Interesting Buffalo Bills Stat

PACardsFan

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I was rewatching the Bills/Chiefs playoff game the other day, and came across a surprising stat. Buffalo was 0-6 in games that were decided by 7 points or less last season. That includes the playoff loss to the Chiefs. Their other loss was a 41-15 thumping at home to the Colts. Every one of their W’s was by more than a single score. Very odd indeed. So, in close games, Allen didn’t get the job done. Obviously we can’t blame him for the loss in the playoffs, as he never saw the field in OT. If Buffalo doesn’t kick the ball through the end zone with 13 seconds left, the Bills win that game. That loss was 100% on McDermott. Allen was great against a Chiefs secondary that lost a starting CB & Honey Badger on the 1st series of the game. Go back & watch that game. The Chiefs secondary was utterly confused the whole game & the Bills WR3 was running wide open for 4 touchdowns ALL day. Hopefully, the Chiefs D struggles early on with Honey Badger now with the Saints.
 

kerouac9

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I think you're mis-reading the data here.

The winner of a one-score games is essentially random -- that's why record in one-score games matters. If you're 5-0 in one score games, in most cases you're going to regress toward the mean and be closer to .500 the following season. Bruce Arians was the historical outlier, who was consistently better than .500 in one-score games over a large enough sample size that you could say he was doing something right.

It's scary to think, but Buffalo might be better next season. Vegas seems to agree, with an 11.5 win total over/under.
 
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PACardsFan

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I think you're mis-reading the data here.

The winner of a one-score games is essentially random -- that's why record in one-score games matters. If you're 5-0 in one score games, in most cases you're going to regress toward the mean and be closer to .500 the following season. Bruce Arians was the historical outlier, who was consistently better than .500 in one-score games over a large enough sample size that you could say he was doing something right.

It's scary to think, but Buffalo might be better next season. Vegas seems to agree, with an 11.5 win total over/under.
0-6 is 0-6. 3-3 would be the minimum expectation with a team as talented as Buffalo was. Especially in a relatively warm AFC East last year. And yes, they SHOULD be a juggernaut next season, but time will tell.
 

kerouac9

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0-6 is 0-6. 3-3 would be the minimum expectation with a team as talented as Buffalo was. Especially in a relatively warm AFC East last year. And yes, they SHOULD be a juggernaut next season, but time will tell.
Yes, but sometimes you flip a coin and get six heads in a row. Over time, you're going to end up 50/50. That's the point. It's probably foolhardy to say there's some defect in the Buffalo Bills or Josh Allen that makes it impossible to win one-score games. The were 5-1 in 2020 in one-score games.

It's just noise. Obviously, you'd prefer to keep the score close and hope to steal a win instead of getting your brains bashed in. But you'd really prefer to be up two scores late in the fourth quarter so there's no chance of a weird bounce (or a Hail Murray) flipping the result.
 

cardpa

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Maybe the Bills are cursed too. After all they went to 4 straight Super Bowls (1990-93) and lost all 4 of them. I wonder what the odds of that happening are?
 
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PACardsFan

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With the possible exception of the loss to the Giants, they were the lesser talented team in the other 3 losses. The Vikings didn’t lose 4 consecutive, but they lost 4 in pretty short order in the 70’s.
 

dreamcastrocks

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Maybe the Bills are cursed too. After all they went to 4 straight Super Bowls (1990-93) and lost all 4 of them. I wonder what the odds of that happening are?
6.125% ignoring all other factors...
 

oaken1

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Maybe the Bills are cursed too. After all they went to 4 straight Super Bowls (1990-93) and lost all 4 of them. I wonder what the odds of that happening are?
They are. I cursed them myself the day they destroyed the Raiders in the AFC CHAMPIONSHIP game. I cursed them to never win a super bowl until the Raiders do, and they proceeded to lose four in a row.
 

SissyBoyFloyd

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Bills are one of the greatest teams ever and their accomplishments continually fail to get the recognition they deserve. Just think how hard it is for any team to make it to 4 super bowls in a row. Not any of the other greatest teams ever could manage that feat.

I have followed them since the early '60s. Did you know that prior to the merger they also went to 3 AFL championship games in a row in the early '60s, 1964, 65, 66, and won the championship 2 or those 3 seasons.

Their current team will likewise dominate the coming years, and I bet will have the best overall record for this entire decade.
 
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