Lakers "luck"

[Peter Sheldon]

This is by no means a thorough investigation, but I was looking at the Lakers
lottery top 10 picks since 1994. I am not sure if any of these involved trades
that were picks from other teams. Maybe somebody can enlighten me.

year, standings rank, pick number
---------------------------------
1994 10 10
2014 6 7
2015 4 2
2016 2 2
2017 3 2
2019 13 4

sure is nice to be a Laker, never having to worry about getting screwed in the lottery.
I wonder what the statistical odds are of such "luck".

It would be interesting to see the same chart for the Suns,
but I can be sure it would be depressing as hell.

 

[Hoop Head]

It would be interesting to see the same chart for the Suns,
but I can be sure it would be depressing as hell.

Welcome to hell! Here is how the Suns faired in that same time frame....
Like you, I listed draft year, position in reverse standings, and where they picked.

2002 - 9th & 9th
2004 - 6th & 7th
2008 - 14th & 14th
2011 - 13th & 13th
2012 - 13th & 13th
2013 - 4th & 5th
2014 - 14th & 14th
2015 - 13th & 13th
2016 - 4th & 4th
2017 - 2nd & 4th
2018 - 1st & 1st
2019 - 3rd & 6th


In the 12 lottery drawings the Suns have been in over the last 20 years they have stayed where their record indicated they should be 8 times, fallen back 4 times, and have not moved up once.


Welcome to the board! As a Suns fan you will find plenty of fans here who understand how hard it can be to root for the unluckiest team in all major American sports.

 

[Peter Sheldon]

Thanks for the greetings. The Suns results over the years are better than I expected.

 

[Hoop Head]

Thanks for the greetings. The Suns results over the years are better than I expected.

I expected worse also but I guess not being in the lottery in the 90's helped keep it a little better than I suspected and staying even helped as well. Still, to think that in 12 lottery appearances we haven't moved up even 1 spot 1 time is a bit nuts, especially compared to the Lakers who move up every time they're in the lottery, it seems.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Thanks for the greetings. The Suns results over the years are better than I expected.

Yeah they really aren't that bad at all. It's more a lack of good luck than it is a run of the bad stuff. And welcome to the board.

 

[BC867]

Thanks for the greetings. The Suns results over the years are better than I expected.

The old Suns mantra -- put on a good show at home, don't embarrass yourself on the road and make the playoffs.

Jerry Colangelo worked it well. And it fit the small Phoenix market. But never a contender to be strong in the playoffs.

 

[Mainstreet]

The old Suns mantra -- put on a good show at home, don't embarrass yourself on the road and make the playoffs.

Jerry Colangelo worked it well. And it fit the small Phoenix market. But never a contender to be strong in the playoffs.

IIRC, this was Cotton's philosophy about how to make the playoffs. Win at home and play .500 on the road.

Colangelo realized the Suns were not ready to be a contender in the early years but he promised to always put an exciting product on the floor.

If Colangelo could have bought a championship while he owned the Suns, he would have... like he did with the Diamondbacks.

 

[BC867]

IIRC, this was Cotton's philosophy about how to make the playoffs. Win at home and play .500 on the road.

Colangelo realized the Suns were not ready to be a contender in the early years but he promised to always put an exciting product on the floor.

If Colangelo could have bought a championship while he owned the Suns, he would have... like he did with the Diamondbacks.

It existed for more than any other Head Coach throughout John MacLeod's long tenure. That is when they established themselves as a "finesse" team.

Ironically, when Cotton coached the KC/Omaha Kings and lost his Point Guard and Shooting Guard to injury, he eliminated the Suns in the playoff by
starting two Centers and three Forwards, instead of going weaker.

Cotton knew that, when it counted the most, power beat finesse. It is why he said, "We need someone like Charles Barkley." when he later coached the Suns.

 

[Mainstreet]

It existed for more than any other Head Coach throughout John MacLeod's long tenure. That is when they established themselves as a "finesse" team.

Ironically, when Cotton coached the KC/Omaha Kings and lost his Point Guard and Shooting Guard to injury, he eliminated the Suns in the playoff by
starting two Centers and three Forwards, instead of going weaker.

Cotton knew that, when it counted the most, power beat finesse. It is why he said, "We need someone like Charles Barkley." when he later coached the Suns.

The Suns were a finesse team almost by necessity. They were not blesses to get Kareem or David Robinson.

Remember Rick Robey...which I know you do. They tried to get tougher upfront.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

The Suns were a finesse team almost by necessity. They were not blesses to get Kareem or David Robinson.

Remember Rick Robey...which I know you do. They tried to get tougher upfront.

They were always trying. Drafting joe Barry carol, trading for hot rod, signing luc longley. The narrative that JC wasn’t interested in big men is a fallacy. JC tried repeatedly and just came up short. Few and far between were dominant centers that changed teams in JCs heyday.

