2023 2nd round #41 pick is BJ Ojulari LB

cardpa

Have a Nice Day!
Joined
Mar 14, 2003
Posts
7,336
Reaction score
4,011
Location
Monroe NC
I'm going to give him this year to see if he can make some significant steps forward. He's just turned 22 in April and his play in the last 4 games started to show some promise. If his game doesn't move to the next level, then I'll say maybe he's going to be no more than a journeyman player who is good enough to fill roster depth and not much else.
 

kerouac9

Klowned by Keim
Joined
Feb 14, 2003
Posts
37,426
Reaction score
27,629
Location
Gilbert, AZ
He's just turned 22 in April and his play in the last 4 games started to show some promise.
Zero sacks in his last seven games and he only topped 50% of the snaps in the last two. One pressure in the last four games. What did you see exactly?
 

dreamcastrocks

Chopped Liver Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Posts
46,069
Reaction score
11,611
Zero sacks in his last seven games and he only topped 50% of the snaps in the last two. One pressure in the last four games. What did you see exactly?
I saw some flashes too, even if they weren't super bright.

I wouldn't say he is toast either. Where would you place the O/U on sacks for BJ this year? (I'd probably put it at 5.5)
 

Stout

Hold onto the ball, Murray!
Joined
Dec 30, 2002
Posts
38,512
Reaction score
21,549
Location
Pittsburgh, PA--Enemy territory!
I saw some flashes too, even if they weren't super bright.

I wouldn't say he is toast either. Where would you place the O/U on sacks for BJ this year? (I'd probably put it at 5.5)
That is an incredibly depressing number. The way Monti built this defense, Ojulari 100 percent has to be the stud pass rusher to emerge on this defense. Anything less and the defense is toast in the passing game. Unfair on the kid, yeah, but there it is. And, regardless of the situation, I expect more than that from a 2nd-year, high 2nd-round pick.
 

kerouac9

Klowned by Keim
Joined
Feb 14, 2003
Posts
37,426
Reaction score
27,629
Location
Gilbert, AZ
Where would you place the O/U on sacks for BJ this year? (I'd probably put it at 5.5)
As a prediction? Getting two more sacks than he had as a rookie should be a depressingly low bar.

The factors everyone is noting — more playing time, youth, a full camp and offseason — are real reasons that a non-scrub player should be more productive in his second season. Anything less than eight sacks in 2024 should indicate real trouble—either because he can’t get on the field or because he can’t make plays when he’s out there.
 

dreamcastrocks

Chopped Liver Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Posts
46,069
Reaction score
11,611
That is an incredibly depressing number. The way Monti built this defense, Ojulari 100 percent has to be the stud pass rusher to emerge on this defense. Anything less and the defense is toast in the passing game. Unfair on the kid, yeah, but there it is. And, regardless of the situation, I expect more than that from a 2nd-year, high 2nd-round pick.

As a prediction? Getting two more sacks than he had as a rookie should be a depressingly low bar.

The factors everyone is noting — more playing time, youth, a full camp and offseason — are real reasons that a non-scrub player should be more productive in his second season. Anything less than eight sacks in 2024 should indicate real trouble—either because he can’t get on the field or because he can’t make plays when he’s out there.
Considering his production so far, you would expect it to be a lower number.
 

MadCardDisease

Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
20,061
Reaction score
12,563
Location
Chandler, Az
That would be a failure. Kid's gotta produce this year and not 5 or 6 sacks. If we need to use a 1st/2nd rounder again next year, JFC, what are we even doing at the position? He's gotta come good.

Most 2nd round Pass Rushers average between 4-6 sacks in their second year. Obviously there are always exceptions, but I think I'm taking the over on 5.5 just based on opportunity alone.
 

CardNots

ASFN Lifer
Joined
Sep 12, 2002
Posts
4,024
Reaction score
3,662
Location
Jenks, Oklahoma
That would be a failure. Kid's gotta produce this year and not 5 or 6 sacks. If we need to use a 1st/2nd rounder again next year, JFC, what are we even doing at the position? He's gotta come good.
We’ll use a 1st or 2nd on edge in next year’s draft.

Good to great edge selections in the first round. I’m expecting an investment in one regardless of Ojulari’s upcoming season performance.
 
Last edited:

MadCardDisease

Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 13, 2002
Posts
20,061
Reaction score
12,563
Location
Chandler, Az
What is this based on? Vibes?

Based on if BJ stays healthy for a 17 game season averaging about 35-40 snaps per game. He got 4 sacks last season as a rookie coming off an injury that caused him to miss most of the offseason. So figure a full offseason of working out and practicing with the team along with him hitting the field running from game 1. I think adding 2 more sacks to his total, giving him 6 sacks, shouldn't be out of the question.
 

kerouac9

Klowned by Keim
Joined
Feb 14, 2003
Posts
37,426
Reaction score
27,629
Location
Gilbert, AZ
Based on if BJ stays healthy for a 17 game season averaging about 35-40 snaps per game. He got 4 sacks last season as a rookie coming off an injury that caused him to miss most of the offseason. So figure a full offseason of working out and practicing with the team along with him hitting the field running from game 1. I think adding 2 more sacks to his total, giving him 6 sacks, shouldn't be out of the question.

That would basically keep up the sack rate he had his rookie season, which I think we all agree was disappointing. This is the assertion that I was wondering about:

Most 2nd round Pass Rushers average between 4-6 sacks in their second year.

It might be objectively true, but it's also objectively true that about half of second-round pass rushers never amount to anything. So, let's look back at some edges taken in the second round since 2020, determine if they're Actually Good, and how many sacks they had in their second season:

2020
Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 3.5.
Darrell Taylor (SEA) - Good? Yes. Sacks in 2nd season? 9.5.
A.J. Epenesa (BUF) - Good? Maybe. Four starts in four seasons, but 13 sacks combined in the past two years. Sacks in 2nd season? 1.5.
Josh Uche (NE) - Good? Probably. Three starts in four seasons, but 11.5 sacks in 2022 and 18.5 sacks in his career. Sacks in 2nd season? 3.0.

2019
Ben Banogu (IND) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.

2018
Harold Landry (TEN) - Good? Yes. Sacks in 2nd season? 9.
Uchenna Nwosu (SEA) - Good? Yes. Sacks in 2nd season? 2.
Tyquan Lewis (IND) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.

2017
Tyus Bowser (BAL) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.5.
Ryan Anderson (WAS) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.
Tanoh Kpassagnon (KC) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.

2016
Emmanuel Ogbah (CLE) - Good? Yes. Sacks in 2nd season? 4.
Kevin Dodd (TEN) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.
Noah Spence (TB) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 1.
Kamalei Correa (BAL) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 0.
Jihad Ward (OAK) - Good? No. Sacks in 2nd season? 1.

WOOF. Man, what this exercise taught me is that you don't find good edge players in the second round very often. Some of these guys I said were not good are still bouncing around the NFL, but it's extremely unlikely that Beej turns into anything more than a complementary pass rusher who can get 5 sacks a season on average.

Just brutal.
 

dreamcastrocks

Chopped Liver Moderator
Super Moderator
Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Posts
46,069
Reaction score
11,611
That would be bust level imo.
Maybe. People said the same thing about Reddick though, and he didn't break out until his what 5th year? People are way to quit to throw the bust label out there, even if statistics are on their side.
 

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
540,796
Posts
5,295,685
Members
6,288
Latest member
Crazy_Player
Top