20-year-old draft age limit?

[Joe Mama]

This is from today's ESPN Insider. If it's true it would probably work well for the Phoenix Suns. They would have a better shot at a good prospect in the draft, and it would make it easier to sign veterans.

Joe Mama

Brace yourselves college and international basketball fans. Come May, the NBA will experience the largest exodus of underclassmen (both college and international) in the history of the draft.

Why? Rumors are running rampant among NBA GMs and player agents that NBA commish David Stern is working out a deal with Players Association president Billy Hunter that would create a 20-year-old age limit for the 2004 NBA draft.

Stern, who's been pushing for the rule for years, may have finally found a way to get the NBPA (which has always opposed such a rule) on board.

The rumored compromise would create cap relief for teams that want to sign older veterans but can't because of luxury-tax fears. Older players, who happen to dominate the leadership of the players' executive council, have been complaining for the past few years that aging veterans have been the most adversely affected by the new rules.

If the two sides work out an agreement soon (Sports Illustrated reported it could happened next month) expect NBA player agents to begin working overtime with teenagers in high school, college and overseas to get them into the draft this year.

"It will dramatically affect how we handle some of younger clients overseas and some of the kids we're recruiting in high school and college," one prominent NBA player agent said. "If a kid is 17 or 18 right now and NBA teams are interested, it's now or 2005 or 2006. I think some of these kids don't want to wait that long."

It's already likely that LeBron James (age 18), Darko Milicic (17), Carmelo Anthony (19) and Chris Bosh (19) will declare for this year's draft.


Top high school prospects like Luol Deng may consider skipping college if the NBA passes an age limit for 2004
But several other players, including top high school prospects like Kederick Perkins, Luol Deng, Charlie Villanueva, James Lang and Kris Humphries, who were on the fence before, may now be pushed into the draft if the rumors persist.

None of them, according to several respected NBA scouts, are ready for the NBA. However, the lure of guaranteed money now, as opposed to two years from now, may be too much to pass up. Of course, if they declare, teams will draft them, ready or not.

"The draft is still about upside," one GM told Insider. "At the end of the day you take the guy who will eventually be the best player, not the kid who's the best player right now."

Expect an even bigger flood of international players to consider bolting. The advantage they have is that NBA teams can keep them overseas for a few more seasons and develop them. Over the past week young prospects such as Yugoslavia's Kosta Perovic (18 years old), Senegal's Malick Badiane (18), Brazil's Tiago Splitter (17) and Poland's Maciej Lampe (17) have all been rumored to be considering throwing their names in the draft because of the rule change.

That puts a heavy burden on international scouts.

The problem, as even the most enthusiastic international scouts will admit, is that international scouting is following the same trend as American scouting. "The kids we are looking at are getting younger and younger," one assistant GM told Insider. "Even three years ago, you pretty much waited until an European kid established himself over there before you seriously looked at him. There were exceptions, like Andrei Kirilenko, but for the most part teams were only comfortable drafting guys who had already become stars on the international scene. Nowadays, we're trying to evaluate kids like Nikoloz Tskitishvili. It's becoming a much riskier proposition."

That's what made Denver's selection of Tskitishvili, currently the second-youngest player in the NBA, such a risk. Everyone could see his skills in workouts, but no one got a good look at him in a game.

Without any real game film to go on, teams must rely on international junior competitions, grainy game film, practices (increasingly difficult to get into) and a lot of second-hand accounts.

This year, Milicic, who turns 18 just weeks before the draft, will be the youngest player ever drafted in the lottery. Fortunately, he starts for his team, giving teams plenty of game film to examine. But for a number of other blue chip international prospects, scouts must increasingly rely on their gut and a little bit of faith.

 

[elindholm]

The math in this article is off. Even under current rules, 17-year-olds can't be drafted, right? And current 19-year-olds will be eligible in 2004 even if the rule gets changed. So the only group of people affected will be current 18-year-olds. That may be enough for an effect somewhat along the lines of what the article discusses, but not nearly so dramatic a one as is implied.

 

[SirStefan32]

I like the rule. Let kids play 2 years of college before they enter the draft. No more high schoolers.

 

[Joe Mama]

Originally posted by elindholm
The math in this article is off. Even under current rules, 17-year-olds can't be drafted, right? And current 19-year-olds will be eligible in 2004 even if the rule gets changed. So the only group of people affected will be current 18-year-olds. That may be enough for an effect somewhat along the lines of what the article discusses, but not nearly so dramatic a one as is implied.

If those 17-year-olds are going to turn 18 before the draft they would be affected, but otherwise you are absolutely right. It however I believe most of the players they are talking about to fit into that 18-year-old age group. There are several young foreign players currently projected to be high lottery picks in the 2004 draft that would be forced to wait until the 2005 draft if the rule changes.

