This game will be a treatise of KK's offensive "genius".

WisconsinCard

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Should have added I'm not bagging on the guy, just looking to see if he is progressing. I didn't like the pick at the time, but I get it now, and am happy he's a cardinal.
 

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Has anyone ever heard KM at the line of scrimmage yelling...kill..kill..kill? Honest question, because I have not. There should always be an option of two plays depending on the defensive lineup. This would have some determination on if he is reading the defense presnap.

There are always options and "kill, kill, kill" is often a ruse to confuse the "D".
 

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Relevant article from 10/7/20 (so before Jets game):

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.c...-kingsbury-deander-hopkins-cardinals-offense/

As I suspected, our best formation/play is running out of 10 personnel. Guessing a fair few of those are Kyler designed and/or scramble runs, but still creating space to run via spread is classic Texas and I would expect nothing less from Kliff against this Cowboys defense in Dallas.

It also highlights the need to get more quick game passes to Kirk. The offense was much better at WR screens last year and Kirk’s target rate on his best play type is clearly the reason why we have struggled on those plays this year.

Recipe for success is quick perimeter passing game, running out of 10, and then using those actions to create RPO deep and intermediate shots outside the hashes to Hop and down the seams to Izzy.

Also, Kliff’s 4th down decisionmaking, less the play calls (which have been good) than just the decision to go, is a significant benefit and shouldn’t be handwaved away.

Kliff is clearly a good coach and a good offensive playcaller: he took the 32nd ranked offense by a mile and immediately improved it to 13th (DVOA) with a rookie QB and no receivers. Last year the offense was 22nd in passing DVOA and 2nd in rushing DVOA: I think the rush offense will get better (Drake can’t play worse, Chase will get more looks, and Maxx Williams should be back soon).

This year, the Cardinals are 17th in passing DVOA and 7th in rushing DVOA. Both those numbers will bump up after this week.
 

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If you’re making a pie chart of (for lack of a better term, blame) I think think Kyler’s piece is bigger than Kliff’s of why the offense has been slightly below expectations to this point. He was unfairly inserted into the Mahomes/Lamar second year leap projection. He’s just not on their level yet and there’s nothing wrong with that. It doesn’t help team employees are retweeting MVP hype after two weeks.

His arc is just gonna be a year or two behind Lamar in terms of reaching dominant performances. I don’t like bringing up Mahomes because he’s in a different galaxy all together.
 

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I see it being posted, but we are middle of the pack in yards and a top 5 scoring defense thus far. Granted I don’t think the scoring defense is quite accurate, but I think we are much more of a mediocre defense than a bad one.
We have played the niners, lions, football team, panthers and jets. If we played good teams that scoring defense wouldn’t be ranked where it is right now.
 

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He is currently ranked 14th in QBR, just below Jared Goff, ahead of QBs like Matt Ryan and Big Ben. For a 2nd year QB, thats awesome.
This isn't me judging Kyler here, but it's painful for people to use ESPN's less than 10 year old made up metric as a valid judgement of quarterback success. It's not recognized by the NFL, and is used only to confuse people with the NFL's QB Rating/Passer Rating metric. It's basically the same as a PFF grade.

It's like if we made a WRR, RBR, TER... they're all based on arbitrary in-game definitions of "expected points," not a true statistic.

It should basically be called "player success rating."
 

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Has anyone ever heard KM at the line of scrimmage yelling...kill..kill..kill? Honest question, because I have not. There should always be an option of two plays depending on the defensive lineup. This would have some determination on if he is reading the defense presnap.

I have actually seen him change a few plays at the line of scrimmage :)
 

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We have played the niners, lions, football team, panthers and jets. If we played good teams that scoring defense wouldn’t be ranked where it is right now.
For sure and that's why I said that I don't think the scoring defense is quite accurate. That being said we are ranked 17th by DVOA and I believe that takes into account opponent. We certainly haven't shown to be a bad defense to this point and of course we won't have a complete understanding until we start facing some better offensive teams like our opponent this week. Like I said though, even if we do well on Monday a lot of people will just say it's because Dak got injured.
 
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This isn't me judging Kyler here, but it's painful for people to use ESPN's less than 10 year old made up metric as a valid judgement of quarterback success. It's not recognized by the NFL, and is used only to confuse people with the NFL's QB Rating/Passer Rating metric. It's basically the same as a PFF grade.

It's like if we made a WRR, RBR, TER... they're all based on arbitrary in-game definitions of "expected points," not a true statistic.

It should basically be called "player success rating."


They conveniently left out Ryan Fitzpatrick is #4 and that in 2018 Mitch Trubisky was #3 on the season.

QBR heavily favours running QBs. I don't feel its an accurate barometer.
 

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This isn't me judging Kyler here, but it's painful for people to use ESPN's less than 10 year old made up metric as a valid judgement of quarterback success.

its useful because passer rating doesnt give him credit for his running -- 300 yards at 7 ypc and 5 tds ought to go into the mix
 

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its useful because passer rating doesnt give him credit for his running -- 300 yards at 7 ypc and 5 tds ought to go into the mix
But not in evaluation as a quarterback. That's an overall player evaluation. It also doesn't have a set baseline against other QBs. It's based off of a mostly qualitative analysis of what the potential opportunity is on a play.

I mean, again, it's the same basic equivalent as a PFF grade. It's not a true, raw statistic.

This is a good breakdown:

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/3/13...rback-rating-redskins-alex-smith-kirk-cousins
 

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But not in evaluation as a quarterback. That's an overall player evaluation.

i might buy that for one game -- where, out of character, a QB runs for 50 yards and a td. QBR in that situation likely makes the QB look better than what can be expected.

but running is an integral part of K1s game. he consistently adds yardage with his legs -- and that has to be considered.
 

