Suns chances to make the playoffs

Chris_Sanders

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https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/27388596/projected-w-l-records-standings-every-nba-team

How do the projections work?

Our RPM projections utilize the multiyear, predictive version of RPM as a starting point. They're adjusted for typical player aging and -- new this season -- then regressed toward the player's projected offensive rating and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, based solely on box score stats. (For players without RPM projections, including rookies, the SCHOENE ratings are used instead.)

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What to expect in 2020 NBA free agency


Games played are projected based on time missed over the previous three seasons. I then make a subjective guess at minutes distributions for each team. Multiplying those minutes by players' offensive and defensive ratings yields team ratings that translate into expected wins. I used those projections to simulate the season 1,000 times and record the average number of wins as well as how often each team made the playoffs.

Why are these projections so compact?

Amazingly, only three teams are projected for more than 50 wins this season. In part, this is a product of the conservative nature of projections. While we know that more than three teams will win 50-plus games, we don't know for sure beforehand which teams will do so.

That said, the parity the RPM-based model forecasts appears unique to this season. Using the exact same method with 2018-19 projections yielded six teams with projections of 50-plus wins and a seventh whose projection rounded up to 50.

What makes this season so wide open?

Besides the absence of a single dominant team with the Golden State Warriorslosing Kevin Durant, this season is also unique because of the level of roster turnover this summer. I project just 62% of minutes leaguewide to be played by returning players, as compared to 76% in 2018-19. That's important because of the tweak to the projections I made last season to treat players who change teams differently than those who remain with the same team.

Regressing projections toward the player's SCHOENE projections rather than league average improved out-of-sample projection and no longer penalizes stars quite so harshly for changing teams. Still, it's clear that even stars do pay an RPM price for changing teams.

Within the sample I used for testing (back through 2012-13), 13 players who posted an RPM of 5.0 or better changed teams. On average, their RPM declined from +6.0 to +3.3. By comparison, players with an RPM of 5.0 or better who stay with the same team see a much smaller drop-off from an average of +6.4 to +4.8. This effect is particularly relevant for the Brooklyn Nets, LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers, all of whom added players whose projections would rank among the NBA's top 15 if not for the adjustment.

Given that, it's no surprise the top three teams in the projections all had a relatively high degree of continuity this offseason and return three of last season's top five players in RPM.

With that noted, let's get to the projections, starting with the Western Conference.

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13. Phoenix Suns
Average wins:
38.0
Playoffs: 22%

Having won only 19 games last season, the Suns are forecast for the biggest improvement in the league this season. Squint hard and Phoenix had the makings of a competitive team last season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per 100 possessions in the 180 minutes Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and Kelly Oubre Jr. played together, according to NBA Advanced Stats. Add reliable veterans Ricky Rubio and Dario Saric to that group and the Suns could leap out of the West cellar.

Suns finish 2 games out of the playoffs just losing to Portland in these projections.
 

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https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/27388596/projected-w-l-records-standings-every-nba-team



Suns finish 2 games out of the playoffs just losing to Portland in these projections.

Portland never gets a fair shake in projections. If we finish within 2 games of them then we'll be a playoff team, which I don't see happening but I guess the 38 win projection is what might make more sense, which is what I would guess for best case scenario. Best case this year will be somewhere in that range, 38-42 wins.

The Blazers have been a surprise ever since Aldridge left though. They're counted out every offseason. I would think they'd slip sooner or later but Lillard has elevated his game to MVP like levels to keep them at the top of their division.
 

Proximo

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I do think the suns are going to win 30 - 38 games.

But, a ton is going to come down to how good the coaching is, which at this point I am just guessing at. Also Booker's ability to stay healthy is another huge factor.

I know this much, this team should be a lot more fun to watch with no awful players like Josh Jackson, and at times Crawford tanking the game.
 

BC867

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https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/27388596/projected-w-l-records-standings-every-nba-team

Suns finish 2 games out of the playoffs just losing to Portland in these projections.
I would think that a prediction to finish 2 games out of the
playoffs, at this time, is great news!

Especially considering that the schedule is not in our favor.

A lot better than where we've been for the past decade.

Every prediction has a +/-. In an 82-game season, luck
such as injuries will be a factor. And, except for freak
injuries, the Head Coach has a lot to do with it with
his rotations.

It is going to be so much fun to believe in the Suns!
 

