On Murray running

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,235
Reaction score
32,849
A few weeks ago I said I didn't particularly want Murray to run all that much and K9 said I think he'd expect no less than 600 yards.

ESPN did a fantasy thing where they forecast stats, for Murray they had 100 rushes, and Murray reportedly told them he thought 100 was quite low. Looking at 16 games it's only 6.25 rushes per game and Murray expected it to be more than that(he didn't give a number).

So looks like my comment was wrong, I am still hoping he's the same about it in the NFL he was in college where he was really smart about getting down or out of bounds to avoid the big hits.
 

Solar7

Go Suns
Joined
May 18, 2002
Posts
10,973
Reaction score
11,582
Location
Las Vegas, NV
Yeah, I mean, this is what we can't really predict. In a perfect world, Kyler's not running for his life, or being overused on plays designed to get him running. Lincoln Riley apparently used him as the primary runner in some of his RPO designed plays, which is definitely concerning in a league where linebackers now have comparable speed, or the offensive line is blown up before the play has a chance to develop.

I also hope he's good at being evasive, but the honest truth is that he's going to get hit, and get hit hard. That's what I hope he can hold up against. One thing we can say about Russell Wilson that I think we don't mention that much is that he's tough. The guy plays through ankle injuries and all kinds of things that should really put him down. It's kinda Favre-esque.
 

Dr. Jones

Has No Time For Love
Joined
Nov 2, 2004
Posts
24,797
Reaction score
13,532
6 to 10 times a game.

4 to 5 improvised.
4 to 5 structured run options.

That's my guess.

Mike Clay's projections seem very conservative IMO regarding yards per rushing attempt. But may be a bit aggressive on the passing yardage side.
 
OP
OP
Russ Smith

Russ Smith

The Original Whizzinator
Supporting Member
Joined
May 14, 2002
Posts
84,235
Reaction score
32,849
6 to 10 times a game.

4 to 5 improvised.
4 to 5 structured run options.

That's my guess.

Mike Clay's projections seem very conservative IMO regarding yards per rushing attempt. But may be a bit aggressive on the passing yardage side.


ESPN had I think 22 TD's and 14 picks over 3600 yards passing. Berry said after talking to Murray he thinks he may have undersold his fantasy value.

I don't think anybody knows yet, Murray said something about having to be more careful about running "in this league" so I think he's clearly smart enough to realize you can't just run freely you have to pick your spots or you absolutely will get hurt.

One of the things I look for in young mobile QB's is how quickly they learn to use the ball to protect themselves. Wilson infuriates me but he's the best outside of Rodgers in the league at doing it. He will flip the ball out of bounds to avoid getting hit, or pump fake to stop the defender take 1 more step and slide etc. Mahomes was actually pretty good at it last year too. Until you pass the LOS there's always the threat of throwing, hell I've seen Wilson pump fake 5 years PAST the LOS and get the defender to slow up.
 

Krangodnzr

Captain of Team Murray
Joined
Jul 21, 2002
Posts
34,280
Reaction score
30,229
Location
Orange County, CA
6 to 10 times a game.

4 to 5 improvised.
4 to 5 structured run options.

That's my guess.

Mike Clay's projections seem very conservative IMO regarding yards per rushing attempt. But may be a bit aggressive on the passing yardage side.

It's like what Vance Joseph said. Try playing man against Murray and he'll bust 60 yard runs on you.

I think Murray is going to average over 6 yards per carry.
 

Jetstream Green

Kool Aid with a touch of vodka
Joined
Feb 5, 2003
Posts
29,459
Reaction score
16,598
Location
San Antonio, Texas
Yeah, I mean, this is what we can't really predict. In a perfect world, Kyler's not running for his life, or being overused on plays designed to get him running. Lincoln Riley apparently used him as the primary runner in some of his RPO designed plays, which is definitely concerning in a league where linebackers now have comparable speed, or the offensive line is blown up before the play has a chance to develop.

I also hope he's good at being evasive, but the honest truth is that he's going to get hit, and get hit hard. That's what I hope he can hold up against. One thing we can say about Russell Wilson that I think we don't mention that much is that he's tough. The guy plays through ankle injuries and all kinds of things that should really put him down. It's kinda Favre-esque.

They have the angle, I will give you that, but what percentages of LBs have Murray's speed and which if any have his quickness. It's those hybrid safety/corners and pseudo LBs (that $ crap identification a few teams use) which are the threat but even then I would like to think Murray will slide with even more proficiency than he already did in college... yeah, you have those highlight reels which he did run for a score but those account for a small percentage to when he did slide or even more threw the ball and did not run
 

BleedRed

Registered
Joined
Jun 11, 2003
Posts
861
Reaction score
529
Location
EPT
Murray's chances of getting hit in the pocket (blindside pass rush or quick pressure up the middle) are much more likely then him getting hit in the open field. He knows how to use the side line and slide, plus he might even be the fastest player on the field most of the time even in the NFL. He's going to be a nightmare for anyone to get their hands on. And let's be honest QBs can barely get hit at all in the league these days. Gonna be fun to watch, and glad we won't be watching him do it to us like we've seen Russell Wilson do for some time now.
 

