How many times will lightning strike?

Solar7

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One last swath of negativity to get it out of my system as we enter the first week of the offseason in earnest.

Following on a conversation in another thread, I find myself asking about the fanbase: Just how many times can we expect lightning to strike?

It seems like a dangerous but oft-repeated mantra here: "I believe he'll be better here." That applies for Kliff Kingsbury, Kenyan Drake, even in some degrees to Kyler Murray. This works from time to time, but Steve Keim has been setting a dangerous precedent in continuing to think he's smarter than everyone else in the room. I think we're a little blinded by our biases as fans, and really hoping for the best.

If we changed the names on the team to say, the Lions, and I told you back when we were at our peak in 2015 that the worst team in the league would attempt to fix everything by signing a losing college head coach who was just fired from his alma mater and got no other coaching offers, drafting the shortest QB in 1st round history who had only played one full season of college football #1 overall, and remedying the RB position by trading for and then paying an RB with 5 total 100 yard games in four years of play, you'd all have laughed. I'm sure it would have sounded something like "wow, sounds like the classic Lions to me."

I can be pervadingly negative, but it's because when I talk to my friends who know the NFL inside and out, including people who work in the industry, people who set the lines here in Vegas, and more, I get laughed at and asked "dude, what are your Cardinals doing?" My negative outlook and some of my hard-line stances here come from a lot of those conversations, because I feel like this place is wearing rose-colored glasses, hoping for a Cinderella story that probably isn't coming.

Now, 2020 is getting underway. Let's see what Keim has up his sleeve. So far he hasn't done anything I'm wildly against. I just want to see some savvy, traditional football moves. No more "well, no one's ever done this, and IF this guy does x, y, and z, we'll be great!" No more spending your draft capital replacing your entire draft from the year prior. No wasting of precious draft picks on hail mary overpaid players. Build the belly of the team, develop some young talent, create a sustainable winning team for the future.

All that said, go Cardinals, and let's hope for the best as things get started!
 

Dr. Jones

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How about we change our name to:

the Seahawks from the late 80's or early 90's?
The Patriots from the early 90's or even right before 2000?

I think our destiny could easily change just like theirs did with the drafting of a top QB.

Everyone thinks they know who the bad teams are until right before they aren't anymore.
 

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It’s called rebuilding. Wasn’t that long ago we were contenders with a veteran win now type squad. Those guys got old and we had to start over. That’s kind of how things work.

If you ask me this team looks headed in the right direction.
 

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No hindsight at all, but I would’ve admired the Lions hiring a controversial, yet, intriguing hire in Kingsbury, while doubling down on that & drafting a shorter than usual, but athletic specimen at QB. I like stuff being done outside of the norm, instead of sticking to the “same Ole boys league” mantra.

I know some think of him different here, but do you know how upset I would be if we hired Rivera if we needed a HC this year?
 

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Yeah. Maybe we should have kept Wilks and Rosen. I mean we don’t replace last years draft choices with picks this year.

I think it’s just as bad if not worse holding on to players waiting for them to blossom like dicchie, to some degree Reddick and others.

KK might not work out. I think he will. But right or wrong this team made a move in what appears to be ahead of the curve in the direction the NFL seems to be moving in.

Remember how Billichek sucked? Solar you have preached over and over how depleted this roster is of talent. Yet a rookie head coach and a rookie qb with basically the exact offensive roster from 2018 turned a 32 nd rank offense into a 16 th ranked offense in one year. How in the hell do you not recognize that accomplishment?

How do you not recognize how KK adjusted his offense as the season went on?

This rebuild is totally different than what we’ve seen here in the past. We had a veteran squad that was competitive and got old. Keims biggest mistake was not recognizing this at the end of 2017. When Arians left it was over but at that time we were limited with what he could do. Signing Bradford was a huge mistake. But that’s over.

Today we have a team that is younger with some solid players in not nearly enough positions yet. But we have a qb. We have a head coach and an entire staff with a complete picture of what they have. They have a complete picture of what we need.

I will be really disappointed if we were to trade a first round pick and sign Chris Jones. I want to see us sign the guys we want from last years roster and 2 or 3 solid players on defense.

