Kyler Murray: An Analytical Look

Chris_Sanders

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Note this is an Eagles writer

https://theathletic.com/1391305/201...weve-seen-from-kyler-murray-through-11-games/

By Sheil Kapadia 3h ago
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With 6:35 left in Sunday’s Cardinals-49ers game, Kyler Murray kept the ball on a zone read, exploded past defenders, raced toward the left pylon and scored on a 22-yard touchdown.

The run gave the Cardinals a 26-23 lead, but they couldn’t hang on and lost their fourth straight game. Despite a 3-7-1 record, there’s plenty of reason for optimism — specifically as it pertains to Murray and the offense.

Through 11 games, Murray is completing 64.6% of his passes (15th) and averaging 6.9 YPA (23rd). He’s thrown 14 touchdowns with five interceptions and has also run for 418 yards and three scores. The Cardinals are not going to make the playoffs, but they’ll continue to try to build a strong foundation on offense with an eye toward 2020.

Keeping that in mind, below is an analytical breakdown of what we’ve seen from Murray so far in what’s been an impressive rookie season. Stats are courtesy of Sportradar unless otherwise indicated.

Accuracy
Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It measures the probability of a completion on every pass, based on factors like where the receiver is on the field, his separation, how close the pass rush is to the quarterback, etc. Murray’s expected completion percentage is 66.1%. His actual completion percentage is 64.6%. The difference of -1.5% ranks 24th out of 38 quarterbacks.

There’s nothing alarming about that number. He’s in the middle of the pack. On film, accuracy has not been an issue. And it’s important to remember throughout this exercise that Murray is a 22-year-old rookie.

For the sake of context, I looked at rookie quarterbacks over the previous 10 years who attempted at least 100 passes. There were 43 of them, and the average completion percentage was 58.4%. If Murray maintains his current rate (64.6%), that will rank fourth best for a rookie QB over the last 10 seasons.

Bottom line: Accuracy is a strength and should only improve.

Decision-making
There are different ways to evaluate decision-making, but for our purposes, let’s look at negative plays. Murray has been intercepted on just 1.3% of his pass attempts this season. That’s ninth best among starting quarterbacks. And if we go back to the 43 rookies since 2009, the average interception rate is 3.1%. If Murray maintained his current rate, it would rank third best among that group.

Murray’s avoidance of fumbles has been even more impressive. He’s fumbled just two times. And keep in mind that Muray has had the ball in his hands for 446 passing plays — second most in the NFL. His 67 rushing attempts are third among quarterbacks. Among starters, only Drew Brees has fumbled less (zero), but he’s played in just five games. Fellow rookie quarterbacks this season have had big issues with fumbles. Daniel Jones has 13, and Gardner Minshew has 11.

One area to keep an eye on is sack percentage. Murray’s been sacked on 8.2% of his passing plays, which ranks 26th. But again, context is important. The average sack rate for rookies over the past 10 years is 7.2%. There is a process of learning where the pressure is coming from, whether it’s smarter to throw the ball away than extend a play, etc. And some quarterbacks with Murray’s athleticism can be successful even when they take a lot of sacks. Deshaun Watson has a worse sack rate (8.6%) than Murray this year. Russell Wilson (7.6%) is just below Murray.

There’s a tradeoff with quarterbacks who can keep plays alive. You get the spectacular plays that opponents can’t defend. And you get a bump in sacks. It’s a matter of balancing the two.

Where is Murray throwing the ball (distance)?
Kliff Kingsbury has baked in a lot of run-pass options (RPOs) and other quick throws into the offense. Murray has attempted 110 passes where the target is at or behind the line of scrimmage — tied for most in the NFL. These are high-percentage attempts (he’s completing 71.8% of them) and are really an extension of the run game. The thought is to get the ball out quickly into the hands of playmakers and take easy gains.

But one of the most aesthetically pleasing aspects of Murray’s game so far is his deep ball. He’s completed 45.8% of his downfield throws (20 or more yards from the line of scrimmage), which is the third-best mark among starters. Murray is averaging 17.1 YPA when he throws downfield, which is second only to Wilson.

Where is Murray throwing the ball (targets)?
One of the fun parts about the Cardinals this season is that Murray has rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald. When targeting Fitzgerald, Murray is completing 72.4% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA. Fitzgerald is 36 and on a one-year deal, but he looks like someone who can still help Murray and this offense at least in 2020.

Christian Kirk has been the Cardinals’ second-most-targeted receiver. He had a huge game a couple of weeks ago with 10 catches for 138 yards against the Buccaneers and has 508 receiving yards on the season. Players such as David Johnson, KeeSean Johnson and Andy Isabella also have been involved in the passing game.

