Originally Posted by jefftheshark

Anybody watching what's going on here?

The bubble's expanding really fast with all the press the JPM naked short issue is getting. It seems that they are short more silver than currently exists in the world and every dollar it goes up in price makes it more likely it could scuttle the bank.

On the other hand, the FED is going to fight this tooth and nail, as high silver and gold prices are the death knell of the dollar.

So the question is: Which side is going to win?

It's hard to see fighting the FED and their unlimited printing press, and yet they are not larger than the market itself and this thing could be a gigantic black hole (or Black Swan?) that gobbles up everything of value in America.

So my second question is: Am I reading too much on the internet because the darn Cardinals suck, or is anyone else out there in ASFN-land wondering what in the hell is going on too?

JTS

Originally Posted by Shane H

Have you been to a game this year? If so how come you haven't told me so we can meet for a drink?

Originally Posted by jefftheshark

You know I never go anywhere without telling you first.

But no games this season, I made the decision in July that I wasn't going to take my half of the tickets, so the guys selected a different aquatic predator to join them this year.

From what I understand, "Barracuda" is pretty f'ing funny so I'm not sure I'll get the tickets back next season if I've been replaced. I might have to beg you to take me, although you're probably far too smart to make that mistake.

JTS

Although what this has to do with "silver" is beyond me, unless you were speaking about Coor's Silver Bullets, or better yet Patron.

Originally Posted by jefftheshark

Anybody watching what's going on here?

The bubble's expanding really fast with all the press the JPM naked short issue is getting. It seems that they are short more silver than currently exists in the world and every dollar it goes up in price makes it more likely it could scuttle the bank.

On the other hand, the FED is going to fight this tooth and nail, as high silver and gold prices are the death knell of the dollar.

So the question is: Which side is going to win?

It's hard to see fighting the FED and their unlimited printing press, and yet they are not larger than the market itself and this thing could be a gigantic black hole (or Black Swan?) that gobbles up everything of value in America.

So my second question is: Am I reading too much on the internet because the darn Cardinals suck, or is anyone else out there in ASFN-land wondering what in the hell is going on too?

JTS

Originally Posted by LVG

Fell $2.00 today. Whee!

Originally Posted by conraddobler

As I've said a couple of times, this is loaded with risk.

The problem is not the real supply of silver, it's how easy it is to create an artificial / real short in silver.

They have an unlimited supply of money with which to short it and it's not just them it's anyone who observes the trade is getting too crowded on the long or short side.

The FED can start the ball rolling through it's proxies and then watch the hedge funds annihilate the longs.

This isn't going to happen until someone decides it needs to happen, then it's the down elevator.

You have to watch your entry and your cost basis on this stuff, then decide what kind of trade it is, long term hold, long term short, or just daytrading or whatever, then set stops and get out when you're wrong at the target point you set as defining wrong.

When silver was $8 it was an easy long term bet IMO, now I have no idea.

None of this is trading advice.

Originally Posted by jefftheshark

I sold SLV on Friday (the long stuff) and went short (ZSL) and watched in horror as it hit over $30. I added to my short and then between yesterday and today saw a great move to the downside where I cashed out a few moments ago.

So I guess I'm a daytrader now.

I have a target in mind for it to go down to and then I think I'm long again, although probably entering into the position a little bit at a time.

As far as I'm concerned I'd like to see the battle continue for a while and let the price bounce between 27 and 30 and just play the sides while in the middle. I did this two years ago with DIG & DUG and it worked out quite nicely.

As usual, this is not advice, just putting it out there what I'm thinking and because I like to hear what you are all thinking as well.

Thanks!

JTS

Originally Posted by jefftheshark

I sold SLV on Friday (the long stuff) and went short (ZSL) and watched in horror as it hit over $30. I added to my short and then between yesterday and today saw a great move to the downside where I cashed out a few moments ago.

So I guess I'm a daytrader now.

I have a target in mind for it to go down to and then I think I'm long again, although probably entering into the position a little bit at a time.

As far as I'm concerned I'd like to see the battle continue for a while and let the price bounce between 27 and 30 and just play the sides while in the middle. I did this two years ago with DIG & DUG and it worked out quite nicely.

As usual, this is not advice, just putting it out there what I'm thinking and because I like to hear what you are all thinking as well.

Thanks!

JTS

Originally Posted by Shane H

So just how much am I gonna have to float you in order to get in on this and actually make some money??

Originally Posted by conraddobler

I'm thinking that one huge driver of this would be if the tax cut bill dies.

Basically that's the last inflationary gasp IMO, then when Con gress is sworn in and the Pubs take over the house I expect the spending brakes to be applied.

There's still epic housing damage to deal with and the banks are going to get totally wiped out if the yields on treasuries continue to soar they'll be totally hosed down.

Remember a lot of them were borrowing heavy IMO from the FED near zero and then buying treasuries for the yield but if you watched the 10 year yield zoom a percent in a matter of less than a month that's crushing their principal.

I see an EPIC short here on earnings, depends on who was dipping into that til the hardest.

Also if the tax cut bill goes through, look for yields to resume their rocket ride up for another few months and when it's done I expect nuclear devastation from what I mentioned before and also a possible fast unwind of our own carry trade on the dollar strength the yields are causing.

Dollar goes up, it rains on your carry trade because the FX losses wipe our your yield since a carry is really a short on the currency.


Not trading advice.

Originally Posted by jefftheshark

There are 3 things you can never get involved with: A land war in Asia, a wager with a Sicilian when death is on the line and taking stock advice from some guy named "The Shark" on the internet.

Originally Posted by jefftheshark

There are 3 things you can never get involved with: A land war in Asia, a wager with a Sicilian when death is on the line and taking stock advice from some guy named "The Shark" on the internet.



Today gave us a preview of what will happen if the tax bill really dies. In one minute today, silver lost about 3%.

I know this isn't a new thought, but there is almost no way to trade this market except for momentum daytrading kind of stuff, which is what I'm doing. Fundamentals have been out the window for a while and now technicals are SOL as well. I haven't looked at a 3 month chart in a couple of months, I now look at only one day, or two day max and even with a one minute candle, you can't get a feel for crap. SLV mini-flashed today and anybody who had stops or limits within 2.5% were probably triggered and then either very surprised or very unhappy.

You are echoing my thoughts as well about the bond vigilantes and yields, I guess you've seen what the 30 has done to mgt. rates (being in the biz ) Increased interest carry could eat Mr. B very quickly if he doesn't watch out. (if you saw him on 60 minutes you have to wonder if even has a clue he's so far out on a limb)

The biggest problem is see is a repeat of late '08 where suddenly, nothing has any value because there is nothing to peg it to.

Of course we lived through that, too - and it created a great buying opportunity, at least for those either brave enough or stupid enough to buy.

JTS

Originally Posted by conraddobler

Yeah the ultimate hysterical irony of all this FED speak is that QE2 was touted as keeping yields lower.

OOOPS.

They have to chose, the stock market or the bond market.

You can't save both, actually I don't think you can save either truly.

We're right on schedule with the brick wall.

It's like watching a car crash in super slow motion, just because you can go out and get a slurpy, have dinner, go to sleep and wake up and still barely tell the scene has moved forward, the end result is the same and it's going to be fugly.