Add good players in the draft. Any good player in any position will be good because I look at draft picks for what they will be in 2021 and not instantly contributing and turning the franchise around in 2020.

CeeDee could be our replacement for Fitz. A solid guard could replace Sweezey. A 3rd round OT could replace Murray.

You keep saying we were stupid for hiring KK. You also were totally against drafting Kyler and deep down inside I think you still are.

I will say this. If we would have stuck with Wills and Rosen we would have probably been drafting first again and needing to draft a qb this year.

Many here are going to be down in the dumps when we don’t make the news in the first 20 minutes of free agency.

One thing is for sure. No matter what we do you will find something wrong with it. Because you are “ The Prophet of Doom”.
 

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For as much as the NFL changes, what wins games stays the same.

1. Great QB play - if you have a top 10 QB, you are going to be in the playoffs often, and once you're in the playoffs anything can happen.

2. Run the ball - teams with dominant run games can get into the playoffs and even the SB (SF & Tenn)

3. Stop the run and have a defense that doesn't give up lots of big plays. - If you stop the run, and you limit big plays, teams have to work really hard to score on you. Time is in your favor, and you can win a lot of games.

I think Kyler could be a top 10 QB in the NFL in the next couple of years. I think we can run the ball well in this system, and with Kyler as a dual threat.

What we can't do right now is stop the run and stop big plays. This is whats keeping us out of the playoffs. We need to invest heavily in the defense in FA, and hopefully hit on a couple of draft picks.

I think we have the capability to be in the playoffs at least 2 out of the next 4 years. Honestly, I will take a team that makes the playoffs at a 50% clip....because all it takes is catching fire during the playoffs and you end up with a SB.
 

Jetstream Green

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For as much as the NFL changes, what wins games stays the same.

1. Great QB play - if you have a top 10 QB, you are going to be in the playoffs often, and once you're in the playoffs anything can happen.

2. Run the ball - teams with dominant run games can get into the playoffs and even the SB (SF & Tenn)

3. Stop the run and have a defense that doesn't give up lots of big plays. - If you stop the run, and you limit big plays, teams have to work really hard to score on you. Time is in your favor, and you can win a lot of games.

I think Kyler could be a top 10 QB in the NFL in the next couple of years. I think we can run the ball well in this system, and with Kyler as a dual threat.

What we can't do right now is stop the run and stop big plays. This is whats keeping us out of the playoffs. We need to invest heavily in the defense in FA, and hopefully hit on a couple of draft picks.

I think we have the capability to be in the playoffs at least 2 out of the next 4 years. Honestly, I will take a team that makes the playoffs at a 50% clip....because all it takes is catching fire during the playoffs and you end up with a SB.

This!
 
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Solar7

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Why we gotta be the lions?
I was just trying to pick another team with a history of being awful. Like it or not, that applies to us.

How about we change our name to:

the Seahawks from the late 80's or early 90's?
The Patriots from the early 90's or even right before 2000?

I think our destiny could easily change just like theirs did with the drafting of a top QB.

Everyone thinks they know who the bad teams are until right before they aren't anymore.
I'm too young to argue the Seahawks, but the Patriots didn't make any wild, out of the box moves to get where they were. They already had a QB of note in Drew Bledsoe, they hired a long tenured NFL retread as HC, and built the team on pretty standard traditional football concepts.

No hindsight at all, but I would’ve admired the Lions hiring a controversial, yet, intriguing hire in Kingsbury, while doubling down on that & drafting a shorter than usual, but athletic specimen at QB. I like stuff being done outside of the norm, instead of sticking to the “same Ole boys league” mantra.

I know some think of him different here, but do you know how upset I would be if we hired Rivera if we needed a HC this year?
You and I disagree, but at least you're consistent.

(I'll cont. with other points to make this easier to read.)
 
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Solar7

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Yeah. Maybe we should have kept Wilks and Rosen. I mean we don’t replace last years draft choices with picks this year.

I think it’s just as bad if not worse holding on to players waiting for them to blossom like dicchie, to some degree Reddick and others.
At some point you have to point the finger at the guy who keeps drafting these failures. Moving on by getting rid of Keim and admitting he can't do his job anymore would be fine. But year after year, it's the same old refrain... last year's guys can't cut it, time to move on, time to let the same guy who messed up have a mulligan... again and again.

