2017 NFL Draft "The Patrick Mahomes Draft"

[TheCardFan]

Don’t forget Reuben Foster, who many on this board touted as the next Ray Lewis.

I was one of them (maybe not Ray Lewis). His issue isn't talent though.

 

[AZfaninMN]

I was one of them (maybe not Ray Lewis). His issue isn't talent though.

You’re right. All the talent in the world, just can’t stay away from trouble.

 

[MadCardDisease]

People overthink it. It sounds crazy, but it is true. Also, a group think mentality and cronyism.

If you analyze this draft...the Bears went wrong valuing a QB with less reps and snaps + less success than two QBs with more experience and more success. I get the hesitation on Mahomes but there is no reason they should have taken Trubisky over Watson.

Look at the Jaguars and Fournette. It took them 2 years to use their top 10 pick on every down. Why take a RB that high and not use him on every down. And, if he isn't good enough, why are you taking him that high?

Titans, Chargers, and Bengals took WRs when they all had other significant issues. Did the Bengals really need a vertical WR at 9 when they had a QB in Dalton who does not throw vertically? Did the Chargers need another WR when they were already struggling to protect Rivers?

You look at the teams that got it right, and it isn't that they made great picks, but they made the picks that fit what they wanted to do and created value.

I don't agree with that at all.

The fact of the matter is preparing for the NFL draft is not a science. There is no telling how a college player will translate to the NFL. There are just too many variables to predict success:

Was the player succeeding in college because he was surrounded by great teammates?

Was the player succeeding in college because of inferior talent on the other side of the ball?

Was the player succeeding because of the college scheme they were in?

Can a player hold up against elite NFL talent?

Can a player stay healthy during a grueling NFL season?

Is a player mature enough to handle the Money and Fame that comes with being a NFL player?

Is a player willing to put in the extra effort off the field to be successful in the NFL?


Great "sure thing" can't miss prospects have come into the NFL on a regular basis and struggled. That is not because someone "over thought it".

 

[Solar7]

I did. Search the posts from that time. I watched him score a ton of points against ASU. Made legit NFL throws.

I loved Mahomes & Watson too. I was stumping for them. Look at us agreeing!

My issues with Keim is that he:

1) Looks to much at physical ability and not enough at fit, desire, and injury history. He has drafted multiple guys that fit those descriptions.

2) He let's too many good veterans go. We have all supported at least a few of the instances he has let a veteran go, but in the aggregate, he was wrong almost every time. If half of the veterans he let go had been kept, the Cardinals likely arent 5-10-1 last year.

3) He took too long to get QBOF and didnt gamble to bring one in. The 2017 draft was the perfect spot to get your QBOF. Based on Arians comments, Watson was their guy. TRADE UP to get him. If they had done so, the Cardinals would possibly have been a playoff contender this year.

At least he realized his mistakes on QB, but then he drafts Rosen, a guy who has questionable football desire and has rubbed a number of coaches and teammates the wrong way. Jim Mora's faint praise should have been a damning indictment to NOT draft Rosen.

Now Keim has one last chance in my eyes to surround Murray with players that he can win with.

I don't think Keim had a reasonable shot of getting either, and don't blame him for it. But I blame him for plenty else, and I know we've had this argument on this board a ton, haha. Look at us disagreeing.

 

[Chopper0080]

I don't agree with that at all.

The fact of the matter is preparing for the NFL draft is not a science. There is no telling how a college player will translate to the NFL. There are just too many variables to predict success:

Was the player succeeding in college because he was surrounded by great teammates?

Was the player succeeding in college because of inferior talent on the other side of the ball?

Was the player succeeding because of the college scheme they were in?

Can a player hold up against elite NFL talent?

Can a player stay healthy during a grueling NFL season?

Is a player mature enough to handle the Money and Fame that comes with being a NFL player?

Is a player willing to put in the extra effort off the field to be successful in the NFL?


Great "sure thing" can't miss prospects have come into the NFL on a regular basis and struggled. That is not because someone "over thought it".

It isn't a science but it takes self awareness and there are ways to limit risk. How was the player successful in college and can they replicate that at the professional level. That is the question that you should ask regarding every player.

It is like the Murray pick. Taking Murray was taking a max-risk, outlier player. Size and experience alone should have scared the Cardinals off. If it works out no one will acknowledge how risky that pick was.

