Last great offensive line draft

Finito

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Back in 2013 there were a ton of blue chip can’t miss Offensive line man.

6 of the top 11 were O-line

Eric Fisher
Luke Joeckel
Lane Johnson
Jonathon Cooper
Chance Warmack
DJ Flucker

and they all kinda suck, Fisher is good at times but nowhere near good enough to justify #1. He got ate up against SF.

Lane Johnson has developed into a really good RT.

Joeckel and Cooper got hurt

Warmack was the best guard I’ve ever seen and that’s not an exaggeration and he’s been horrible in the NFL.

DJ Fluker has bounced around and is now a guard.

Cooper and Warmack were considered the safest picks in that draft plug and play 10 year all pros. I really really wanted Warmack in this draft.

so with all the talk of Wirfs, Wills, Becton and Thomas just remember 2 maybe 3 of them are going to be average at best. It’s just how the draft is.
 

Jetstream Green

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Back in 2013 there were a ton of blue chip can’t miss Offensive line man.

6 of the top 11 were O-line

Eric Fisher
Luke Joeckel
Lane Johnson
Jonathon Cooper
Chance Warmack
DJ Flucker

and they all kinda suck, Fisher is good at times but nowhere near good enough to justify #1. He got ate up against SF.

Lane Johnson has developed into a really good RT.

Joeckel and Cooper got hurt

Warmack was the best guard I’ve ever seen and that’s not an exaggeration and he’s been horrible in the NFL.

DJ Fluker has bounced around and is now a guard.

Cooper and Warmack were considered the safest picks in that draft plug and play 10 year all pros. I really really wanted Warmack in this draft.

so with all the talk of Wirfs, Wills, Becton and Thomas just remember 2 maybe 3 of them are going to be average at best. It’s just how the draft is.

Yup... Joekel was cited as a sure all pro, even some saying he was the perfect OT
 

TheCardFan

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2013 was a pretty weak 1st round overall.

Interesting tidbit.

We have two players on our roster that were #1 picks in 2013...

Deandre Hopkins and Justin Pugh
 

cardsunsfan

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I with I had the statistics in front of me but I just feel like Olineman are the biggest crap shoot position.. Wide Receivers on average have a much better chance of performing when drafted in the first round. I know there is still misses there but Oline seems to be much less than 50%
 

juza76

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Bama linemen turn really bad in the nfl
Probably cause the Alabama program can get their full potential in college and they don't have much ceiling
 

juza76

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The more we get closer to the draft the more I think we should trade down if Simmons or Okudah aren't there

CJ Henderson is very good, not very far from Okudah
Andrew Thomas will be probably the best pro of this offensive lineman class
Kinlaw can be the missing piece
 

Solar7

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I with I had the statistics in front of me but I just feel like Olineman are the biggest crap shoot position.. Wide Receivers on average have a much better chance of performing when drafted in the first round. I know there is still misses there but Oline seems to be much less than 50%
Go back and look at WRs in the past 5 years, and you'll find out you're wrong. There's really two guys to speak of and they came late in the first.

There hasn't been a good top ten WR since Cooper, and even he got moved.
 
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Finito

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WR,O-line

whoever. The draft is one giant crap shoot. I think it’s 50% of first rounders don’t make it to there second contract. It’s message board stuff on why people think you should be drafting all pros year in and year out when that’s just not reality
 

WhyAlwaysMe

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WR,O-line

whoever. The draft is one giant crap shoot. I think it’s 50% of first rounders don’t make it to there second contract. It’s message board stuff on why people think you should be drafting all pros year in and year out when that’s just not reality

All of the can’t miss guys that miss or fail to get close to expectations are why smart teams accumulate draft capital. Absolutely nobody here or in any NFL FO knows that anyone in this draft (except Young) will absolutely be a pro-bowl caliber player.

And yet every year, fans (and teams) salivate over “the missing piece” and this year’s model of can’t miss.

I, for one, hope that one of the QBs falls so we can trade down to 15-20 and pick up a couple more quality picks.
 