 

[Cheesebeef]

They were always trying. Drafting joe Barry carol, trading for hot rod, signing luc longley. The narrative that JC wasn’t interested in big men is a fallacy. JC tried repeatedly and just came up short. Few and far between were dominant centers that changed teams in JCs heyday.

and tried to trade barkley for Dikembe but the trade ended up falling through. And we tried to trade for Mourning the season he got traded to the Heat. And they made bad trades for guys like the X-man who was supposed to bring grit to the team... and drafted stiffs like Jake Tsakilidis.

But none of that matters to BC who continues to act like the Suns had opportunities to draft Shaq (team wasn't in the lotto) or Kareem/David Robinson (lost the coin flip) and just decided not to, while ignoring that up until Sarver took over the Suns had the 4th best winning percentage of ALL TIME during Jerry's reign over the team.

 

[slinslin]

This is by no means a thorough investigation, but I was looking at the Lakers
lottery top 10 picks since 1994. I am not sure if any of these involved trades
that were picks from other teams. Maybe somebody can enlighten me.

year, standings rank, pick number
---------------------------------
1994 10 10
2014 6 7
2015 4 2
2016 2 2
2017 3 2
2019 13 4

sure is nice to be a Laker, never having to worry about getting screwed in the lottery.
I wonder what the statistical odds are of such "luck".

It would be interesting to see the same chart for the Suns,
but I can be sure it would be depressing as hell.

Suns have all time moved down a total of -2 spots
Lakers have all time moved up a total of +9 spots (only 3 or 4 teams have moved up more and those were in the lottery more often)

Suns have not been THAT screwed because they have not been in the high lottery that much. Minnesota is something like -19.

 

[Mainstreet]

They were always trying. Drafting joe Barry carol, trading for hot rod, signing luc longley. The narrative that JC wasn’t interested in big men is a fallacy. JC tried repeatedly and just came up short. Few and far between were dominant centers that changed teams in JCs heyday.

And of course the tragic death of Nick Vanos.

 

[BC867]

The Suns were a finesse team almost by necessity. They were not blesses to get Kareem or David Robinson.

Remember Rick Robey...which I know you do. They tried to get tougher upfront.

Rick Robey was a 3rd string Center on the Celtics when we obtained him. 3rd string!

The problem was that the late John MacLeod tied up the Center spot with his 212 lb. string bean from Oklahoma (whom he coached) for a decade. And Jerry went
along with it. That is why we were a finesse team. Robey became our starting Power Forward, which meant de-facto Center. Too bad he was 3rd string material.

Then, for quite a while, we had Mark West who, at 6'10-240, seemed to fit the bill but he never learned how to stay out of foul trouble and wasn't there when we
needed him.

The Suns were not a finesse by necessity. It was by choice. It became Jerry's safe haven. And regarding Kareem or the Admiral, there's that all-or-nothing again.

 

[BC867]

and tried to trade barkley for Dikembe but the trade ended up falling through. And we tried to trade for Mourning the season he got traded to the Heat. And they made bad trades for guys like the X-man who was supposed to bring grit to the team... and drafted stiffs like Jake Tsakilidis.

But none of that matters to BC who continues to act like the Suns had opportunities to draft Shaq (team wasn't in the lotto) or Kareem/David Robinson (lost the coin flip) and just decided not to, while ignoring that up until Sarver took over the Suns had the 4th best winning percentage of ALL TIME during Jerry's reign over the team.

4th best winning percentage of all time. And never became a Championship contender. Colangelo and MacLeod were evidently content to finish the regular season with a good record. Despite the growth of the City of Phoenix to the most populated State Capital city in the country, the team leaders never advanced to the next step.

The Suns acted like a light team, because that was the mentality of its leaders. They obviously never had what it to took to succeed beyond that. That is the history.

 

[Hoop Head]

Got into an argument with a friend about lottery luck, he's a Mavericks fan and I mentioned the 12 lottery trips in the last 30 years that I looked up and he did the research for the Mavericks. They had 16 Lottery trips, 7 resulted in them moving back and they've never moved up. I didn't double check his research but he's fairly reliable when it comes to researching things. I found it interesting a team had worse luck than us, or at least similar as far as not moving up.

Has anyone researched the lottery history to see which teams have benefited the most? I may try to do that myself but I thought I'd ask before I committed to the work.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Has anyone researched the lottery history to see which teams have benefited the most? I may try to do that myself but I thought I'd ask before I committed to the work.

I've never researched it but my guess is that Orlando and the Clippers have had it pretty good.

 

[Hoop Head]

I found Hoopshype has researched it, with Philadelphia getting the most help from the lottery having moved up 19 spots since it was introduced. Teams that never moved up include Dallas, Minnesota, Miami, and Denver. The Suns did move up back in 87 to #2 for Armon Gilliam, which isn't mentioned in the article but I thought I'd note that here.

Minnesota apparently has the worst luck having been pushed back a total of 16 spots since the lottery was introduced in 85.

Here is the image from the article that shows team movement in the lottery. It's smaller in the article and harder to view, I thought.

Seeing the Lakers have some of the best luck isn't surprising but seeing the Knicks have some of the worst luck is.

