2023 2nd round #41 pick is BJ Ojulari LB

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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How so? My point is that people were trying to put the bust label on DJ too since we had a 1st rounder that wasn't playing.
Major differences. First Reddick WAS a bust for the position we selected and were playing him at.

Second hump literally did not play a down his rookie season. Bj did and underwhelmed.
 

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I think about 6-8 sacks would be nice. I don't expect (or think he can be) anything more than a solid #2 pass rusher. We still need that #1.

I was bored and looked into the 24 players who ended up with 10 or more sacks this year. Here's some breakdown:

Seasons Played
1-2: 4 (Hitchinson (Rd 1), Thibodeaux (Rd 1), Karlaftis (Rd1), Walker (Rd 1))
3-4: 4 (Parsons (Rd 1), Madubuike (Rd 3), Greenard (Rd 3), Huff (Undrafted))
5-6: 5
7-8: 9
9-10: 2

Round Drafted
1: 14
2: 2
3: 4
4: 1
5: 0
6: 0
7: 1
Undrafted: 2


- Pretty top-heavy (as expected). Only players with 10+ sacks last year, in one of their first two years in the league, were drafted in the 1st round and 3 of them were top 5 picks.
- Interesting that only 8 of the 24 players were in their first 4 years in the league. Seems the sacks really start building up years 5-8
- I'm sure I'll be chastised for only looking at last year, but someone else can do a deeper dive if they want.

Thus, Ojulari getting 10+ sacks next year would buck any trend we saw from last year.

Full Table:

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Stout

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If we’re picking anywhere between 10-20 then I don’t know what other premium-position need could be big outside of IDL.

Way too early to judge this front office. Haven’t even started their 2nd season yet.
I'm not judging the front office overall yet. At edge, we absolutely know they haven't done enough yet. Two offseasons (soon to be) and we have major question marks over the entire room with only one guy we're kinda hoping will get 7-8 sacks.
 

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Boye Mafe from the Seahawks seems to be a good target comp (statistically at least).

- Drafted Rd 2 Pick #40 in 2022
- 3 Sacks his rookie year
- 9 sacks year #2
- Note: Mafe played year #2 at 24/25 years old. BJ will play his at 22
 

Stout

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Boye Mafe from the Seahawks seems to be a good target comp (statistically at least).

- Drafted Rd 2 Pick #40 in 2022
- 3 Sacks his rookie year
- 9 sacks year #2
- Note: Mafe played year #2 at 24/25 years old. BJ will play his at 22
Age means nothing here. If it takes him longer to develop because he's young, that's actually a negative because he'll be out of team control or we'll have to shell out big bucks if he finally kicks it into gear in his contract year.

We needed edge yesterday; we drafted edge kinda hopefully maybe for a few years down the road.
 

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Age means nothing here. If it takes him longer to develop because he's young, that's actually a negative because he'll be out of team control or we'll have to shell out big bucks if he finally kicks it into gear in his contract year.

We needed edge yesterday; we drafted edge kinda hopefully maybe for a few years down the road.
If we need to shell out big bucks because we drafted/developed a home-grown superstar you won't see me complaining. I also think it's perfectly acceptable to call out a difference in age especially, as shown in the chart a couple posts above, it seems mid 20s is the sweet spot for elite sack totals.

Yes, we needed edge yesterday. Only way to get an immediate impact edge, it seems, is to draft one super early or shell out in free agency. We also needed WR & OT yesterday as well and those are filled. I don't think anyone is saying edge isn't a big hole on our team. If we filled that gap (presumably in the draft last year w/ Anderson) we'd be left with an equivalent hole at OT or WR this year (assuming with Humphrey's injury we would've been forced to go with Alt instead of MHJ - though we're quickly getting into butterfly effect territory and I don't want to get into that rabbit hole).
 

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Major differences. First Reddick WAS a bust for the position we selected and were playing him at.

Second hump literally did not play a down his rookie season. Bj did and underwhelmed.
Of course there will be differences. There are differences with every player you compare. The overall point still remains.
 

dreamcastrocks

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Age means nothing here. If it takes him longer to develop because he's young, that's actually a negative because he'll be out of team control or we'll have to shell out big bucks if he finally kicks it into gear in his contract year.

We needed edge yesterday; we drafted edge kinda hopefully maybe for a few years down the road.
Age always means something. Either good or bad.
 

dreamcastrocks

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People keep bringing this up. For me, a Cards fan, why should this be important for how I judge the 2024 performance of our top pass rush prospect?
Because people learn, mature, age at different ages? Players in the same draft aren't the same age?
 