SissyBoyFloyd

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So what is the moral of the story? Might it be what Belickick seems to believe that the draft success should be more about quantity. Not purely, I feel it is more like our expectations are not realistically aligned with the future reality. We, like the pundits, or should I say because of the pundits, start our expectation scale at 100% for the number 1 pick and drop it down a fraction for each pick from there. When the reality is that the % for success should begin somewhere between 50-75 and drop off from there. More like:

Top 10 - 50-75%
Picks 11-20 - 40-50%
21-40 - 35-40%
41-100 - 30-35%
101- 150 - 25--30%
151-200 - 20-25%
201-200 - 10-20%:
Below 200 - 1-10%

As you can see, having 2 of the picks 1 or maybe 2 steps below a higher one, gives you a better % chance to find a successful player.
 
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Solar7

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WR,O-line

whoever. The draft is one giant crap shoot. I think it’s 50% of first rounders don’t make it to there second contract. It’s message board stuff on why people think you should be drafting all pros year in and year out when that’s just not reality
Yeah, but considering Keim's track record, he's been exceptionally poor.

Statistically at this point he should have had a hit just by luck. (Joking a little bit, but it's been bad.)
 

WhyAlwaysMe

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So what is the moral of the story? Might it be what Belickick seems to believe that the draft success should be more about quantity. No, I feel it is simply that our expectations are not realistically aligned with the future reality. We, like the pundits, or should I say because of the pundits, start our expectation scale at 100% for the number 1 pick and drop it down a fraction for each pick from there. When the reality is that the % for success should begin somewhere between 50-75 and drop off from there. More like:

Top 10 - 60-75%
Picks 11-20 - 50-60%
21-40 - 40-50%
41-100 - 33-40%
101- 150 - 25--33%
151-200 - 15-25%
201-200 - 10-15%
Below 200 - 1-10%

I agree with the general breakdown of success rate by category being tiered. But the math above suggests that three guys between 41-100 are likely to yield on average one good player, whereas a top ten guy is .65-.70 of a good player.
 

WhyAlwaysMe

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Yeah, but considering Keim's track record, he's been exceptionally poor.

Statistically at this point he should have had a hit just by luck. (Joking a little bit, but it's been bad.)

Keim hasn’t been a good drafter, but he has used draft capital at a top-10 GM level.

Carson
Chandler
Hop
Drake

were all legit highway robbery.
 
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Finito

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So what is the moral of the story? Might it be what Belickick seems to believe that the draft success should be more about quantity. Not purely, I feel it is more like our expectations are not realistically aligned with the future reality. We, like the pundits, or should I say because of the pundits, start our expectation scale at 100% for the number 1 pick and drop it down a fraction for each pick from there. When the reality is that the % for success should begin somewhere between 50-75 and drop off from there. More like:

Top 10 - 50-75%
Picks 11-20 - 40-50%
21-40 - 35-40%
41-100 - 30-35%
101- 150 - 25--30%
151-200 - 20-25%
201-200 - 10-20%:
Below 200 - 1-10%

As you can see, having 2 of the picks 1 or maybe 2 steps below a higher one, gives you a better % chance to find a successful player.

but the patriots don’t really draft well. Oh idk maybe having the greatest QB of all time who kept taking team friendly deals helped just a little

what the patriots do is hit in free agency and take other teams cast offs
 

SissyBoyFloyd

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I agree with the general breakdown of success rate by category being tiered. But the math above suggests that three guys between 41-100 are likely to yield on average one good player, whereas a top ten guy is .65-.70 of a good player.

Well the percentages where an example, not meant to be statistically accurate of course. But the idea is having 3 picks say between the top 41-100 might give you a better chance than having just 1 top 10 pick. All depending on the year and depth of the draft.
 

daves

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I with I had the statistics in front of me but I just feel like Olineman are the biggest crap shoot position.. Wide Receivers on average have a much better chance of performing when drafted in the first round. I know there is still misses there but Oline seems to be much less than 50%
Here are the stats. These two articles are really interesting. They each demonstrate that in fact, all OL positions drafted in the 1st round have a better chance at being named All-Pro, better chance at being selected for the Pro Bowl, and lower bust rate than WRs. 1st round WR are the LEAST likely of all positions to go to a Pro Bowl.

These trends persist when considering only top-10 picks, and when considering the last 25 years or just the last 10 years.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...e-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft

...dave
 
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