2023 2nd round #41 pick is BJ Ojulari LB

MadCardDisease

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That would basically keep up the sack rate he had his rookie season, which I think we all agree was disappointing. This is the assertion that I was wondering about:



It might be objectively true, but it's also objectively true that about half of second-round pass rushers never amount to anything. So, let's look back at some edges taken in the second round since 2020, determine if they're Actually Good, and how many sacks they had in their second season:

2020
Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 3.5.
Darrell Taylor (SEA) - Good? Yes. Sacks in 2nd season? 9.5.
A.J. Epenesa (BUF) - Good? Maybe. Four starts in four seasons, but 13 sacks combined in the past two years. Sacks in 2nd season? 1.5.
Josh Uche (NE) - Good? Probably. Three starts in four seasons, but 11.5 sacks in 2022 and 18.5 sacks in his career. Sacks in 2nd season? 3.0.

2019
Ben Banogu (IND) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.

2018
Harold Landry (TEN) - Good? Yes. Sacks in 2nd season? 9.
Uchenna Nwosu (SEA) - Good? Yes. Sacks in 2nd season? 2.
Tyquan Lewis (IND) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.

2017
Tyus Bowser (BAL) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.5.
Ryan Anderson (WAS) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.
Tanoh Kpassagnon (KC) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.

2016
Emmanuel Ogbah (CLE) - Good? Yes. Sacks in 2nd season? 4.
Kevin Dodd (TEN) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.
Noah Spence (TB) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 1.
Kamalei Correa (BAL) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.
Jihad Ward (OAK) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 1.

WOOF. Man, what this exercise taught me is that you don't find good edge players in the second round very often. Some of these guys I said were not good are still bouncing around the NFL, but it's extremely unlikely that Beej turns into anything more than a complementary pass rusher who can get 5 sacks a season on average.

Just brutal.
Yep but why start in 2020 and not in 2022?

2022
Arnold Ebiketie (ATL) Sacks in 2nd season? 6
Boye Mafe (SEA) Sacks in 2nd season? 9
Sam Williams (DAL) Sacks in 2nd season? 4.5
Nick Bonitto (SFO) Sacks in 2nd season? 8

2021
Azeez Ojulari (NYG) Sacks in 2nd season? 5.5
Dayo Odeyingbo (IND) Sacks in 2nd season? 5


So it is not all doom and gloom for pash rushers selected in the 2nd round.
 

Stout

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Only depending if one is available...a team needs more than one
No, depending on many factors. If we suck and are drafting near the top of the draft, QB becomes more important. If the edge class sucks, it might not be a good idea. If there are better players on the board when we pick...the list of "it depends" situations is long.
 

kerouac9

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Yep but why start in 2020 and not in 2022?

2022
Arnold Ebiketie (ATL) Sacks in 2nd season? 6
Boye Mafe (SEA) Sacks in 2nd season? 9
Sam Williams (DAL) Sacks in 2nd season? 4.5
Nick Bonitto (SFO) Sacks in 2nd season? 8

2021
Azeez Ojulari (NYG) Sacks in 2nd season? 5.5
Dayo Odeyingbo (IND) Sacks in 2nd season? 5


So it is not all doom and gloom for pash rushers selected in the 2nd round.
Because the sample size isn’t big enough.

Beej’s brother was so bad in year three (2.5 sacks) the Giants had to back up the Brinks truck for Brian Burns.

Ebikete “lead” the worst pass rush in the NFL last season.
 

DVontel

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No, depending on many factors. If we suck and are drafting near the top of the draft, QB becomes more important. If the edge class sucks, it might not be a good idea. If there are better players on the board when we pick...the list of "it depends" situations is long.
Wouldn’t all the “depends” apply the same even if BJ doesn’t live up to the expectations you have for him?
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Maybe. People said the same thing about Reddick though, and he didn't break out until his what 5th year? People are way to quit to throw the bust label out there, even if statistics are on their side.
Lol we weren’t asking to play edge in second season.
 

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That would be bust level imo.
What is a good number for him to not be a disappointment? I think 7-8 is the goal. I see a lot of people thinking its either 10 or bust, but that just doesnt seem realistic for a 2nd round pick. Most years there are only between 15-22 players in the league that reach 10 sacks, with the majority being players selected very high in the first round.

It would be amazing if he turned into a superstar of course.
 

BritCard

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Eight sacks should be the expectation. Ten to 12 sacks should be the goal.

45 players had 8 or more sacks last year. 24 had 10 or more.

Basing it all on sacks is a bit basic.

I'd rather he have,

7 sacks, 8 PDs, 3 FFs, 12 TFLs, 18 QB Hits and 40 pressures than,

10 sacks, 4 PDs, 1 FF, 8 TFLs, 12 QB Hits and 23 pressures.

Basically we want him affecting the game. Whether that's in sacks, run stops, consistently pressuring the QB or batting down passes doesn't really matter.
 

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Wouldn’t all the “depends” apply the same even if BJ doesn’t live up to the expectations you have for him?
If BJ doesn't live up to expectations, edge goes much higher up the needs list, sure. Which would be wholly depressing. If BJ becomes a double-digit sack guy, edge falls down the needs list proportionally.
 

