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All 7 teams in front of us have TOUGH games ahead, if we take care of USC & U of A on the field we have as good a shot as any of slidingin there with some slip ups by the teams ahead of us
1. LSU - SEC championship game
2. Oregon - O-ready-GONE!
3. Kansas - #5 Missouri; possible big 12 chamionship (Oklahoma)
4. Oklahoma - Big 12 championship (Kansas or Missouri)
5. Missouri - #3 Kansas; possible big 12 chamionship (oklahoma)
6. West Virginia - at #22 cincy then #24 UConn
7. Ohio St- - going to the big house
8. ASU - a quality win over USC would shoot us up the board
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Ironically, the Oregon loss hurts us as much as it helps. The loss to UA dinged Oregon's SOS, which means our loss to Oregon is going to hurt us a little more, some greater some lesser depending on the computer poll.
If everyone wins this week, we could actually drop a slot. I don't think we could climb. Beating USC won't give us as much of a jump, either, because their loss to Oregon weakens their SOS, too, and Stanford pretty dings them every week.
I think you're falling a little too much into the Team A beats Team B and Team C beats Team A, therefor Team C could beat Team B line of thinking Gad, and thats not really how most pollsters think. You don't see anyone putting ASU ahead of Oklahoma because ASU beat up on Colorado.
The loser of the border war (KU-Mizzou) is out, but we need the winner to then lose the Big12 title game. We need Oklahoma to lose to either Texas Tech or Okie St (or both, since, I dont like OU), but then beat the Mizzou/KU winner.
Then like you said, if LSU, Ohio St and WVU lose (all very real possibilities), there's no way a 1 loss ASU team doesn't jump all of them. Either way, if ASU wins out, their smelling Roses, if they win out and get some help, buy your tickets to New Orleans.
I think you're falling a little too much into the Team A beats Team B and Team C beats Team A, therefor Team C could beat Team B line of thinking Gad, and thats not really how most pollsters think. You don't see anyone putting ASU ahead of Oklahoma because ASU beat up on Colorado.
The loser of the border war (KU-Mizzou) is out, but we need the winner to then lose the Big12 title game. We need Oklahoma to lose to either Texas Tech or Okie St (or both, since, I dont like OU), but then beat the Mizzou/KU winner.
Then like you said, if LSU, Ohio St and WVU lose (all very real possibilities), there's no way a 1 loss ASU team doesn't jump all of them. Either way, if ASU wins out, their smelling Roses, if they win out and get some help, buy your tickets to New Orleans.
Actually I'm thinking of the six computer polls which control 1/3rd of the BCS vote. They all take SOS into account. When 2nd place is probably going to come down to hundredths of a point, stuff like Oregon losing to UA hurts. It definitely hurts your SOS when a team you lost to loses to a lesser team.
So you think if ASU wins out, and is one of only 2 one loss BCS teams, they might not make it?
The only team I can see getting in over them would be if LSU lost this week and then won the SEC Title. Not saying it's right (cause it would be a complete crock of crap), but I could see it happening. However, if there's only two 1 loss teams (out of the 7 top teams right now), I think it would be near impossible for them not to meet in the BCS Title game.
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Rubarb is what makes my feet look cheese!
So you think if ASU wins out, and is one of only 2 one loss BCS teams, they might not make it?
Let me put it this way: Among the teams with one loss or less, ASU ranks ahead of only Hawaii and Boise State.
You're not going to get the vote among coaches, and the Harris Poll seems even more sold on the traditional schools. ASU needs a boost from the SOS. So color me skeptical that ASU would beat out a two-loss LSU or Oklahoma -- both of which have championship games to get a SOS boost in the computer polls.
The Elo Chess predictor right now puts ASU on a path for a 87.33 finish if they win out. It puts LSU at No. 2 with a 93.36 and Oklahoma at No. 3 with a 92.77. That's if all three win out. I suppose if ASU beat USC by about 50 points, that could provide a nice computer poll swing in those like Sagarin that give credit to point differential, but what's the likelihood of that? ASU will be happy if they win by 3.
The Elo Chess predictor right now puts ASU on a path for a 87.33 finish if they win out. It puts LSU at No. 2 with a 93.36 and Oklahoma at No. 3 with a 92.77. That's if all three win out. I suppose if ASU beat USC by about 50 points, that could provide a nice computer poll swing in those like Sagarin that give credit to point differential, but what's the likelihood of that? ASU will be happy if they win by 3.
