Updated: May 17, 2005, 12:37 PM ET
Gilchrist, Robinson might not make first-round cut
Chad Ford
Suddenly, that David Stern age-limit thing isn't sounding like such a bad idea.
Saturday was the NBA deadline to declare for the draft. By Insider's unofficial count (the NBA will release the official list this week), 86 college underclassmen, high school seniors and under-22 international players declared for the draft. By the time the official list comes out, chances are the number will be even higher. Every year, there are at least one or two surprises on the list.
If 86 sounds like a lot, it's because it is. There are 60 spots available in the draft, and a big chunk of those will go to college seniors.
A number of players will pull out. Last year a record 94 underclassmen declared for the draft and a whopping 53 pulled out by the deadline in June (one week before the draft). That number probably will be smaller this year because just 40 underclassmen and high schoolers have preserved their college eligibility by not hiring agents. International players are free to withdraw even if they've hired an agent, increasing the total number of players who may withdraw to 62.
However, of that group of 62, only 19 are considered likely to stay in the draft. Do the math: Of the 86 early-entry players, about 43 are expected to withdraw from the draft, leaving an estimated 43 early-entry players in the draft. Someone isn't going to be happy.
Where do they all stand?
Today, Insider takes a look at each early entry and what his draft prospects are.
COLLEGE UNDERCLASSMEN (53 declared)
# = Declared for the draft, but hasn't signed with an agent Top 3
Marvin Williams, SF/PF, Fr., North Carolina [Draft range: 1-3]
Chris Paul, PG, So., Wake Forest [Draft range: 1-3]
Andrew Bogut, PF/C, So., Utah [Draft range: 1-3]
Lottery-Bound (4)
Deron Williams, PG, Jr., Illinois [Draft range: 4-10]
Raymond Felton, PG, Jr., North Carolina [Draft range: 5-12]
Chris Taft, PF, So., Pittsburgh [Draft range: 7-14]
Antoine Wright, SG, Jr., Texas A&M# [Draft range: 9-15]
Mid-to-Late First Round (8)
Sean May, PF/C, Jr., North Carolina [Draft range: 14-22]
Jarrett Jack, PG, Jr., Georgia Tech# [Draft range: 14-24]
Charlie Villanueva, SF/PF, So., UConn [Draft range: 15-25]
Rashad McCants, SG, Jr., North Carolina [Draft range: 17-23]
Randolph Morris, C, Fr., Kentucky# [Draft range: 18-27]
Kennedy Winston, SF, Jr., Alabama# [Draft range: 20-30]
Ike Diogu, PF, Jr., Arizona State# [Draft range: 21-35]
Francisco Garcia, SG/SF, Jr., Louisville [Draft range: 21-35]
First-Round Bubble Boys (7)
John Gilchrist, PG, Jr., Maryland [Draft range: 24-40]
Linas Kleiza, SF/PF, So., Missouri [Draft range: 26-40]
Nate Robinson, PG/SG, Jr., Washington [Draft range: 26-40]
Matt Walsh, SG/SF, Jr., Florida# [Draft range: 26-40]
Brandon Bass, PF, So., LSU [Draft range: 28-45]
Dee Brown, SG, Jr., Illinois# [Draft range: 29-45]
Deji Akindele, C, So., Chicago State# [Draft range: 29-45]
Second Round to Undrafted (31)
Alex Acker, SG, Jr., Pepperdine#
