2019 NFL draft - 15 thoughts

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Gandhi

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In many of my threads I mention conviction when making decisions. Many posters have said how we missed on Wilson even though we liked him. Why? A lack of conviction and belief in your evaluation. I think Issabella is going to be awesome. If you really believe in a player you take him when you know you can get him. I would rather take a player 1 round too soon( based on other pundits rankings) than to wait 1 more round and lament over missing out on him.

Several things I agree with here, Slanidrac. First, I think you are spot on with how you need conviction in your picks. Keim has said multiple times that he thought about drafting Wilson but decided not to because he didn’t have the courage, and then two years ago it has been widely reported that they wanted to draft Mahomes. I don’t doubt that those incidents has taught Keim a lesson, and that it was an important part in them drafting Murray.

Two, I don’t have any problem reaching for a player either. To me, you get in trouble if you try to create a player because you need a specific position, or simply because you have fallen in love with a prospect, but adjusting your rankings when your pick approaches is not at all a mistake in my opinion. Where I disagree is that I won’t take a player a round earlier than I have him graded. I think that is where you are trying to invent a player that is not there, and I think that will end up biting you later on.

My final note is I thought we were going to be forced to basically ignore the defense this off season. Between free agency and the draft this defense is primed to be a top 10 defense once again.

I would really like a new edge rusher to at least complement Suggs, but other than that, I do agree if Vance Joseph is as good as we all hope.
 

Jetstream Green

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1 – I strongly disagree with people saying that you can’t evaluate a draft class this soon after the event. You obviously can’t predict how it will turn out, but you can certainly evaluate it based on your expectations and own rankings. Which is what I do, and what a lot of people do.

2 – I guessed Mr. Irrelevant! It was obviously pure luck since it is basically impossible, but still! With every Cardinals pick I start to make a mental list of possibilities and who I would like them to pick about three-five picks before. It is based on draft history, draft trends, scheme fits and so on. This year it materialized with Zach Allen and Caleb Wilson, and I kind of had a hunch that they would be interested in Andy Isabella (but not at all with a pick that high) and Joshua Miles.

3 – I want to congratulate all of you who wanted Hakeem Butler with the first pick in the fourth round – and I know it was a lot of you. I am happy for you. Personally I did not think he represented good value at that point, and I didn’t think he was a fit in K2’s offense. After hearing that K2 himself thinks that Butler is a fit, my view on that is obviously completely wrong and irrelevant, and I guess a fourth round pick for a height-weight-speed prospect is okay.

4 – I was really happy when they traded Rosen – both for the good of the team and for the good of Rosen. However, I can’t tell you how disappointed I was when the pick turned out to be Isabella. I mean, he might be a good fit, but in the 2nd round? You got to be kidding me! The pick instantly reminded me of the Chase Edmonds-pick last year since I also kind of expected that they had interest in him, but as soon as the 4th round? Give me a break! Having said that, K2 seemed thrilled with the pick in the video from the war room. I tend to take those videos with a grain of salt, just because of the risk that the people in them are fully aware they are being taped and thus can act accordingly to what is in their own best interest. Anyway, with that caveat, he sure seemed happy.

5 – If you haven’t seen the video of Rosen saying goodbye to Arizona and hello to Miami, I strongly recommend that you do so. It is so classy that it really moved me. Did anyone else afterwards have the feeling that it was – definitely unintended - a huge F YOU to Michael Bidwill, Steve Keim and K2? I mean, for how bad they treated him? If he had blasted them, it would have been easy to just laugh at it and forget about him, but they have got to have a sour taste in their mouth after seeing how he handled himself as a bigger person than them.

6 – Ultimately, how you evaluate the entire draft class doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is if Murray becomes a success or a failure, and that – only that – is what will determine the result of this class.

7 – Safe to say that they thought Joshua Miles, Michael Dogbe and Caleb Wilson would be the three most coveted undrafted free agents from their draft board. To me, that’s kind of exiting.

8 – I think the defensive guys picked are great fits in Vance Joseph’s defense. I didn’t want Byron Murphy in the 2nd round, but after thinking some more about it, he could match what Joseph did with the cornerbacks in Denver, and Murphy should also be able to play as the 3rd cornerback on the field. I am thrilled with the Zach Allen-pick! I really think he will be a monster at 5-tech in their base defense. Deionte Thompson in the 5th round? Steal! I think he can complement Budda Baker and Swearinger really well. I must admit that I do not know about Michael Dogbe, but based on their previous picks I am just going to assume he fits well too.

