Muggum

Who's got this game still on Tivo/tape? We've got to dissect it. Amare played only 21 minutes due to horrible foul trouble. I remember some of those calls being outrageously bad and ridiculously untimely.

Unfortunately, I erased the game as I usually do when we lose painfully.

If they won by 7 and the line was in the range of 4, it's a classic example of a game where tampering might have made the difference.

Bottom line, the FBI's probably eventually going to be able to answer our question for us.

I'm no conspiracy theorist, but I'm guessing that he probably DID throw this game. It's easier to disguise large wagers on a playoff game, where bets are already bigger than they would be in the regular season. Huge regular season bets draw more attention/suspicion. A big bet on a playoff game would never raise any eyebrows.

Plus, the easiest way for a ref to affect the outcome of a game is by saddling a star with foul trouble. And that's precisely what happened... multiple phantom calls on Amare at excruciatingly inopportune times.

With the amount of contact that occurs every time down the floor, it wouldn't be hard to make a close, at least barely justifiable call pretty much whenever you wanted to. Donaghy would have only needed to make one or two of those kind of calls at the right times to cut Amare's minutes in half. Did he?!

SactownSunsFan

I have it. I'll check it out later when I have the time.

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az jam

Amazing story line. It sure would be interesting to see the game again. What was the point spread and who made the foul calls.

buttsR4rebounding

Very interesting. Although, it appears that he was betting on the visitors when he was betting on his own games. Home teams had an incredibly bad record of 30-41-1 against the spread in game that he reffed when the home team was a favorite.

Muggum

I want to know who blew the whistle on Amare in each of those 5 instances. We may or may not be able to tell from watching the television broadcast.

Skratchy_Seal

The questionable fouls on Amare were not whistled by him.

A quick look at game 3...
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/7045572?MSNHPHMA

DarenG

I don't buy this guy changed the outcome of the series in just one game. However, for those conspiracy theorists, don't' forget to look at the calls he didn't make as much as the ones he did. Ignoring fouls can have as big if not bigger impact on the game. For instance, had Tim Duncan fouled out that would have had a bigger impact. Especially if he was constantly not being called for fouls.

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Sunsman44

This just in:

Robert Horry just handed Steve Nash one of his seven rings. Nash then took it and made Kerr shove it up Sarver's ass.

Errntknght

buttsR4rebounding,

Quote:

Home teams had an incredibly bad record of 30-41-1 against the spread in game that he reffed when the home team was a favorite.

Donaghy's record was not what you claim - his record for all 74 games he reffed was 30-41-3. In other words, the part about 'when home teams was the favorite' is incorrect.

Moreover, it was not that remarkable compared to some of the other refs. The percentages of home games won by the home team for the ten refs with the lowest percentages are (not counting Bill Spooner who only reffed 3 games, of which home teams won 1 so he's at 33%):
30% Jess Kersey
38% Ed Malloy
38% Zach Zarba
39% Bernie Fryer
40% Luis Grillo
40% Ed F. Rush
40% James Capers
41% Tim Donaghy
42% Jason Phillips
42% Dan Crawford
followed by eight refs tied at 43%

I'm not in any way claiming that Donaghy didn't shave the margin for home teams or change some outcomes but his results do not stand out statistically, as you claim.

I also do not think the numbers are wins and losses but over and under against the spread. I'm not a bettor on games but the figures you give for Donaghy match the columns for the bet labelled "ATS" which I guessed means "against the spread". (Those are the columns I used for the data I presented.)

If you knew that one ref was favoring 'away' teams, from this data you'd have to say Jess Kersey stands out a mile.

Muggum

His cheating may not be reflected in the statistics, because there likely wasn't any pattern to whom he was helping/hurting. If he were smart, sometimes he would have favored one side, sometimes the other, sometimes increasing a margin of victory, sometimes decreasing it.

And he likely would have picked his spots. A game here, a game there. A call here, a call there.

From what I understand the FBI only got onto this guy by listening to Gambino family wiretaps. Nobody suspected him from the statistics. Crooked calls are just too easy to hide in the larger context of thousands and thousands of blown whistles each year.

azirish

In another thread, there are some suggestive stats.

Muggum

The first two fouls of the game on Stoudemire... both questionable... were called by Donaghy... in the FIRST QUARTER. If I'm a ref looking to make an impact to help the Spurs and hurt the Suns, those are the two calls I make... Sit a team's best player for the rest of an entire half.

dreamcastrocks

You don't sit a player for an entire half for two fould. For the 1st quarter, sure, but not the 1st half.

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'Just to reiterate, Derek Anderson isn't hurt.... he has just been benched.'
-Sam Rosen

azirish

Most observers think the first foul was legit, but the second was very quetionable and done so quickly D'Antoni did not have a chance to get Amare out of the lineup.

asudevil83

the thing is though, that most fouls ARE legit. calling legit fouls on certain players is the easiest way to get them out of the game without looking shady.

but in an average game i bet a player commits at least 3x as many fouls as are called on him. so refs have ample opportunity to limit a guys effectiveness in a game whenever they feel like it.

call early legit fouls on a guy to take them out. and then just look for fouls to call later in a game to take them out when you need to. its perfect.