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The biggest nightmare for any new GM is to have his first major decision blow up and destroy the team. For a team that has had the success of the recent Suns, even a very good year would be a major let down.
Most observers agree that there is zero substance to the Chicago rumor and not much more to the Sheed rumor. Even though the idea came from a Detroit columnist, it would be turned down by the Pistons before Kerr has a chance to reject it.
The Boston offer is definitely real on the Boston side, but is a huge gamble from the Suns perspective. Even a reolly good player is unlikely to replace what Marion brings to the table this coming season. At some point, the deal would be rightly viewed as a cap dump. An established GM might take the risk, but for a new GM, a big failure would haunt him for the rest of his career.
This is not like BC in Toronto. BC had a complete free hand to deal anybody but Bosh due to relatively low expectations. Kerr lacks that luxury. Right now he has a team that could very well win it next season with almost no changes.
it doesn't matter what the merits of the deals are. I do not think Kerr wants to risk his whole GM career on a high risk deal.
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The biggest nightmare for any new GM is to have his first major decision blow up and destroy the team. For a team that has had the success of the recent Suns, even a very good year would be a major let down.
Most observers agree that there is zero substance to the Chicago rumor and not much more to the Sheed rumor. Even though the idea came from a Detroit columnist, it would be turned down by the Pistons before Kerr has a chance to reject it.
The Boston offer is definitely real on the Boston side, but is a huge gamble from the Suns perspective. Even a reolly good player is unlikely to replace what Marion brings to the table this coming season. At some point, the deal would be rightly viewed as a cap dump. An established GM might take the risk, but for a new GM, a big failure would haunt him for the rest of his career.
This is not like BC in Toronto. BC had a complete free hand to deal anybody but Bosh due to relatively low expectations. Kerr lacks that luxury. Right now he has a team that could very well win it next season with almost no changes.
it doesn't matter what the merits of the deals are. I do not think Kerr wants to risk his whole GM career on a high risk deal.
If Sarver tells Kerr that he won't pay the luxury tax, what does he do?
A league source confirmed Celtics coach Doc Rivers' interest in Marion, and Danny Ainge, the Celtics' executive director of basketball operations, has been a fan of the forward since being his first Suns coach.
I was under the impression Kerr was hired because he would come out firing from the start. That's what you get with a GM that has two decades of personal cache with the owner. If he's spending any time thinking about his legacy as an NBA GM, he's going to be toast from the first phone call.
I was under the impression Kerr was hired because he would come out firing from the start. That's what you get with a GM that has two decades of personal cache with the owner. If he's spending any time thinking about his legacy as an NBA GM, he's going to be toast from the first phone call.
The "Kerr the Knife" was brought up here by people anxous to make a lot of trades. But I've read no media reports to that effect and some statements that explicitly denied that is why he was brought in.
In any case, there are some low risk moves such as drafting someone with developed skills and signing Hill that would make him look good. Trading an all star for an unproven rookie is the kind of deal that would get second guessed for years to come.
Last edited by azirish; June 12th, 2007 at 10:27 AM.
I don't think it's a question of wanting to trade Shawn Marion in regards to Kerr. No one in the organization WANTS to trade him. It's a matter of what's best for the team financially going forward.
The Suns are in a lose-lose situation right now.
Marion has his opt-out option at the end of the season. If he wants to stay in PHX, he's going to threaten to opt out if the Suns don't give him an extension. Then what? Do you really want to have Marion making 18+ million dollars over the next 5-6 years? He is eligble for a 10 or 15% raise with his next deal. He's making 17+ right now, and you better believe he's going to be looking for big money. Are the Suns really going to pay him that much when he will be 35 by the end of that deal?
Or, if you keep him 1 more year and then he opts out after next season, you risk losing him for nothing, or you have to try and work out a sign and trade with another team. It's going to be hard to come up with a deal that's going to help on the floor, and on the books. Very risky
If the Suns trade him, there is almost no way they are going to be better going into next season. They aren't going to get fair value for him right now. For a team that has a very small window of opportunity to win a championship, a trade of Marion will probably make them take a step backwards in accomplishing their goal.
It's almost like the Suns can't have their cake and eat it too. It's a tough situation for them to be in. The Boston trade, if it is something both sides are interested in making, is something the Suns really need to consider. There is no way that Sarver is going to stay 9 million over the cap. It has been reported that he is looking to trim 4-5 million off that number. This could help, and the Suns could still get a good player in return, and another contract to bargain with.
Something has to give here. Anyone who would be upset with Kerr for trading Marion really doesn't understand the motivation behind it all.