9 – Caleb Wilson was Josh Rosen’s tight end at UCLA for two years. Ironic, right?

10 – Like I said, I kind of had a hunch that they would be interested in Joshua Miles, but I must also admit that I didn’t base it on watching game tape, since I was not able to find any, but I read a lot of good things about him, and I guess it came down to how I thought the offensive tackle-pool was running empty. They always draft an offensive tackle, so I just assumed they would do so again.

11 - Also, I think it is quite obvious that offensive line coach, Sean Kugler, signed off on both Gaillard and Miles since they were both picked later on. The third round is for developmental players, so I think it would be really strange if Keim and K2 decided for themselves who the position coaches would like to work with.

12 – You could argue that in the end the prize for one year with Josh Rosen ended up being a little less than a first round pick. They got back the fifth rounder and they got a second rounder where they paid a third rounder. That’s not that expensive to give your new perceived offensive wizard the best chance of success.

13 – At his press conference after day two Keim literally said that the four players they had drafted at that point all was ranked in their top 35. That’s basically four first round picks. How stupid does he think we are? So, when approaching the start of the third round you have at least two players with first round grades, but you don’t trade up for any of them? Really? I understand that they might have unsuccessfully tried just that, but if so, don’t you pay a little more than you would have liked? Then, at his review press conference he said that including KeeSean Johnson in the sixth round, the first three players selected at day three where ranked in their top 60. If you have a player ranked as #60 at the worst, and you are approaching pick 174 – AND you have multiple late round picks to use as trading pieces – you simply stayed put and hope for the best? I mean… If you want to sell your achievements to the fans, at least come up with some realistic explanations.

14 – Shoot, there were a number of players that I wanted them to select among the undrafted free agents, but so far, most of them has reportedly been picked up by other teams. Not that it is official yet, but the reports have been ticking in since the selection process ended. There are still players I like out there, so maybe they will still get one or two of them.

15 – So what did we learn about K2’s offensive system? Well, I don’t know. Maybe that he and Sean Kugler favors tough, hard-nosed offensive linemen? Couple Gaillard and Miles with free agent-signings Marcus Gilbert, J.R. Sweezy and Max Garcia and it paints a picture. Other than that, they selected three different types of wide receivers, and free agent-signing Kevin White is probably a mix between Hakeem Butler and KeeSean Johnson. Okay, Kyler Murray and Caleb Wilson probably tells us something, though nothing new and surprising.

Josh went a long way to giving this scenario closure... as fans we need to take it if he can :)
 
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Gandhi

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Good stuff Gandhi. I really like getting the 3 WRs and also the Byron Murphy pick. Many feel that he was the best CB in the draft. I'm happy that Josh was traded and hope he does well. Time to move on. We still have some holes to fill and might take another year to be a playoff team. I know that may even sound too optimistic to some but there is parity in the NFL and teams can turn it around. Others have side it already on this Board but it really will be on how well Murray plays.

AZ, I agree with your optimism. To me, the defense has a lot of good parts, and it’s not that long ago that a unit with a lot of the same parts was one of the better defenses in the league.

Offensively they brought in a head coach who has a reputation for producing great offenses, and now they have even united him with his dream quarterback. Hopefully David Johnson will be better than last year, and other than him I do believe they now have a lot of interesting players to utilize.

I’m not saying they are suddenly going to the Super Bowl, or even the playoffs, but I don’t think it’s that crazy to think they could be significantly better than last season.
 
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Gandhi

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Talk about lipstick on a pig. Trade a #1(10 overall), 3 & 5 for a late 2 & a 5 next year? Then for your mistake have to use the #1 overall to replace that #1 from last year and it isn't that bad?

Manage assets like that in the business world and you would be out on your ass in a heartbeat.

Who said it wasn’t bad, PJ? I said it wasn’t that expensive given that you made sure your new head coach got what he wanted, and thus hopefully are able to bring success. It could have been A LOT worse.

Time to move on.
 
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Gandhi

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Good read as always Gandhi.

#13 - Every team has their top 200 (actual # varies per team) and no two are the same. Every team removes players from their board for various reasons.

The Cowboy and Bengals appear to not remove players who have off the field issues.

3/4 teams have different DL& LBers then 4/3 teams in many cases.

Olinemen won't be on some teams board because they want quicker zone blockers instead of run maulers.

Obviously some teams have different traits they want in their DB's and WR's.

