2003 Projections

DWKB · January 28th, 2003, 11:42 AM

Code:

Player	AB	BB	K	HR	H	2B	3B	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
Gonzale	580	88	78	35	177	33	4	5	0.305	0.397	0.559	0.956	129
Womack	575	37	73	5	153	22	7	34	0.266	0.311	0.352	0.662	63
Spivey	540	69	116	14	145	30	7	13	0.268	0.351	0.427	0.778	81
Finley	525	54	81	21	140	28	3	12	0.267	0.335	0.454	0.789	80
Counsel	445	53	63	3	121	21	2	6	0.271	0.349	0.347	0.695	54
Bautist	400	25	57	12	118	20	5	6	0.295	0.337	0.455	0.791	61
Overbay	400	32	90	11	109	25	1	2	0.272	0.327	0.421	0.748	55
Moeller	400	36	99	11	95	20	1	2	0.237	0.300	0.372	0.672	45
William	375	24	64	15	100	20	2	2	0.268	0.311	0.452	0.763	53
McCrack	325	25	60	3	90	20	4	7	0.278	0.330	0.388	0.717	42
Grace	250	37	21	5	70	16	1	1	0.279	0.372	0.417	0.789	39
Barajas	250	10	48	7	55	14	0	2	0.218	0.250	0.357	0.606	22
Cintron	250	8	37	2	58	12	2	4	0.234	0.258	0.313	0.571	20
Dellucc	195	25	46	5	52	9	2	2	0.267	0.349	0.421	0.770	29
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total	5510	523	933	149	1483	290	41	98	0.269	0.332	0.418	0.750	772
2002	5508	643	1016	165	1471	283	41	92	0.267	0.346	0.423	0.769	819

Dback Jon · January 28th, 2003, 12:10 PM

And whose conjecture is this?

I would say Bautista is low as well.

One thing I learned playing Fantasy Baseball - the preseason projections are just that - some are high, some are low, few are right on.

schillingfan · January 28th, 2003, 12:48 PM

Where did 121 walks go?

Why didn't you put up the pitching projections, too? D-Backs were naturally 1-2 in the NL. They also rated Miguel Batista highly.

DWKB · January 28th, 2003, 01:20 PM

Maybe you two are confused or I somehow mislead you.

These our my projections using a new age pattern matrix. I'm showing them to

A) generate discussion
B) test them out for this year

The MLE's are still in progress ( which is why Overbay and Cintron are so low ). And of course Gonzo's fluke 2001 year really stresses my regression.

I have not done pitching projections yet so there are none to show.

I assume the 121 BBs went the same place the 83 Ks and 18 HRs did.

Dback Jon · January 28th, 2003, 01:23 PM

Thanks - there was no clue that these were your own.......

DWKB · January 28th, 2003, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dback Jon
Thanks - there was no clue that these were your own.......

I would have assumed that this line:

I just can't predict Overbay correctly.

would have given that clue but I must have assumed incorrectly.

Dback Jon · January 28th, 2003, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DWKB
I would have assumed that this line:

I just can't predict Overbay correctly.

would have given that clue but I must have assumed incorrectly.

And I would have assumed it referred to the previous line:

Overbay is way low and Cintron I believe is low but Gonzo is way high and Grace I believe is high.

AZCB34 · January 28th, 2003, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DWKB
Maybe you two are confused or I somehow mislead you.

These our my projections using a new age pattern matrix. I'm showing them to

A) generate discussion
B) test them out for this year

The MLE's are still in progress ( which is why Overbay and Cintron are so low ). And of course Gonzo's fluke 2001 year really stresses my regression.

I have not done pitching projections yet so there are none to show.

I assume the 121 BBs went the same place the 83 Ks and 18 HRs did.

Very interesting. I am going to print this out and see how close you come as well. Won't use it against you if wrong

I am not a stats guy very much but am always interested in how people use them, predict them.

Derek in Tucson · January 28th, 2003, 03:31 PM

Is this the new PECOTA method put out by Nate Silver?

DWKB · January 28th, 2003, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
Is this the new PECOTA method put out by Nate Silver?

No I'm sure his is much more advanced.

I'll probably post some tidbits when I get BP03 in in Feb.

schillingfan · January 28th, 2003, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by DWKB
Maybe you two are confused or I somehow mislead you.

These our my projections using a new age pattern matrix. I'm showing them to

A) generate discussion
B) test them out for this year

I assume the 121 BBs went the same place the 83 Ks and 18 HRs did.

Sorry, didn't realize you did them yourself. Looks like a lot of work.

Durazo had 49 walks in 222 at bats. Colby walked 13 times. Pro-rated to 500 at bats that wouldn't equal 121 once you add in those at bats to Overbay who I think walked a decent amount until last year.

DWKB · January 28th, 2003, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by schillingfan
Sorry, didn't realize you did them yourself. Looks like a lot of work.

Durazo had 49 walks in 222 at bats. Colby walked 13 times. Pro-rated to 500 at bats that wouldn't equal 121 once you add in those at bats to Overbay who I think walked a decent amount until last year.

Well yes, I've already said Overbay was most likely under-rated with the system, but I don't think he will get as many BBs as Durazo. Not even close. Durazo avg 5.5 ABs per BB in the majors. Overbay wasn't better than 7.5 in his career and that was in rookie ball. Overbay will most likely be around 10-11 ABs per BB in the majors.

On top of that, the DBacks overperformed in the BB catagory last year. If you look at '01 ( 587 ) you automatically lose 56. Go back to '00 ( 535 ) and you lose another 52.

I have Gonzo regressing a bit more back to normal from his 100 BB two year avg.

Miller avg a little more than 7.5 ABs per BB last year and there is no way Moeller and Barajas have that kind of avg.

I think you can easliy get 121 BBs out of these permutations.

DWKB · January 29th, 2003, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dback Jon

I would say Bautista is low as well.

I am curious as to what basis you have for this opinion.

Dback Jon · January 29th, 2003, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by DWKB
I am curious as to what basis you have for this opinion.

Mainly the Home Run total, etc. If he can rebound and play like he started to in 2002, I would think he could get 20-25 HRs.

I know he has never hit more than 11 in a year, but he was showing more pop. Playing everyday, and he is at the age when many develop HR power, I would certainly hope for more.

DWKB · January 29th, 2003, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Dback Jon
Mainly the Home Run total, etc. If he can rebound and play like he started to in 2002, I would think he could get 20-25 HRs.

I know he has never hit more than 11 in a year, but he was showing more pop. Playing everyday, and he is at the age when many develop HR power, I would certainly hope for more.

Again, even if he could turn that hot 1st half in '02 into a fulls season of '03 he would need 550 ABs to reach 20 HR.

I just don't see it happening.

( And of course "hope" doesn't factor in projections )