The Cardinals use 10 personnel (one RB, zero TEs, four WRs) more than any other team in the NFL. Murray has had 199 pass plays out of 10 personnel. The rest of the league combined has 203. But the Cardinals have struggled out of that grouping. Murray’s been sacked 8.9% of the time and averaged just 5.1 net yards per pass play out of 10 personnel.

The league’s most common grouping — 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) — has actually worked better for Arizona. Murray is averaging 7.7 YPA and 6.7 net yards per pass play out of 11 personnel.

Sixty of Murray’s pass plays have come out of 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs, two WRs). There’s no other grouping that the Cardinals have passed out of more than 10 times.

Overall
The Cardinals have used tempo as a tool. According to Football Outsiders, no team has played faster (meaning time in between snaps) than Arizona. And Murray’s been an effective runner. Only Lamar Jackson (718) has more rushing yards than Murray (418) among quarterbacks. His 22 rushing first downs rank third among quarterbacks.

Arizona has had some game management issues, but that probably falls on Kingsbury more than Murray.

Through 11 games, the Cardinals have to feel good about their decision to move on from Josh Rosen and go all in on Murray. As a passer, he’s made good decisions, been accurate and shown great touch on downfield throws. He’s avoided negative plays at a high rate and made plays with his legs.

It’s a small sample, and the Cardinals have things to figure out personnel-wise on offense in the offseason. They also need to be much better on defense. But the start of Murray’s career has been everything for which Arizona could have hoped.

(Photo: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)

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Sheil Kapadia writes about the NFL for The Athletic. He previously covered the Philadelphia Eagles for The Athletic and for Philadelphia Magazine's Birds 24/7 site. Sheil also covered the Seattle Seahawks for ESPN. Follow Sheil on Twitter @SheilKapadia.
 

daves

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The Cardinals use 10 personnel (one RB, zero TEs, four WRs) more than any other team in the NFL. Murray has had 199 pass plays out of 10 personnel. The rest of the league combined has 203. But the Cardinals have struggled out of that grouping. Murray’s been sacked 8.9% of the time and averaged just 5.1 net yards per pass play out of 10 personnel.

The league’s most common grouping — 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) — has actually worked better for Arizona. Murray is averaging 7.7 YPA and 6.7 net yards per pass play out of 11 personnel.
Interesting!

This seems to be something that Kingsbury has already adjusted somewhat, using a TE much more often than at the beginning of the season. But given this disparity in success, perhaps Kingsbury should stay in 11 personnel even more.

...dave
 

Jim Otis

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I don't need an analytical report to tell me this Young Man Is Gifted , Dan Marino Arm , Micheal Vick Feet , a rare combination . K1 can be Johnny U or Archie Manning ,it is up to Mike Bidwill , put some help ( O- Line around him ) 0r fold the tent and sell the team
 

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Interesting!

This seems to be something that Kingsbury has already adjusted somewhat, using a TE much more often than at the beginning of the season. But given this disparity in success, perhaps Kingsbury should stay in 11 personnel even more.

...dave
I think once we improve the Oline we'll see more 11 personnel next season. Hopefully the rookie wrs improve as well.
 

football karma

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I think once we improve the Oline we'll see more 11 personnel next season.

i think you mean 10

i do think the combo of better o-line play + WRs that can beat coverage quickly + a QB even better at recognition means more 10 personnel

i like the idea of forcing a D into taking two starting LBs off the field and replacing them with depth DBs

i also think that having a true flex TE that can at least be *not terrible* at blocking in line would also put stress on opposing Ds
 

juza76

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i think you mean 10

i do think the combo of better o-line play + WRs that can beat coverage quickly + a QB even better at recognition means more 10 personnel

i like the idea of forcing a D into taking two starting LBs off the field and replacing them with depth DBs

i also think that having a true flex TE that can at least be *not terrible* at blocking in line would also put stress on opposing Ds
agree
I think Eric ebron is the tigh end we need to increase our red zone success
 

kerouac9

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The really exciting thing is that Murray has a huge amount of improvement to go as a passer. He overperforms in QBR because of his rushing and (probably) clutch situation performance, as well as opponent adjustments.

But as a passer, he's 18th in DYAR and 20th in DOVA (his value over average is actually negative). He will hopefully become more aggressive as a passer in his second year, although I don't know if that's something you can coach into someone.
 
