jefftheshark

Market's been signaling a top for a week now. Nikkei and Asia way down tonight after a brutal day in NYC today.

Good time to look at your stops.

JTS

conraddobler

Correction?

That would imply we're in a new bull market.

I'd be real careful with that one.

I don't play online poker anymore because it's rigged.

Careful you don't overplay your hand on the assumption you know what the great beast is up to.

Only a fool or a real insider should play this market, if you think you're a shark go right on ahead but there's no crying in scam markets, remember that.

Stops are a great idea, make sure you use them JMHO.

They don't do much in waterfalls, not saying we'll get one, but just friendly advice.

Not investment advice of course.

The great beast and Obama's interests are diverging, I think things like that are seminal events, Obama can't hug them and the American people at the same time.

The boats leaving port and he's on the pier and the boat, he's got to choose fast, if he really chooses the stuff is going to hit the fan all at once.

__________________
When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity. John F. Kennedy

Russ Smith

Yeah the last week was a bummer. I had considered going mostly cash in my IRA's if the Dow hit 11K but it didn't before this week happened. I lost $4200 in my IRA's combined today alone, close to 10K for the week.

This week was particularly brutal for Brocade, hit a high of 8.04 on Thursday closed at 7.79 and sold off today closing at 7.41. No real reason for the selloff but it cut $100 off my value for now. It's the only stock I'm holding now and when it broke 8 twice recently I thought it was setting up for a run up but no such luck.

Oh well, that's what happens when the president says he's going to go after the banks because he is trying to divert attention away from the Mass. election.

__________________
“Your expectations always exceed outside expectations. I feel like you just can’t stop working, can’t stop getting better, because I’ll be a failure in my eyes before I’m a failure in someone else’s eyes.” -- Arron Afflalo

82CardsGrad

4 letters for ya Russ... ISRG. Went up over 35 points today. No, that's not a typo...

Russ Smith

Tell me about it, when ISRG was under 100 I was going to buy it again but didn't it's more than tripled since then. and that was just March.

Great company I nearly worked there several years ago made the final 2 but the other guy got the job. At the time I told myself well the stock is over 100 so my options wouldn't have been worth much anyways.

__________________
“Your expectations always exceed outside expectations. I feel like you just can’t stop working, can’t stop getting better, because I’ll be a failure in my eyes before I’m a failure in someone else’s eyes.” -- Arron Afflalo

jefftheshark

The move down was quicker than I thought but look at the chart:



Monday could be interesting. If the current trend continues, we should see a bounce back up, but if the S&P drops much father than this "support", it could be "look out below"!

JTS

disclaimer: currently long SDS, VXX with tight stops

conraddobler

The Scott Brown election could actually have been the black swan.

Obama forced to tack away from banks, proposes GS 2.

Banks turn off S&P upomatic.

Bernanke renom in trouble.

Or GS went short.

Lot's of things could be in play, none of those are fundamentals because no one has bothered with those quaint things in almost a year now.

I kinda agree with those that are saying we just saw the largest halfway back of our lifetimes.

It could meander around here but if it ever crosses the 61.8 retrace point from the top of the market to the bottom in March 2009 then I might rethink it.

Strictly as a trade you could of easily gone long that chart into the bell with a good set of stops.

Only reason I wouldn't have is because if Bernanke would go down in flames over the weekend that would cornhole you good, stops or no stops.

__________________
When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity. John F. Kennedy

jefftheshark

Yeah, f'in' gaps.....lol.

And Brown probably fits the Black Swan scenario, as you say. If true, the the giant vampire squid is going to do a Sampson on BO and bring the market to its knees.

If you think about it, there is far more money to be made by the banks on the downside than there is on the up, and since the general public is generally long, then this situation makes a lot of sense. You could see GS dropping to 100 and still have Goldman make a ton of dough trading the FAZ, which they have literally killed the last 10 months (I know from personal experience - f me for looking at fundamentals ). I wouldn't be too surprised to see Citi thrown to the wolves either, especially since the biggest two losers in the deal would be the US taxpayer and the Middle East (Dubai for the best example).

Any more discussion on this is probably more P&R material however.

JTS

d: short gold, long USD, FAZ

LVG

I understand that talking about finance sometimes lends itself to a brush by with politics, which is why talking about the effect of policies or potential policies is fine on this forum.

It's when we get into the "The idiots did what?!" discussion that it starts to become P&R material. However, I hold off until I see the discussion having a majority of P&R type comments.

__________________
RISE UP DARK SIDE

"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is often difficult to verify their authenticity." - Abraham Lincoln

conraddobler

Yes this.

Politics is hopelessly intertwined into the markets, so if you want to talk about the markets, you have to talk some politics.

There's so much that hinges on what's done it's scary, the last depression was all about the reactions to the mess that shaped it's overall effect and lasting power.

IMO we're about at that stage in terms of where alliances forged in panic start to come unglued.

__________________
When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity. John F. Kennedy

Russ Smith

So the question is how low(I'll use the DOW) do people think this is going? Is it a one week correction or worse?

I had planned to move most of my IRA into cash if the DOW hit 11K, unfortunately it dove before that. Now I'm in the classic do I move it out now and miss a rebound, or do I stand pat and it goes quite a bit lower?

the problem now is that the markets aren't being driven by the usual forces, right now it's being driven almost entirely by "what is Obama going to do next."

__________________
“Your expectations always exceed outside expectations. I feel like you just can’t stop working, can’t stop getting better, because I’ll be a failure in my eyes before I’m a failure in someone else’s eyes.” -- Arron Afflalo

82CardsGrad

It's more than Obama messing it up... China is talking about tightening and pulling in the reigns. Unemployment continues to be a major problem... And yes, Obama going after banks and financial institutions is factoring in as well... Uggghhhh....

Russ Smith

Sorry I should have clarified. I mean the likely next big mover in the market will be the State of the Union Address which I think is Tuesday?

One of the comments on Friday was that a lot of traders on the market floor were very nervous not knowing what Obama would announce there. You're right about what China said and about unemployment but I think barring some unforseen occurrence the speech Tuesday night will be the next momentum one way or another.

__________________
“Your expectations always exceed outside expectations. I feel like you just can’t stop working, can’t stop getting better, because I’ll be a failure in my eyes before I’m a failure in someone else’s eyes.” -- Arron Afflalo

conraddobler

Maybe Obama will give us a hint like he did in March?

This is rather soap operaish.

Obama says buy stocks and zooom!

Then Obama trots out Darth Volker and goes boo!

Market cringes.

I'd move my money out right before they shutoff the upomatic system, so if you can find the guy who has that information just follow along with what he does.

__________________
When written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger and the other represents opportunity. John F. Kennedy

jefftheshark

The markets are working with an inverse correlation to Bernanke's chances of winning a 2nd term. The market rallies when it looks like he has the votes and drops when he doesn't.

Of course, this just shows how manipulated the markets are, which in turn shows what the ultimate outcome will probably be when all support is removed. (Hint: it's f-ugly).

JTS