Kelenna Azubuike, SG, Jr., Kentucky
Sean Banks, SF, So., Memphis
Jose Juan Barea, PG, So., Northeastern#
Brandon Bowman, F, Jr., Georgetown#
Toney Douglas, G, Fr., Auburn#
Olu Famutimi, G/F, So., Arkansas#
Torin Francis, PF, Jr., Notre Dame#
Mike Hall, SF, Jr., George Washington#
Chris Hernandez, PG, Jr., Stanford#
Bryan Hopkins, PG, Jr., SMU#
Dwayne Jones, C, Jr., St. Joseph's#
Carl Krauser, PG, Jr., Pittsburgh#
Dennis Latimore, PF, Jr., Notre Dame
Darshan Luckey, SG, Jr., St. Francis#
Nana (Pops) Mensah-Bonsu, PF, Jr., George Washington
J.R. Morris, SG, Jr., Seton Hall
T.J. Parker, PG, Jr., Northwestern
Tim Parham, PF, Jr., Maryland-Eastern Shore#
Pierre Pierce, G, Jr., Iowa
Kevin Pittsnogle, PF, Jr., West Virginia#
Shavlik Randolph, F, Jr., Duke#
Anthony Roberson, PG, Jr., Florida#
Chris Rodgers, SG, Jr., Arizona#
Marcus Slaughter, SF, So., San Diego State#
Steven Smith, SF, Jr., LaSalle#
Tiras Wade, SG, Jr., Louisiana-Layfayette#
Von Wafer, G, So., Florida State#
James White, G/F, Cincinnati#
Eric Williams, PF, Jr., Wake Forest#
Bracey Wright, SG, Jr., Indiana
HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS (11 declared)
Lottery-Bound (1)
Gerald Green, SG, HS Sr., TX# [Draft range: 4-10]
Mid-to-Late First Round (4)
Martell Webster, SG, HS Sr., WA# [Draft range: 11-20]
Andrew Bynum, C, HS Sr., NJ# [Draft range: 10-20]
Andray Blatche, PF, HS Sr., NY [Draft range: 15-21]
Monta Ellis, PG/SG, HS Sr., MS [Draft range: 20-35]
First-Round Bubble Boys (1)
Louis Williams, SG, HS Senior, GA# [Draft range: 26-40]
Second Round to Undrafted (5)
Amir Johnson, PF, HS Sr., CA#
CJ Miles, SG, HS Sr., TX#
Brandon Rush, SG, HS Sr., NC#
Keith Brumbaugh, F, HS Sr., FL#
Martellus Bennett, F, HS Sr., Texas#
INTERNATIONAL UNDER-22 (22 declared)
Lottery-Bound (1)
Martynas Andriuskevicius, PF/C, 19 yrs, Lithuania [Draft range: 5-14]
Mid-to-Late First Round (8)
Nemanja Aleksandrov, SF/PF, 18 yrs, Serbia [Draft range: 10-18]
Johan Petro, C, 19 yrs, France [Draft range: 9-20]
Tiago Splitter, PF, 20 yrs, Brazil [Draft range: 9-20]
Marko Tomas, SG, 19 yrs, Croatia [Draft range: 12-23]
Yaroslav Korolev, SF, 18 yrs, Russia [Draft range: 16-22]
Rudy Fernandez, SG, 19 yrs, Spain [Draft range: 17-25]
Ersan Ilyasova, SF, 18 yrs, Turkey [Draft range: 18-27]
Peja Samardziski, C, 19 yrs, Macedonia [Draft range: 22-30]
First-Round Bubble Boys (3)
Mile Ilic, C, 21 yrs, Serbia [Draft range: 27-40]
Roko Ukic, PG, 21 yrs, Croatia [Draft range: 27-40]
Kosta Perovic, C, 20 yrs, Serbia [Draft range: 27-40]
Second Round to Undrafted (10)
Marcin Gortat, C, 21 yrs., Germany
Luka Bogdanovic, SF, 20 yrs, Serbia
Ivan Chiriaev, SF, 21 yrs., Russia
Paulius Jankunas, PF, 21 yrs., Lithuania
Marko Lekic, F, 20 yrs., Serbia
Erazem Lorberk, PF/C, 21 yrs, Slovenia
Miguel Marriaga, G/F, 21 yrs., Venezuela
Drago Pasalic, PF, 21 yrs, Croatia
Dusan Sakota, SF, 19 yrs, Greece
Marcus Vinicius, SF, 21 yrs, Brazil
THE NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP
If you've started doing the math, it's pretty clear that there are too many early-entry players.
