Sometimes the Race Goes to the Slow

Harry

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A few months ago it was no sure thing that pro sports teams would try to play in 2020. Then it seemed like every team had a plan. The question was who could really get a season started and how quickly. Now the MLB, the NHL and the NBA are rushing to get play under way. All this while the NFL goes about its business on almost its normal schedule. Sure minicamps were cancelled and the preseason truncated but the season schedule remained intact. As they wait, the NFL is going to school on what the other leagues are doing. They already learned from the MLB not to assume that a simple testing system will be enough. The NFL has immediately broadened their relationships with testing providers, especially labs.

One of the big issues they haven’t worked out is how to run a training camp. Bruce Arians is already on record as saying he believes every player will get the disease. Look for the NFL to break into units trying to keep small groups isolated from each other. You won’t likely see much 11 on 11 involving the two first units facing each other. Yes that will distort the improvement from practice.

They’re also going to pay close attention how the MLB handles travel. Of course air charters and exclusive bus lines are virtual certainties. Hotels figure to be reserved not only for a couple of days. Better to pick one hotel and simply continually reserve a large chunk of it. Contract with a CDC compliant cleaning service. Then have each visiting team use those rooms in turn. This won’t be the Hampton Inn. The goal is to restrict non-team access to anything the team uses.

Like the MLB, the NFL and the NHL, the NFL will have to rein in player behavior. The NHL already had a problem with with a group of Blues’ players carousing in a bar and coming up with the virus. There will be a premium on maturity. These are often players who aren’t known for this character trait. Starting later the NFL figures to have ample examples of bad behavior to point to in team meetings. The NBA bubble has already had a few quiet issues. They’ve announced they’ll be bringing in entertainment to Disney to make certain the players and their families have something to do with their spare time. Not sure the NFL can copy that.

Depth of players in the NBA will be an issue. The gap to the D League is huge. The NHL will struggle with this as well. The MLB saw the issue clearly. They’re setting up a pool of 60 players just so their 26 team rosters can be kept full of functional players. Look for the NFL to expand rosters, possibly through larger practice squads. Again the NFL can judge the MLB dropout rate.

In the end the NFL may be last to start and may have to toughest schedule to support. Nonetheless they can learn from others’ mistake by going last. However, the real final issue is having a long season even possible in the current reality? We can all speculate but only the realization of the effort will provide the answer.
 

kerouac9

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It's interesting. You can do socially distanced training camp where you never have more than groups of 10-12 working together for the whole of the camp period (OL, DL, LBs, RBs — Secondary and receiver groups would be the biggest strain).

Work out in the bubble — physical practices are rarely more than an hour, you can rotate groups in and out, and everyone else is in the classroom/meeting room/weight room.

If Arians is right and every NFL player gets the virus, you're going to have dead players, which is Goddell's nightmare. Statistically you'll have a handful of guys who don't make it, and that's before you count the coaches.
 

Zeem_Freeze

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If Arians is right and every NFL player gets the virus, you're going to have dead players, which is Goddell's nightmare. Statistically you'll have a handful of guys who don't make it, and that's before you count the coaches.

your math is terribly mistaken on the dead players take
 

kerouac9

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your math is terribly mistaken on the dead players take

60 players x 32 teams is 1902 total players. U.S. Case Fatality rate is 4% in the U.S. Even if you assume it's 0.5% for population reasons (younger players, better treatment), you're looking at 10 dead players.
 

Cheesebeef

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60 players x 32 teams is 1902 total players. U.S. Case Fatality rate is 4% in the U.S. Even if you assume it's 0.5% for population reasons (younger players, better treatment), you're looking at 10 dead players.

also, none of this takes into account the coaches, equipment and field staff that each team has.
 

dreamcastrocks

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60 players x 32 teams is 1902 total players. U.S. Case Fatality rate is 4% in the U.S. Even if you assume it's 0.5% for population reasons (younger players, better treatment), you're looking at 10 dead players.

Or the 80000 people that go to a game, and then go home to their families.
 