You must be registered for see images attach

Here is a link to it, for those interested. I guess this saves me some time. It's not as comprehensive as I would prefer but it does give a really good rundown of everything.

https://hoopshype.com/2019/05/14/draft-lottery-odds-minnesota-timberwolves-dallas-mavericks/

 

[Hoop Head]

I've never researched it but my guess is that Orlando and the Clippers have had it pretty good.

Surprisingly enough they seem to be fairly even overall. I know they lucked out the year after they got Shaq but they were awful when they drafted Dwight Howard. The Clippers meanwhile were bad for so long that it doesn't surprise they even out for the most part. They may have had some movement but they were consistently in the lottery for almost it's first 20 years.

I found this article from 2016 also that breaks down the same question, they talk of the Timberwolves there as well as the Kings, who at the time had missed the playoffs for their 10th straight year.

For those who read the other article, I think this is worth checking out also. I know there have been a few drawings since then but I think those drawings are recent enough that we can fill in the blanks on our own.


https://www.chicoer.com/2016/06/12/which-nba-teams-have-best-worst-draft-lottery-luck/

 

[BC867]

But none of that matters to BC who continues to act like the Suns had opportunities to draft Shaq (team wasn't in the lotto) or Kareem/David Robinson (lost the coin flip) and just decided not to, while ignoring that up until Sarver took over the Suns had the 4th best winning percentage of ALL TIME during Jerry's reign over the team.

Hey, guys, why is it wrong for me to have wanted the Suns to become more than a 'pretty' team for the last 40+ years as Phoenix grew?

Can anyone fault that thinking? Do any of you disagree with it?

Especially since the Suns were turned over to a loser and we've become an 'ugly' team this decade.

To paraphrase an old Amish saying, "The harder I root, the behinder we get."

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Hey, guys, why is it wrong for me to have wanted the Suns to become more than a 'pretty' team for the last 40+ years as Phoenix grew?

Can anyone fault that thinking? Do any of you disagree with it?

Especially since the Suns were turned over to a loser and we've become an 'ugly' team this decade.

To paraphrase an old Amish saying, "The harder I root, the behinder we get."

There’s no fault in your desire. Rather a lot of us believe your claim that Jerry never tried to be anything other than entertaining doesn’t have merit.

 

[slinslin]

I found Hoopshype has researched it, with Philadelphia getting the most help from the lottery having moved up 19 spots since it was introduced. Teams that never moved up include Dallas, Minnesota, Miami, and Denver. The Suns did move up back in 87 to #2 for Armon Gilliam, which isn't mentioned in the article but I thought I'd note that here.

Minnesota apparently has the worst luck having been pushed back a total of 16 spots since the lottery was introduced in 85.

Here is the image from the article that shows team movement in the lottery. It's smaller in the article and harder to view, I thought.

Seeing the Lakers have some of the best luck isn't surprising but seeing the Knicks have some of the worst luck is.

You must be registered for see images attach

Here is a link to it, for those interested. I guess this saves me some time. It's not as comprehensive as I would prefer but it does give a really good rundown of everything.

https://hoopshype.com/2019/05/14/draft-lottery-odds-minnesota-timberwolves-dallas-mavericks/

It is much more likely to drop in the lottery the worse you are. eg when you have the worst odds under the old system there was a 75% chance that you would drop down. In the new system it is even bigger.
When you are 14th in the lottery you cant drop down. When you are 12th the chances are very small that one of the 2 teams behind you can jump ahead.

Minnesota was in the bottom 3 so much in positions where it is more likely to drop than to stay or move up.

Being way in the negative has nothing to do with luck.

The Lakers however did have a lot of luck to be so advantaged in so few trips to the lottery.

To truly measure "luck" we would have to see this data relative to the chances of moving up/down.

 

[BC867]

There’s no fault in your desire. Rather a lot of us believe your claim that Jerry never tried to be anything other than entertaining doesn’t have merit.

But, Ouchie, for four decades, Jerry never succeeded in making the Suns a strong playoff contender. It is about results.

With the exception of Barkley who, at 6'4 1/2, couldn't carry it, we have always been a finesse team.

Then Jerry's hand-picked successor turned the Suns into unbalanced losers. Again, it is about results.

 

[JCSunsfan]

But, Ouchie, for four decades, Jerry never succeeded in making the Suns a strong playoff contender. It is about results.

With the exception of Barkley who, at 6'4 1/2, couldn't carry it, we have always been a finesse team.

Then Jerry's hand-picked successor turned the Suns into unbalanced losers. Again, it is about results.

Come on. This is not true. To the finals twice, conference finals many times.

Jerry's "hand-picked" successor? He was the guy who could put together the cash who said he would keep the team in town. It's not like he groomed Sarver for the job.

The deceitful spin in these statements is laughable.

 

[Azlen]

Seeing the Lakers have some of the best luck isn't surprising but seeing the Knicks have some of the worst luck is.

The Laker's luck is skewed quite a bit based on this year's result. Nine of the 10 spots they moved up were from this year's draft. Take away this year and they're right in the middle. The Lakers got "lucky" in being able to obtain Kobe Bryant but that wasn't from the ping pong balls.