Plus every team misevaluates a number of players which is why UDFA's have made pro bowls and even the HOF.

There are more examples but I think I've made my point.

Keim has stated they set their board in part based on need. So I'm guessing they won't have many WR's listed next year :).

All this says to me that Keim wasn't lying to us. Hopefully their draft board didn't suck :)

#5 - I have zero issue with how Keim handled the Rosen / Murray situation. I agree Rosen showed a TON of class but Keim has never put Josh down for his play or ability.

I know, Cardiac, and I cannot ever prove my point. I just highly doubt that you get four first round picks out of one draft, even though you only have one actual first round pick. I simply don’t believe that.

I will post a video that explains my view. I have been preaching it for years, and hopefully one day everyone will agree like both of us do.

The video is of Bill Davis talking about draft boards.

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Krangodnzr

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What does that tell you then? Rosen isn't a bust.

Think about what he could have received when there were more than 1 team interested/needing a QB.

I have moved on but Keim f'd up the leverage.

You believe Rosen could've gotten more?

I don't. 2nd is what I was saying awhile ago.
 

Krangodnzr

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I know, Cardiac, and I cannot ever prove my point. I just highly doubt that you get four first round picks out of one draft, even though you only have one actual first round pick. I simply don’t believe that.

I will post a video that explains my view. I have been preaching it for years, and hopefully one day everyone will agree like both of us do.

The video is of Bill Davis talking about draft boards.

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Right. The Cardinals got 4 players they would have considered in the 1st round.

The Cardinals. Not the Giants. Not the Ravens. The Cardinals. It makes perfect sense.
 

Chopper0080

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Your top 35 does not mean those players have first round grades. I think the Cardinals run a top 175 or 150 board. They may have only had 15 players with first round grades. This is why you see teams trade out of the first round because no players are left that they have first round grades on.
 

Cardiac

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QB's are considered the most important position in the NFL.

There are not enough quality QB's for all 32 teams in the NFL.

Teams have trade numerous draft picks for the chance to draft a QB.

QB is probably the hardest position in the game to accurately evaluate.

The Cards got Carson Palmer for something like a 6th rd pick.

There is no leverage for a team trying to acquire a QB, they are to valuable and teams won't shoot themselves in their own foot to try and win the negotiation process.

If Rosen had put better tape and results from his ill-fated rookie year then the Cards could have gotten more for him.

Palmer became undervalued because of some injuries, playing for a substandard team and being older.

Rosen became undervalued because of the horrid situation that was the Cardinals last year.

Great job by Keim to improve the QB position while getting back some draft capital for Rosen.
 

Cardinal88

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13 – At his press conference after day two Keim literally said that the four players they had drafted at that point all was ranked in their top 35. That’s basically four first round picks. How stupid does he think we are? So, when approaching the start of the third round you have at least two players with first round grades, but you don’t trade up for any of them? Really? I understand that they might have unsuccessfully tried just that, but if so, don’t you pay a little more than you would have liked? Then, at his review press conference he said that including KeeSean Johnson in the sixth round, the first three players selected at day three where ranked in their top 60. If you have a player ranked as #60 at the worst, and you are approaching pick 174 – AND you have multiple late round picks to use as trading pieces – you simply stayed put and hope for the best? I mean… If you want to sell your achievements to the fans, at least come up with some realistic explanations.

First time poster long time viewer!

I laughed at this one on your list. When I saw that he thought we got 4 of his players in his top 35, it confirmed what I assumed! Keim doesn't know how to pick talent!

Now, these guys may work out great but when your track record is as bad as it has been the last several years, you don't go around and brag about how great you are. Be humble dude! You haven't done squat with the draft since you've been in command.
 

TheCardFan

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I'm definitely confused on the whole leverage debate. We got a second because the four QB needy teams before the fins didn't want him and went in a different direction QB wise. Jmo

Keim waited too long. He says he "never shopped Rosen" and the rumor is he only started calling teams about a Rosen trade "minutes" before they drafted Murray. This would have leaked if he was shopping Rosen...you know it.

The only way that situation works in your favor (game of chicken) is NYG or Washington don't get one of the top 2 QB's in round 1 and they jump on Rosen at 15 or 17. Nobody knew the Giants would reach for Jones at #6 and that screwed everything up for Keim's last minute strategy. If the Giants take Haskins or another team took a QB (Oakland, Denver, Cincy, etc)...that would have paid off for Keim.

