The Market 2022-2023-2024

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,214
Reaction score
32,820
.25% interest raise but Fed seems to be hinting there may be a pause now. So far the markets are slightly up since the Fed announcement.
 

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
.25% interest raise but Fed seems to be hinting there may be a pause now. So far the markets are slightly up since the Fed announcement.
Nope. Higher for longer. No indication of rate cuts. Market didn't like that news.
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,831
Reaction score
8,074
Location
L.A. area

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
If you're a gambler, now is the time to short everything.
Unfortunately, the real gamble has been to the long side for some time now. Severe credit contraction/ inverted yield curve were easy tells. Now, rate cuts will happen when something inevitably breaks (regional banks/commercial real estate, etc) and that's when market drawdowns occur... Usually hard and fast.
 

Yuma

Suns are my Kryptonite!
Joined
Jan 3, 2003
Posts
20,163
Reaction score
9,605
Location
Laveen, AZ
I saw a CNBC report yesterday, and they said the reason we have not gone into recession yet is the strength of spending by the American consumer. Other countries have cut spending by their consumers, but we just keep buying stuff. Although, our spending has changed. From buying normal groceries to shopping more in the bulk bins for example.

I know my last job I was on the road all day and I kept seeing new cars that were just bought, and a LOT of Carvana used cars with new license tags on the road. People still buying cars from what I saw.
 

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,214
Reaction score
32,820
If you're a gambler, now is the time to short everything.

I actually put 10K in my etrade account to do that. But for some reason it took a day longer to get in than I expected. My plan was to buy PACW yesterday because it was beaten down and seemed like it was going to get a bounce. Then sell that and get into one of the ETF's that short the Dow, maybe even SDOW which is 3X short. So I got up yesterday to place my order for PACW but only a portion of my 10K was available to trade, the rest not until today. So I decided to wait and of course it went up 21% today so I didn't get in.

Not sure I'm brave enough the banks are doing these huge swings right now if you guess right you can make a killing. The last time I looked at PACW I hadn't started putting money into my trading account and it went up 82% in one day!

The good news today is Biden said even the GOP stated they would NOT default. I still think they're going to call his bluff as long as they can for leverage but it sounds like there are still enough adults in the party that they won't make that mistake
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,839
Reaction score
6,063
Anyone actually prepared/ hedged for a full blown market meltdown??
I'll just DCA my way through it with my retirement accounts and look for good values with my individual stocks.

I'm going to see a few more market crashes before I retire, and I imagine I'll see a few more in retirement as well. I have no confidence that I nor anybody else could time them effectively.

The market has had a positive annual return 75-80% of the time over the last 20-30 years. Sitting on the sidelines has its own risks. I saw many an investor sit out for years after the 08 financial crisis and miss out on massive gains.
 

Yuma

Suns are my Kryptonite!
Joined
Jan 3, 2003
Posts
20,163
Reaction score
9,605
Location
Laveen, AZ
I'll just DCA my way through it with my retirement accounts and look for good values with my individual stocks.

I'm going to see a few more market crashes before I retire, and I imagine I'll see a few more in retirement as well. I have no confidence that I nor anybody else could time them effectively.

The market has had a positive annual return 75-80% of the time over the last 20-30 years. Sitting on the sidelines has its own risks. I saw many an investor sit out for years after the 08 financial crisis and miss out on massive gains.
Worse yet, I saw people sell low because they were afraid they would lose it all. You don't lose anything if you don't sell! I was so sad to see that!
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,831
Reaction score
8,074
Location
L.A. area
I'll just DCA my way through it with my retirement accounts and look for good values with my individual stocks.

I'm going to see a few more market crashes before I retire, and I imagine I'll see a few more in retirement as well. I have no confidence that I nor anybody else could time them effectively.

The market has had a positive annual return 75-80% of the time over the last 20-30 years. Sitting on the sidelines has its own risks. I saw many an investor sit out for years after the 08 financial crisis and miss out on massive gains.