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People keep bringing this up. For me, a Cards fan, why should this be important for how I judge the 2024 performance of our top pass rush prospect?
I post multiple things showing sack stats across players based on their years in the league, where they're drafted etc. to try to add to the conversation on how many sacks we want out of Ojulari this year...

And all people pick up on is one little side note I made comparing Ojulari's age to Boye Mafe as a player I think would be a good statistical comp for a 2nd year jump (that we should be happy with).

Don't know why I'm surprised.
 

kerouac9

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Because people learn, mature, age at different ages? Players in the same draft aren't the same age?
So? He can either do the job as a primary or secondary pass rusher in 2024 or he can’t. I’m a Cardinal fan; my interest in Beej only extends to how he can contribute to the Cardinals success.

This was the argument about The Captain I never understood. Good for him that he reached his second contract younger than most, and was younger when up for his third contract.

Zero bearing on whether he can play the role as a starting caliber pass rusher.
 

WakeForestCard

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All DL & LB (this captures some ILB so sorry about that, not about to look in-depth about players I don't know) drafted in the first two rounds starting with 2020 with their associated year-by-year sack totals.

No big takeaway just interesting to look at.

Orange = 7-10 sacks
Green = More than 10 sacks

2020

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2021
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2022
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2023
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Stout

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If we need to shell out big bucks because we drafted/developed a home-grown superstar you won't see me complaining. I also think it's perfectly acceptable to call out a difference in age especially, as shown in the chart a couple posts above, it seems mid 20s is the sweet spot for elite sack totals.

Yes, we needed edge yesterday. Only way to get an immediate impact edge, it seems, is to draft one super early or shell out in free agency. We also needed WR & OT yesterday as well and those are filled. I don't think anyone is saying edge isn't a big hole on our team. If we filled that gap (presumably in the draft last year w/ Anderson) we'd be left with an equivalent hole at OT or WR this year (assuming with Humphrey's injury we would've been forced to go with Alt instead of MHJ - though we're quickly getting into butterfly effect territory and I don't want to get into that rabbit hole).
Exactly. His age is nothing but a hinderance for us at the moment, unless (if he does hit big) we get him tied down to a long-term contract. If the problem is he is too young and raw, that wouldn't set us up well at all. That would have him spend the bulk of his contract acclimatizing and developing just in time to leave and be good elsewhere.
 

Stout

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Age always means something. Either good or bad.
Exactly. BJ's ages is definitely a negative for us. The only way it works in our favor is if he hits a perfect sweet spot of showing just enough for us to invest long-term at a team friendly deal right before he gets great but without him getting great right at the end of his rookie deal so we don't have to worry about franchising/paying a fortune. I agree that a top edge is worth a fortune, but in the ideal world you get high production on a rookie deal. His age might well prevent any of that benefit.

It's a case of ifs, for sure. Let's hope it doesn't play out like that :thumbup:
 

MadCardDisease

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Because the sample size isn’t big enough.

Beej’s brother was so bad in year three (2.5 sacks) the Giants had to back up the Brinks truck for Brian Burns.

Ebikete “lead” the worst pass rush in the NFL last season.

Well, we are talking about year 2 of a pass rushers production, and all of those players have completed year 2. So I don't see why you wouldn't include it if we are talking about production from pass rushers selected in the second round during their second season. It's not like the stats from these player's second season are going to change.
 

phillycard

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I think about 6-8 sacks would be nice. I don't expect (or think he can be) anything more than a solid #2 pass rusher. We still need that #1.

I was bored and looked into the 24 players who ended up with 10 or more sacks this year. Here's some breakdown:

Seasons Played
1-2: 4 (Hitchinson (Rd 1), Thibodeaux (Rd 1), Karlaftis (Rd1), Walker (Rd 1))
3-4: 4 (Parsons (Rd 1), Madubuike (Rd 3), Greenard (Rd 3), Huff (Undrafted))
5-6: 5
7-8: 9
9-10: 2

Round Drafted
1: 14
2: 2
3: 4
4: 1
5: 0
6: 0
7: 1
Undrafted: 2


- Pretty top-heavy (as expected). Only players with 10+ sacks last year, in one of their first two years in the league, were drafted in the 1st round and 3 of them were top 5 picks.
- Interesting that only 8 of the 24 players were in their first 4 years in the league. Seems the sacks really start building up years 5-8
- I'm sure I'll be chastised for only looking at last year, but someone else can do a deeper dive if they want.