Think about it this way...everyone knew we couldn't go into this season with Rosen and Murray on the roster. Everyone also knew that only the Dolphins remained interested.

Leverage means you have the power to get your way. Keim lost that when he waited too long and the 2 main suitors got another QB.
 

Cardiac

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Keim waited too long. He says he "never shopped Rosen" and the rumor is he only started calling teams about a Rosen trade "minutes" before they drafted Murray. This would have leaked if he was shopping Rosen...you know it.

The only way that situation works in your favor (game of chicken) is NYG or Washington don't get one of the top 2 QB's in round 1 and they jump on Rosen at 15 or 17. Nobody knew the Giants would reach for Jones at #6 and that screwed everything up for Keim's last minute strategy. If the Giants take Haskins or another team took a QB (Oakland, Denver, Cincy, etc)...that would have paid off for Keim.

Think about it this way...everyone knew we couldn't go into this season with Rosen and Murray on the roster. Everyone also knew that only the Dolphins remained interested.

Leverage means you have the power to get your way. Keim lost that when he waited too long and the 2 main suitors got another QB.

OR every GM in the NFL knew that Murray might be our pick and ergo Rosen might be available and if you see a QB you love that may be available you try to go get him. You don't sit on your hands and hope this and that happens and he falls into your lap.
 
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football karma

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pre draft -- the speculation on Rosens value kinda split into two camps:

The 1st round group: rationale was that Rosen would be a top 1 or 2 QB in this draft, has a very affordable contract and a years experience

the 3rd or a 4th round pick group: rationale here was Rosen was damaged goods and the Cardinals are stuck if they take Murray.

the actual comp ended up right in the middle of the bid/ask spread. Kinda surprising they got that given that they were down to one bidder
 

dscher

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Keim waited too long. He says he "never shopped Rosen" and the rumor is he only started calling teams about a Rosen trade "minutes" before they drafted Murray. This would have leaked if he was shopping Rosen...you know it.

The only way that situation works in your favor (game of chicken) is NYG or Washington don't get one of the top 2 QB's in round 1 and they jump on Rosen at 15 or 17. Nobody knew the Giants would reach for Jones at #6 and that screwed everything up for Keim's last minute strategy. If the Giants take Haskins or another team took a QB (Oakland, Denver, Cincy, etc)...that would have paid off for Keim.

Think about it this way...everyone knew we couldn't go into this season with Rosen and Murray on the roster. Everyone also knew that only the Dolphins remained interested.

Leverage means you have the power to get your way. Keim lost that when he waited too long and the 2 main suitors got another QB.
Ehh..leverage means nothing if the the teams that need or want a QB don't want him in the first place and would prefer another. I understand your point though. I'm just stating I believe it wouldn't have mattered anyhow. I personally don't think they were sold on Rosen. I also don't think Keim waiting till draft night mattered to those three teams to take Rosen over the QBs they chose in the draft. Jmo though.
 
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Gandhi

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#13.

I Think you underestimate how different teams’ board are from the default media boards and How much They differ from team to team.

Keim Said that they had the first 4 in top 35. PFF had the 4 in the top 40.

No, I don’t, Bach. In fact, I have been preaching that exact notion for years. Look at the video I posted above, or you can look up basically all of my draft post from the last three or four years or so.

My point in this specific situation is that I believe every team has about the same 20-25 players ranked in the first round (the best prospects fits in most scheme), though this year there has been reports of teams only having about 12-15 players with first round grades. To me, getting four first round picks in the first three (essentially two) rounds is unreliable. It is what it is.
 
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Gandhi

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Your top 35 does not mean those players have first round grades. I think the Cardinals run a top 175 or 150 board. They may have only had 15 players with first round grades. This is why you see teams trade out of the first round because no players are left that they have first round grades on.

I know, Chopper. I stated that in several posts above, and I haven’t said anything about using my own rankings.

It doesn’t make it much better, though. If all four were in there top 35, yet they got them in the first two rounds, I still think they ranked Isabella way too high. To me, draft reviews are not only about accepting the outcome, but to judge it based on your own expectations.
 

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Several things I agree with here, Slanidrac. First, I think you are spot on with how you need conviction in your picks. Keim has said multiple times that he thought about drafting Wilson but decided not to because he didn’t have the courage, and then two years ago it has been widely reported that they wanted to draft Mahomes. I don’t doubt that those incidents has taught Keim a lesson, and that it was an important part in them drafting Murray.

