Murray Conversation: Sunk Cost/Future Risk

[Solar7]

It worked out fine for the Cowboys. Players are not that fragile.

Comparing quarterbacks to OLB or CB is off the wall.

That was a different scenario completely, and to say that it isn't would be to ignore the history.

1. Walsh wasn't picked #1 overall straight up, he was picked in the supplemental draft and the Cowboys happened to suck enough for it to cost next year's #1 overall. Had things played out differently, that could have been a pick in the 20s when they were making the decision.

2. Walsh was selected primarily with the idea of trading him away for other picks, not really to take the job from Aikman. However, no one bit.

3. Both guys were given equal opportunities to compete from the start of their career, there was nothing but play on the field - in the NFL - to sort the scenario out. Rosen enters with doubt and the stigma of being brought in by a different regime.

4. All of this is ignoring that this was also a completely different era, where paying these players was just a matter of how much cash you had on hand, not a salary cap to manage.

Players really are that fragile. Even Aikman almost asked for a trade before the competition even began.

 

[TJ]

Murray might be a Tab lol

In one of those mini 8-ounce party cans

 

[Mainstreet]

That was a different scenario completely, and to say that it is would be to ignore the history.

1. Walsh wasn't picked #1 overall straight up, he was picked in the supplemental draft and the Cowboys happened to suck enough for it to cost next year's #1 overall. Had things played out differently, that could have been a pick in the 20s when they were making the decision.

2. Walsh was selected primarily with the idea of trading him away for other picks, not really to take the job from Aikman. However, no one bit.

3. Both guys were given equal opportunities to compete from the start of their career, there was nothing but play on the field - in the NFL - to sort the scenario out. Rosen enters with doubt and the stigma of being brought in by a different regime.

4. All of this is ignoring that this was also a completely different era, where paying these players was just a matter of how much cash you had on hand, not a salary cap to manage.

Players really are that fragile. Even Aikman almost asked for a trade before the competition even began.

The scenarios are similar enough for comparison. It can be done... different eras or not.

If Rosen is too fragile to compete, then maybe he is not the right quarterback. This is not an established quarterback we are talking about.

The original talking point was if the Cardinals traded 2 firsts, a third, and a fifth for a franchise QB it would be a bust situation.

I still say it's not if the Cardinals find their franchise quarterback.

 

[GuernseyCard]

Murray might be a Tab lol

He drinks from a sippy cup.

 

[Solar7]

The scenarios are similar enough for comparison. It can be done... different eras or not.

If Rosen is too fragile to compete, then maybe he is not the right quarterback. This is not an established quarterback we are talking about.

The original talking point was if the Cardinals traded 2 firsts, a third, and a fifth for a franchise QB it would be a bust situation.

I still say it's not if the Cardinals find their franchise quarterback.

Well, the original argument is really moving on from Rosen for Murray, I wrote the thread, haha... even if I didn't get it out there.

But this argument that players aren't allowed to be semi-fragile and are supposed to be productive automatons is ridiculous. If you got a new boss at a company, and he brought in "his" guy to directly compete with you for your job, you think you wouldn't bat an eye and would just go about work like nothing happened? No, like a normal person, you'd feel intense pressure, would probably press too hard, and would also immediately begin looking for another job.

They're humans, man. Our egos have an effect.

 

[Mainstreet]

Well, the original argument is really moving on from Rosen for Murray, I wrote the thread, haha... even if I didn't get it out there.

But this argument that players aren't allowed to be semi-fragile and are supposed to be productive automatons is ridiculous. If you got a new boss at a company, and he brought in "his" guy to directly compete with you for your job, you think you wouldn't bat an eye and would just go about work like nothing happened? No, like a normal person, you'd feel intense pressure, would probably press too hard, and would also immediately begin looking for another job.

They're humans, man. Our egos have an effect.

Here is where it got started in post #3. See below:

Imagine that the Cardinals traded 2 firsts, a third, and a fifth for a franchise QB.

That's not terrible.

I'm not for giving Rosen away for pennies on the dollar though. I'd rather keep him than do this.

 

[football karma]

I never mentioned the sunk cost "fallacy," I just mentioned pure sunk cost.

its kinda the definition of the sunk cost fallacy: the argument that the Cards cant give up on Josh Rosen because they spent three draft picks last year on him, and, seem like they would get less back in draft picks if they traded him.

those picks from 2018 are long gone.