DVontel

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jan 28, 2015
Posts
12,358
Reaction score
21,041
Murray's chances of getting hit in the pocket (blindside pass rush or quick pressure up the middle) are much more likely then him getting hit in the open field. He knows how to use the side line and slide, plus he might even be the fastest player on the field most of the time even in the NFL. He's going to be a nightmare for anyone to get their hands on. And let's be honest QBs can barely get hit at all in the league these days. Gonna be fun to watch, and glad we won't be watching him do it to us like we've seen Russell Wilson do for some time now.
I know it’s going to be a pain for 6’2+ dudes, mainly DL, trying to tackle him in the open field.

That center of gravity, whew.
 

Cardsfaninlouky

ASFN Lifer
Joined
Jan 10, 2019
Posts
4,424
Reaction score
5,819
Location
Louisville
A few weeks ago I said I didn't particularly want Murray to run all that much and K9 said I think he'd expect no less than 600 yards.

ESPN did a fantasy thing where they forecast stats, for Murray they had 100 rushes, and Murray reportedly told them he thought 100 was quite low. Looking at 16 games it's only 6.25 rushes per game and Murray expected it to be more than that(he didn't give a number).

So looks like my comment was wrong, I am still hoping he's the same about it in the NFL he was in college where he was really smart about getting down or out of bounds to avoid the big hits.
Him running (not for his life lol) can be a good thing, gives defenses another element to worry about while leaving other options open. As long as he keeps sliding/going out of bounds, doesn't get hurt or take any cheap shots?
 

Cardiac

ASFN Icon
Joined
Jul 21, 2002
Posts
11,978
Reaction score
3,080
IMO Murray has already shown he avoids hits every chance he gets, and I like that ability and mind set. Vick, McNabb, Newton, Luck and Wentz to name a couple off the top of my head all lost too much time and in several cases shortened their careers because they didn't figure out when to avoid the hit. Luck seems to have learned this lesson and Wentz still might but the others are cautionary tales.
 

Cardsfaninlouky

ASFN Lifer
Joined
Jan 10, 2019
Posts
4,424
Reaction score
5,819
Location
Louisville
Yeah, I mean, this is what we can't really predict. In a perfect world, Kyler's not running for his life, or being overused on plays designed to get him running. Lincoln Riley apparently used him as the primary runner in some of his RPO designed plays, which is definitely concerning in a league where linebackers now have comparable speed, or the offensive line is blown up before the play has a chance to develop.

I also hope he's good at being evasive, but the honest truth is that he's going to get hit, and get hit hard. That's what I hope he can hold up against. One thing we can say about Russell Wilson that I think we don't mention that much is that he's tough. The guy plays through ankle injuries and all kinds of things that should really put him down. It's kinda Favre-esque.
Complimenting anyone on the "Shehawks" makes me wanna throw up lol. You are right though, he is tough. I can't call him a midget QB any longer cause we have one now, unless I say the other midget QB in the NFC West lol. KM is faster right now than RW was coming into the league, let's just hope he's as tough?
 

slanidrac16

ASFN Icon
Supporting Member
Joined
Jul 11, 2002
Posts
15,002
Reaction score
14,417
Location
Plainfield, Il.
I look at Murray’s ability to move the pocket and extend plays as the real plus. He will run if and only if the opportunity is there. He is going to frustrate many defensive players with his slides and cute little hop out of bounds.
 

Krangodnzr

Captain of Team Murray
Joined
Jul 21, 2002
Posts
34,280
Reaction score
30,229
Location
Orange County, CA
A few weeks ago I said I didn't particularly want Murray to run all that much and K9 said I think he'd expect no less than 600 yards.

ESPN did a fantasy thing where they forecast stats, for Murray they had 100 rushes, and Murray reportedly told them he thought 100 was quite low. Looking at 16 games it's only 6.25 rushes per game and Murray expected it to be more than that(he didn't give a number).

So looks like my comment was wrong, I am still hoping he's the same about it in the NFL he was in college where he was really smart about getting down or out of bounds to avoid the big hits.

This:

10. I am probably too low on Kyler Murray

I spoke of Kyler Murray earlier in the Hakeem Butler section, but wanted to focus solely on Murray here. Both Butler and Andy Isabella (another Cardinals draftee who was also at the rookie premiere) raved about Murray's accuracy in practice. But the thing I found most interesting was his reaction to his ESPN projection. Most players (with the exception of the aforementioned Renfrow, of course) took the over on their projection or just said, "Sounds good to me, I'm just trying to help the team win, blah, blah, blah."