Two, I don’t have any problem reaching for a player either. To me, you get in trouble if you try to create a player because you need a specific position, or simply because you have fallen in love with a prospect, but adjusting your rankings when your pick approaches is not at all a mistake in my opinion. Where I disagree is that I won’t take a player a round earlier than I have him graded. I think that is where you are trying to invent a player that is not there, and I think that will end up biting you later on.



I would really like a new edge rusher to at least complement Suggs, but other than that, I do agree if Vance Joseph is as good as we all hope.
I think there's something to be said for letting the draft come to you. If you see several players you have ranked high falling it often pays to wait. Some of them might just fall into your lap.

I'm not saying never move up but you have to give up something to do so. One of the things I like about this draft is the number of players we got. We know some will fail and maybe a player we didn't give much of a thought to will end up being a solid pick. The more chances we have the more likely we might strike gold.
 

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Gandhi, thanks. I'll make two points:
1. The Draft's success will come down to your #6 thought.
2. I disagree with two of your pick evaluations. I don't like Zach Allen, and I do like Hakeem Butler, as I see him as the difference (for me) between a good and very good draft.
 

Chopper0080

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I know, Chopper. I stated that in several posts above, and I haven’t said anything about using my own rankings.

It doesn’t make it much better, though. If all four were in there top 35, yet they got them in the first two rounds, I still think they ranked Isabella way too high. To me, draft reviews are not only about accepting the outcome, but to judge it based on your own expectations.
I guess I am missing your point. Keim stated that he had Murray, Murphy, Isabella and Zach Allen as players in their top 35. They drafted Allen at 65. So, if you look at a condensed board, the Cardinals had 54% of the 65 players selected in their top 35. If you compare that to when they picked at the very end of the draft, say Wilson was the 150th player on their board, 59% of the total players selected would have been on their top 150. That is not a poor ratio.
 

JCSunsfan

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Rosen's film did not help him. Rumors about Rosen being divisive in the locker room scared teams away. I do not believe they were justified, but they were still out there. It is what it is.
 
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Gandhi

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Gandhi, thanks. I'll make two points:
1. The Draft's success will come down to your #6 thought.
2. I disagree with two of your pick evaluations. I don't like Zach Allen, and I do like Hakeem Butler, as I see him as the difference (for me) between a good and very good draft.

Well, to me, Zach Allen is reminiscent of Derek Wolfe who Vance Joseph had much success with on the defensive line in Denver as the defensive end in a three man-front. I think Allen will get significant playing time in their base defense where Nkemdiche are probably his biggest rival (providing Gunter is backing up Peters in the middle). I don’t know if Allen can stay on the field in a four man-front, but I could see it happen.

I completely understand your view on the Butler-pick, and I have probably expressed myself incorrectly. From a height-weight-speed perspective I also think he is a fascinating prospect, and I am not putting it past K2, offensive coordinator Tom Clements and wide receiver coach David Raih to make Butler effective, either this season or next. My point is that I felt it was to soon to pick him. I would have waited, especially because I thought there were more intriguing players on the board. Having said that, after hearing how K2 had first hand experience of how good Butler can be, and that he surely has one or more roles ready for Butler in his offense, I am obviously admitting my mistake, and, like you, now I am also intrigued with the possibilities.
 
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Gandhi

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I guess I am missing your point. Keim stated that he had Murray, Murphy, Isabella and Zach Allen as players in their top 35. They drafted Allen at 65. So, if you look at a condensed board, the Cardinals had 54% of the 65 players selected in their top 35. If you compare that to when they picked at the very end of the draft, say Wilson was the 150th player on their board, 59% of the total players selected would have been on their top 150. That is not a poor ratio.

That’s a fair point. I guess I would say that, if you are correct (and you very well could be), then I just don’t see it as a very good selling point, or maybe I just missed the point entirely. Say that Zach Allen was their #35 ranked player, then they surely must have known that many more than 34 players would be drafted ahead of him. I mean, let’s just say they, for some reason, had taken Daniel Jones, Josh Jacobs and Greedy Williams off their board. Then they must still have had a pretty good idea that those guys would get drafted within the first two rounds, and if so, then it might come down to that they got their #35 ranked player in about the area they expected, give or take 5-10 picks or so. I guess I just don’t see that as an impressive achievement, and I thought that was what Keim tried to sell it is being. I could be wrong, though.

I’m not sure I managed to make it make more sense, but I hope so.
 
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