Derek in Tucson

With another 4 shutout innings, Elmer Dessens is up to 14 total IP in spring training without allowing an earned run. While I'm sure DWKB will be around to bring us back down to earth, it still is nice to see Dessens looking this sharp.

And just for Lakin, who Brenly seems to be channeling in the interview....

"It's almost boring,'' Arizona manager Bob Brenly said. "Elmer just throws quality strikes around the edges of the strike zone, around the bottom of the strike zone and he doesn't make any mistakes around the middle of the plate where he can get hurt.''

I'll take boring anyday over the gopher balls that Helling and Anderson use to serve up.

schillingfan

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Erstwhile, Long Suffering Phillies Phan

RLakin

I must say very impressive thus far. I didn't like the Durazo trade at all, but if Dessens pitches this well in the regular season it's safe to say the D-Backs got what they wanted out of the deal, a consistent #3 starter.

DWKB

Well I don't think I have to warn anyone about the concerns from minor league performance (isn't Travis Lee batting .400+??) although it is promising.

If our defense is better than I think it is and Dessens keeps the ball in the park (which he most likely will) and not let people on base via the BB (which he probably won't) then he could have a good year. Putting balls in play is not inherantly a bad thing. I fully expect Dessens v2003 to be really close to Batista v2002.

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Smolder

pleasepleaseplease let this be real. please make me eat my elmer phudd comments. please.

adbacksfan

I have a great interest in what Dessins does and I hope he can keep it up. I have him on my Fantasy team which is lacking in pitching to say the least. Go Elmer!

Skkorpion

I haven't seen Dessens yet but I'm thinking of trying to catch his first regular season home start if I can work it.

unc84steve

I've been having a tough time getting Reds team pitching stats for the past few years to see if Elmer Dessens may have been unlucky in 2000 & 2001 with some return to more typical luck in 2002.

Of course all this "luck" talk centers on his ERA trends since 2000 which have been 4.28, 4.48, 3.03 .

A few reasons I'm still agnostic on Dessens are:

he had 10 unearned runs in 2002,
that his HR totals in the last 2 years were 32 (2001) & 24 (2002)
even in Spring Training his K-rates are low (5 in 14 innings).

I agree with DWKB, if Dessens keeps the ball in the park, the D'backs can get to the balls and catch them. If he gives up about a HR per start (with a start about 6 innings), he'll have a much harder time keeping that ERA below 4.

(Last 2 years:

Elmer Dessens
Year....starts..HR....IP....IP/start...HR/start...HR/9IP
2001....34......32....205...6.03........0.94...... ....1.40
2002....30......24....178...5.93........0.75...... ....1.21
2 yr
total.....64......56....383...5.98........0.87.... ......1.32

Comparison:

Curt Schilling
Year....starts..HR....IP.......IP/start...HR/start....HR/9IP
2001....35......37...256.7.....7.33........1.06... .......1.30
2002....35......29...259.3.....7.41........0.83... .......1.01
2 yr
total.....70......66....516.......7.37........0.94 ..........1.15

Rick Helling
Year....starts..HR....IP.......IP/start...HR/start....HR/9IP
2001....34......38...215.7.....6.34........1.12... .......1.59
2002....30......31...175.7.....5.86........1.03... .......1.59
2 yr
total.....64......69...391.3.....6.11........1.08. .........1.59

Brian Anderson (not a full-time starter)
Year....starts..HR....IP.......IP/start...HR/start....HR/9IP
2001....22......25...131.3.....NA........NA....... ........1.71
2002....24......23...156.0.....NA........NA....... ........1.33
2 yr
total.....46......48...287.3.....NA........NA..... ..........1.44

My conclusion: Curt could "get away" with HR's for a couple reasons, his high K's, low BB's and he wasn't that bad with the gopher balls. Rick Helling had a better chance to get away with the HR balls because of his K-rate (6-plus) while Brian Anderson had no chance.

If Elmer keeps the ball low in the strikezone & thus avoids HR's while avoiding K's & BB's, a lower HR rate would predict a lower ERA.

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Steve

Derek in Tucson

Well I don't know exactly what you're looking for Steve, but here's some numbers that might help:
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Dessens had a strand rate of 71% in 2000 and 2001. Last year it was 82%.

Strand rate = (Hits+Walks-Earned Runs)/(Hits+Walks-HR)

Those pitchers with strand rates above 80% tend to have artifically low ERAs and you can expect to see a higher ERA the next season.
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Hit rate of 27%, and and none lower than 30% in any other year of his career.

Hit Rate = (Hits-HR)/((IPx2.82) + Hits - K - HR)

League average for hit rate is 30%. The conclusion is that Dessens was a bit lucky last year with an artifically low hit rate and strand rate.
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So by the numbers Dessens is expected to have a higher ERA than last season...by at least 1 run. All this still won't keep me from thinking that he can do better, but I know I'm playing against a stacked deck.

Moose Lady

And this year he might have another reason, namely playing on a WS team that wants to win and knows how to do it.

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Steve Finley - my favorite Gold Glove centerfielder

Cland

Atta Boy Elmer!

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