Remember how Billichek sucked? Solar you have preached over and over how depleted this roster is of talent. Yet a rookie head coach and a rookie qb with basically the exact offensive roster from 2018 turned a 32 nd rank offense into a 16 th ranked offense in one year. How in the hell do you not recognize that accomplishment?

How do you not recognize how KK adjusted his offense as the season went on?
I don't recognize the "accomplishment" because while he managed to squeeze improvement out of a bad offense, the defense ended up 32nd under his watch. It's not much of a net positive improvement. Good on him for making some adjustments, but he also still made awful head coaching decisions in the heat of the moment, all season long.

You keep saying we were stupid for hiring KK. You also were totally against drafting Kyler and deep down inside I think you still are.
I think the KK hire was terrible, yes. And Kyler has a long way to go before I'm anointing him. Early returns have been solid, but there's a lot more that needs to happen. In a vacuum, one of these choices is a fine risk. In the situation that we're hoping for all three things to come together and cobble together a winning car out of mostly discarded parts? I'm not enthusiastic. As for the rest, I've never said we should have kept Wilks. I didn't want to draft Kyler, but Rosen has shown he also would not have been the answer.

One thing is for sure. No matter what we do you will find something wrong with it. Because you are “ The Prophet of Doom”.
I'll be fine as long as we don't make wildly dumb moves, or hail mary ridiculous stretches on more guys hoping they'll become something they've never been.
 
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Solar7

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For as much as the NFL changes, what wins games stays the same.

1. Great QB play - if you have a top 10 QB, you are going to be in the playoffs often, and once you're in the playoffs anything can happen.

2. Run the ball - teams with dominant run games can get into the playoffs and even the SB (SF & Tenn)

3. Stop the run and have a defense that doesn't give up lots of big plays. - If you stop the run, and you limit big plays, teams have to work really hard to score on you. Time is in your favor, and you can win a lot of games.

I think Kyler could be a top 10 QB in the NFL in the next couple of years. I think we can run the ball well in this system, and with Kyler as a dual threat.

What we can't do right now is stop the run and stop big plays. This is whats keeping us out of the playoffs. We need to invest heavily in the defense in FA, and hopefully hit on a couple of draft picks.

I think we have the capability to be in the playoffs at least 2 out of the next 4 years. Honestly, I will take a team that makes the playoffs at a 50% clip....because all it takes is catching fire during the playoffs and you end up with a SB.
I agree with everything you laid out. I don't see the capability to be in the playoffs 2 of the next four years unless Keim is gone or KK & staff pull a rabbit out of their hat.
 

AZman5103

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I agree with everything you laid out. I don't see the capability to be in the playoffs 2 of the next four years unless Keim is gone or KK & staff pull a rabbit out of their hat.

I say that because I legitimately feel like we were very close to winning 4 more games this year, and if our defense had been even average we could have been at 8-9 wins.

Now I also expect natural improvement from KM and KK...and if we invest in the defense during FA and hit on a couple of draft picks, we will have even better improvement.

Also factor in the real possibility of a 3rd wild card team in the new CBA.

Obviously there are a ton of unknowns, but if KM becomes a top 10 QB, and the rest of the team put together even half way competently, then we should be in the hunt for a wildcard every year, and the division in some.

Its just very hard to find a team with a top 10 QB who isn't making the playoffs at around a 50% clip during that QB's tenure.
 
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Solar7

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I say that because I legitimately feel like we were very close to winning 4 more games this year, and if our defense had been even average we could have been at 8-9 wins.

Now I also expect natural improvement from KM and KK...and if we invest in the defense during FA and hit on a couple of draft picks, we will have even better improvement.

Also factor in the real possibility of a 3rd wild card team in the new CBA.

Obviously there are a ton of unknowns, but if KM becomes a top 10 QB, and the rest of the team put together even half way competently, then we should be in the hunt for a wildcard every year, and the division in some.

Its just very hard to find a team with a top 10 QB who isn't making the playoffs at around a 50% clip during that QB's tenure.
Again, more power to you, but I don't see any reason to believe any of that at the moment.
 

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One last swath of negativity to get it out of my system as we enter the first week of the offseason in earnest.