JCSunsfan

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The Suns and Cardinals seem to be going different directions in philosophy.

Cards are wanting to be innovative, focus on key positions, taking big risks to be successful.

Suns are going conventional, traditional line-up, adding quality depth instead of flashy key positions.
 
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Mainstreet

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The Suns and Cardinals seem to be going different directions in philosophy.

Cards are wanting to be innovative, focus on key positions, taking big risks to be successful.

Suns are going conventional, traditional line-up, adding quality depth instead of flashy key positions.

I guess a comparison could be made between Kliff Kingsbury and Mike D'Antoni bringing innovative offensive styles to their teams.

The Suns have had their fill of chasing flashy.

Hopefully the Cardinals have found their playmaker in Murray and can concentrate on filling needs in the next draft much like the Suns are doing now.
 

Raindog

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Obviously, there are a lot of variables that can affect this, but I could see the Suns making that kind of big leap this season, if everything goes their way.
 

Yuma

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The Suns and Cardinals seem to be going different directions in philosophy.

Cards are wanting to be innovative, focus on key positions, taking big risks to be successful.

Suns are going conventional, traditional line-up, adding quality depth instead of flashy key positions.
Wilkes brought traditional to the Cards last season. Just saying.
 

95pro

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In my opinion ESPN gives some stereotypical projections for the Suns who they have finishing 14th in the Western Conference.

ESPN ranks all the teams by conference.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27426015/nba-preseason-predictions-our-experts-picks-2019-20


I've been taking ESPN with a grain of salt these days.

IMO Denver ranked way too high, NO a bit too high, we are too low.

I mean OKC led by a hobbled cp3 better than us?
NO, hasn't proven squat...Ball hasn't lived up to anything, ZION aside from close range has done nothing.
Twolves, cmon. Two underachievers who are pretty much set in their ways are leading that team.

Kings are interesting, this is the year to see if they can build on last year, they did make some roster changes-negative ones imo.
Dallas, wildcard is Kristaps.




It's the stupid comment like this...

"Bobby Marks, ESPN: It's interesting how much Milwaukee and Philly have benefited from Kawhi Leonard's move. And on the other side, the West has 14 teams (sorry, Phoenix) that can compete for a playoff spot."
 
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Raindog

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ESPN is stupid. The West isn't going to have five teams winning over 50 games. Standings in the West will look a lot more like the East standings they are projecting.

And the bottom eight in the West are going to be more closely bunched, too. It's going to be a matter of good fortune as to how those teams sort out.
 

Mainstreet

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I've been taking ESPN with a grain of salt these days.

IMO Denver ranked way too high, NO a bit too high, we are too low.

I mean OKC led by a hobbled cp3 better than us?
NO, hasn't proven squat...Ball hasn't lived up to anything, ZION aside from close range has done nothing.
Twolves, cmon. Two underachievers who are pretty much set in their ways are leading that team.

Kings are interesting, this is the year to see if they can build on last year, they did make some roster changes-negative ones imo.
Dallas, wildcard is Kristaps.




It's the stupid comment like this...

"Bobby Marks, ESPN: It's interesting how much Milwaukee and Philly have benefited from Kawhi Leonard's move. And on the other side, the West has 14 teams (sorry, Phoenix) that can compete for a playoff spot."


I disagree with ESPN about some of their choices.

IMO, they stereotyped the Suns and graded teams based upon past reputation and star factor.

The Suns didn't get very good off season grades by many in the media. Maybe the same applies here.
 

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I hope Ricky is finally willing and able to shut all of his doubters up this year. He's got a solid cast to work with and needs to prove he was worth his payday. If he can play up to his contract then we might have a shot at the playoffs this year.
 

Mainstreet

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@Hoop Head @Chaplin

I found this on Ricky Rubio at azcentral by Duane Rankin.

Here are a few comments by new assistant Steve Blake:

“Management made some great changes for our roster this year,” said Blake on Glenn Clark Radio last week. “Ricky Rubio is an ultimate point guard, pass-first guy that’s gonna create and make guys have fun when they’re on the court."

“And we have a couple guys who are going to require a double-team with Booker and Deandre Ayton," Blake continued. "So I think we’re surrounding those guys with players who can help us win now."

In regard to Saric.