Zeem_Freeze

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60 players x 32 teams is 1902 total players. U.S. Case Fatality rate is 4% in the U.S. Even if you assume it's 0.5% for population reasons (younger players, better treatment), you're looking at 10 dead players.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14863

You dont have to assume a death rate. substantial data out there. The age group 25-34 makes up .676% of Covid deaths. not even 1% of total deaths!

the death rate for 25-34 is .00027 % (.04 x .00676 = .00027)

so 1902 total players x .00027 = .51

bottom line = you have one player thats half dead, lol. and thats under the assumption NFL players react the same way as every 25 - 34 yr old in the country and thats just not the case. Extremely unlikely any player would die. staff on the other hand.... (also remember this is assuming EVERY player gets it, which wont happen).

the season will happen.
 
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JeffGollin

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So it all boils down to positivity and mortality statistics as a percentage of population norms. (The extent to which those percentages exceed population numbers become a pretty good indicator of the seriousness of the problem and whether various strategies are effective enough to continue executing those strategies).

If the League (& for that matter, society) is to preserve its credibility, the numbers we use to combat these trends should be laid out clearly in advance and signed-off on - so that everyone is on the same page.

Without some sort of unity, the process of identifying and fighting the COVID-19 problem and designing a competitive platform for fans to follow and support wil turn into a wild west show replete with finger-pointing and doubts as to the validity of the process.

That's why I continue to view the current NFL plan as still fragile at best and suggest that a Plan B be created centered around a Combine -style competition built around individual skill-contests where 6-foot rule standards can be retained.
 

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https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14863

You dont have to assume a death rate. substantial data out there. The age group 25-34 makes up .676% of Covid deaths. not even 1% of total deaths!

the death rate for 25-34 is .00027 % (.04 x .00676 = .00027)

so 1902 total players x .00027 = .51

bottom line = you have one player thats half dead, lol. and thats under the assumption NFL players react the same way as every 25 - 34 yr old in the country and thats just not the case. Extremely unlikely any player would die. staff on the other hand.... (also remember this is assuming EVERY player gets it, which wont happen).

the season will happen.

Your first stat doesn't have anything to do with what we're talking about, so whatever.

Using what I think is probably an optimistic small study in Geneva (5000 cases, 286 deaths through 6/1/20). The infection fatality rate for 20-49 years olds is about 0.01%. If everyone in the NFL gets COVID, you'd expect one player to die, but I'm guessing in the U.S. the rate is higher than that.
 

Zeem_Freeze

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Your first stat doesn't have anything to do with what we're talking about, so whatever.

Using what I think is probably an optimistic small study in Geneva (5000 cases, 286 deaths through 6/1/20). The infection fatality rate for 20-49 years olds is about 0.01%. If everyone in the NFL gets COVID, you'd expect one player to die, but I'm guessing in the U.S. the rate is higher than that.
so is it 10 or 1? those are very different things. and as I stated, the odds point to 1 death if the sample of 1902 people is a standard human being.

we all know NFL players arent standard.... no active NFL players will die.
 

Buckybird

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60 players x 32 teams is 1902 total players. U.S. Case Fatality rate is 4% in the U.S. Even if you assume it's 0.5% for population reasons (younger players, better treatment), you're looking at 10 dead players.
You sound like Dr Fauci who’s been way off in every single one of his predictions :mrgreen:
 

cardpa

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I agree with K9's point, no matter which way you cut it, if NFL players catch the virus at a similar rate as the current US rate somehow, someway, you are going to end up with one or more dead players. There has been more than enough evidence of what are described as perfectly healthy people who have sub-crumbed to the virus. Why would NFL players be an exception?
 

Zeno

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Your first stat doesn't have anything to do with what we're talking about, so whatever.

Using what I think is probably an optimistic small study in Geneva (5000 cases, 286 deaths through 6/1/20). The infection fatality rate for 20-49 years olds is about 0.01%. If everyone in the NFL gets COVID, you'd expect one player to die, but I'm guessing in the U.S. the rate is higher than that.

Even if you don't have multiple player deaths there is a chance you'll have players who will not be able to play again due to the long term effects the virus has on some of the patients lung capacity. Forced retirements would be almost as big of a nightmare as well.
 

Zeem_Freeze

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guys this is not rocket science.