Stout

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Eight sacks should be the expectation. Ten to 12 sacks should be the goal.

45 players had 8 or more sacks last year. 24 had 10 or more.
Bingo. Not attaining double-digits wouldn't necessarily make him a bust, but it would be a big disappointment. If he can't make 8 sacks, I got nothing for him.
 

DVontel

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edge falls down the needs list proportionally.
I just don’t think this should be true. Who do we even have as a pass-rushing threat other Ojulari? Gardeck? Collins? Day 3 rookie Xavier Thomas? I’m not a big believer in Robinson as a high multi-sack guy.

EDGE, for this team, should be the #1 list of needs whether BJ plays like a JAG or Julius Peppers. We need more than just him.
 

Stout

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I just don’t think this should be true. Who do we even have as a pass-rushing threat other Ojulari? Gardeck? Collins? Day 3 rookie Xavier Thomas? I’m not a big believer in Robinson as a high multi-sack guy.

EDGE, for this team, should be the #1 list of needs whether BJ plays like a JAG or Julius Peppers. We need more than just him.
We have no idea what needs will emerge over the course of the season. I don't disagree that edge will likely be one of the top needs, and possibly the tippy top. I do agree that we need more than just him, and the fact that he's all we have to pin our hopes on is damning to this and the past front office.
 

DVontel

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We have no idea what needs will emerge over the course of the season.
If we’re picking anywhere between 10-20 then I don’t know what other premium-position need could be big outside of IDL.
hopes on is damning to this
Way too early to judge this front office. Haven’t even started their 2nd season yet.
 

kerouac9

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I do agree that we need more than just him, and the fact that he's all we have to pin our hopes on is damning to this and the past front office.
In another timeline, Cam Thomas and Myjai Sanders are evolving into their final forms this season. Keim did not leave the cupboard as bare at the position as you’re implying; we just decided not to develop these young players.
 

dreamcastrocks

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Lol we weren’t asking to play edge in second season.
Okay, but doesn't really change my point, does it?

Then there's Humphries that couldn't see the field at all as a rookie due to coaching decision. (which is worse than being injured and young) He turned out to arguably be our best LT of all time.

Again, I'm not saying BJ will be a late bloomer and turn it all around. I just think it is too early to say for sure. (Even if he only gets 6 sacks this year)
 

dreamcastrocks

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In another timeline, Cam Thomas and Myjai Sanders are evolving into their final forms this season. Keim did not leave the cupboard as bare at the position as you’re implying; we just decided not to develop these young players.
Or the players weren't good enough to be developed. He definitely tried to 'set the edge.'
 

kerouac9

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Okay, but doesn't really change my point, does it?

Then there's Humphries that couldn't see the field at all as a rookie due to coaching decision. (which is worse than being injured and young) He turned out to arguably be our best LT of all time.

Again, I'm not saying BJ will be a late bloomer and turn it all around. I just think it is too early to say for sure. (Even if he only gets 6 sacks this year)
He was a bust at ILB. He salvaged his career when moved to Edge. It’s a non sequitur when discussing Beej.

Same with Hump. I probably ended up more wrong about The Captain than I’ve been about any Cards draft pick. He probably did need time to mature, but we also didn’t get much out of him through his rookie deal.

No one here is saying Beej is a bust, but there’s a lot more magical thinking going on about how he’ll provide the Cards with the pass rush help they need than there is about Michael Wilson or even Garrett Williams, who played even less than Beej as a rook.
 

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Or the players weren't good enough to be developed. He definitely tried to 'set the edge.'
Maybe. We’ll never know. Crazy that the staff can know about Thomas and Sanders in a few practices but also we must be patient with Beej.

Not a double standard at all.
 

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Maybe. We’ll never know. Crazy that the staff can know about Thomas and Sanders in a few practices but also we must be patient with Beej.

Not a double standard at all.
Except that if a player has been cut, (Thomas hasn't yet) then I am more okay with that.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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What is a good number for him to not be a disappointment? I think 7-8 is the goal. I see a lot of people thinking its either 10 or bust, but that just doesnt seem realistic for a 2nd round pick. Most years there are only between 15-22 players in the league that reach 10 sacks, with the majority being players selected very high in the first round.

It would be amazing if he turned into a superstar of course.
8
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Basing it all on sacks is a bit basic.

I'd rather he have,

7 sacks, 8 PDs, 3 FFs, 12 TFLs, 18 QB Hits and 40 pressures than,

10 sacks, 4 PDs, 1 FF, 8 TFLs, 12 QB Hits and 23 pressures.

Basically we want him affecting the game. Whether that's in sacks, run stops, consistently pressuring the QB or batting down passes doesn't really matter.
If the disparity in other numbers is that big I’d take the 7 sack line
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Okay, but doesn't really change my point, does it?

Then there's Humphries that couldn't see the field at all as a rookie due to coaching decision. (which is worse than being injured and young) He turned out to arguably be our best LT of all time.

Again, I'm not saying BJ will be a late bloomer and turn it all around. I just think it is too early to say for sure. (Even if he only gets 6 sacks this year)
What?!? It COMPLETELY changed your point.
 

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