jefftheshark

And no, I'm not saying that we are heading for the worst case, but here is a very long, yet fairly sober look at what investments you should be looking at if you think the S is about to HTF.

Enjoy!

Link


JTS

conraddobler

That's a handy flowchart that makes it much easier to see what to do based on any eventuality.

I would caution people though that currently the big fish on Wall Street are playing a high stakes game of musical chairs trying to headfake each outcome and thus bankrupting people right and left who're tempted to put all their eggs into one basket or another.

It takes mad skills to be a trader now and nerves of steel to be a long term investor based on which outcome you forsee.

It's going to look like at any one time you're right or very wrong even though ultimately it will likely switch back and forth several times before settleing down in any one outcome.

The problem with knowing what to do is that they know you know etc etc and so it's one big game of tricking you into zigging while they then zag on you.

It'd be comical if it weren't so serious.

I don't really know what to tell anyone to do other than to say it's a mess.

Ultimately someone is going to be very right and if they stick to their thesis and they are right it'll payoff.

Personally I think that you have to factor in the fact that banks control the money, the central banks that is, and credit is only getting tighter.

That to me speaks of deflation as we deleverage, this could go on for a long time until the funding mechanisim for the whole ponzi scheme detonates and that could take one day or 15 years.

We're not Japan, I don't see how we'll get deflation that long but I also don't think we'll get inflation really except in food and such.

This isn't trading advice, heck I have all my money in basically cash or short term T bills with some silver and gold.

It's flat out a mess.

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When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity. John F. Kennedy

jefftheshark

It's funny but when I was lobbying for this forum, I envisioned a place where we could discuss strategies, trends and investment sectors, and that we could share our ideas and hopefully glean some insight from one another's experiences and thoughts.

But in reality, there is no strategy, trend or experience that anyone could possibly share right now that is any better than just throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal list of stock symbols.

I talk with a lot of people during the day about what is going on in my industry (construction & development) and how to best plot a course of action in both business and the market, and end up flip-flopping several times a day on what to do about either one. It is apparent from my vantage point that the upcoming CRE tsunami is going to hit us so badly that it defies my imagination, and yet even people in my industry act like there's nothing unusual going on. I sometimes feel like I'm trapped in one of those 50's sci-fi movies where you know that the Martians have invaded, but no one will listen.

Or perhaps I just feel like you have for the past 2 years, Conrad.

JTS

jw7

Yes it is a mess. I have rebalanced my portfolio and cash is not looking so hot as an investment but so far, I just care about protecting what I have and not looking for huge risk-free gains. The best risk-free option is paying down high-interest debt. I have no idea how a cc company or an auto-loan can charge 4-20% while risk-free pays 1%.

Yeah, it is tough. I am very defensive right now. I have cash, index funds, bond funds and gold. Gold has kicked ass over the last couple of months, but the others are just holding value.

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conraddobler

What's really funny is that my industry would already be dead if the government hadn't stepped in and taken over the entire mortgage market.

Ironic that I rail on the government and it's currently supporting me, BTW, thanks for the free money, without you guys I'd have to find different work

It's truly bizzaro world out there, I quit talking to people in my industry for the most part, if they don't begin the conversation with well this is certainly unique and terrifying then I just assume they're part of the crowd who's happy the government saved us all.

__________________
When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity. John F. Kennedy