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QBR is better than passer rating for running QBs obviously but neither are particularly good for ranking a QBs ability. There are lots of examples of good ratings in bad games and vice versa. Heck Kyler's best passer rating is in his worst game.
 

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If Elliot goes off for 150 yards we cooked.
Here’s what worries me. We receive the kickoff and go 3 and out. Dallas gets the ball and has a 10 play 7 minute drive. We get the ball go no huddle 3 and out and put this defense right back on the field in under a minute.

Our defense is not going to stop Dallas. We need a couple of time consuming drives to help our defense.
I also think we are going to need 38 points to win this game.
 

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i might buy that for one game -- where, out of character, a QB runs for 50 yards and a td. QBR in that situation likely makes the QB look better than what can be expected.

but running is an integral part of K1s game. he consistently adds yardage with his legs -- and that has to be considered.
The problem is that QBR literally is impacted by gameflow and down and distance. Going for it on 4th down early in the game might have different weight than going for it in the 4th quarter... an excerpt from the above site:

"EPA is calculated based on the down, distance, and the yard line at snap, with each combination having its own point value. The point values are the average net point advantage the team on offense can expect given the particular down, distance, and field position. For example, a 1st and goal chance on the opponent’s’ 1 yard line heavily favors the offense, yielding a positive point value. On the other hand, a 3rd and 9 on the team’s own 3 yard line is heavily negative because it drastically favors the opponent.

The value of each play’s outcome is measured by the snap-to-snap change in expected points. This is called Expected Points Added. The Expected Points Added (or lost) in each play are divided among the contributing players on the field based on the role of each player and the type of play. Deeper throws give a higher share of credit to the QB, while screen passes give relatively less credit to the QB and more to the receiver.

Plays that occur in “trash time” are discounted by as much as 30%. Trash time is measured based on the leverage of each play which is primarily a function of score, time, and field position. Important, critical plays that are likely to change the outcome have high leverage, while plays that occur after the game has largely been already decided have low leverage. QBR discounts low leverage plays, but does not boost credit for “clutch” plays."

Who is arbitrarily defining "trash time?" When does that begin? If the team is down by 30 but comes back just to lose by 3, is that all "trash time?" Does Kyler's QBR in his first game against the Lions take a 20 point swing depending on if they tie it up or not? Expected points added? So a player's QBR takes a hit if the OC calls a screen pass?

It's just not statistically clean. As someone who works with data analytics, this is the kind of metric for success that drives me wild. (Sorry for the long post! Too much coffee.)
 

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Of course it can be, my point is I don't see him changing the play often. Most times there are two plays called and "kill" just means we're going to play number two. I don't buy the ruse theory at all.

It's not a theory, it's a fact spoken to by QB's and Coordinators in the past. And there are verbal instructions, word, a number that can be used to move from play one to two. What does "Omaha" mean or "Omaha, Omaha", or "Omaha, Omaha, Omaha"?
 

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It's not a theory, it's a fact spoken to by QB's and Coordinators in the past. And there are verbal instructions, word, a number that can be used to move from play one to two. What does "Omaha" mean or "Omaha, Omaha", or "Omaha, Omaha, Omaha"?

No going to argue with you, but you're wrong to think is not a way of calling an audible. I mean the only way it works as a ruse is if you only have one play called in the huddle. So you cant kill the only play you have called.

https://www.viqtorysports.com/what-does-kill-kill-mean-in-football/


The complexity has made it’s way into play-calling. Offensive coordinators will now call 2 plays in the huddle. The quarterback will then get to the line of scrimmage and determine which play should be run. A few variables that go into switching the play…

  • Defensive Front
  • Linebacker Alignment
  • Coverage
  • Blitzing Threat
  • Mismatch
The term “Kill Kill” refers to the quarterback checking to the second play. They will yell the word kill to tell the entire offense that the first play is no longer live, and that he’s switching it to the second play. It’s important for the quarterback to signal both physically and verbally to his teammates that he’s changing the play, or defensive players may be left unblocked.
 
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If Elliot goes off for 150 yards we cooked.
Here’s what worries me. We receive the kickoff and go 3 and out. Dallas gets the ball and has a 10 play 7 minute drive. We get the ball go no huddle 3 and out and put this defense right back on the field in under a minute.

Our defense is not going to stop Dallas. We need a couple of time consuming drives to help our defense.
I also think we are going to need 38 points to win this game.

I'm not sure 38 will be enough. I would venture to say 42-45 may be necessary. The Cowboys will be aggressive coming after KK. KK will need to make them pay with his legs. It'll be a tough game. Dallas will be playing for Dak & the officiating will be horrendous. You can count on that.
 

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I'm not sure 38 will be enough. I would venture to say 42-45 may be necessary. The Cowboys will be aggressive coming after KK. KK will need to make them pay with his legs. It'll be a tough game. Dallas will be playing for Dak & the officiating will be horrendous. You can count on that.

Kliff's offense has never scored more that 32 points. It's too slow and methodical to score more on it's own, especially with the number of stalled drives we have from penalties.

Without a defensive or ST touchdown to help (which we haven't had in how long?) then I can't see us breaking 32. Not without a considerable change in how deep we throw.
 

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I think this is going to be a brutal game to watch because we're not going to get any pressure on AD, and that WR core is going to run wild on our secondary. And I just don't trust our offense to put up enough points to win the game.
 

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Kliff's offense has never scored more that 32 points. It's too slow and methodical to score more on it's own, especially with the number of stalled drives we have from penalties.



Without a defensive or ST touchdown to help (which we haven't had in how long?) then I can't see us breaking 32. Not without a considerable change in how deep we throw.

The last sentence says it all for me. We have got to throw the ball deep more, less sideways. Take a shot or two or three. Let Hop go up and get it.
 

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