6
Ed Oliver #9

It's extremely rare to get a top DT that isn't a top 40 pick.

If you want to go later your ceiling is guys like Grover Stewart, David Onyemata or Justin Madubuike. If you want to wait 3 years for a Justin Madubuike to take off then fair enough, I'd rather go higher for DT's personally.

It's certainly nothing to do with scouts. Otherwise everyone has bad scouts.
I file DT above but close to Safety among positions where you need adequate players to thrive but not top players. We have Dante Stills and a bunch of guys who barely have a pulse at IDL right now; we're still at the warm bodies stage while we find an Edge who can sack the QB more than five times a year.

There are 50+ starting-quality IDL in the NFL; they're not all drafted in the top 35 picks. This team isn't contending for a championship in 2024... I don't mind developing one while we acquire players at higher-value positions.

Mike Pennel started in the Super Bowl, bruv. Alim McNeil started in the NFC Championship game. Tyson Alualu started in the NFC Championship game at age 36.
 

Krangodnzr

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That's 3 guys drafted between 2016 and 2020, and Justin Madubuike is nowhere near the same league as the other 2. He's Zach Allen apart from last season.

And Chris Jones was the 36th pick so really pushing the later rounds narrative there.

The hit rate to bust rate is probably higher at DT than any other position.

Fox Sports Top 10 DTs are,

Aaron Donald #13
Chris Jones #36
Quinnen Williams #3
Javon Hargrave #89
Jeffery Simmons #19
Dexter Lawrence #17
Cam Heyward #31
Christian Wilkins #13
Jon Allen #17
Vita Vea #12

If you want to extend it and add those from PFN not listed here you can add

DeForest Buckner #7
Kenny Clark #27
DJ Reader #166
Daron Payne #13
Derrick Brown #7
Dalvin Tomlinson #55
Leonard Williams #6
Ed Oliver #9

It's extremely rare to get a top DT that isn't a top 40 pick.

If you want to go later your ceiling is guys like Grover Stewart, David Onyemata or Justin Madubuike. If you want to wait 3 years for a Justin Madubuike to take off then fair enough, I'd rather go higher for DT's personally.

It's certainly nothing to do with scouts. Otherwise everyone has bad scouts.
The difference in Sweat and all of the other DTs drafted round one is that they all offered more pass rush. That factor is vitally important.
 

Krangodnzr

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I hate to tell you, but most of the guys drafted around there would be considered poor resource management by you. It's not like teams always get stars at the end of the 1st round.
It's a bad idea to draft a run stopping DT high, period. I would take a DT, but not a guy who is mostly a run stopper.

The pass and affecting the pass is how the NFL is won and lost.
 

Krangodnzr

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I file DT above but close to Safety among positions where you need adequate players to thrive but not top players. We have Dante Stills and a bunch of guys who barely have a pulse at IDL right now; we're still at the warm bodies stage while we find an Edge who can sack the QB more than five times a year.

There are 50+ starting-quality IDL in the NFL; they're not all drafted in the top 35 picks. This team isn't contending for a championship in 2024... I don't mind developing one while we acquire players at higher-value positions.

Mike Pennel started in the Super Bowl, bruv. Alim McNeil started in the NFC Championship game. Tyson Alualu started in the NFC Championship game at age 36.
This.

This draft has tons of DTs that are worth a draft pick round two and later. DeWayne Carter is one. McKinley Jackson is another. This draft will probably produce five or six guys that are starter quality, you don't have to use a first rounder to fill the position.

I know the position seems a bit desperate, but hopefully that desperation doesn't turn towards reaching to fill positions.
 

Mulli

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This.

This draft has tons of DTs that are worth a draft pick round two and later. DeWayne Carter is one. McKinley Jackson is another. This draft will probably produce five or six guys that are starter quality, you don't have to use a first rounder to fill the position.

I know the position seems a bit desperate, but hopefully that desperation doesn't turn towards reaching to fill positions.
Can they just not wait until the 7th to draft Michael Dogbe to address the position? :)
 

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I file DT above but close to Safety among positions where you need adequate players to thrive but not top players. We have Dante Stills and a bunch of guys who barely have a pulse at IDL right now; we're still at the warm bodies stage while we find an Edge who can sack the QB more than five times a year.

There are 50+ starting-quality IDL in the NFL; they're not all drafted in the top 35 picks. This team isn't contending for a championship in 2024... I don't mind developing one while we acquire players at higher-value positions.

Mike Pennel started in the Super Bowl, bruv. Alim McNeil started in the NFC Championship game. Tyson Alualu started in the NFC Championship game at age 36.

I'm confused. Are we talking about wanting good players or just some dudes? I mean, if you just want bodies there are bodies everywhere. Although I'm pretty sure if we went into the season with Mike Pennel in our starting lineup you would have a meltdown.

Mike Pennel played 3 games last year and registered 4 tackles and a TFL, I'm not sure that's the best example.

And Alim McNeill is a good player. One of the very rare examples of a later round hit (#72).
 

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This.

This draft has tons of DTs that are worth a draft pick round two and later. DeWayne Carter is one. McKinley Jackson is another. This draft will probably produce five or six guys that are starter quality, you don't have to use a first rounder to fill the position.