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Chris_Sanders

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This is something I want the people concerned about him taking sacks to see

One area to keep an eye on is sack percentage. Murray’s been sacked on 8.2% of his passing plays, which ranks 26th. But again, context is important. The average sack rate for rookies over the past 10 years is 7.2%. There is a process of learning where the pressure is coming from, whether it’s smarter to throw the ball away than extend a play, etc. And some quarterbacks with Murray’s athleticism can be successful even when they take a lot of sacks. Deshaun Watson has a worse sack rate (8.6%) than Murray this year. Russell Wilson (7.6%) is just below Murray

It's exactly what I said in the thread. You have to accept that there will be some "Sit sacks" just by nature of his ability. He is right in line with top QBs who are able to do the same thing
 

Cheesebeef

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The really exciting thing is that Murray has a huge amount of improvement to go as a passer. He overperforms in QBR because of his rushing and (probably) clutch situation performance, as well as opponent adjustments.

But as a passer, he's 18th in DYAR and 20th in DOVA (his value over average is actually negative). He will hopefully become more aggressive as a passer in his second year, although I don't know if that's something you can coach into someone.

+1
 

SoonerLou

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i think you mean 10

i do think the combo of better o-line play + WRs that can beat coverage quickly + a QB even better at recognition means more 10 personnel

i like the idea of forcing a D into taking two starting LBs off the field and replacing them with depth DBs

i also think that having a true flex TE that can at least be *not terrible* at blocking in line would also put stress on opposing Ds
My mistake. Correct.
 

SoonerLou

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The really exciting thing is that Murray has a huge amount of improvement to go as a passer. He overperforms in QBR because of his rushing and (probably) clutch situation performance, as well as opponent adjustments.

But as a passer, he's 18th in DYAR and 20th in DOVA (his value over average is actually negative). He will hopefully become more aggressive as a passer in his second year, although I don't know if that's something you can coach into someone.
Thing is @Chris_Sanders says that Kyler wants to be more aggressive but he's being coached to be less aggresive because of talent on the outside/inside.

Seeing how effective he is throwing deep I can understand why he wants to throw down field more. Even though we might not have the horses for it.
xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media
 

CardsSunsDbacks

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This is something I want the people concerned about him taking sacks to see



It's exactly what I said in the thread. You have to accept that there will be some "Sit sacks" just by nature of his ability. He is right in line with top QBs who are able to do the same thing
He has also improved as the season has progressed. Of his 35 sacks only 15 have happened in the last 7 games.
 

slanidrac16

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He has also improved as the season has progressed. Of his 35 sacks only 15 have happened in the last 7 games.
This is not noted enough. Kyler and the o-line have been playing better. I think it’s a combination of Kyler learning and the o-line getting use to blocking for a mobile qb.
 

Morty

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Note this is an Eagles writer

https://theathletic.com/1391305/201...weve-seen-from-kyler-murray-through-11-games/

By Sheil Kapadia 3h ago
You must be registered for see images attach
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With 6:35 left in Sunday’s Cardinals-49ers game, Kyler Murray kept the ball on a zone read, exploded past defenders, raced toward the left pylon and scored on a 22-yard touchdown.

The run gave the Cardinals a 26-23 lead, but they couldn’t hang on and lost their fourth straight game. Despite a 3-7-1 record, there’s plenty of reason for optimism — specifically as it pertains to Murray and the offense.

Through 11 games, Murray is completing 64.6% of his passes (15th) and averaging 6.9 YPA (23rd). He’s thrown 14 touchdowns with five interceptions and has also run for 418 yards and three scores. The Cardinals are not going to make the playoffs, but they’ll continue to try to build a strong foundation on offense with an eye toward 2020.

Keeping that in mind, below is an analytical breakdown of what we’ve seen from Murray so far in what’s been an impressive rookie season. Stats are courtesy of Sportradar unless otherwise indicated.

Accuracy
Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It measures the probability of a completion on every pass, based on factors like where the receiver is on the field, his separation, how close the pass rush is to the quarterback, etc. Murray’s expected completion percentage is 66.1%. His actual completion percentage is 64.6%. The difference of -1.5% ranks 24th out of 38 quarterbacks.

There’s nothing alarming about that number. He’s in the middle of the pack. On film, accuracy has not been an issue. And it’s important to remember throughout this exercise that Murray is a 22-year-old rookie.

For the sake of context, I looked at rookie quarterbacks over the previous 10 years who attempted at least 100 passes. There were 43 of them, and the average completion percentage was 58.4%. If Murray maintains his current rate (64.6%), that will rank fourth best for a rookie QB over the last 10 seasons.

Bottom line: Accuracy is a strength and should only improve.

Decision-making
There are different ways to evaluate decision-making, but for our purposes, let’s look at negative plays. Murray has been intercepted on just 1.3% of his pass attempts this season. That’s ninth best among starting quarterbacks. And if we go back to the 43 rookies since 2009, the average interception rate is 3.1%. If Murray maintained his current rate, it would rank third best among that group.