But Murray was shocked and upset when I told him we were projecting a line that read 3,798 passing yards, 22 TDs, 14 INTs and 100 carries for 558 yards and three more touchdowns. He looked at me as if I read it wrong. "A 22-to-14 TD-interception rate?" he said shaking his head. Clearly, he does not think he will come close to that high a turnover rate.

The other part of his projection he thought was crazy was 100 rushing attempts. He thought he'd be way over that. I asked him if he expected a lot of designed runs. I said we knew he'd have a lot of scrambles on broken plays, but was he hoping for more designed run calls? He said no, "not with the guys in this league."

But even with that lack of desire for designed runs he thought, over a 16-game season, 100 rushing attempts was too low. I have Kyler as the No. 14 QB right now and I'm likely too low.

And this was fun:

1. Murray and Butler quickly developing chemistry

While I was interviewing Arizona Cardinalswide receiver Hakeem Butler, a funny thing happened. Kyler Murray came over and intentionally "ruined" his answer, interrupting Butler and giving him some good-natured, well, you know the word I'd use here if I could. Let's keep it family-friendly and say he gave him some "razzing." Butler wasn't fazed and gave it right back to the quarterback. It was a fun, light-hearted moment, but what struck me is how comfortable they seemed with each other.

I asked Butler about that interaction after Murray left and he just smiled and shrugged. "Well, we're roommates," as if to say, "Duh, Berry." He explained further that a lot of times they don't even talk ball, but just are getting to know each other and that, in a short period of time, they have grown close, a sentiment Kyler echoed to me in a later interview.

Butler relayed a moment that happened in practice when Murray threw a ball high. I later asked Murray about this moment, and here's the story, as I've pieced together from both sides. Murray told me he threw a ball and right away he knew he had thrown it too high, and was getting mad at himself when all of a sudden, Butler came down with it.

Butler told me Murray apologized to him that night for the "bad ball," but Butler shrugged him off. It's a play that not only can he make, he expects to make it. He told Murray he thought nothing was wrong on the ball ... he figured Murray was just putting it in a place to avoid the defender and let Butler "go up and make a play."

Murray told me later how excited he's been, as he's never had a WR the size of Butler (he's 6-foot-6, 225 pounds). From Butler's point of view, using his body, size and winning those 50-50 balls is an important aspect of his game, something he's been working on with Calvin Johnson.

Do you need me to pick up that name I just dropped? Butler has been working out with Megatron himself, learning how to use his big frame and speed in the most effective ways. Clearly, he has already caught Murray's attention.

I met a lot of teammates: college guys who now play on different NFL teams and current pro teammates. All of them said the right things, of course, but none of them was as effusive and seemed as genuinely happy about the other than Kyler Murray and Hakeem Butler.
 

Solar7

Go Suns
Joined
May 18, 2002
Posts
10,973
Reaction score
11,582
Location
Las Vegas, NV
@Krang, you have to remember, Matthew Berry is speaking from a Fantasy Football perspective. Guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Tyrod Taylor find themselves as top ten plays week-to-week because of their rushing ability, it's not whether they drive teams to win or are successful real football players.

Do you know for a 5 game stretch last season, Josh Allen was THE BEST QB in terms of standard scoring? He certainly wasn't even top 10 when it came to actual football that season though.
 

Krangodnzr

Captain of Team Murray
Joined
Jul 21, 2002
Posts
34,280
Reaction score
30,229
Location
Orange County, CA
@Krang, you have to remember, Matthew Berry is speaking from a Fantasy Football perspective. Guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Tyrod Taylor find themselves as top ten plays week-to-week because of their rushing ability, it's not whether they drive teams to win or are successful real football players.

Do you know for a 5 game stretch last season, Josh Allen was THE BEST QB in terms of standard scoring? He certainly wasn't even top 10 when it came to actual football that season though.

Yes. This is the ESPN segment @Russ Smith was talking about.
 

Harry

ASFN Consultant and Senior Writer
Joined
Jan 7, 2003
Posts
10,745
Reaction score
22,513
Location
Orlando, FL
I’m guessing Murray will be restrained by the play calling. If this offense works like it’s drawn up I think Murray will move the pocket but confine his runs to open outside lanes and the red zone.
 

BleedRed

Registered
Joined
Jun 11, 2003
Posts
861
Reaction score
529
Location
EPT
@Krang, you have to remember, Matthew Berry is speaking from a Fantasy Football perspective. Guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Tyrod Taylor find themselves as top ten plays week-to-week because of their rushing ability, it's not whether they drive teams to win or are successful real football players.

