RugbyMuffin

Indianapolis Colts


Depth Chart:
http://www.colts.com/sub.cfm?page=depth

Game Comments:
Prime Time. Colts, Cardinals. What else could you ask for ? Seriously, this should be a good game. If both team show up and play a solid game, this could be highly entertaining.

Believe it or not, looking at the rosters, the Cardinals have the edge in this game. While both teams reflect each other very well, I think the Cardinals defense is better than the Colts. If the Caridnals defense can keep Manning contianed, and continue to play well against the run, I think Warner will be able to carve up the Colts secondary.

Yet, this is all assumption. The Cardinals have to come to the game ready to play, and focused. I mention the defense has to contain Petyon Manning, which is much easier said than done, and has to deal with Manning's no huddle offense. Can Antrel Rolle play better mentally, cause he will need to against Manning. Can DRC play consistently, and not lose his head against Reggie Wayne, cause if not it will be a long day.

The wildcard in all this ? Beanie "High & Tight" Wells. If Mr. Wells can hold onto the ball and keep himself in the game he could be the deciding factor. You can run on the Colts defense, and Beanie could provide a big play for us in this game, but he has to be able to hold onto the ball.

**** COME BACK LATER FOR MORE, SUPERSPOCK WILL HAVE MORE ON THIS GAME *****

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Brian

After watching the Miami game, this matchup scares me. It is strength vs weakness. Manning carved up Miami in the few chances he had. Ball control and time of possession were irrelevant.

It will boil down to two things:

1) The front 7 HAS to get to Manning. They have to. If he has time, he will shred the Cards secondary. Adub and Rolle are exactly the kinds of safeties he should feast on. He has to be pressured and hit. See the Patriots formula.

2) Turnovers. It all comes down to this. The Cards cannot give extra possessions to Manning, and when the Colts have the ball the Cards will have to find a way to get it back.

If the Cards can win the turnover battle (an even ratio won't cut it), and have Vinateri kicking field goals instead of extra points, they win. Anything else, I think they lose.

DieHardCardFan

Beanie is currently #2 and if you meant to say that our running game is the wild card, I would still kinda disagree with you. Before last week I would have agreed with you that our RUNNING game, not one player AKA Beanie, would be the wild card. But Miami had ALOT of success and still lost that game.

Our defense will decide this game more than anything. Our offense should have some success against the Colts. But Manning scares the cr@ap out of me if our D gets to playing undisciplined.

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splitsecond

Remember one thing: Whisenhunt was in Pittsburgh when the Steelers beat a MUCH more talented Colts team in Indianapolis in the 2nd round of the playoffs, after losing to them in the regular season.

The Colts D is not very good, and they have got to be exhausted from that Miami game, and have one less day of rest than we do. We should score a lot of points. But the question that ultimately decide the game, IMO, is how many points we allow Peyton to orchestrate. Use the right formula to give Manning fits, and their offense is done, and the game is ours.

TJ

Colts have the 30th best rush defense in the league. Aside from their D-ends, the rest of their defense is suspect at best, with Sanders out. This can be a break out game for Wells if he has proven to Coach that he can hang on to the ball. He has shown me tremendous vision, speed and ability to move the pile.

Honestly, I would play more Wells than Timmy this game.

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MadCardDisease

I think this game comes down to one thing. Keep Manning off the field.

That means that the Cardinals need to run the rock!

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Shane H

Didn't work so well for Miami and there 45 minute TOP.

BigRedRage

TOP still counts, Miami folded.

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slanidrac16

I know one thind is for sure....if we are up 31 -3 in the 3rd quarter, I'm leaving the starters in!


Bottom line, we need to score a lot of points.

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"Every time we step off the field, if our opponents say, 'Man, I hate playing that team', then we are making progress."
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SuperSpck

Thanks Rugby,

As always I learn about the opponents from a variety of sources. The Football Outsiders annual almanac, the Football scientist publications, local newspapers (a completely underrated area for material) and most importantly, actually watching games.

Like most of you, I've had the opportunity to watch both Colts games. They're an entertaining team to watch.

All said Arizona has a number of advantages over them.