Reddick...was a risky pick because we took an older player who played in a poor conference whose production came mostly when he was just more mature than the people he was playing against. His size was below the standard for 3-4 OLBs which is as close to the position he played in college as possible to get. We moved him into a position where instincts and experience are pre-requisites.

Again, John Ross. Draft a vertical only player who is small from a conference with a lack of NFL quality DBs and put him in an offense with a QB who does not throw the ball vertically.

I can go on and on. The signs are there. Are there outliers? Sure. But most guys who fail do so because how they are successful in college does not match how they can be successful in the NFL or it is not how the team wants to use them.

 

[Cardinal]

Don't anyone pretend you thought Mahomes would be what he is. No one anywhere predicted this.

team matters too. Mahomes might not be Mahomes is he was a bear.

If you followed Mahomes throughout college you just knew he was special. Brett Farve without all the interceptions. His teams at Tech sucked but he still produced. I wasn’t even a Tech fan and I knew.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I loved Mahomes & Watson too. I was stumping for them. Look at us agreeing!



I don't think Keim had a reasonable shot of getting either, and don't blame him for it. But I blame him for plenty else, and I know we've had this argument on this board a ton, haha. Look at us disagreeing.

He did. The Chiefs especially traded from the back of the first round. I cant remember who had the original pick but only trading back to 10 would've been much better from them. Make the calls if you want a guy, especially if it's a QB. It's called being proactive. I saw Mahomes being good from a mile awhile. You remember that malarkey people used to say about Air Raid QBs not being able to be successful in the NFL

 

[Solar7]

He did. The Chiefs especially traded from the back of the first round. I cant remember who had the original pick but only trading back to 10 would've been much better from them. Make the calls if you want a guy, especially if it's a QB. It's called being proactive. I saw Mahomes being good from a mile awhile. You remember that malarkey people used to say about Air Raid QBs not being able to be successful in the NFL

For the millionth time, no one wants to drop back three picks to take a guy like Malik Hooker or Haason Reddick when you can get a first. But I'm done, I swear I'm done. Google "Solar7 Mahomes Watson 1st round pick" and you'll get the title of my autobiography.

 

[Krangodnzr]

For the millionth time, no one wants to drop back three picks to take a guy like Malik Hooker or Haason Reddick when you can get a first. But I'm done, I swear I'm done. Google "Solar7 Mahomes Watson 1st round pick" and you'll get the title of my autobiography.

Right. A QB is worth a future first. I'm glad you finally see that it wouldnt have been that hard to best KCs offer.

 

[BritCard]

It isn't a science but it takes self awareness and there are ways to limit risk. How was the player successful in college and can they replicate that at the professional level. That is the question that you should ask regarding every player.

It is like the Murray pick. Taking Murray was taking a max-risk, outlier player. Size and experience alone should have scared the Cardinals off. If it works out no one will acknowledge how risky that pick was.

Reddick...was a risky pick because we took an older player who played in a poor conference whose production came mostly when he was just more mature than the people he was playing against. His size was below the standard for 3-4 OLBs which is as close to the position he played in college as possible to get. We moved him into a position where instincts and experience are pre-requisites.

Again, John Ross. Draft a vertical only player who is small from a conference with a lack of NFL quality DBs and put him in an offense with a QB who does not throw the ball vertically.

I can go on and on. The signs are there. Are there outliers? Sure. But most guys who fail do so because how they are successful in college does not match how they can be successful in the NFL or it is not how the team wants to use them.

Great post. That's exactly why I was against the Murray pick in advance. The odds of any 1 year college starter being good are statistically bad. Add in his size and then add in the #1 pick and it was a massively risky move. Then add in you are binning the #10 pick QB from the year before on top of all that. For me it was the riskiest draft pick of all time. I don't think people realize how much the odds were stacked against it.

Three things happen every year in the draft.

Players who played in poor divisions who have great stats get over drafted.
Players who have great physical attributes who very few heard of prior to draft season go way too high.
Players who were studs in college and were always touted as high picks start getting doubted and nit picked. Then drop 10-20 spots due to overthinking.

Andrew Thomas falls into that last one. People now saying he isn't great in pass pro and has heavy feet. In his last 3 seasons at left tackle he has allowed 37 pressures total in pass pro in the SEC. People just start to overthink things sometimes.