Marion has his opt-out option at the end of the season. If he wants to stay in PHX, he's going to threaten to opt out if the Suns don't give him an extension. Then what? Do you really want to have Marion making 18+ million dollars over the next 5-6 years? He is eligble for a 10 or 15% raise with his next deal. He's making 17+ right now, and you better believe he's going to be looking for big money. Are the Suns really going to pay him that much when he will be 35 by the end of that deal?
I believe the Suns are the ones bringing up the opt-out option to better sell the idea of trading Marion to the public. Marion may not know to poor piss out of a boot, but it's unlikely either he or his agent are dumb enough to a) seriously consider opting out or b) threaten to opt out.
The reasoning behind (a) is no one is going to give Marion that kind of money. I don't believe any team but the Suns can, and the Suns already admit he's overpaid. The reasoning behind (b) is if Marion wants to be traded, he can't make a threat that would scare away potential suitors.
I believe the Suns are the ones bringing up the opt-out option to better sell the idea of trading Marion to the public. Marion may not know to poor piss out of a boot, but it's unlikely either he or his agent are dumb enough to a) seriously consider opting out or b) threaten to opt out.
The reasoning behind (a) is no one is going to give Marion that kind of money. I don't believe any team but the Suns can, and the Suns already admit he's overpaid. The reasoning behind (b) is if Marion wants to be traded, he can't make a threat that would scare away potential suitors.
Very good points, and very valid as well.
I don't know if it's the Suns organization that is bringing up the opt out option more than it is the local media. It is a possibility though.
Marion is going to be looking for one more big contract however. I can't see him passing up the last year of his deal, but if that means getting one more big deal before he turns 31, it's something his agent might be asking him to consider.
Everyone knows exactly why the Suns would trade Marion - money. So how much do you save and is it worth the price?
The first thing to remember with the Boston deal is that there is no savings in year 1. The only savings comes in year 2.
Second, the Suns are extremely unlikely to lose Marion without compensation. Even as a free agent, it is all but impossible for an outside bidder to offer more than the Suns who can offer an extra year. There would be only a few teams with enough cap space to even think about making a deal without sign and trade; with most being really really crappy teams.
Third, the guy signed with the pick is not going to replace an all star. This means giving up on winning the championship.
Marion is going to be looking for one more big contract however. I can't see him passing up the last year of his deal, but if that means getting one more big deal before he turns 31, it's something his agent might be asking him to consider.
He'll get one more big contract, but I think he'd have to consider going overseas if he wants anything comparable to what he has now. In this current reality of NBA salary caps, he's probably worth $11 to $12 mil per. Maybe less when we factors in the likelihood of a decline of his major talent, which is his athleticism, before any long-term contract expires.
If Sarver tells Kerr that he won't pay the luxury tax, what does he do?
He has to make a trade then.
Sarver has hinted very strongly in a lot of recent articles that he's fine paying the luxury tax this year because revenues are way up. I wouldnt worry about it.
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Originally Posted by Gaddabout
I was under the impression Kerr was hired because he would come out firing from the start. That's what you get with a GM that has two decades of personal cache with the owner. If he's spending any time thinking about his legacy as an NBA GM, he's going to be toast from the first phone call.
Two decades of personal cache w/ the owner? Huh? Kerr and Sarver met like 3 years ago. Or do you just mean because Sarver watched Kerr play at UA.
Everyone knows exactly why the Suns would trade Marion - money. So how much do you save and is it worth the price?
I would disagree here. There are those who live in fantasy world who think money is no big deal, and that the Suns need to do whatever they need to do keep this team together. Even if that means being paying this huge tax. It may be a smaller majority of fans, but they are out there.
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The first thing to remember with the Boston deal is that there is no savings in year 1. The only savings comes in year 2.
This is true.
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Second, the Suns are extremely unlikely to lose Marion without compensation. Even as a free agent, it is all but impossible for an outside bidder to offer more than the Suns who can offer an extra year. There would be only a few teams with enough cap space to even think about making a deal without sign and trade; with most being really really crappy teams.
I agree here as well, but if the Suns are going to get something for him, now is the best time before the Suns have their backs against the wall trying to trade him. They will get more compensation now than later. The Suns could offer him that extra year, but will they want to?
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Third, the guy signed with the pick is not going to replace an all star. This means giving up on winning the championship.
That's what makes all of this so difficult for them. Trading away Marion for a draft pick is risky, and does make them take one step back. Something has to give though. It will be interesting to what it is.
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