Would you pay Kyler 45 mil if this is (basically) his peak?

[Chopper0080]

A lot of conversation surrounding extending Kyler is assuming he continues to get better. A realistic counter to this is if you can't predict his improvement, you are extending him based upon who he is. Is who he is now, good enough for that contract?

Let's say 4000 yards passing. 26 TDs. 13 INTs. 69% completion %. 450 yards rushing. 5 TDs rushing.

His personality and leadership style are what they currently are.

Are you paying that contract?

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

There is no way to consider what you would extend him for without taking into account likely improvement. Sure if it was a guarantee that he would never get better I wouldn't do it, but I assume that he will get better and therefore I would sign him to that.

 

[Chopper0080]

There is no way to consider what you would extend him for without taking into account likely improvement. Sure if it was a guarantee that he would never get better I wouldn't do it, but I assume that he will get better and therefore I would sign him to that.

I think this is false. I can't find an example of a current QB who has consistently produced significantly better stats than he did prior to his large extension.

Rodgers...no.
Mahomes...no.
Allen...no.
Carr...no.
Watson...no.
Wilson...no.
Ryan...no.
Wentz...no.
Dak...no.
Stafford...no.

Matt Ryan is probably the only one who is close. 4700 and 32 was his best season prior to his extension and he has a 4900 and 38 season as well as a 4900 and 35 season but that is a marginal difference IMO.

 

[gmabel830]

I voted Yes. He's a good starting QB now, and this is the market rate for a good QB. I can understand a "draft the next Kyler" mentality, but the one before Kyler was Rosen.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

This shouldn't even be a conversation. You have to pay him at this point. If you weren't going to pay him, he should have already been traded.

 

[football karma]

i think the alternative needs to be presented:

he plays this year for $5mm or so. its ugly, with a "hold-in" during camp etc, but he will be there week one.

if he doesnt improve, then i guess it is a win contract wise but I'm also not sure if his price goes down. Probably get into "demand a trade" territory next offseason.

Yes, there is the option year + 1 year of franchise, but do you really want your QB not wanting to play for you?

if he does improve, then the contract demands go way up.

net/net: if you give him the extension and he stays the same, then the Cards are in the Kirk Cousins/ Jared Goff / Carson Wentz scenario. Expensive QB, good enough to win games, not good enough to go far. Somehow the Rams and Eagles managed to spin those situations into wins

 

[MrYeahBut]

I've gotten over the fact that I don't particularly like his leadership style, or at least my perception of it. Pay the man. To me, the alternative is disastrous.

 

[Chopper0080]

This shouldn't even be a conversation. You have to pay him at this point. If you weren't going to pay him, he should have already been traded.

I struggle with this idea. Why do you HAVE to pay him?

He is under contract for next year and you have the franchise tag for two years after. It is not unreasonable to say that you need to see more after the end of last season. The coaching and front office will be the same.

Worst case scenario in not giving him a contract extension is that he becomes one of the top 5 QBs in the NFL and you make him the highest paid QB in the NFL. That is the worst case scenario.

That is why I am curious if where he is at currently is worth the contract he is asking for. Because if you pay Kyler 45 mil per year and he never becomes better than this, that is what you are stuck with. Is it worth it?

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Worst case scenario in not giving him a contract extension is that he becomes one of the top 5 QBs in the NFL and you make him the highest paid QB in the NFL. That is the worst case scenario.

No, the worst case scenario is if he goes superstar, and because we jacked him around so much, he decides to take his talent elsewhere.

Messing around with young potential superstar talent carries a lot of risk!

 

[gmabel830]

I struggle with this idea. Why do you HAVE to pay him?

He is under contract for next year and you have the franchise tag for two years after. It is not unreasonable to say that you need to see more after the end of last season. The coaching and front office will be the same.

Worst case scenario in not giving him a contract extension is that he becomes one of the top 5 QBs in the NFL and you make him the highest paid QB in the NFL. That is the worst case scenario.

That is why I am curious if where he is at currently is worth the contract he is asking for. Because if you pay Kyler 45 mil per year and he never becomes better than this, that is what you are stuck with. Is it worth it?

What is the 2nd year franchise tag for QBs? It will probably go up significantly by the time we exercise it too. I get that the cap will also expand significantly, but this is not a very sound economic strategy.

 

[Chopper0080]

And honestly, the "he will continue to develop" and the "the organization has to extend him" are tired arguments that are speculative at best. That is why I am curious to see how many would pay him if this is as good as it gets.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I struggle with this idea. Why do you HAVE to pay him?

He is under contract for next year and you have the franchise tag for two years after. It is not unreasonable to say that you need to see more after the end of last season. The coaching and front office will be the same.

Worst case scenario in not giving him a contract extension is that he becomes one of the top 5 QBs in the NFL and you make him the highest paid QB in the NFL. That is the worst case scenario.

That is why I am curious if where he is at currently is worth the contract he is asking for. Because if you pay Kyler 45 mil per year and he never becomes better than this, that is what you are stuck with.

Not signing him is a clear failure by Keim to not develop 2 top 10 picks, including the #1 overall. It just isn't going to happen.

Worst case scenario would be to have Kyler leave this team with no compensation.

If Kyler never becomes better, he is still a top 10 QB. You pay top 10 QBs.

 

[Chopper0080]

No, the worst case scenario is if he goes superstar, and because we jacked him around so much, he decides to take his talent elsewhere.

Messing around with young potential superstar talent carries a lot of risk!