Following on a conversation in another thread, I find myself asking about the fanbase: Just how many times can we expect lightning to strike?

It seems like a dangerous but oft-repeated mantra here: "I believe he'll be better here." That applies for Kliff Kingsbury, Kenyan Drake, even in some degrees to Kyler Murray. This works from time to time, but Steve Keim has been setting a dangerous precedent in continuing to think he's smarter than everyone else in the room. I think we're a little blinded by our biases as fans, and really hoping for the best.

If we changed the names on the team to say, the Lions, and I told you back when we were at our peak in 2015 that the worst team in the league would attempt to fix everything by signing a losing college head coach who was just fired from his alma mater and got no other coaching offers, drafting the shortest QB in 1st round history who had only played one full season of college football #1 overall, and remedying the RB position by trading for and then paying an RB with 5 total 100 yard games in four years of play, you'd all have laughed. I'm sure it would have sounded something like "wow, sounds like the classic Lions to me."

I can be pervadingly negative, but it's because when I talk to my friends who know the NFL inside and out, including people who work in the industry, people who set the lines here in Vegas, and more, I get laughed at and asked "dude, what are your Cardinals doing?" My negative outlook and some of my hard-line stances here come from a lot of those conversations, because I feel like this place is wearing rose-colored glasses, hoping for a Cinderella story that probably isn't coming.

Now, 2020 is getting underway. Let's see what Keim has up his sleeve. So far he hasn't done anything I'm wildly against. I just want to see some savvy, traditional football moves. No more "well, no one's ever done this, and IF this guy does x, y, and z, we'll be great!" No more spending your draft capital replacing your entire draft from the year prior. No wasting of precious draft picks on hail mary overpaid players. Build the belly of the team, develop some young talent, create a sustainable winning team for the future.

All that said, go Cardinals, and let's hope for the best as things get started!

I laughed at the Seahawks when they started Russell Wilson and stuck with loser head coach Pete Carroll, who had back to back 7-9 seasons.

I think you vastly discount the 30% offensive improvement by the Cardinals with fairly pedestrian receivers and implementing a system that had never been used full time in the NFL.

You are so caught up in what has been conventionally done, to the point that you vastly discounted what was like the 2nd or 3rd best college passing performance EVER by Murray.

And now you are discounting the idea that Kingsbury can win because he didnt in college, even though his specialty, his offense, was consistently one of the best in college even though Lubbock, Texas sucks donkey nuts and it's fairly regularly concluded by anyone who has even watched Pee wee football that lacking top athletes usually means your defense is going to suck.
 
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I laughed at the Seahawks when they started Russell Wilson and stuck with loser head coach Pete Carroll, who had back to back 7-9 seasons.

I think you vastly discount the 30% offensive improvement by the Cardinals with fairly pedestrian receivers and implementing a system that had never been used full time in the NFL.

You are so caught up in what has been conventionally done, to the point that you vastly discounted what was like the 2nd or 3rd best college passing performance EVER by Murray.

And now you are discounting the idea that Kingsbury can win because he didnt in college, even though his specialty, his offense, was consistently one of the best in college even though Lubbock, Texas sucks donkey nuts and it's fairly regularly concluded by anyone who has even watched Pee wee football that lacking top athletes usually means your defense is going to suck.
Any time a player or coach is criticized, we unpack the excuses for them. I wish my job was this forgiving.

Kliff's offense is alright. It's not revolutionary, it's decent, but our defense is atrocious and he knows nothing about it. Great that he had an awesome offense in college, but it still didn't lead to wins. Kliff could have a top 10 offense in the NFL, and if the defense is still so bad that he can't win games, he's not going to have a job in the NFL. Winning is what matters, not moral victories.

This roster is so full of unknowns, and the winning teams in the NFL aren't. Every talk about success is "well if everything goes exactly right and this player plays much better than they ever have..."

It reminds me of how I used to talk about the team back in 2002/2003.
 

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Any time a player or coach is criticized, we unpack the excuses for them. I wish my job was this forgiving.

Kliff's offense is alright. It's not revolutionary, it's decent, but our defense is atrocious and he knows nothing about it. Great that he had an awesome offense in college, but it still didn't lead to wins. Kliff could have a top 10 offense in the NFL, and if the defense is still so bad that he can't win games, he's not going to have a job in the NFL. Winning is what matters, not moral victories.