 

[Solar7]

Right. A QB is worth a future first. I'm glad you finally see that it wouldnt have been that hard to best KCs offer.

Not to move up one-three picks! If you do that and it's Mitch Trubisky... you'll lose your job.

 

[TheCardFan]

Not to move up one-three picks! If you do that and it's Mitch Trubisky... you'll lose your job.

It's definitely worth it if you pick the right guy.

If we would have traded up and taken Mahomes or Watson...the lost #1 draft pick the following year was Rosen. We don't have him anyway.

We then take Bosa vs Murray last year and that seems like a much better situation (Mahomes/Watson plus Bosa) than Murray and Reddick. Two of the three (Mahomes/Bosa) are in the Super Bowl right now.

 

[Solar7]

It's definitely worth it if you pick the right guy.

If we would have traded up and taken Mahomes or Watson...the lost #1 draft pick the following year was Rosen. We don't have him anyway.

We then take Bosa vs Murray last year and that seems like a much better situation (Mahomes/Watson plus Bosa) than Murray and Reddick. Two of the three (Mahomes/Bosa) are in the Super Bowl right now.

People keep saying "if it's the right guy." Yes, that's the point of the draft. In previous years the team liked both Bortles and Paxton Lynch. It's hindsight.

It's like saying "I wish we had taken Tom Brady instead of Thomas Jones in the 2000 NFL Draft." We could have, and it would have been an amazing decision, but at the time, it would have been a really dumb football move. Just because in hindsight it would have worked out doesn't mean it was a good idea.

 

[TheCardFan]

People keep saying "if it's the right guy." Yes, that's the point of the draft. In previous years the team liked both Bortles and Paxton Lynch. It's hindsight.

It's like saying "I wish we had taken Tom Brady instead of Thomas Jones in the 2000 NFL Draft." We could have, and it would have been an amazing decision, but at the time, it would have been a really dumb football move. Just because in hindsight it would have worked out doesn't mean it was a good idea.

I believe your argument is you shouldn't trade up 1-3 picks and give a future #1 pick for a potential QBOF.

That is incorrect IMO.

That move makes sense if you draft the right guy. If you draft the wrong guy...you just screwed your franchise for a bit.

Not to move up one-three picks! If you do that and it's Mitch Trubisky... you'll lose your job.

If you do it and draft Trubisky you made a very bad choice.
If you do it and draft Mahomes, you are in the Super Bowl.

 

[Solar7]

I believe your argument is you shouldn't trade up 1-3 picks and give a future #1 pick for a potential QBOF.

That is incorrect IMO.

That move makes sense if you draft the right guy. If you draft the wrong guy...you just screwed your franchise for a bit.



If you do it and draft Trubisky you made a very bad choice.
If you do it and draft Mahomes, you are in the Super Bowl.

Yes, that is my argument. You should not trade that much to move up one to three spots for any player, unless they are a flawless prospect, like Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck and you're at the top of the draft.

Too many players do not hit. You can't trade up every year and massively overpay. It just doesn't work that way, and a GM will quickly lose their job. Even flawless prospects flame out. We can't even guarantee that Mahomes would be anything here. Do Wilks and McCoy just absolutely shatter the guy in year two instead of sitting on the bench for a year under Andy Reid?

I get this from a fan perspective. It's so easy to look back and be mad that we were so close to a superstar. But you have to make savvy football decisions in the moment when you're employed to do this kind of thing.

 

[Solar7]

Also I love that I promised myself I wouldn't get into this again, and the first thing I do when something wakes me up at 4 AM is come here to argue about it some more, haha. Sorry about that.

Looks like I'll be asking to work from home today.

 

[DVontel]

Solar just doesn’t like the thought of trading up. That’s all it is.

 

[Solar7]

Solar just doesn’t like the thought of trading up. That’s all it is.

I'm all for trading up. I thought the Rosen deal was a great move. I just don't like judging moves based on hindsight when they really weren't an option anyways.

For example, my buddy dumped every last penny of his savings into Bitcoin a while back. Cashed out at a decent time, quit his job, might not ever have to work again. Am I angry about this because I considered investing in Bitcoin around the same time? No, because there's no way in hell I was going to pull out tens of thousands of dollars and put it into a risk like that anyways.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Not to move up one-three picks! If you do that and it's Mitch Trubisky... you'll lose your job.