Now we have to factor in the college seniors. Currently, it looks like this:
Lottery-Bound (1)
Danny Granger, SF, Sr., New Mexico [Draft range: 7-14]
Mid-to-Late First Round (4)
Hakim Warrick, PF, Sr., Syracuse [Draft range: 7-14]
Joey Graham, SF, Sr., Oklahoma State [Draft range: 7-14]
Wayne Simien, PF, Sr., Kansas [Draft range: 18-25]
Channing Frye, C, Sr., Arizona [Draft range: 19-30]
First-Round Bubble Boys (3)
Ronny Turiaf, PF, Sr., Gonzaga [Draft range: 25-40]
Julius Hodge, SG, Sr., North Carolina State [Draft range: 28-40]
David Lee, PF, Sr., Florida [Draft range: 29-40]
And we also need to take into account one 22-year-old draft-eligible international player:
Lottery-Bound (1)
Fran Vasquez, PF, 22 yrs, Spain [Draft range: 6-14]
Add all of those up, and here's what we have:
Lottery-Bound (11): College senior (1), college underclassmen (7), high school seniors (1), international-22 (1) and international underclassmen (1).
Mid-to-Late First Round (24): College seniors (4), college underclassmen (8), high school seniors (4) and international underclassmen (8)
Bubble First-Rounders (14): College seniors (3), college underclassmen (7), high school seniors (1) and international underclassmen (3)
That's 49 players for 30 first-round spots.
What does it mean?
Between buyout issues, the inability for some of those top prospects to actually work out for teams and the crowded nature of the draft, don't be surprised if a large number of the international players pull out.
I think Petro and Fernandez are the only two who are locks to stay in. Aleksandrov will stay in as long as he's a top-15 pick (which is pretty likely). Tomas also needs to go in the late lottery or mid-first round to afford his buyout in Croatia. Guys such as Andriuskevicius, Splitter, Korolev, Ilyasova, Samardziski, Ilic and Perovic are fishing for promises. Andriuskevicius and Splitter want something in the lottery. The others are looking for first-round guarantees. If they don't get them, they're probably returning to school.
The same should hold true with the high school kids. All five of the sub-first-rounders – plus Bynum (who seems to just be flirting with the draft right now) – probably will pull out.
As for the college guys, most of the top players are in for sure. Jack, Morris and Brown are the most likely to return to school if they don't get the assurances they want.
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Gilchrist, Robinson might not make first-round cut
Chad Ford
Suddenly, that David Stern age-limit thing isn't sounding like such a bad idea.
Saturday was the NBA deadline to declare for the draft. By Insider's unofficial count (the NBA will release the official list this week), 86 college underclassmen, high school seniors and under-22 international players declared for the draft. By the time the official list comes out, chances are the number will be even higher. Every year, there are at least one or two surprises on the list.
If 86 sounds like a lot, it's because it is. There are 60 spots available in the draft, and a big chunk of those will go to college seniors.
A number of players will pull out. Last year a record 94 underclassmen declared for the draft and a whopping 53 pulled out by the deadline in June (one week before the draft). That number probably will be smaller this year because just 40 underclassmen and high schoolers have preserved their college eligibility by not hiring agents. International players are free to withdraw even if they've hired an agent, increasing the total number of players who may withdraw to 62.
However, of that group of 62, only 19 are considered likely to stay in the draft. Do the math: Of the 86 early-entry players, about 43 are expected to withdraw from the draft, leaving an estimated 43 early-entry players in the draft. Someone isn't going to be happy.
Where do they all stand?
Today, Insider takes a look at each early entry and what his draft prospects are.