This roster is so full of unknowns, and the winning teams in the NFL aren't. Every talk about success is "well if everything goes exactly right and this player plays much better than they ever have..."

It reminds me of how I used to talk about the team back in 2002/2003.

Those 2002/2003 had literally no talent dude.

Boldins rookie year he was easily the best player on the team.

Do you watch college football like at all? Recruiting is pretty much how you build a good team. Kingsburys biggest failing at Texas Tech was his inability to recruit. That's not an issue in the pros.
 

Krangodnzr

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Any time a player or coach is criticized, we unpack the excuses for them. I wish my job was this forgiving.

Kliff's offense is alright. It's not revolutionary, it's decent, but our defense is atrocious and he knows nothing about it. Great that he had an awesome offense in college, but it still didn't lead to wins. Kliff could have a top 10 offense in the NFL, and if the defense is still so bad that he can't win games, he's not going to have a job in the NFL. Winning is what matters, not moral victories.

This roster is so full of unknowns, and the winning teams in the NFL aren't. Every talk about success is "well if everything goes exactly right and this player plays much better than they ever have..."

It reminds me of how I used to talk about the team back in 2002/2003.

I think the Cardinals ARE going to build a competitive team as soon as next year.

What I worry about is that it wont be sustainable since there isnt a good amount of cheap young talent on the roster.
 

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when I wonder if Keim is any good -- I look at a guy like John Schneider of the Seahawks

he came out of the gate blazing in his first three drafts 2010, 2011, 2012...… ending with Russel Wilson in 2012.

since then...…. kinda hit or miss

had some high profile busts: OT Germain Ifedi has been a continuous source of irritation for Seahawk fans (and who is a UFA this year, leaving SEA fans to wonder if he is worth keeping) , Malik McDowell never played, and Rashad Penny has been a disappointment. Its like the Seattle version of DJ Humphries, Nkemdiche and Isabella --- but worse.

Last years top pick, LJ Collier took 11 games to collect........ 2 tackles.

Point here is that someone most in the NFL describe as an upper tier GM has misses, and ebbs and flows.

we are due for some Keim flood tide
 
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Those 2002/2003 had literally no talent dude.

Boldins rookie year he was easily the best player on the team.

Do you watch college football like at all? Recruiting is pretty much how you build a good team. Kingsburys biggest failing at Texas Tech was his inability to recruit. That's not an issue in the pros.
Yes, and in 2002/2003, I wanted us to be a good team so bad that I was sure Jake Plummer and David Boston were a dynamic offensive combo. That Josh McCown was a future star with all of the tools. That Jason McAddley had #1 potential as long as Sullivan just coached him up.

I learned a lesson over time. This board has a very short memory for how bad some of last year's games were, or the horrible choices Kingsbury made on the field. I understand recruiting was an issue at TT. It's been repeated ad nauseum. Just because recruiting is hard, doesn't make Kliff a good head coach. He's still completely hands-off with the defense, which is not what a good HC should be doing.
 

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Any time a player or coach is criticized, we unpack the excuses for them. I wish my job was this forgiving.

Kliff's offense is alright. It's not revolutionary, it's decent, but our defense is atrocious and he knows nothing about it. Great that he had an awesome offense in college, but it still didn't lead to wins. Kliff could have a top 10 offense in the NFL, and if the defense is still so bad that he can't win games, he's not going to have a job in the NFL. Winning is what matters, not moral victories.

This roster is so full of unknowns, and the winning teams in the NFL aren't. Every talk about success is "well if everything goes exactly right and this player plays much better than they ever have..."

It reminds me of how I used to talk about the team back in 2002/2003.

Don't confuse excuses with reasons!
 
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Don't confuse excuses with reasons!
When these players or coaches suddenly only have become good or great because they're on our team, I'm not buying it as a "reason."

If Drake is so good and just misused, why did he ultimately get traded for a 5th/6th round pick? Why weren't there tons of teams chasing Kingsbury out of the gate, or articles talking about how great KK was, but just had a bad go of it with with recruiting?

Especially given that there's been a full year in the NFL under him, and he still has a defense, with a DPOY candidate, that was 32nd.
 
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