Or you miss out on Deshaun Watson.

 

[Southpaw]

Solar just doesn’t like the thought of trading up. That’s all it is.

For every bust trade up, I would like to believe there is at least one jackpot trade up.

 

[MadCardDisease]

It isn't a science but it takes self awareness and there are ways to limit risk. How was the player successful in college and can they replicate that at the professional level. That is the question that you should ask regarding every player.

It is like the Murray pick. Taking Murray was taking a max-risk, outlier player. Size and experience alone should have scared the Cardinals off. If it works out no one will acknowledge how risky that pick was.

Reddick...was a risky pick because we took an older player who played in a poor conference whose production came mostly when he was just more mature than the people he was playing against. His size was below the standard for 3-4 OLBs which is as close to the position he played in college as possible to get. We moved him into a position where instincts and experience are pre-requisites.

Again, John Ross. Draft a vertical only player who is small from a conference with a lack of NFL quality DBs and put him in an offense with a QB who does not throw the ball vertically.

I can go on and on. The signs are there. Are there outliers? Sure. But most guys who fail do so because how they are successful in college does not match how they can be successful in the NFL or it is not how the team wants to use them.

What I'm saying is that every player is a risk. There are no sure things.

Look back at the 2013 draft that was "stacked" with OL. Luke Joeckel was the "Sure Thing" pick of the draft. He was the "Safest Pick of the Draft". Yet his NFL career never took flight and he ended up being a major bust.

Chance Warmack and Jonathon Cooper were can't miss prospects at OG. Both never became the future "Larry Allen" that almost every "expert" was projecting. In fact they both are currently out of the League and didn't play a down last season.

 

[GatorAZ]

Mahomes was risky at the time but there’s no excuse for Trubisky going 10 spots before Watson. I remember Watson throwing a lot of picks late in his last season and caused some to have accuracy concerns with him. He had all the tools and showed up in big games. His leadership was also off the charts.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Don’t forget Reuben Foster, who many on this board touted as the next Ray Lewis.

I wanted Foster.

I do remember my scout friend saying he was a knucklehead though.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I'm all for trading up. I thought the Rosen deal was a great move. I just don't like judging moves based on hindsight when they really weren't an option anyways.

For example, my buddy dumped every last penny of his savings into Bitcoin a while back. Cashed out at a decent time, quit his job, might not ever have to work again. Am I angry about this because I considered investing in Bitcoin around the same time? No, because there's no way in hell I was going to pull out tens of thousands of dollars and put it into a risk like that anyways.

You keep saying it wasnt an option with certainty.

The Chiefs traded up with two late 1sts and a late 3rd.

You don't know it wasnt an option. Maybe it was. All any of us know is that BRUCE ARIANS said that they wanted Deshaun Watson and we know that the Texans traded in front of them.

If what Arians is saying is true, and we have no reason not to believe it because BASK had say on multiple occasions that they wanted a young guy to groom, they were outflanked.

Many of us at the time saw the looming disaster of Carson Palmer's retirement. His play was already declining, but he could play enough to let a young guy sit and not have to play right away. 2017 was the perfect year to draft a QBOF and to trade a future pick to get him.

Imagine if the Cardinals had offered 2017 1st and 2018 1st to move up to get Watson. Well...they wasted 2018 1st anyway, so the Cardinals now would have a 4th year Watson and wouldnt have been strapped with Bradford's dead money.

 

[slanidrac16]

Great post. That's exactly why I was against the Murray pick in advance. The odds of any 1 year college starter being good are statistically bad. Add in his size and then add in the #1 pick and it was a massively risky move. Then add in you are binning the #10 pick QB from the year before on top of all that. For me it was the riskiest draft pick of all time. I don't think people realize how much the odds were stacked against it.

Three things happen every year in the draft.

Players who played in poor divisions who have great stats get over drafted.
Players who have great physical attributes who very few heard of prior to draft season go way too high.
Players who were studs in college and were always touted as high picks start getting doubted and nit picked. Then drop 10-20 spots due to overthinking.

Andrew Thomas falls into that last one. People now saying he isn't great in pass pro and has heavy feet. In his last 3 seasons at left tackle he has allowed 37 pressures total in pass pro in the SEC. People just start to overthink things sometimes.

If we are going to draft a OT I want one that can play LT but can start on the right.