All you have is Josh Rosen now and the evaluation of if he gives you a better chance at future success than a draftable QB this year. You do today what is best going forward

 

[Solar7]

its kinda the definition of the sunk cost fallacy: the argument that the Cards cant give up on Josh Rosen because they spent three draft picks last year on him, and, seem like they would get less back in draft picks if they traded him.

those picks from 2018 are long gone.

All you have is Josh Rosen now and the evaluation of if he gives you a better chance at future success than a draftable QB this year. You do today what is best going forward

Yeah, but the question is also very much about the future. You can't sink your cost on Murray too and end up right back up here.

My parents spent $10,000 or some ridiculous number to put in pebble tec in the pool last year and mom doesn't really like the color. They're considering spending the same to get it all redone in blue. What if she doesn't like that? Where do you stand at the end of now $20,000?

It's the same here. If Murray doesn't solve our problem and turn into the all-world QB we want (immediately by the way, in a division that way outclasses us), what do we do? Spend another $10,000 to change the pool color again?

We can't keep affording that.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Yeah, but the question is also very much about the future. You can't sink your cost on Murray too and end up right back up here.

My parents spent $10,000 or some ridiculous number to put in pebble tec in the pool last year and mom doesn't really like the color. They're considering spending the same to get it all redone in blue. What if she doesn't like that? Where do you stand at the end of now $20,000?

It's the same here. If Murray doesn't solve our problem and turn into the all-world QB we want (immediately by the way, in a division that way outclasses us), what do we do? Spend another $10,000 to change the pool color again?

We can't keep affording that.

But you have to with QB.

I'd argue historically the Cardinals havent been bold enough at QB.

 

[Solar7]

But you have to with QB.

I'd argue historically the Cardinals havent been bold enough at QB.

I do wish that we'd taken a few more shots, but honestly, I believe it's more luck. Proper evaluation too, at the end of the day.

In the "modern era," which I'm really just calling the past 20 years, I don't think we've made any tremendous mistakes given what we've had at the time. The best arguments would be 2004 (in which we ended up with who is arguably the best player this franchise has ever had), or 2005, with Aaron Rodgers.

(You could argue not taking a shot at Cousins, but that's kinda silly. I won't count Wilson.)

 

[Crimson Warrior]

its kinda the definition of the sunk cost fallacy: the argument that the Cards cant give up on Josh Rosen because they spent three draft picks last year on him, and, seem like they would get less back in draft picks if they traded him.

those picks from 2018 are long gone.

All you have is Josh Rosen now and the evaluation of if he gives you a better chance at future success than a draftable QB this year. You do today what is best going forward

Very nice sir.

 

[Krangodnzr]

I do wish that we'd taken a few more shots, but honestly, I believe it's more luck. Proper evaluation too, at the end of the day.

In the "modern era," which I'm really just calling the past 20 years, I don't think we've made any tremendous mistakes given what we've had at the time. The best arguments would be 2004 (in which we ended up with who is arguably the best player this franchise has ever had), or 2005, with Aaron Rodgers.

(You could argue not taking a shot at Cousins, but that's kinda silly. I won't count Wilson.)

04 or 05 should have been QB.

Trade up for Mahomes.

There were opportunities but the team was too conservative.

I think Murray can be a really good Qb, which is why I want him. I think hes just flat out better than Rosen and the team will be better for the bold move.

 

[Crimson Warrior]

04 or 05 should have been QB.

Trade up for Mahomes.

There were opportunities but the team was too conservative.

I think Murray can be a really good Qb, which is why I want him. I think hes just flat out better than Rosen and the team will be better for the bold move.

I think you're probably right Krang. Historically, even considering last year, we haven't tried hard enough to get a QB in the draft.

What bothers me now about the Rosen pick (because I've only now really educated myself about Josh), is I can't understand why everyone was so high on him.

What has he ever done to make anybody think that he's a QBOTF? Be tall, and have a good arm? Start a bunch of games for a power five conference team?

I understand that Aikman said that "he was the most pro-ready prospect" last year, but man. His completion percentage was never better than 63%. And a 147 QB rating over his entire last year? That's not very good. At all. And it's not exactly like the Pac 12 is murderer's row. Josh played against exactly two ranked teams his last year in college.