Joe Mama

 

[schutd]

I like the rule, too. I think it will cut down on the number of Leon Smiths we see in the draft, and will help improve the NBA game from a fundamentals and skills standpoint as well. Even 2 years under your belt with a D1 NCAA school can do wonders for a player's skills. Coaches in D1 still coach and teach, not so much so in the NBA. I cant see how this can be anything but a good thing. And if there are high school students who wouldnt be eligible in the NCAAs then they can hit the NBDL, get their coaching there and be ready for the draft when they hit 20. A great idea. One thats long overdue

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by schutd
And if there are high school students who wouldnt be eligible in the NCAAs then they can hit the NBDL, get their coaching there and be ready for the draft when they hit 20. A great idea. One thats long overdue

You definitely hit on something very interesting there. Could this potentially lead to an even bigger minor-league system?

 

[SirStefan32]

Absolutely!
Players will be able to contributeimmediately rather tha after two or three years. Another thing that I like is that the quality of college basketball is going to go up.
Wouldn't it be fun to watch Amare, LeBron, Chander, etc play in college?

I would like to hear more about the relief teams would get when signing veterans. This could be very important. Suns have a lot of young talent, but they need veteran help.

 

[elindholm]

Wouldn't it be fun to watch Amare, LeBron, Chander, etc play in college?

Wouldn't it be great if the Suns got the last of the straight-from-high-school stars? I know that James will be coming out this summer, but if he's a bust, then Stoudemire will have been the last of a dying breed.

 

[schutd]

Originally posted by Chaplin
You definitely hit on something very interesting there. Could this potentially lead to an even bigger minor-league system?

I hope so. It seems like such a no brainer, from a simpleton's perspective. I know jack about the business side of it, but Hockey and baseball have been doing it for years. The question is, if the NBA can't draft a kid til he's 20, these high school kids would be free agents in the NBDL, right? I think Id rather see an ability for a team to draft <i> rights</i> to a player directly our of highschool or age 18 or whatever, but then they not be able to play in the NBA til 20. That gives them 2 years of grooming with a decent salary, and the ability to know the system that they will eventually be a part of when they come up to the NBA. However, there would obviously have to be a round or wo added to the draft if thats the route decided on.

Wow. It really makes my head spin, the possibilties that exist with this. But God knows I dont know how to approach it. But something should be done. I bet this age restriction helps to some degree though. Seems like itd have to.

 

[Skkorpion]

I hate it.

Current college teams are filled with undereducated punks who shouldn't be in college at all. The entire NCAA system is wrought with fraud. This rule would make things worse by forcing even more unqualified kids into college.

You've all heard Shawn Marion speak. Think he ever wrote a term paper? What about Marbury? Think he went to class? Neither should ever have been in college, IMO.

In the United States, we have the freedom to choose employment. The establishment of an NBA age regulation would seem to me to unconstitutional and certain to be challenged in court.

 

[Chaplin]

Re: I hate it.

Originally posted by Skkorpion
Current college teams are filled with undereducated punks who shouldn't be in college at all. The entire NCAA system is wrought with fraud. This rule would make things worse by forcing even more unqualified kids into college.

You've all heard Shawn Marion speak. Think he ever wrote a term paper? What about Marbury? Think he went to class? Neither should ever have been in college, IMO.

In the United States, we have the freedom to choose employment. The establishment of an NBA age regulation would seem to me to unconstitutional and certain to be challenged in court.

I'm confused Skkorp. So then you are in support of throwing millions of dollars to 18-year-old kids to play basketball (and most not very well), instead of letting them either work on their games or at least get some sort of education?

Freedom to choose employment? I think that's reducing it to the simplest form--there's a lot more involved.

 

[jbeecham]

I was going to say that I think it will help HS kids because if they have to go to college before they can be drafted then they would try to get thier grades up so they can get into college and therefore make them smarter. Then I realized that there is too much corruption and the colleges would accept them even if their grades weren't good or that their HS teachers would pad their grades so that they can get into college. Why is it that people always look for the easy way out? For some reason kids in the US seem to think they'll get by on thier basketball skills and don't need to study. It doesn't seem like that's the case in a lot of the foriegn players coming into the league.

 

[Chaplin]

So what is honestly the best solution?

Force kids to go to college for two years in a corrupt system, or allow these kids to sign huge multi-million dollar contracts out of high school, when they have no conceivable idea about the value of money, and might not even be smart enough to go to school on their own?

Then again, compare the NBA and college GAMES, not systems. I am definitely more of an NBA guy, but I have to admit, college basketball just seems more exciting and frenetic than professional games--plus there's more teams. There's a reason why March Madness is such a huge thing.