Do you know for a 5 game stretch last season, Josh Allen was THE BEST QB in terms of standard scoring? He certainly wasn't even top 10 when it came to actual football that season though.


So imagine how much better KM will be. He is an elite passer and runner. Lamar Jackson is an elite runner and a terrible passer. Josh Allen has elite arm strength, highly questionable accuracy, and is an above average runner. Tyrod Taylor is/was an average passer and above average runner. I know this sounds like I'm really drinking the koolaid, but the league has never seen a QB who was is elite passer and runner. Even Vick and Cunningham had elite arm strength but significant accuracy issues. Russell Wilson is the only true comparison and I'm not referring to the height. Although Wilson is not and never was on KMs level as far as scrambling goes. KM will change the game and the trajectory of our franchise very quickly. Mark my words. :koolaid::newcards:
 

Solar7

Go Suns
Joined
May 18, 2002
Posts
10,973
Reaction score
11,582
Location
Las Vegas, NV
So imagine how much better KM will be. He is an elite passer and runner. Lamar Jackson is an elite runner and a terrible passer. Josh Allen has elite arm strength, highly questionable accuracy, and is an above average runner. Tyrod Taylor is/was an average passer and above average runner. I know this sounds like I'm really drinking the koolaid, but the league has never seen a QB who was is elite passer and runner. Even Vick and Cunningham had elite arm strength but significant accuracy issues. Russell Wilson is the only true comparison and I'm not referring to the height. Although Wilson is not and never was on KMs level as far as scrambling goes. KM will change the game and the trajectory of our franchise very quickly. Mark my words. :koolaid::newcards:
Uhhhhh... Kyler might very well be a better season long QB option than those guys? Sure? Plus he's hopefully starting 16 games? But that has nothing to do with him succeeding in winning games for this franchise.

I don't think you really understood my point about Berry's analysis. If this weren't about fantasy football, a game where scoring is bent differently to make scoring among positions balanced out, you wouldn't see Berry mentioning Kyler Murray as a top 15 QB. Even I, with all of my disdain for Kyler, will take him in the late rounds as a low-floor, high upside backup due to the rushing.

I play in like 8 fantasy football leagues a year, and it is wildly different than the real sport.
 

BleedRed

Registered
Joined
Jun 11, 2003
Posts
861
Reaction score
529
Location
EPT
Uhhhhh... Kyler might very well be a better season long QB option than those guys? Sure? Plus he's hopefully starting 16 games? But that has nothing to do with him succeeding in winning games for this franchise.

I don't think you really understood my point about Berry's analysis. If this weren't about fantasy football, a game where scoring is bent differently to make scoring among positions balanced out, you wouldn't see Berry mentioning Kyler Murray as a top 15 QB. Even I, with all of my disdain for Kyler, will take him in the late rounds as a low-floor, high upside backup due to the rushing.

I play in like 8 fantasy football leagues a year, and it is wildly different than the real sport.

My comments were in regards to you mentioning the other 3 QBs in comparison to Murray. I was mearly starting there is no comparison in fantasy, but more so in overall talent.

BTW, good luck getting Murray as a "late round back up" in any of those 8 leagues you play in. I'm sure he'll be a top 10 "fantasy" QB in most the preseason rankings. I'd be more than happy to give you some advice on fantasy football, since I'm confident your teams don't normally place well based on that comment alone. ;)
 

Solar7

Go Suns
Joined
May 18, 2002
Posts
10,973
Reaction score
11,582
Location
Las Vegas, NV
My comments were in regards to you mentioning the other 3 QBs in comparison to Murray. I was mearly starting there is no comparison in fantasy, but more so in overall talent.

BTW, good luck getting Murray as a "late round back up" in any of those 8 leagues you play in. I'm sure he'll be a top 10 "fantasy" QB in most the preseason rankings. I'd be more than happy to give you some advice on fantasy football, since I'm confident your teams don't normally place well based on that comment alone. ;)
Well, it's still missing the point of my argument to Krang, I'm trying to show him that guys who had middling years are still top fantasy QBs, so not to use any of Matthew Berry's rankings as gospel. For example, Tom Brady is at 18 in fantasy rankings on ESPN. Does that mean Berry thinks Tom Brady is the 18th best QB in football? No.

But to the rest:

My like 40+ top 2 finishes say "ha" to that, sir.

Anyways, Kyler's not going anywhere before this top 10: http://www.espn.com/fantasy/footbal...tball-2019-updated-ppr-rankings-matthew-berry

And you well know that names like Tom Brady are going to get overdrafted by the person who doesn't understand the concept of rushing pushing up a player's floor, and just knows them better than Kyler who?

I'm in leagues where the QBs don't even start going until the 6th or 7th rounds outside of 1-2 guys, and most teams don't even carry a backup, because it's a waste of a roster spot. Hell, I normally don't.
 
Top