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Old January 9th, 2006, 12:06 AM   #1
CardShark
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My Prediction for the 1st Pick of the Draft


Titans want Young and get nervous that the Saints will come marching in and grab him, so they trade picks with the Texans. This makes sense for Texas as now they can more easily justify taking Ferguson with the #3 pick. I won't predict the trade package, but I don't see it being too big.

My top 10 would be as follows;

1. Titans - Vince Young
2. Saints - Matt Leinart
3. Texans - D'Brickashaw Ferguson
4. Jets - Reggie Bush
5. Packers - AJ Hawk
6. Raiders - Mario Williams
7. 49er's - Jimmy Williams
8. Bills - Haloti Ngata
9. Lions - Winston Justice
10. Cardinals - Lendale White
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Last edited by CardShark; January 9th, 2006 at 12:18 AM.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 03:58 AM   #2
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Lendale White


I think it depends on how fast he runs at the Combine or in individual workouts.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 05:56 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CardShark
Titans want Young and get nervous that the Saints will come marching in and grab him, so they trade picks with the Texans. This makes sense for Texas as now they can more easily justify taking Ferguson with the #3 pick. I won't predict the trade package, but I don't see it being too big.

My top 10 would be as follows;

1. Titans - Vince Young
2. Saints - Matt Leinart
3. Texans - D'Brickashaw Ferguson
4. Jets - Reggie Bush
5. Packers - AJ Hawk
6. Raiders - Mario Williams
7. 49er's - Jimmy Williams
8. Bills - Haloti Ngata
9. Lions - Winston Justice
10. Cardinals - Lendale White
This scenario is one that I could see happening and you have the players aligned with the right teams as well.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 06:07 AM   #4
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I just don't think Houston goes QB not when Reggie Bush is so worthy of the #1 pick and Houston already has a young QB on the roster(who they say they are giving him his roster bonus--which will happen BEFORE the draft).
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Old January 9th, 2006, 06:39 AM   #5
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The #3 pick helps justify taking ferguson, but only if Bush is off the board. If Bush is still there at #3 and they pass on him, it makes them look even worse.

Think about it. The reason they want to trade out of the #1 spot in your scenario is so that they can "justify" taking someone other than bush. Then, by a cruel twist of fate Bush is STILL on the board when they pick? If they are indeed looking for a reason NOT to take bush, I'd trade again.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 06:41 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
I just don't think Houston goes QB not when Reggie Bush is so worthy of the #1 pick and Houston already has a young QB on the roster(who they say they are giving him his roster bonus--which will happen BEFORE the draft).
?????????????

Houston isn't going QB here. They are taking an LT.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 06:58 AM   #7
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Sorry looked at the pick not the team. Houston won't trade out either though.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 07:02 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pariah
The #3 pick helps justify taking ferguson, but only if Bush is off the board. If Bush is still there at #3 and they pass on him, it makes them look even worse.

Think about it. The reason they want to trade out of the #1 spot in your scenario is so that they can "justify" taking someone other than bush. Then, by a cruel twist of fate Bush is STILL on the board when they pick? If they are indeed looking for a reason NOT to take bush, I'd trade again.
I think that playing against Texas really hurt Bush. He went up against a team with great speed and was basically shut down. It's this same kind of speed that he's going to be up against almost on a weekly basis in the NFL. It was more the QB position that I think Houston will be under pressure to take, namely Young. For every fan in Texas that saw that game, Young instantly became their hero. I also think his stock is going to continue to rise around the nation. For the following reasons;

1. Young took over that game.
2. Young carried Texas to the National Championship. USC got there by committee.
2. Leinart appeared to sustain a concussion. That'll be cause for concern.
3. Leinart seemed to take a step backwards from his Heisman year.
4. Bush disappeared against a defense that had speed.
5. Bush has durability questions.
6. Houston is already set at QB and RB.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 07:04 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
Sorry looked at the pick not the team. Houston won't trade out either though.
If they can get additional picks and the player they want for a position they need, why wouldn't they trade out?
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Old January 9th, 2006, 07:12 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CardShark
He went up against a team with great speed and was basically shut down.