Remember when they said the BCS would eliminate the need for teams to run up the score?
If 5 teams end up with one loss and the BCS picks 2 of them to play for the MYTHICAL national championship they should dissolve the BCS.
Remember when they said the BCS would eliminate the need for teams to run up the score?
If 5 teams end up with one loss and the BCS picks 2 of them to play for the MYTHICAL national championship they should dissolve the BCS.
I don't remember when "they" said the BCS would do what you just said and I read just about everything I can find on football.
I'm not going to moan about bad outcomes until they occur. Until ASU beats USC, which I don't expect to happen, assuming we'll get screwed in the BCS scheme is way premature.
I don't remember when "they" said the BCS would do what you just said and I read just about everything I can find on football.
I'm not going to moan about bad outcomes until they occur. Until ASU beats USC, which I don't expect to happen, assuming we'll get screwed in the BCS scheme is way premature.
I wasn't just talking about ASU. So far the BCS has lucked out and for the most part the 2 teams playing in the championship game have been pretty reasonable. One of these years 4 or 5 deserving teams are going to all end up with one loss and its going to be a total farce.
I hate the BCS. Not because I think it fails to decide a true champion. I hate the BCS because it ruined all the things I loved about bowl season.
I used to love watching 27 games on New Years Day. I hate that the games are spread out over a week now. I used to love the fact that the PAC10 champ went to the Rose Bowl. Winning the PAC has always been a major accomplishment. The first time I saw a non PAC/BIG TEN matchup in Pasadena I almost puked.
Michigan going belly-up today will all but end our title dreams. There's no way ASU leapfrogs a one loss OSU and it's REALLY against all odds that EVERY team above OSU drops a game. Booooooo Michigan! You freaking stink.
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Rubarb is what makes my feet look cheese!
The first time I saw a non PAC/BIG TEN matchup in Pasadena I almost puked.
I'm completely the opposite. I've always felt like the Rose Bowl closed itself off because Alabama embarrassed the West Coast in the 20s. Honestly? It's incontrovertible evidence that East Coast bias -- and especially SEC bias -- started because the Pac and the Big 10 hid behind the veil of a closed Rose Bowl. It didn't close off immediately, but the process began when Alabama beat what Rose Bowl officials thought would be an unbeatable Washington team in 1926. The South made so much of it, with dozens of celebratory train stops from Pasadena through Texas to Tuscaloosa, West Coast administrators made sure they would never be shown up like that again.
So the closed Rose Bowl, to me, was nothing more than delusions of grandeur. The Pac and Big 10 like to think of themselves as champions, but you're not really a champion unless you play the best in the country. It's one of the reasons why I supported the BCS (in lieu of a true playoff, of course).
I think you've misunderstood what I've said. The computer rankings are the only rankings giving ASU much credibility. It's the Coaches' Poll and Harris Interactive that's turning it's nose up at us. USC is in the same boat -- the computers have them as high as 7th, and their worst ranking -- 19th -- is thrown out. So the computers like USC a little better than the coaches or Harris, which have USC at 13. So beating USC is not likely to give ASU help where they need it the most -- coaches and Harris, 2/3rds of the BCS rankings -- so they have to rely on where they're strong -- computer polls.
The BCS formula tosses out the best and the worst ranking among the six, so ASU is a solid No. 4 in the computer rankings. Since Oregon is ahead of ASU in all the polls, it has a plus/minus affect. All of them take SOS into account. ASU has a slot to move up into, but it's by the only team that beat them, so the computers brand their 1 loss much much heavier. That 1 loss was fine when Oregon only had 1 loss to a middling team. Now they have another to a team that has lost to New Mexico.
It's sort of like STDs -- when you lose, it's a lot like losing to all the other teams your opponent lost to.
If ASU makes an example out of USC on national TV and others team struggle they'll get quite the boost in the human polls. The problem however is that USC hasn't lost by more than a TD since 2001.
They're also not getting any help from Cal (their best win thus far) either who looks like they're on their way to 7-5 or 6-6. The Pac-10 is certainly not living up to the preseason hype, ASU and perhaps Stanford are probably the only teams in the conference that is exceeding expectations.
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Addressing the Core by Rod Graves:
1. Re-sign Calvin Pace (Miss)
2. Negotiate Extension with Dansby (Miss #2)
3. Re-structure Fitzgerald (TBD)
Last edited by MaoTosiFanClub; November 17th, 2007 at 03:50 PM.
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