my too early 2020 offseason thread

[football karma]

my free agent targets

criteria: guys who seem likely to hit unrestricted free agency, and, whose teams may not be able to keep them. I want guys with prime years ahead of them. Helps that each is from the west coast, so playing in AZ might be attractive.

1. Leonard Williams, 3/4 DE Jets. The interior difference maker needed. This is a big money kinda deal -- like $15mm/ year avg value

2. Corey Littleton, ILB, Rams. The fleet, coverage ILB that Keim has been desperate for since D Wash. I dont see the Rams being able to spend for him. Figure $7.5mm avg value. BTW: Reddick goes to 3/4 OLB

3. Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons. Falcons are in cap hell, and have way too money invested on offense. Hooper hits free agency. Maybe $8mm per

 

[Chopper0080]

Lots of big names to like, but here are some lesser names that would help fill out our roster...

Danny Shelton - NT
Markus Golden - OLB
Stephen Weatherly - OLB
Elandon Roberts - ILB
Justin Simmons - S

...Shelton gives you beef in the middle. Golden gives you a better version of Brooks Reed. Weatherly has an athletic profile similar to Chandler Jones. Roberts gives you a low cost, professional ILB so you don't have to depend on Reddick. Justin Simmons upgrades the backend of the defense with a proven player, brings a little more size, and enables you really evaluate Thompson, Thompson and Baker.

 

[DVontel]

What makes people think Leonard Williams is good?

 

[Son of RedRage]

3. Austin Hooper, TE, Falcons. Falcons are in cap hell, and have way too money invested on offense. Hooper hits free agency. Maybe $8mm per

Not a chance in hell he hits the market given how many targets he's gotten.

 

[Russ Smith]

What makes people think Leonard Williams is good?

High draft pick, still young. Per ESPN since he entered the league only 7 AFC players have more hits on the QB than Williams does. He's not a stud but he's a good 3-4 DE .

I only watched a bit of last night but he caused an INT, caused a couple of throwaways by Brady one of which eventually became a grounding call(with Brady like a big baby screaming "he was right there" to the ref when he clearly threw the ball away). He had a big stop in the backfield although it was in garbage time but it was a big loss.

He's not great but he's a good player, kind of guy i can see in the right scenario making that leap from good to really good.

 

[football karma]

Not a chance in hell he hits the market given how many targets he's gotten.

now with Sanu traded, you might be right

but the Falcons are in serious cap jail -- especially on the offense side of the ball. Something's got to give

 

[Harry]

That $79 mil looks big but they only have 33 players under contract. That’s quite a few holes to plug.

 

[Zeem_Freeze]

would love a move for a guy like Littleton. get us an average ILB so we can move Reddick to OLB....

Chan Jones - Hicks - Someone like Littleton - Reddick.......
that would be a top 10 linebacker core... possibly top 5

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

That $79 mil looks big but they only have 33 players under contract. That’s quite a few holes to plug.

It’s actually quite a bit still. About 7 of those 20 roster spots will be to the drafted players. A couple to undrafted rookies. Ultimately you are looking at filling about 10 roster spots with 60-65 mil. That is enough to nab a few marquee free agents and a handful of solid positional players as well.

 

[Chopper0080]

What makes people think Leonard Williams is good?

Probably the same things that make you think Budda Baker is good.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

 

[DVontel]

Probably the same things that make you think Budda Baker is good.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

Certainly has shown more than a 6th overall pick.

So again, what makes a guy that a majority of his team’s fanbase wants him out of town....good?

 

[football karma]

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-...-by-making-quick-decision-on-leonard-williams

balanced write up on Williams from a Jets beat writer

 

[overseascardfan]

If you’re going to pay money for a pass rusher then go after Clowney. He’d be the big name FA, maybe sign Shaq Thompson and fill out your roster with depth but need to have a 3 to 4 impact player pick draft in 2020.

 

[DVontel]

If you’re going to pay money for a pass rusher then go after Clowney. He’d be the big name FA, maybe sign Shaq Thompson and fill out your roster with depth but need to have a 3 to 4 impact player pick draft in 2020.

Clowney isn’t a pass rusher.

 

[Chopper0080]

Certainly has shown more than a 6th overall pick.

So again, what makes a guy that a majority of his team’s fanbase wants him out of town....good?

You say that, but I don't agree with it.

In 3 seasons Budda Baker has 27 games started out of 37, has 9 passes defensed, 0 Ints, 4 forced fumbles, 3 fumbles recovered, 11 tackles for loss, 5 QB hits and 3 sacks.