Arizona gets the travel advantage. The Colts played Monday night and get to go from South Fla, back home, only to fly west again in 4 days.

Arizona also gets the injury advantage. CB Powers, as well as SS Sanders and 3rd stringer Silva, are all dealing with various injuries. Offensive lineman are banged-up too.

Both teams have been playing incrementally tougher matchups. AZ got the 9ers followed by the Jags, two teams who have a similar strategy. The Colts faced the Jags and the Dolphins. The Cards had a much better day against the Jags than the Colts did but who knows how much of the gameplan came from seeing what the Colts did well? Interesting stuff.

The Dolphins are a much better team than either the 9ers or the Jags and played the Colts very well. The Cardinals have a better passing offense than the Dolphins but not as dominating a run game. There’s a balance of opposites at play here. The Colts have yet to face a passing offense as the Cardinals, but the exact same thing can be said about the Cards themselves.

As noted, both QB’s are deadly when they stay clean, but wilt when frequently pressured, both have intriguing RB’s tandems who provide a supporting-role to deadly passing games. Both offensive lines have had struggles. The Colts have had a lot of trouble in terms of talent and health on the line.

The Cardinals have a more talented defensive front seven. Both have solid DB squads.

The Colts secondary could be considered better based on last year's statisical production but are never healthy enough to get national recognition.

Scheme
Offensively, the Outsiders say it best:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Football Outsiders We’re not kidding when we say that the Indianapolis offensive scheme never changes. The Colts have led the league in the frequency of single-back sets for four straight years, but have also ranked 23rd or lower in usage of four or more wide receivers in all four years. The Colts only had two backs (including a tight end lined up at fullback) in the formation for 11 percent of their running back carries.

The Colt’s most frequent formation is the single back 3 WR set.

Defensively, the Colts stick with the 4-3 defense. They’ll play some of the Tampa 2 that Dungy brought, but they also play more man and will blitz more than they did under Dungy.

Opponents of the Colts focus their defensive resources on receivers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Football Outsiders Peyton Manning saw five or more rushers only 21 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the league. Only five percent of the time did the Indy line need to protect against six or more. Only Houston saw fewer big blitzes. Colts opponents used three or more wide receivers on only 39 percent of plays, the lowest rate in the league — fairly astonishing considering that those opponents were often playing from behind. – Football Outsiders

So Manning isn't blitzed frequently. Clearly he can carve up a defense, but I'd be interested to see what happens if the Cards bring heat. We think Manning will eat it alive, but since he doesn't face that kind of pressure often, how can we be sure?

Manning also has a history of struggling against 3-4 defenses. Notably against SD and NE. This could be of help to the Cardinals, especially if they play in some of their more exotic formations and zone blitz. Pressuring Manning is paramount. He unravels badly when he gets hit.

Offense
QB
Peyton’s amazing. ‘Nuff said.

RB
Addai’s needs a complement to be successful and it looks like he’s found one in Donald Brown.

WR/TE
Dallas Clark is a stud. Period. He was a walk-on at Iowa. Just sayin’. His one weakness is his physicality while blocking but that’s hardly how they use him anyway.
In theory this should be an advantage for the Cardinals. Gonzalez is out but still have the impeccable Wayne and the intriguing rookie Garcon.

OL
The Colts appear to still suffer from weakness on the offensive line, something that followed them from last year.
The Colts are known for their slant/stretch run plays. That scheme is where a lot of their production comes from. The longer they stay away from it, the better it is for the Cards.

Last season, Charlie Johnson had a rough year at guard. He’s been shifted to outside to man the LT spot and is dealing with a bad back. When Johnson was inside last year he had trouble dealing with bull-rushers (something our own Reggie has had trouble with).

For those curious, former first-rounder Tony Ugoh seems to have fallen out of favor with the current staff.

Mike Pollack had a terrible year at RG last season.

Lilja and Diem are reliable linemen but can be streaky. Diem can struggle against stronger defensive players. This can be very good for Dockett.

Defense
DL
At DT the Colts have the cute tandem of Johnson & Johnson. Ed Johnson (#66) is active as both a rusher and as a contain-man. Antonio is less accomplished and is expected to give way to Fili Moala in the future but has had a decent first 2 games. They run a high rotation defensive line in attempts to keep people fresh, but there is some serious drop-off , especially at DT.