...Bush disappeared against a defense that had speed.
I think it's a testament to his great ability if you can say he was shut down or disappeared and ONLY had:

13 rushes for 82 yards and a TD (6.3 average)
6 catches for 95 yards (15.8 average)

Let's not try to re-write history, here. Bush didn't have a through-the-roof game, but he was good against a great defense.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 07:27 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pariah
I think it's a testament to his great ability if you can say he was shut down or disappeared and ONLY had:

13 rushes for 82 yards and a TD (6.3 average)
6 catches for 95 yards (15.8 average)

Let's not try to re-write history, here. Bush didn't have a through-the-roof game, but he was good against a great defense.
Beat me to the punch.

Also...

Quote:
Leinart appeared to sustain a concussion. That'll be cause for concern.
Players in the NFL live with concussions. I wouldn't use a concussion as a reason to break the bank against him.

Quote:
Leinart seemed to take a step backwards from his Heisman year.
Actually, to the contrary.. He threw 5 less touchdowns, but had almost 500 yards (493 to be exact) yards passing than in his Heisman season.

Quote:
Bush has durability questions.
He also has explosiveness unlike anyone I've ever seen hit the draft, and that includes Barry Sanders.

I think the fact that Bush split carries is more of a sign of how good LenDale White truly is. At worst, I think Bush is this year's Ronnie Brown (with more explosiveness but less blocking ability), which isn't a bad thing by any means.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 07:38 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pariah
I think it's a testament to his great ability if you can say he was shut down or disappeared and ONLY had:

13 rushes for 82 yards and a TD (6.3 average)
6 catches for 95 yards (15.8 average)

Let's not try to re-write history, here. Bush didn't have a through-the-roof game, but he was good against a great defense.

For the great back he was heralded to be, I still think he disappeared in the biggest game of the year. If those were his stats against an NFL team then then I would put him in the same category as Faulk, Holmes and Tomlinson. But it was still a COLLEGE team. Albeit the type defense that he'll be running against weekly in the NFL. There is concern if he can hold up in the NFL. Remember that Arrington looked extremely fast and had more yards from scrimmage than anyone in his last year, but that hasn't transcended to the NFL yet.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 07:41 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by CardShark
Remember that Arrington looked extremely fast and had more yards from scrimmage than anyone in his last year, but that hasn't transcended to the NFL yet.
You're not trying to compare Bush to Arrington, are you? There is a reason that three other RBs were taken before Arrington, and there's a reason that everyone is breathing the name "Barry Sanders" in the same breath as Bush.

Could Bush be a bust in the NFL? Sure. Is is stock being hurt by the Rose Bowl? No, not by a long shot.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 07:52 AM   #14
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I still have Leinart and Bush in the top 3 as far as how I would rank them. What I'm saying is that Young will be #1 in the eyes of Texas fans. That's where Houston will feel the pressure to take him if they stay at #1. They can justify taking the player they really want and need if they trade down to #3. They can cite having 2 quality backs for passing on Bush. Can they go any lower and still get Ferguson? I don't think so.

Now this would all change if they were able to get a quality LT before the draft. At that point they could stay and take whoever they wanted or trade down even further and stockpile picks.
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Old January 9th, 2006, 08:02 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Pariah
You're not trying to compare Bush to Arrington, are you? There is a reason that three other RBs were taken before Arrington, and there's a reason that everyone is breathing the name "Barry Sanders" in the same breath as Bush.

Could Bush be a bust in the NFL? Sure. Is is stock being hurt by the Rose Bowl? No, not by a long shot.

I'm saying it's rare for a player to live up to what he did in college simply for the fact that the NFL is a whole other universe. Out of all the backs that came out of last years draft, Cadillac Williams is the only one that put up good numbers. Remember all of the hype of Ricky Williams coming out. He was supposed to be the all time greatest. Ditka gave up his whole draft to get him. Well he was very good, but he's not in the same league has Barry Sanders in the NFL. I no longer buy into all the hype surrounding runningbacks in college. I don't think Bush will live up to the Sanders legend. I also think he'll just be a luxury they can't afford in Houston. They need a LT.
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