I know the position seems a bit desperate, but hopefully that desperation doesn't turn towards reaching to fill positions.

Who said anything about reaching?

Guys like Carter and Jackson are going to be Leki Fotu and Rashard Lawrence.

Do we not want very good DT's? If we do you have to draft them high to have a good chance of them being anything better than those guys.
 

kerouac9

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Who said anything about reaching?

Guys like Carter and Jackson are going to be Leki Fotu and Rashard Lawrence.

Do we not want very good DT's? If we do you have to draft them high to have a good chance of them being anything better than those guys.

This is true of literally every position in the league. It's about how to prioritize the fixed draft capital compared to the more flexible cap dollars.

I want better guys than the ones we had last season. I don't need All Pros at IDL, but my guy Quinnen Williams hasn't exactly lead the Jets anywhere. There are more efficient routes to competitiveness.
 

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This is true of literally every position in the league. It's about how to prioritize the fixed draft capital compared to the more flexible cap dollars.

I want better guys than the ones we had last season. I don't need All Pros at IDL, but my guy Quinnen Williams hasn't exactly lead the Jets anywhere. There are more efficient routes to competitiveness.

It's not really. There are loads of great WR's from the lower rounds. Half the top 15 receivers are none 1st round picks. Many late day 2 or day 3.

Same goes for most positions.

There are two positions where the best players are dominated by top 40 picks and that is QB and DT.

The odds of getting a great DT outside the top 40 are far lower that getting a great WR, as an example.
 

kerouac9

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There are two positions where the best players are dominated by top 40 picks and that is QB and DT.

The odds of getting a great DT outside the top 40 are far lower that getting a great WR, as an example.
I'd look at Edge rushers, also.

I don't care as much about getting a "great" DT right now because it's not as important as having great players at more valuable positions. That changes if we have a guy who can rush the passer or a guy who can catch for 1200 yards or a starting right tackle or play 16 games at perimeter corner.

We don't have any of those things. Like with the OG conversation, the gap between Derrick Brown and Zach Allen is much smaller than the one between DJ Moore and Rondale Moore.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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You ain't getting a Vita Vea, Dexter Lawrence or Christian Wilkins in the later rounds.
The whole “you can find good players at this position later” argument is valid for virtually EVERY position other than QB. So I am just going to ignore it from now on. You want the best shot at the best at any position? Take him as high as your grade suggests.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Justin Madubuike was drafted in the third round. Chris Jones was drafted in the second. Javon Hargrave was drafted in the third.

Players are available throughout the draft. Even good players. You just have to have good scouts.
But that’s true about ALL positions other than QB. It’s ultimately all about your GMs ability to identify talent.
 

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The whole “you can find good players at this position later” argument is valid for virtually EVERY position other than QB. So I am just going to ignore it from now on. You want the best shot at the best at any position? Take him as high as your grade suggests.
Or higher if you are the Cardinals. hEyo!
 

Krangodnzr

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The whole “you can find good players at this position later” argument is valid for virtually EVERY position other than QB. So I am just going to ignore it from now on. You want the best shot at the best at any position? Take him as high as your grade suggests.
It's not just about "good players", it's about good players and relative impact on a football game.

A B+ WR has a much larger impact on a football game than an A NT. This is math and analytics here. It's not exactly arcane.
 

Krangodnzr

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The whole “you can find good players at this position later” argument is valid for virtually EVERY position other than QB. So I am just going to ignore it from now on. You want the best shot at the best at any position? Take him as high as your grade suggests.
To expand a bit more, I think that defining what positions matter the most in the NFL is a good exercise.

1. QB. This is an obvious answer. I think to win a championship with league average QB play, you would need five All Pros on your offense to compensate.

2. LT. This is my personal view, but it's shifting a bit because teams move edge around a lot in the modern NFL . This is my traditional view, but I think the next position is overtaking it...

3. WR. To maximize the effectiveness of a QB, having a top WR can really cause issues for a defense since they have to routinely have two defenders cover top WRs.

4. Edge. Great edge players can just wreck a blocking scheme and give coverage players the luxury of not having to cover receivers as long.

5. CB. Obviously stopping receivers and the degrading the QBs ability to dissect a defense is very important.

There are ways to mitigate less talent at some of these positions however. We've seen teams in the past that have a group of B+ pass rushers be able to apply constant pressure. We've seen teams skimp on CB because their pass rushers are so good.

I don't necessarily believe in a fully dogmatic approach, but if you identify needs at any of these five positions, you have to use your resources to get better. Keim didn't do that, and he doubled down on dumb when a player didn't work out.

Also, I fully believe that not just round one should be devoted to filling these positions, but also round two as well. I'm okay with taking a guard round three, but in rounds 2 and 3, there is virtually always a player from a higher impact position available.
 

kerouac9

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Also, I fully believe that not just round one should be devoted to filling these positions, but also round two as well. I'm okay with taking a guard round three, but in rounds 2 and 3, there is virtually always a player from a higher impact position available.
I would argue that you don't have the foundation for a team without players you can depend on at all of these positions. Guys you're invested in for 3+ years.
 
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