"He's a great player," Blake said. "I think if you look back when he was playing in Philly, he did a really great job out there."

https://www.azcentral.com/story/spo...x-suns-says-assistant-steve-blake/2137244001/
 

devilalum

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Is it just me or do beards actually make players SEEM slower and less athletic--especially guards.

I’ve thought that too but obviously they don’t. Maybe it’s intentionally deceptive.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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@Hoop Head @Chaplin

I found this on Ricky Rubio at azcentral by Duane Rankin.

Here are a few comments by new assistant Steve Blake:





In regard to Saric.



https://www.azcentral.com/story/spo...x-suns-says-assistant-steve-blake/2137244001/

Steve Blake was a very good hire, I forgot about that. He probably could have been the starting PG for us last year and lead the team to a few more wins. I'm glad that he'll be here to help Lecque, Carter, and Jerome along, possibly Okobo too. I know that's quite a work load but they also have Rubio ahead of them and as an example of sorts.

I'm really excited for the season now. Seeing Rubio in the international games has helped alleviate some of my concerns I had with him. His stats weren't great this last season but I know I was a big proponent for acquiring him early on. That was in large part because of Igor but I think he'll fit great next to Booker and give Monty a steady veteran presence so he won't need to rely on Book to be Point Book.
 

JCSunsfan

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Steve Blake was a very good hire, I forgot about that. He probably could have been the starting PG for us last year and lead the team to a few more wins. I'm glad that he'll be here to help Lecque, Carter, and Jerome along, possibly Okobo too. I know that's quite a work load but they also have Rubio ahead of them and as an example of sorts.

I'm really excited for the season now. Seeing Rubio in the international games has helped alleviate some of my concerns I had with him. His stats weren't great this last season but I know I was a big proponent for acquiring him early on. That was in large part because of Igor but I think he'll fit great next to Booker and give Monty a steady veteran presence so he won't need to rely on Book to be Point Book.
Part of the criticism the Suns have taken nationally in signing Rubio is that Booker has been seen--at least recently--as very similar Donovan Mitchell. They are both seen as combo guards that need the ball in their hands to be effective. I think this is wrong thinking with regard to Booker. Booker is not a SG in a PG body like Mitchell. Book is a big SG who can be quite effective off the ball. At least that is my initial take on it. The proof will be in the actual playing.

We know that Book's weakness is defense. Rubio excels at D. Having a shooter to take some defensive pressure off of Book would be good. But also we needed a pass-first player. So, the ideal would be a Nash-type pg who plays good D. But those types of players are VERY rare. A true Nash-type with D would be a hall of famer. Brogdon is a mediocre version of an all-around pg that might have fit. But Rubio is a better floor leader than Brogdon and I am not sure which of the two is a better defender.

In the end, I think the Booker/Rubio combo can work if coaching allows it to.
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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I’m also excited about our overall size.

6’4 Rubio
6’6 Booker
6’8 Oubre
6’10 Saric
7’1 Auton

Has our starting 5 ever averaged taller at their respective positions like the way this one does?
 

Ouchie-Z-Clown

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Also it just dawned on me, booker is the only player from the 17-18 season left on the roster. That’s nuts.
 

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Steve Blake was a very good hire, I forgot about that. He probably could have been the starting PG for us last year and lead the team to a few more wins. I'm glad that he'll be here to help Lecque, Carter, and Jerome along, possibly Okobo too. I know that's quite a work load but they also have Rubio ahead of them and as an example of sorts.

I'm really excited for the season now. Seeing Rubio in the international games has helped alleviate some of my concerns I had with him. His stats weren't great this last season but I know I was a big proponent for acquiring him early on. That was in large part because of Igor but I think he'll fit great next to Booker and give Monty a steady veteran presence so he won't need to rely on Book to be Point Book.

Lecque would have been a steal with the 32nd pick if the Suns had kept it. :wink2:
 

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I’m also excited about our overall size.

6’4 Rubio
6’6 Booker
6’8 Oubre
6’10 Saric
7’1 Auton

Has our starting 5 ever averaged taller at their respective positions like the way this one does?

Not only taller, but bulk for their positions.

The closest the Suns ever came to being called a strong team was during the Barkley/Majerle era.
And Barkley was really a 6'4 1/2" Forward.

Other Suns rosters had a strong player here or there, but never as strong throughout the lineup.

They're not going to kick sand in our faces any more. I can't wait to witness it. A half century of
"finesse" stereotyping finally down the drain.
 
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