Freeney and Mathis are two of the best edge rushers in the league and they have a solid rotational man in Brock. Brock sometimes slides inside on obvious passing situations.

Gandy and Brown have had trouble with speed rushers. There are few better than the tandem of these two. Getting the rushing game involved early will help. Additionally keeping RB’s and TE’s in to chip or help will also be of immeasurable value.

LB
MLB Brackett is a rangy T-2 guy who works well in coverage. WLB Session is a feast/famine guy.

DB
This is a better-than-advertised group. They defend the deep pass very well (going deep isn't something the Cards play around with much anyway). They are fighting through some injuries. Starting CB Powers has a groin injury and SS Sanders is fighting a knee injury (status for both is unknown at the moment). Backups are CB’s Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings as well as SS Melvin Bullitt.
CB Kelvin Hayden earned a long-term contract because of his quality play. SS Sanders is great against the pass and run, Bullitt, his backup, greatest ability lies in stopping the run. CB Powers is 5’9” and plays very physically but will be tested against Boldin.

FS Beathea does have a broken hand but since the Colts spend time with the SS in the box he gets a lot of range-responsibility. He does a fine job in coverage but isn’t a notable ‘ball-hawk’.

The big matchup here will be Breaston, who will hopefully draw Tim Jennings, who is the weak link in the secondary.

Doug

Whether we win or not.I predict this will be Chris (Beanie) Wells' coming out party in the NFL.Timmy Hightower will get his yards too in the run and pass.We've got to get to where we can make our play action work so we're scoring 7 everytime we get the ball.

Sanders is due back the week after next at the latest,so WE have to take the advantage of this plus home field(start over) this game.Its gonna be a Playoff atmosphere in DA' NEST on Sunday night.We'll do the phins one better.

My hope is we come out in the no huddle to make sure we wear down that pass rush by the 4th quarter.My biggest worry is Manning not using the huddle to stop us from using our great depth and rotation.Sure hope we have a plan to deal with that circumstance if they use it.Why would'nt they?Anyone could tell you that Tom Moore knows our defensive strength is in our rotation ability & changing formations on 'D'.

Our defensive backs will have to be in PLAYOFF mode when the ball is kicked off.DRC,McFadden,Rolle,A-Dub,and I hope Ware is healthy enough to go again.Using Brown is putting up a big TARGET on the field.He must have help.Can Rashad Johnson grow up in one game along with Toler? We won't get the drops we got last week.And we need to show the best tackling we can after the catch.A free 70+ yard td pass is such a demoralizer.We CAN'T HAVE IT!!!

Maybe Robinson and Calais can have some batted balls early on with possibly Gabe too.I'm sure we're gonna preach hands up to the 'D' line all week.Fill the passing lanes even if you can't get to the qb.Pushing Jeff Saturday back is gonna be one tall order to ask of our trenchmen.At least they all have tasted the Superbowl and can know whats at stake on Sunday Night.

Telling our guys they have a week off after this game to make them give more than they ever have,will hopefully be an inspiration.If we don't win then thats gonna be one hell of an BYE week to put the bigboy pads on again.

We'll be facing our fastest runner yet in Chris Johnson after the Bye week.Boy will that be a tester.Gore,Jones-Drew,Addai-Brown,Johnson.No rest for the weary. GO CARDINALS!!!!

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Doug

Awesome post SuperSpck....more....more

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Totally_Red

Nice writeups Rugby and Superspck. The X factors are obviously Freeney and Mathis. I don't have a lot of confidence in Gandy and Brown slowing them down, meaning the short passing game and the ground game will be critical on offense.

On defense, clamping down on Clark is important. If A-Dub can unload on him early on, it can be very effective.

Given time, the Cardinals passing offense should be effective.

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football karma

I just think this game is a track meet

Its good that its at home, and that the Colts have a short week. In fact -- the Colts will be playing a road, non conference game coming off of a "stolen" road win. It all screams "let down" on the Colts part.

Its the reason I think Arizona wins the game --

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JeffGollin

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