Lionsgate (NYSE: LGF)

jw7 · February 11th, 2012, 07:08 PM

So I bought into this last Nov after I heard they have optioned the "Hunger Games" film franchise. It appears they also now have rights to the final "Twilight" and all the residuals.

It's gone up 38% since I bought it and a nice Motley Fool snippet.

I just can't interpret Hollywood balance sheets/income statements as a lot of it seems to be funny money debt.

But if Hunger Games blows up this spring, maybe a bargain?

I normally don't buy stocks in industries I know crap about, but this was just a hunch.

You guys shot holes in my picks before, please tell me what I am missing here.

D-Dogg · February 11th, 2012, 10:20 PM

I'd never buy it long range, but it might get a short term spike.

Given when you bought it though, it was almost PERFECT timing. Last big trends to buy were in late December.

I'd watch for any big drops in the MACD and Stochastic to see if it's time to get out, but it seems you can hold through the spring.

It is a good short term buy, given when you got in. Hold on to it for a bit - but at the soonest sign of a downturn that drops below the moving average and has decent volume, you might want to bail.

jw7 · February 12th, 2012, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donald

I'd never buy it long range, but it might get a short term spike.

Given when you bought it though, it was almost PERFECT timing. Last big trends to buy were in late December.

I'd watch for any big drops in the MACD and Stochastic to see if it's time to get out, but it seems you can hold through the spring.

It is a good short term buy, given when you got in. Hold on to it for a bit - but at the soonest sign of a downturn that drops below the moving average and has decent volume, you might want to bail.

Thanks Donald.

I am not a disciple of technical analysis at all, but I did put in a stop loss to protect some profits and hopefully ride the upside.

If you had to peg a stop price where would you put it. I bought it at 8.60 and it is currently at 11.84. Be interested to see your opinion.

D-Dogg · February 12th, 2012, 04:53 PM

I don't know, really. It depends on how volitile a stock is, historically. You want to be able to account for swings up and down, and not have your stop triggered when the stock is still in a climb.

Setting it between a 10%-20% drop sounds good, but I'm a technical trader so that's a backup backup plan. I personally just get high-value companies, buy them on the cheap when they are out of favor in the market, watch for upswings and buy them on the rise, then watch for them to fall out and sell them, perhaps buying them back again later. I don't watch more than 20 stocks...really hard to find stocks that meet my criteria, then I just watch them like a hawk.

Gaddabout · February 13th, 2012, 04:23 PM

There are people who do really well with this stuff, but they understand where the profits/losses are hidden and are on it then off it in a hurry as the fates change.

What I do know is it's rarely a company with just both feet in movies -- they're almost entirely integrated entertainment divisions now. Lionsgate actually does TV, as well. Mostly cable shows like Mad Men. They excel at picking up hot potatoes (like when they took Dogma off Miramax's hands with the Catholic League breathing down they're neck). They're sort of like a Canadian Miramax before Miramax sold out to Disney. On the flipside, they don't have an enormously powerful figure in the front office like Miramax had in Harvey Weinstein.

jw7 · February 15th, 2012, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donald

Setting it between a 10%-20% drop sounds good

Yeah, that's pretty much where I put my stop.

Might not need it, though. James Cramer on CNBC spent 7 minutes pimping the hell out of this stock yesterday.

Too bad not many people watch CNBC

jw7 · March 2nd, 2012, 07:29 PM

I am loving this stock right now. Beat Twilight for advance ticket sales.