COLLEGE UNDERCLASSMEN (53 declared)
# = Declared for the draft, but hasn't signed with an agent Top 3
Marvin Williams, SF/PF, Fr., North Carolina [Draft range: 1-3]
Chris Paul, PG, So., Wake Forest [Draft range: 1-3]
Andrew Bogut, PF/C, So., Utah [Draft range: 1-3]
Lottery-Bound (4)
Deron Williams, PG, Jr., Illinois [Draft range: 4-10]
Raymond Felton, PG, Jr., North Carolina [Draft range: 5-12]
Chris Taft, PF, So., Pittsburgh [Draft range: 7-14]
Antoine Wright, SG, Jr., Texas A&M# [Draft range: 9-15]
Mid-to-Late First Round (8)
Sean May, PF/C, Jr., North Carolina [Draft range: 14-22]
Jarrett Jack, PG, Jr., Georgia Tech# [Draft range: 14-24]
Charlie Villanueva, SF/PF, So., UConn [Draft range: 15-25]
Rashad McCants, SG, Jr., North Carolina [Draft range: 17-23]
Randolph Morris, C, Fr., Kentucky# [Draft range: 18-27]
Kennedy Winston, SF, Jr., Alabama# [Draft range: 20-30]
Ike Diogu, PF, Jr., Arizona State# [Draft range: 21-35]
Francisco Garcia, SG/SF, Jr., Louisville [Draft range: 21-35]
First-Round Bubble Boys (7)
John Gilchrist, PG, Jr., Maryland [Draft range: 24-40]
Linas Kleiza, SF/PF, So., Missouri [Draft range: 26-40]
Nate Robinson, PG/SG, Jr., Washington [Draft range: 26-40]
Matt Walsh, SG/SF, Jr., Florida# [Draft range: 26-40]
Brandon Bass, PF, So., LSU [Draft range: 28-45]
Dee Brown, SG, Jr., Illinois# [Draft range: 29-45]
Deji Akindele, C, So., Chicago State# [Draft range: 29-45]
Second Round to Undrafted (31)
Alex Acker, SG, Jr., Pepperdine#
Kelenna Azubuike, SG, Jr., Kentucky
Sean Banks, SF, So., Memphis
Jose Juan Barea, PG, So., Northeastern#
Brandon Bowman, F, Jr., Georgetown#
Toney Douglas, G, Fr., Auburn#
Olu Famutimi, G/F, So., Arkansas#
Torin Francis, PF, Jr., Notre Dame#
Mike Hall, SF, Jr., George Washington#
Chris Hernandez, PG, Jr., Stanford#
Bryan Hopkins, PG, Jr., SMU#
Dwayne Jones, C, Jr., St. Joseph's#
Carl Krauser, PG, Jr., Pittsburgh#
Dennis Latimore, PF, Jr., Notre Dame
Darshan Luckey, SG, Jr., St. Francis#
Nana (Pops) Mensah-Bonsu, PF, Jr., George Washington
J.R. Morris, SG, Jr., Seton Hall
T.J. Parker, PG, Jr., Northwestern
Tim Parham, PF, Jr., Maryland-Eastern Shore#
Pierre Pierce, G, Jr., Iowa
Kevin Pittsnogle, PF, Jr., West Virginia#
Shavlik Randolph, F, Jr., Duke#
Anthony Roberson, PG, Jr., Florida#
Chris Rodgers, SG, Jr., Arizona#
Marcus Slaughter, SF, So., San Diego State#
Steven Smith, SF, Jr., LaSalle#
Tiras Wade, SG, Jr., Louisiana-Layfayette#
Von Wafer, G, So., Florida State#
James White, G/F, Cincinnati#
Eric Williams, PF, Jr., Wake Forest#
Bracey Wright, SG, Jr., Indiana
HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS (11 declared)
Lottery-Bound (1)
Gerald Green, SG, HS Sr., TX# [Draft range: 4-10]
Mid-to-Late First Round (4)
Martell Webster, SG, HS Sr., WA# [Draft range: 11-20]
Andrew Bynum, C, HS Sr., NJ# [Draft range: 10-20]
Andray Blatche, PF, HS Sr., NY [Draft range: 15-21]
Monta Ellis, PG/SG, HS Sr., MS [Draft range: 20-35]
First-Round Bubble Boys (1)
Louis Williams, SG, HS Senior, GA# [Draft range: 26-40]
Second Round to Undrafted (5)
Amir Johnson, PF, HS Sr., CA#
CJ Miles, SG, HS Sr., TX#
Brandon Rush, SG, HS Sr., NC#
Keith Brumbaugh, F, HS Sr., FL#
Martellus Bennett, F, HS Sr., Texas#
INTERNATIONAL UNDER-22 (22 declared)
Lottery-Bound (1)
Martynas Andriuskevicius, PF/C, 19 yrs, Lithuania [Draft range: 5-14]
Mid-to-Late First Round (8)
Nemanja Aleksandrov, SF/PF, 18 yrs, Serbia [Draft range: 10-18]
Johan Petro, C, 19 yrs, France [Draft range: 9-20]