In 5 seasons Leonard Williams has 69 game started out of 70, has 4 passes defensed, 1 Int, 2 forced fumbles, 0 fumbles recovered, 32 tackles for loss, 90 QB hits, and 17 sacks.

Obviously they play different positions and were drafted in different rounds, but Leonard Williams has made significantly more impact plays than Budda Baker. To argue that Budda Baker has "shown more" is just not accurate.

Leonard Williams value is in the eye of the beholder. Most people's knock on him is that he does not make enough plays. Similarly, the knock on Budda is that he doesn't make enough plays. You argue that Budda does other things rather than make splash plays. I would argue that Leonard Williams does other things than make splash plays. That all being said, Williams makes more plays than Baker. Williams also is playing 75% of snaps this year which is impressive for a defense lineman.

 

[DVontel]

You say that, but I don't agree with it.

In 3 seasons Budda Baker has 27 games started out of 37, has 9 passes defensed, 0 Ints, 4 forced fumbles, 3 fumbles recovered, 11 tackles for loss, 5 QB hits and 3 sacks.

In 5 seasons Leonard Williams has 69 game started out of 70, has 4 passes defensed, 1 Int, 2 forced fumbles, 0 fumbles recovered, 32 tackles for loss, 90 QB hits, and 17 sacks.

Obviously they play different positions and were drafted in different rounds, but Leonard Williams has made significantly more impact plays than Budda Baker. To argue that Budda Baker has "shown more" is just not accurate.

Leonard Williams value is in the eye of the beholder. Most people's knock on him is that he does not make enough plays. Similarly, the knock on Budda is that he doesn't make enough plays. You argue that Budda does other things rather than make splash plays. I would argue that Leonard Williams does other things than make splash plays. That all being said, Williams makes more plays than Baker. Williams also is playing 75% of snaps this year which is impressive for a defense lineman.

?

These are not even good numbers, especially for a player that was drafted as high as he was. 17 sacks in 5 years. You kidding me?

I’m curious what “impact plays” has Leonard Williams even made.


I don’t give a damn what % of snaps he’s playing, considering he’s not doing crap for a large majority of it.

Leonard Williams underachieving should be a bigger red flag than Budda considering he was the 6th(!!!) overall pick.

Go look up Jets’ fans’ opinions on him on Reddit, forums, Twitter, etc. It’s pretty much the same thing & it’s not good.

He’s pretty much the Haason Reddick of Defensive Linemen.

 

[Dr. Jones]

?

These are not even good numbers, especially for a player that was drafted as high as he was. 17 sacks in 5 years. You kidding me?

I’m curious what “impact plays” has Leonard Williams even made.


I don’t give a damn what % of snaps he’s playing, considering he’s not doing crap for a large majority of it.

Leonard Williams underachieving should be a bigger red flag than Budda considering he was the 6th(!!!) overall pick.

Go look up Jets’ fans’ opinions on him on Reddit, forums, Twitter, etc. It’s pretty much the same thing & it’s not good.

He’s pretty much the Haason Reddick of Defensive Linemen.

Well.....

Football outsiders has his first two seasons (article is from 2017) as super impressive.

https://www.ganggreennation.com/201...nard-williams-is-on-a-hall-of-fame-trajectory

What do you think is Leonard Williams’ ceiling?

We have a stat for defenders we call defeats, which tallies any play that results in a loss of yardage, a turnover, or a third- or fourth-down stop. Among interior linemen (3-4 linemen and 4-3 defensive tackles), Williams ranked 13th in defeats as a rookie. Last year, he was third, finishing with one fewer defeat than either Ndamukong Suh or Aaron Donald. This on two defenses that both rank in the top ten against the run in our database, which goes back to 1989. So Williams' floor is "one of the best interior linemen in the NFL," and he's already there. His ceiling? It depends on how long he can go and how consistently he can maintain that production, but careers that start like Williams' have a tendency to end in Canton.

Maybe @kerouac9 can give us a more recent perspective.

 

[overseascardfan]

Clowney isn’t a pass rusher.

Averaged 9 sacks last 2 years. Not having a good year so that probably lowers price tag. Playing with Jones probably helps him as there is no other pass rusher in SEA to take focus off him.

 

[Russ Smith]

My take is if you think the 6th overall pick at DE needs lots of sacks then yes Williams is disappointing. If you think he plays all over their DL, and does his job and is there every game, then he's a pretty good player who was picked too high. If you're the Jets that may be a problem, if you're a team trading for him that doesn't have to give up the 6th pick in the draft to get him, it may not be a problem.

he's a better run defender than pass defender, add him to the current roster and the run defense gets better right away. add a pass rusher next year and the defense gets that much better.