Kerouac's math was based on 2 assumptions: every NFL player will get covid AND every NFL player will follow average death rate (.04%)

those two assumptions are misguided. why ignore the fact that they are younger people? why not use the average death rate for their age group and then do the math?

no NFL player will die, mark my words.
 

LoyaltyisaCurse

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guys this is not rocket science.

Kerouac's math was based on 2 assumptions: every NFL player will get covid AND every NFL player will follow average death rate (.04%)

those two assumptions are misguided. why ignore the fact that they are younger people? why not use the average death rate for their age group and then do the math?

no NFL player will die, mark my words.
That is boldly misguided. Let’s use PP as an example/ he has diabetes which places him in a high risk group. How many players have asthma? How many lineman are obese or have other health problems?
 
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Zeem_Freeze

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That is boldly misguided. Let’s use PP as an example/ he has diabetes which lies him in a high risk group. How many players have asthma? How many lineman are obese or have other health problems?
ok agree to disagree. we'll see how it plays out
 

Dr. Jones

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I agree with K9's point, no matter which way you cut it, if NFL players catch the virus at a similar rate as the current US rate somehow, someway, you are going to end up with one or more dead players. There has been more than enough evidence of what are described as perfectly healthy people who have sub-crumbed to the virus. Why would NFL players be an exception?
Kyler's new uniform.....

You must be registered for see images
 

Chris_Sanders

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guys this is not rocket science.

Kerouac's math was based on 2 assumptions: every NFL player will get covid AND every NFL player will follow average death rate (.04%)

those two assumptions are misguided. why ignore the fact that they are younger people? why not use the average death rate for their age group and then do the math?

no NFL player will die, mark my words.

We have had multiple athletes contract it already. 4 Dbacks alone had it as asymptomatic.

Most that get it wouldn't even know without the enhanced testing.
 

Chris_Sanders

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I absolutely believe athletes will get it and it will determine the outcome of the season because of the quarantine.

I also believe the death rate is very overstated right now. We are only testing those that get sick and the majority never even exhibit symptoms.
 

Chris_Sanders

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https://globalbiodefense.com/2020/0...ge-percentage-of-asymptomatic-covid-19-cases/

This is a very good article about why all our numbers are garbage right now

“The result concerning asymptomatic carriers is key. We took a picture of the Vò population and found that about half of the population testing positive had no symptoms at the time of testing and some of them developed symptoms in the following days,” said Professor Enrico Lavezzo, from the Department of Molecular Medicine at the University of Padua. “This tells us that if we find a certain number of symptomatic people testing positive, we expect the same number of asymptomatic carriers that are much more difficult to identify and isolate.
 

Chris_Sanders

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That's not what that article is about at all.

The article is about how when isolated we see a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases then expected.

This is consistent with our partners in NY who tested entire staff at facilities they service and found that most had contracted COVID and had no idea.

The higher the testing, the lower the death percentage. This is a complete fact.
 

Yuma

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The article is about how when isolated we see a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases then expected.

This is consistent with our partners in NY who tested entire staff at facilities they service and found that most had contracted COVID and had no idea.

The higher the testing, the lower the death percentage. This is a complete fact.
Also basic statistics.
 

kerouac9

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The article is about how when isolated we see a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases then expected.

This is consistent with our partners in NY who tested entire staff at facilities they service and found that most had contracted COVID and had no idea.

The higher the testing, the lower the death percentage. This is a complete fact.


Yes, but it doesn't say "our numbers are garbage right now." It actually says:

The Vò study demonstrates that the early identification of infection clusters and the timely isolation of symptomatic as well as asymptomatic infections can suppress transmission and curb an epidemic in its early phase. This is particularly relevant today, given the current risk of new infection clusters and of a second wave of transmission.

...

"We took a picture of the Vò population and found that about half of the population testing positive had no symptoms at the time of testing and some of them developed symptoms in the following days,” said Professor Enrico Lavezzo, from the Department of Molecular Medicine at the University of Padua. “This tells us that if we find a certain number of symptomatic people testing positive, we expect the same number of asymptomatic carriers that are much more difficult to identify and isolate."

I agree that we don't know what the case fatality rate is, within any demographic.
 

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