Tiago Splitter, PF, 20 yrs, Brazil [Draft range: 9-20]
Marko Tomas, SG, 19 yrs, Croatia [Draft range: 12-23]
Yaroslav Korolev, SF, 18 yrs, Russia [Draft range: 16-22]
Rudy Fernandez, SG, 19 yrs, Spain [Draft range: 17-25]
Ersan Ilyasova, SF, 18 yrs, Turkey [Draft range: 18-27]
Peja Samardziski, C, 19 yrs, Macedonia [Draft range: 22-30]
First-Round Bubble Boys (3)
Mile Ilic, C, 21 yrs, Serbia [Draft range: 27-40]
Roko Ukic, PG, 21 yrs, Croatia [Draft range: 27-40]
Kosta Perovic, C, 20 yrs, Serbia [Draft range: 27-40]
Second Round to Undrafted (10)
Marcin Gortat, C, 21 yrs., Germany
Luka Bogdanovic, SF, 20 yrs, Serbia
Ivan Chiriaev, SF, 21 yrs., Russia
Paulius Jankunas, PF, 21 yrs., Lithuania
Marko Lekic, F, 20 yrs., Serbia
Erazem Lorberk, PF/C, 21 yrs, Slovenia
Miguel Marriaga, G/F, 21 yrs., Venezuela
Drago Pasalic, PF, 21 yrs, Croatia
Dusan Sakota, SF, 19 yrs, Greece
Marcus Vinicius, SF, 21 yrs, Brazil
THE NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP
If you've started doing the math, it's pretty clear that there are too many early-entry players.
Now we have to factor in the college seniors. Currently, it looks like this:
Lottery-Bound (1)
Danny Granger, SF, Sr., New Mexico [Draft range: 7-14]
Mid-to-Late First Round (4)
Hakim Warrick, PF, Sr., Syracuse [Draft range: 7-14]
Joey Graham, SF, Sr., Oklahoma State [Draft range: 7-14]
Wayne Simien, PF, Sr., Kansas [Draft range: 18-25]
Channing Frye, C, Sr., Arizona [Draft range: 19-30]
First-Round Bubble Boys (3)
Ronny Turiaf, PF, Sr., Gonzaga [Draft range: 25-40]
Julius Hodge, SG, Sr., North Carolina State [Draft range: 28-40]
David Lee, PF, Sr., Florida [Draft range: 29-40]
And we also need to take into account one 22-year-old draft-eligible international player:
Lottery-Bound (1)
Fran Vasquez, PF, 22 yrs, Spain [Draft range: 6-14]
Add all of those up, and here's what we have:
Lottery-Bound (11): College senior (1), college underclassmen (7), high school seniors (1), international-22 (1) and international underclassmen (1).
Mid-to-Late First Round (24): College seniors (4), college underclassmen (8), high school seniors (4) and international underclassmen (8)
Bubble First-Rounders (14): College seniors (3), college underclassmen (7), high school seniors (1) and international underclassmen (3)
That's 49 players for 30 first-round spots.
What does it mean?
Between buyout issues, the inability for some of those top prospects to actually work out for teams and the crowded nature of the draft, don't be surprised if a large number of the international players pull out.
I think Petro and Fernandez are the only two who are locks to stay in. Aleksandrov will stay in as long as he's a top-15 pick (which is pretty likely). Tomas also needs to go in the late lottery or mid-first round to afford his buyout in Croatia. Guys such as Andriuskevicius, Splitter, Korolev, Ilyasova, Samardziski, Ilic and Perovic are fishing for promises. Andriuskevicius and Splitter want something in the lottery. The others are looking for first-round guarantees. If they don't get them, they're probably returning to school.
The same should hold true with the high school kids. All five of the sub-first-rounders – plus Bynum (who seems to just be flirting with the draft right now) – probably will pull out.
As for the college guys, most of the top players are in for sure. Jack, Morris and Brown are the most likely to return to school if they don't get the assurances they want.
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