70.2% Chance for a 5-2 team to make the playoffs

[Chris_Sanders]

Everyone is talking about a 5-2 team making the playoffs, that was with 6 teams making the playoffs.

While there isn't any stats around that 7th team we can make these assumptions:

16 teams per conference with 6 teams = 37.5% chance to make the playoffs at 0-0. So 5-2 gets you to 70.2%, which is just under double the chance you had at 0-0

Adding that game adds a 6.3% chance. Using the above math you can reasonable double this as well at 5-2.

So really we should have had an 82.8% chance to make the playoffs at 5-2.

 

[Syracusecards]

Everyone is talking about a 5-2 team making the playoffs, that was with 6 teams making the playoffs.

While there isn't any stats around that 7th team we can make these assumptions:

16 teams per conference with 6 teams = 37.5% chance to make the playoffs at 0-0. So 5-2 gets you to 70.2%, which is just under double the chance you had at 0-0

Adding that game adds a 6.3% chance. Using the above math you can reasonable double this as well at 5-2.

So really we should have had an 82.8% chance to make the playoffs at 5-2.

93.7% of the people on this board know that already.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

93.7% of the people on this board know that already.

Hah it's just what the local media is harping on and their stats are flawed / understated. It's way worse

 

[AZman5103]

Everyone is talking about a 5-2 team making the playoffs, that was with 6 teams making the playoffs.

While there isn't any stats around that 7th team we can make these assumptions:

16 teams per conference with 6 teams = 37.5% chance to make the playoffs at 0-0. So 5-2 gets you to 70.2%, which is just under double the chance you had at 0-0

Adding that game adds a 6.3% chance. Using the above math you can reasonable double this as well at 5-2.

So really we should have had an 82.8% chance to make the playoffs at 5-2.

Not much of an excuse for a collapse like that without a major injury to a starting QB.

I think even an average coaching staff gets to the playoffs this year if you spot them 5-2.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Not much of an excuse for a collapse like that without a major injury to a starting QB.

I think even an average coaching staff gets to the playoffs this year if you spot them 5-2.

Or a crushing conference where you excelled and still didn't make it like the Dolphins at 10-6.

It's pretty damning.

 

[Devilmaycare]

93.7% of the people on this board know that already.

98.7% of the local media doesn't though.

 

[Cheesebeef]

We gave up the last playoff spot to a team that lost SIX games in a row during the middle of the season AND backed into the playoffs losing their last game of the season after having a three game lead with 7 games left.

incredibly impressive collapse.

 

[Brian in Mesa]

We gave up the last playoff spot to a team that lost SIX games in a row during the middle of the season AND backed into the playoffs losing their last game of the season after having a three game lead with 7 games left.

incredibly impressive collapse.

After that hot start (5-2 with people scratching their heads about the Detroit loss) it almost looked like we were tanking most of the rest of the games with the bonehead decisions, disappearing run game, penalties, etc. In hindsight the Hail Murray looks more like we screwed up and won the game rather than pulled out some miracle finish - and now that entire sequence/finish is just one great play in a miserably wasted season. Yay !!

 

[mjb21aztd]

Only the cards could blow it so bad lol