You might have to overpay him but at least he's reliable he plays damn near every game and he is where he's supposed to be he doesn't freelance, miss assignments etc,

But yes you would like more sacks

 

[Chopper0080]

?

These are not even good numbers, especially for a player that was drafted as high as he was. 17 sacks in 5 years. You kidding me?

I’m curious what “impact plays” has Leonard Williams even made.


I don’t give a damn what % of snaps he’s playing, considering he’s not doing crap for a large majority of it.

Leonard Williams underachieving should be a bigger red flag than Budda considering he was the 6th(!!!) overall pick.

Go look up Jets’ fans’ opinions on him on Reddit, forums, Twitter, etc. It’s pretty much the same thing & it’s not good.

He’s pretty much the Haason Reddick of Defensive Linemen.

Or the Budda Baker of defensive linemen by that argument.

My desire to add Leonard Williams is not believing that he will be a 13 sack per year guy. I am also not arguing whether he has lived up to his draft status, but I would argue that he is worth adding to a defense that needs a DE.

TFL 32
QB Hits 90
Sacks 17

TFL 26
QB Hits 17
Sacks 8

TFL 49
QB Hits 63
Sacks 33.5

Blind test. First is Leonard Williams, 2nd is Corey Peters, and 3rd is Cameron Heyward. I think the sentiment that Leonard Williams is "not good" does not hold water. Arguing that he is like Chris Long who never lived up to his draft status but was a solid NFL player for many years is fair.

 

[DVontel]

Or the Budda Baker of defensive linemen by that argument.

My desire to add Leonard Williams is not believing that he will be a 13 sack per year guy. I am also not arguing whether he has lived up to his draft status, but I would argue that he is worth adding to a defense that needs a DE.

TFL 32
QB Hits 90
Sacks 17

TFL 26
QB Hits 17
Sacks 8

TFL 49
QB Hits 63
Sacks 33.5

Blind test. First is Leonard Williams, 2nd is Corey Peters, and 3rd is Cameron Heyward. I think the sentiment that Leonard Williams is "not good" does not hold water. Arguing that he is like Chris Long who never lived up to his draft status but was a solid NFL player for many years is fair.

Attacking Budda won’t make Leonard Williams any less of an average at best player.

My desire is to add a good player.

Leonard Williams is not a good player.

He’s not Chris Long, aka a solid player but didn’t live up to his hype.

He’s just an average player at best.

I mean just look at how low the bar is for this guy that you’re comparing him to a 3rd round DT.

I’m fairly more confident in adding another DE in the draft than overpaying for an underwhelming DE.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Attacking Budda won’t make Leonard Williams any less of an average at best player.

My desire is to add a good player.

Leonard Williams is not a good player.

He’s not Chris Long, aka a solid player but didn’t live up to his hype.

He’s just an average player at best.

I mean just look at how low the bar is for this guy that you’re comparing him to a 3rd round DT.

I’m fairly more confident in adding another DE in the draft than overpaying for an underwhelming DE.

I often agree with you, but the stats and deeper analysis prove you aren't correct.

Leonard Williams has not been great at finishing, that's what the stats show. The stats also show that he is one of the most disruptive DL in the NFL. He hits QBs consistently, which change plays. He is a really good run defender as well.

I'm a huge Corey Peters fan, but Leonard Williams would instantly be the best Cardinals DL since Calais Campbell.

 

[DVontel]

I often agree with you, but the stats and deeper analysis prove you aren't correct.

Leonard Williams has not been great at finishing, that's what the stats show. The stats also show that he is one of the most disruptive DL in the NFL. He hits QBs consistently, which change plays. He is a really good run defender as well.

I'm a huge Corey Peters fan, but Leonard Williams would instantly be the best Cardinals DL since Calais Campbell.

If he’s this solid player this board wants to perceive him as then why does a majority of his own team’s fanbase want him gone?

This is funny though. Guys criticize Budda for not making impact plays, yet, are banging the table for a top 6 overall pick DE that doesn’t either.

Being the best DL since Calais isn’t saying much at all considering who the DL has been since then.

 

[DVontel]

I wish Keim would be dumb enough to pay a lot of money for some damn Leonard Williams.

 

[football karma]

fwiw: my rationale on Leonard Williams

I think the defense needs somebody to provide inside push on the pass rush. Williams can provide that.

while it would be great to get someone who gives you 6-8 sacks a year from an inside slot -- those guys don't hit free agency very often. I think next to Chandler Jones, sack production will come.

as for the $ necessary -- IDK, but I think you will have to pay to get a young, full 5-6 years of contract length in his prime guy. Also FWIW: by all accounts, a good teammate and hard worker.