How in the world did he get to be the #10 pick in the draft?

 

[Krangodnzr]

I think you're probably right Krang. Historically, even considering last year, we haven't tried hard enough to get a QB in the draft.

What bothers me now about the Rosen pick (because I've only now really educated myself about Josh), is I can't understand why everyone was so high on him.

What has he ever done to make anybody think that he's a QBOTF? Be tall, and have a good arm? Start a bunch of games for a power five conference team?

I understand that Aikman said that "he was the most pro-ready prospect" last year, but man. His completion percentage was never better than 63%. And a 147 QB rating over his entire last year? That's not very good. At all. And it's not exactly like the Pac 12 is murderer's row. Josh played against exactly two ranked teams his last year in college.

How in the world did he get to be the #10 pick in the draft?

Rosen shows great throws on film. He played with a poo team. Historically, QBs who won with less than optimal talent in college are the ones who excel in the NFL.

 

[BACH]

you reference the sunk cost fallacy in your thread title, and then make a sunk cost based argument

can we all agree that IF the Cards take Murray, it will be because they concluded that Murray has a far greater likelihood to become a Franchise QB than Rosen? I doubt they make this move if it were close. (btw: for the "I dont trust Keim's judgement" argument -- Keim also took Rosen, so....)

for the most important position on the field, if the team plans to not be drafting at #1 ever again, and the team really believes that this is a special player: i think you have to take him, prior cost be damned, a recoup as best you can on Rosen.

Completely Agreed.

If the coaching staff believe Murray is an uber talent, then you take him and worry about Rosen later.

The job is to maximize talent and sunk costs are irrelevant if you think you can get Pro Ball QB.

 

[BW52]

I think you're probably right Krang. Historically, even considering last year, we haven't tried hard enough to get a QB in the draft.

What bothers me now about the Rosen pick (because I've only now really educated myself about Josh), is I can't understand why everyone was so high on him.

What has he ever done to make anybody think that he's a QBOTF? Be tall, and have a good arm? Start a bunch of games for a power five conference team?

I understand that Aikman said that "he was the most pro-ready prospect" last year, but man. His completion percentage was never better than 63%. And a 147 QB rating over his entire last year? That's not very good. At all. And it's not exactly like the Pac 12 is murderer's row. Josh played against exactly two ranked teams his last year in college.

How in the world did he get to be the #10 pick in the draft?

CW-that's the biggest pile of Horsecrap you have written,Sorry but you missed on this one.You rip Rosen because he played a few ranked teams his last year and yet you kiss Murrays ass because he played in a poor defensive conference and had the most NFl talent on his team surrounding him giving him more weapons than any team in the conference.Double standard much?Okieteam will likey have possibly 9-10 guys drafted this draft..4 guys from the OLINE alone.
Finally you do understand a lot of the NFl is based on Projections-Rosen has arm,size,talent etc.You and your fellow Murray fans love to preach about hoiw great Murray is going to be and how much of a game changer he will be...…...is that not projection?
Don`t mean to be rude or nasty …..but IMHO you are trying to have it both ways...

 

[Crimson Warrior]

CW-that's the biggest pile of Horsecrap you have written,Sorry but you missed on this one.You rip Rosen because he played a few ranked teams his last year and yet you kiss Murrays ass because he played in a poor defensive conference and had the most NFl talent on his team surrounding him giving him more weapons than any team in the conference.Double standard much?Okieteam will likey have possibly 9-10 guys drafted this draft..4 guys from the OLINE alone.
Finally you do understand a lot of the NFl is based on Projections-Rosen has arm,size,talent etc.You and your fellow Murray fans love to preach about hoiw great Murray is going to be and how much of a game changer he will be...…...is that not projection?
Don`t mean to be rude or nasty …..but IMHO you are trying to have it both ways...

Ouch! okay.. okay BW52.. I give up on this one!

I'm definitely wrong sometimes, and I realize that many, many people had Rosen highly rated coming out of college.

I should not have questioned it sir.

 

[BW52]

Ouch! okay.. okay BW52.. I give up on this one!

I'm definitely wrong sometimes, and I realize that many, many people had Rosen highly rated coming out of college.

I should not have questioned it sir.

Not a problem CW...
Not a single one of us is perfect all the time.

 

[GatorAZ]

I like Diet Coke

Ever tried CZS?