Personally, I like the idea. If a kid can't go to college (there should be better rules on eligibility period), then a viable minor league alternative HAS to be addressed.

 

[elindholm]

I think Id rather see an ability for a team to draft rights to a player directly our of highschool or age 18 or whatever, but then they not be able to play in the NBA til 20.

But one of the problems with the current system is that teams have to draft on potential instead of on demonstrated ability. If 18-year-olds are still going to be drafted, that problem remains, no matter what the kids do until they "come of age."

I think the solution would be to have players get drafted once they hit the right age, no matter where they are -- be it college, or the developmental league, or Europe. After a certain age (23?), all players would be free agents, again regardless of where they are.

That addresses Skkorpion's (valid) complaint that college shouldn't just be a trade school for illiterate basketball players. Those who can qualify for college go; those who can't don't. Once they hit 20, they can apply for the NBA draft, where everyone has had a chance to see what they can do, one way or another.

Basically, the developmental league would become like a major college conference, except (a) the players wouldn't also be masquerading as college students, (b) they wouldn't have to hide the fact that they were getting paid, and (c) some of the players -- probably not too many -- would be older.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by elindholm

Basically, the developmental league would become like a major college conference, except (a) the players wouldn't also be masquerading as college students, (b) they wouldn't have to hide the fact that they were getting paid, and (c) some of the players -- probably not too many -- would be older.

Then again, I think the developmental league raises some more issues--mostly against the college system. Now, we have to agree that the college system is corrupt, but it still works for a lot of kids. I can't even speculate how many kids there are involved in D1 college basketball.

But if a developmental league comes up, and a lot more kids forgo college--because hey, it's the same thing except without classes--then what does that do? Wouldn't that promote even MORE corruption at the college level?

 

[elindholm]

But if a developmental league comes up, and a lot more kids forgo college--because hey, it's the same thing except without classes--then what does that do? Wouldn't that promote even MORE corruption at the college level?

It might. But it also might make those players who are in college take their academic responsibilities more seriously. I'm not saying it would, but it might.

Very few "student athletes" make it as pros. Right now, they emerge with college degrees that are hardly worth the paper they're printed on. It's bad enough to know that Shaquille O'Neal has a college degree, which is an insult to everyone affiliated with higher education. But it's even worse to know that there are a thousand others, every year, whose degree is no less bogus and yet who have no hope of a career in basketball.

And yet, there are some promising athletes who deserve a chance to see if they can make it. For some of them, their basketball talent is their best chance of succeeding in the world, and a system should exist that allows them to pursue that chance. If they fail, they can always try to get into college later, as actual students. Heck, they could even go out for the basketball team, as the extracurricular activity it is supposed to be.

 

[Chaplin]

Well, all I can say is that I'm happy I'm not on the committee to figure this out...

 

[schutd]

With a valid developmental league, I dont see how Skorps claim of freedom of employment is then an issue. Cant make it in college? FIne, go play in the NBDL where at the very least you still get the skills coaching and fundamentals teaching that you wouln't in the NBA. You still make a salary, a nice middle class alary at that, and you're more prone to appreciate money if you dnt get 6 million as an 18 year old. Sorry, but rights aside, at some point people need to make decisions based on what best for the people involved, and in the VAST majority of under 20 year old NBA players, it would have behooved them to groom their skills before hitting the NBA.

Elindholm, I appreciate your point about Shaq having a degree and that being an affront to te higher eduction system in general. Funny too, how Kobe Bryant only has a high school diploma yet is fluent in 4 languages and is one of the most well spoken players in the whole league. Just an interestin gthought Id say.

And Skorp, if the Players Union and the league agree to terms on an age restriction, would there still be a constituionality challenge?

 

[Joe Mama]

The problem with these young kids isn't that we should feel bad for them when they don't make it. It's not the amount of money they are paid and how they deal with it. The problem is that the draft is set up to help the bad teams get better. When the most talented players aren't fundamentally sound enough to make an immediate contribution the same team ends up in the lottery year after year.

Still,IMO there are far bigger problems with the NBA than an age limit. For every Leon Smith there are probably 5 guys who were 20+ years old who never made it in basketball. These huge guaranteed contracts are the biggest problem in the NBA. Everybody, including the NBA players, know the problem is not the luxury tax. These veterans who are complaining because teams won't spend the money on them have got to realize that it's because almost every team has at least one and more likely several players making far more than they are worth.

I honestly don't think it will work anyhow. It seems to me that placing a 20-year-old age limit for the NBA's age discrimination. Outside of a job or you are serving a controlled substance I don't think you can have a policy of telling an adult they can't work for you based on their age. Now whether anybody would challenge an age limit is another question.