Thus, Ojulari getting 10+ sacks next year would buck any trend we saw from last year.

Full Table:

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Maxx Crosby was a 4th round pick?? Wow. Did not know that.
 

Krangodnzr

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Major differences. First Reddick WAS a bust for the position we selected and were playing him at.

Second hump literally did not play a down his rookie season. Bj did and underwhelmed.
He was initially tried at Edge (because of injuries) though during his rookie season and was awful.
 

Harry

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Way too early to give up on an athlete this good. The key will be if he shows better strength. He already has enough agility and burst to be effective. I expect the D-line to show more inside push, which should make the rush on the outside more successful. I labeled him a project in year one and he met my expectations. I expect about 8 sacks this season.
 

oaken1

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Okay, but doesn't really change my point, does it?

Then there's Humphries that couldn't see the field at all as a rookie due to coaching decision. (which is worse than being injured and young) He turned out to arguably be our best LT of all time.

Again, I'm not saying BJ will be a late bloomer and turn it all around. I just think it is too early to say for sure. (Even if he only gets 6 sacks this year)
And dude is STILL younger than most of our rookies.

That rookie contract for Beej is nearly all just OJT. I don't expect we will see who he really is as a player until it's about expired... the key IMNSHO is to see continuous growth from him.
I think I would be pretty happy with 7 sacks from him this season if they came with a dozen hits, a couple dozen pressures and a handful of TFL's
 

oaken1

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I think about 6-8 sacks would be nice. I don't expect (or think he can be) anything more than a solid #2 pass rusher. We still need that #1.

I was bored and looked into the 24 players who ended up with 10 or more sacks this year. Here's some breakdown:

Seasons Played
1-2: 4 (Hitchinson (Rd 1), Thibodeaux (Rd 1), Karlaftis (Rd1), Walker (Rd 1))
3-4: 4 (Parsons (Rd 1), Madubuike (Rd 3), Greenard (Rd 3), Huff (Undrafted))
5-6: 5
7-8: 9
9-10: 2

Round Drafted
1: 14
2: 2
3: 4
4: 1
5: 0
6: 0
7: 1
Undrafted: 2


- Pretty top-heavy (as expected). Only players with 10+ sacks last year, in one of their first two years in the league, were drafted in the 1st round and 3 of them were top 5 picks.
- Interesting that only 8 of the 24 players were in their first 4 years in the league. Seems the sacks really start building up years 5-8
- I'm sure I'll be chastised for only looking at last year, but someone else can do a deeper dive if they want.

Thus, Ojulari getting 10+ sacks next year would buck any trend we saw from last year.

Full Table:

You must be registered for see images attach
Clearly 100 to 110 is the sweet spot for pass rushers outside the first round.
 

dreamcastrocks

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And dude is STILL younger than most of our rookies.

That rookie contract for Beej is nearly all just OJT. I don't expect we will see who he really is as a player until it's about expired... the key IMNSHO is to see continuous growth from him.
I think I would be pretty happy with 7 sacks from him this season if they came with a dozen hits, a couple dozen pressures and a handful of TFL's
I guess you are supposed to have it all figured out, as soon as you draft number is called. No matter the circumstances...
 

Krangodnzr

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Way too early to give up on an athlete this good. The key will be if he shows better strength. He already has enough agility and burst to be effective. I expect the D-line to show more inside push, which should make the rush on the outside more successful. I labeled him a project in year one and he met my expectations. I expect about 8 sacks this season.
This. A younger player always carries the short term risk that the NFL might have too many more developed guys and you struggle a bit.

Ojulari was the youngest player in the 2023 draft and he's now physically a year ahead of the guys who were still in college last year.

I think 8 sacks is the benchmark, but what I really want to see more is consistent pressure.
 

kerouac9

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Well, we are talking about year 2 of a pass rushers production, and all of those players have completed year 2. So I don't see why you wouldn't include it if we are talking about production from pass rushers selected in the second round during their second season. It's not like the stats from these player's second season are going to change.
Because I’m looking for sustainable success in pass rushers, not a sugar rush. Thats why I rated whether the player turned out to be good. A single data point doesn’t mean much to me—for example, with the guys from Buffalo and Seattle who were mid second-year players but turned out pretty good.

It’s bizarre that perspective matters only sometimes with people who only want to make cheap points instead of have a real conversation.
 
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