You are guaranteed four years of elite QB play in this scenario and Kirk Cousins is the only example of a guy who has done this and left that franchise.

And honestly, give me an example of a player in professional sports who has turned down the highest salary in the league to make a point?

 

[DVontel]

Yes.

He needs to be better when it comes to leadership, but I don’t mind his personality.

 

[Chopper0080]

Aaron Rodgers HATES the Packers front office and he stayed when they paid him 50 mil or whatever his new deal is.

 

[Chopper0080]

Yes.

He needs to be better when it comes to leadership, but I don’t mind his personality.

Thank you for answering this directly. All I am looking for.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I think this is false. I can't find an example of a current QB who has consistently produced significantly better stats than he did prior to his large extension.

Rodgers...no.
Mahomes...no.
Allen...no.
Carr...no.
Watson...no.
Wilson...no.
Ryan...no.
Wentz...no.
Dak...no.
Stafford...no.

Matt Ryan is probably the only one who is close. 4700 and 32 was his best season prior to his extension and he has a 4900 and 38 season as well as a 4900 and 35 season but that is a marginal difference IMO.

He is a young QB, with not a lot of college experience either and has improved every year of his career. I suspect we will continue to see him improve for at least the next couple seasons.

 

[Chopper0080]

Not signing him is a clear failure by Keim to not develop 2 top 10 picks, including the #1 overall. It just isn't going to happen.

Worst case scenario would be to have Kyler leave this team with no compensation.

If Kyler never becomes better, he is still a top 10 QB. You pay top 10 QBs.

Again, projecting something that has never happened to happen is a garbage argument. No NFL player has veer turned down the opportunity to be the highest paid NFL QB to instead play on the franchise tag. Ever.

Your last point is exactly what I was interested in. Thank you.

 

[Chopper0080]

He is a young QB, with not a lot of college experience either and has improved every year of his career. I suspect we will continue to see him improve for at least the next couple seasons.

Again, your argument being based upon something there is not an actual example of happening is not a good argument. It would be like me arguing not to sign him because he may never play a full season again.

So I ask again, if this is as good as he gets, would you pay him what he wants?

 

[Chopper0080]

I've gotten over the fact that I don't particularly like his leadership style, or at least my perception of it. Pay the man. To me, the alternative is disastrous.

Thank you.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

You are guaranteed four years of elite QB play in this scenario and Kirk Cousins is the only example of a guy who has done this and left that franchise.

And honestly, give me an example of a player in professional sports who has turned down the highest salary in the league to make a point?

Kyler's a different dude, and respect matters to the elite. Kyler has already made noise that he won't play until he gets an extension, so hard ball might not be the best course.

To me, it's playing with fire where the risk outweighs the reward. This entire negotiation with Kyler has been a train wreck, between the anonymous trashing of Kyler, to sticking to a dumb timeline that will cost the Cards 10's of millions of dollars.

Poverty franchises shouldn't be alienating potential franchise savers. Not many guys can put a team on their back, and Kyler has shown some capacity for doing so. Do I have concerns about his leadership/durability? Of course! No player is without warts, but Kyler is worth the risk.

Barring something crazy happening, even if his performance is underwhelming, you'll still be able to ship him off for value.

 

[Chopper0080]

i think the alternative needs to be presented:

he plays this year for $5mm or so. its ugly, with a "hold-in" during camp etc, but he will be there week one.

if he doesnt improve, then i guess it is a win contract wise but I'm also not sure if his price goes down. Probably get into "demand a trade" territory next offseason.

Yes, there is the option year + 1 year of franchise, but do you really want your QB not wanting to play for you?

if he does improve, then the contract demands go way up.

net/net: if you give him the extension and he stays the same, then the Cards are in the Kirk Cousins/ Jared Goff / Carson Wentz scenario. Expensive QB, good enough to win games, not good enough to go far. Somehow the Rams and Eagles managed to spin those situations into wins

Not really, because so much can happen either way and honestly, what history shows is that guys are kinda who they are after they sign these big extensions.

 

[Chopper0080]

Kyler's a different dude, and respect matters to the elite. Kyler has already made noise that he won't play until he gets an extension, so hard ball might not be the best course.

To me, it's playing with fire where the risk outweighs the reward. This entire negotiation with Kyler has been a train wreck, between the anonymous trashing of Kyler, to sticking to a dumb timeline that will cost the Cards 10's of millions of dollars.

Poverty franchises shouldn't be alienating potential franchise savers. Not many guys can put a team on their back, and Kyler has shown some capacity for doing so. Do I have concerns about his leadership/durability? Of course! No player is without warts, but Kyler is worth the risk.

Barring something crazy happening, even if his performance is underwhelming, you'll still be able to ship him off for value.

Except no player has ever done this so you are creating a silly scenario. Again, it's like me arguing that he goes and plays baseball. It is a silly argument.

Also, let's not forget that this "negotiation" is all based upon Kyler demanding this happens now. The organization didn't front this and it is rare that QBs are extended prior to the off-season before their contract year.

So again, if this is as good as he gets, are you paying him 45 mil?

 

[Chopper0080]

For those who may think I am biased and don't want to check my vote, I voted that I would pay him. I am a bit hesitant about it but I probably pull the trigger even if I would only give him a three year extension.

 

[RON_IN_OC]

What I don't care about: How much money the team agrees to pay Kyler or any other player.

What I do care about: Contract is structured to allow the team to still have the flexibility to sign other players.