I agree with all of this, but I'm considering doing a massive sell if the debt ceiling isn't resolved in another few days. I'll miss some uptick if they come to a deal, but I'd be protecting myself against a crippling swoon. Monday is a holiday, so Friday is really the last day to get out.
 
OP
OP
Folster

Folster

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jun 23, 2005
Posts
15,839
Reaction score
6,063
I agree with all of this, but I'm considering doing a massive sell if the debt ceiling isn't resolved in another few days. I'll miss some uptick if they come to a deal, but I'd be protecting myself against a crippling swoon. Monday is a holiday, so Friday is really the last day to get out.
Nothing gets the attention and spurs action of our elected officials like a market sell-off.
 
Last edited:

dscher

ASFN Icon
Joined
Sep 3, 2008
Posts
12,864
Reaction score
7,772
Location
Mesa, AZ
I'll just DCA my way through it with my retirement accounts and look for good values with my individual stocks.

I'm going to see a few more market crashes before I retire, and I imagine I'll see a few more in retirement as well. I have no confidence that I nor anybody else could time them effectively.

The market has had a positive annual return 75-80% of the time over the last 20-30 years. Sitting on the sidelines has its own risks. I saw many an investor sit out for years after the 08 financial crisis and miss out on massive gains.
You have also been part of the most artificially inflated market in history. Myself included. This is something to not dismiss. If we turn into Japan, then it will be wise to maybe turn our attention elsewhere... Deflation rarely works out well for asset investors. Traders don't care so much.
 

elindholm

edited for content
Joined
Sep 14, 2002
Posts
26,831
Reaction score
8,074
Location
L.A. area
Nothing get the attention and spurs action of our elected officials like a market sell-off.

You're probably right. But the Trump loyalists literally tried to overthrow our national government not that long ago, so I'm sure torpedoing the economy wouldn't be off the table for them, if they thought it would lead to their desired outcome.
 

jf-08

Guy Smiley
Administrator
Super Moderator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 15, 2002
Posts
26,051
Reaction score
20,225
Location
Eye in the Sky
You're probably right. But the Trump loyalists literally tried to overthrow our national government not that long ago, so I'm sure torpedoing the economy wouldn't be off the table for them, if they thought it would lead to their desired outcome.
No politics in this forum.
 

GoldGloveschmidt

ASFN Lifer
Joined
Aug 29, 2013
Posts
4,055
Reaction score
6,422
Now that the debt ceiling agreement has been reached, inflation is at 4.9 and headed to 3 by July, interest rates have peaked and the Fed is about to pause rate hikes, the S&P500 remains in a 7 month uptrend, corporate earnings are beating estimates, unemployment remains historically low, spending and travel are at all time highs, Oil has settled at a reasonable $70 level, and no recession has come....... I wonder what the doomsayers will come up with next to try to make everybody believe this is 2008 again and the S&P500 will be cut in half.

Investors emotions and imagination are their own worst enemy. Buy and hold good companies, ignore the noise.
 

Yuma

Suns are my Kryptonite!
Joined
Jan 3, 2003
Posts
20,163
Reaction score
9,605
Location
Laveen, AZ
Now that the debt ceiling agreement has been reached, inflation is at 4.9 and headed to 3 by July, interest rates have peaked and the Fed is about to pause rate hikes, the S&P500 remains in a 7 month uptrend, corporate earnings are beating estimates, unemployment remains historically low, spending and travel are at all time highs, Oil has settled at a reasonable $70 level, and no recession has come....... I wonder what the doomsayers will come up with next to try to make everybody believe this is 2008 again and the S&P500 will be cut in half.

Investors emotions and imagination are their own worst enemy. Buy and hold good companies, ignore the noise.
Elections are coming, and doomsayers will say, If part X gets in, it's the end of America as we know it!
 

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
534,765
Posts
5,246,051
Members
6,273
Latest member
sarahmoose
Top