Murray’s avoidance of fumbles has been even more impressive. He’s fumbled just two times. And keep in mind that Muray has had the ball in his hands for 446 passing plays — second most in the NFL. His 67 rushing attempts are third among quarterbacks. Among starters, only Drew Brees has fumbled less (zero), but he’s played in just five games. Fellow rookie quarterbacks this season have had big issues with fumbles. Daniel Jones has 13, and Gardner Minshew has 11.

One area to keep an eye on is sack percentage. Murray’s been sacked on 8.2% of his passing plays, which ranks 26th. But again, context is important. The average sack rate for rookies over the past 10 years is 7.2%. There is a process of learning where the pressure is coming from, whether it’s smarter to throw the ball away than extend a play, etc. And some quarterbacks with Murray’s athleticism can be successful even when they take a lot of sacks. Deshaun Watson has a worse sack rate (8.6%) than Murray this year. Russell Wilson (7.6%) is just below Murray.

There’s a tradeoff with quarterbacks who can keep plays alive. You get the spectacular plays that opponents can’t defend. And you get a bump in sacks. It’s a matter of balancing the two.

Where is Murray throwing the ball (distance)?
Kliff Kingsbury has baked in a lot of run-pass options (RPOs) and other quick throws into the offense. Murray has attempted 110 passes where the target is at or behind the line of scrimmage — tied for most in the NFL. These are high-percentage attempts (he’s completing 71.8% of them) and are really an extension of the run game. The thought is to get the ball out quickly into the hands of playmakers and take easy gains.

But one of the most aesthetically pleasing aspects of Murray’s game so far is his deep ball. He’s completed 45.8% of his downfield throws (20 or more yards from the line of scrimmage), which is the third-best mark among starters. Murray is averaging 17.1 YPA when he throws downfield, which is second only to Wilson.

Where is Murray throwing the ball (targets)?
One of the fun parts about the Cardinals this season is that Murray has rejuvenated Larry Fitzgerald. When targeting Fitzgerald, Murray is completing 72.4% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA. Fitzgerald is 36 and on a one-year deal, but he looks like someone who can still help Murray and this offense at least in 2020.

Christian Kirk has been the Cardinals’ second-most-targeted receiver. He had a huge game a couple of weeks ago with 10 catches for 138 yards against the Buccaneers and has 508 receiving yards on the season. Players such as David Johnson, KeeSean Johnson and Andy Isabella also have been involved in the passing game.

The Cardinals use 10 personnel (one RB, zero TEs, four WRs) more than any other team in the NFL. Murray has had 199 pass plays out of 10 personnel. The rest of the league combined has 203. But the Cardinals have struggled out of that grouping. Murray’s been sacked 8.9% of the time and averaged just 5.1 net yards per pass play out of 10 personnel.

The league’s most common grouping — 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, three WRs) — has actually worked better for Arizona. Murray is averaging 7.7 YPA and 6.7 net yards per pass play out of 11 personnel.

Sixty of Murray’s pass plays have come out of 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs, two WRs). There’s no other grouping that the Cardinals have passed out of more than 10 times.

Overall
The Cardinals have used tempo as a tool. According to Football Outsiders, no team has played faster (meaning time in between snaps) than Arizona. And Murray’s been an effective runner. Only Lamar Jackson (718) has more rushing yards than Murray (418) among quarterbacks. His 22 rushing first downs rank third among quarterbacks.

Arizona has had some game management issues, but that probably falls on Kingsbury more than Murray.

Through 11 games, the Cardinals have to feel good about their decision to move on from Josh Rosen and go all in on Murray. As a passer, he’s made good decisions, been accurate and shown great touch on downfield throws. He’s avoided negative plays at a high rate and made plays with his legs.

It’s a small sample, and the Cardinals have things to figure out personnel-wise on offense in the offseason. They also need to be much better on defense. But the start of Murray’s career has been everything for which Arizona could have hoped.

(Photo: Lachlan Cunningham / Getty Images)

You must be registered for see images attach

Sheil Kapadia writes about the NFL for The Athletic. He previously covered the Philadelphia Eagles for The Athletic and for Philadelphia Magazine's Birds 24/7 site. Sheil also covered the Seattle Seahawks for ESPN. Follow Sheil on Twitter @SheilKapadia.
Thank You for posting!
He seems to have a quick release too. Some of his accuracy issues appear to be when he is rolling out and throwing before he gets hit.
 

Chopper0080

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Hakeem Butler will help with the downfield passing game next year. Even if he never becomes a nuanced WR, big and fast at WR finds production in the NFL.
 

SoonerLou

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Hakeem Butler will help with the downfield passing game next year. Even if he never becomes a nuanced WR, big and fast at WR finds production in the NFL.
Just hate we wasted a year of development.

Just being a redzone threat now could have won a couple more games for us.

No idea why Keim would punt on Hakeem for Crabtree.
 

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