Joe Mama

 

[SirStefan32]

I have to think this true Joe, I realize I am going to make a false analogy, but I don't have time to think about how to put it right now, so just try to follow and see what I am trying to say-

I am a second year student of psychology. I can not walk into a hospital and demend a job as a clinical psychologist.
The reason doesn't have to be the age, but rather qualifications and prerequisites. Maybe they should not be able to enter the draft without playing semi- profesonally for 2 years after graduating from high school, be it overseas, NBDL, or NCAA.
Thoughts?

Stefan

 

[slinslin]

I think it is a stupid idea. Why should anybody be forced to go to college to enter the draft?

Everyone should have the right to enter the draft whenever he wants to. If he is 16 and would get drafted in the first round so be it, why should a Lebron James be forced to go to college and probably ruin his draft stock?

He would probably get money under the table for comitting to a college program.

They should allow anyone to enter the draft and if you are under 21 and you are not drafted in the first round you shouldn't lose your ncaa eligibility and have the option to go back to college. Or they should make 2nd rounders generally guaranteed contracts and not allow teams to sign players who were not seniors when they entered the draft to partially or not guaranteed contracts.

And what about some players who might get drafted are under 20 but are ineligible for NCAA anyway? I don't think they could devellop in the NBDL. Do you really think that the NBDL teams really worry about helping a player improve so he can make the jump? They would be better off playing in europe if they could.

If anything they should make some kind of Junior-NBA. Every NBA team should sponsor a junior team. Have those teams play the same schedule 40 minute games before the actual games. European soccer and basketball teams for example all have Junior teams.

What about European players under 20? Nene Hilario would be forced to play 2 more years in a foreign pro league. Those foreign kids start playing professional basketball VERY VERY early anyway.

 

[Chaplin]

Originally posted by slinslin
I think it is a stupid idea. Why should anybody be forced to go to college to enter the draft?

You misunderstand, slin. This isn't a rule requiring a kid to go to college. It's an age limit issue. If a kid is 19, and according to the rules cannot enter the NBA, that doesn't mean he HAS to go to college.

Everyone should have the right to enter the draft whenever he wants to. If he is 16 and would get drafted in the first round so be it, why should a Lebron James be forced to go to college and probably ruin his draft stock?

What about the rule that NBA players must be high school graduates? A 16 year old cannot enter the NBA because he hasn't graduated high school. Are you saying you oppose that rule too? It sounds like it.

... if you are under 21 and you are not drafted in the first round you shouldn't lose your ncaa eligibility and have the option to go back to college.

I agree with this in the current system--however, I still don't think just anyone should be able to declare for the draft.

And what about some players who might get drafted are under 20 but are ineligible for NCAA anyway? I don't think they could devellop in the NBDL. Do you really think that the NBDL teams really worry about helping a player improve so he can make the jump? They would be better off playing in europe if they could.

Actually, Europe would be a great place to play for young kids. But, when we discuss a "minor league", we usually discuss it in regards to NBA teams having some sort of stake in the minor league club or clubs--like baseball and hockey.

If anything they should make some kind of Junior-NBA. Every NBA team should sponsor a junior team. Have those teams play the same schedule 40 minute games before the actual games. European soccer and basketball teams for example all have Junior teams.

Financially, I don't know if that's viable, schedule-wise. But Junior NBA, or NBDL, most of us here speak of a general minor league that could include both.

What about European players under 20? Nene Hilario would be forced to play 2 more years in a foreign pro league. Those foreign kids start playing professional basketball VERY VERY early anyway.

That's true--and when they finally come out at age 20 or 21, they'll only help their stock in the draft.

 

[elindholm]

I see no possible legal challenge to an age limit. There are age limits for who can work in bars, or who can drive cabs, or who can serve in Congress. Employers are perfectly within their rights to set minimum ages for their employees.

 

[zett]

well you can't set age restrictions on your new employees if you have younger ones there allready. This will be challenged in courts by some one with in the 1st 2years , if not sooner! In the U.S. 18 is the legal age of an adult, and to tell them you can not seek employment in a profession where you are qualified (skill wise) where no other law has been passed resticting you from working there, will most definitly be challenged!

 

[elindholm]

well you can't set age restrictions on your new employees if you have younger ones there allready.

Oh please. Then make the age limit 19 in the first year, and 20 after that. It's not rocket science.

In the U.S. 18 is the legal age of an adult, and to tell them you can not seek employment in a profession where you are qualified

I'm sorry, but have you ever served on a search committee? Employers can specify that you must live in a certain place, or have passed a certain test, or be able to lift a certain amount of weight. You might be right that someone will attempt to challenge the rule on legal grounds, but they will lose.

Also, I don't know where you get away with this sweeping statement about "the legal age of an adult." Drinking is one obvious counterexample.