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Old November 10th, 2008, 08:56 AM   #1
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Football Outsiders on Tim Hightower


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The move from Edgerrin James to Tim Hightower is another sign that Arizona Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt doesn't hesitate to put who he feels are his best players in the lineup, regardless of how much they make or how big their "name" is. In this case, it pushes a player signed by the previous staff and with two years and $10 million left on his contract to the bench...
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3689925
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Old November 10th, 2008, 01:21 PM   #2
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Read the rest of the analysis. It takes a small skewed sample and statistically proves the move to Hightower is a bad one.

Very nice find, Recclless. Thanks. Shows nicely how a cold, supposedly valid, evaluation of numbers can lead to an invalid conclusion. Given a few more games of numbers to draw on, I'd like to see a revisit to this by the author.
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Old November 10th, 2008, 01:41 PM   #3
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Numbers don't tell the whole story.

The thing about Edge is that no one is afraid he's going to do exactly what Hightower did and break it for a longer TD.

YPC and all that are meaningless at comparing the two, because one scares you the other is just annoying and easily dealt with.

Edge isn't a bad runner he's just not a threat you really have to worry about doing to you what Hightower did in one start.

100 yards and a TD a game are good stats and if that's all you saw you'd say well Edge can give you those numbers and it's true he can.

How they were compiled means much more and if you wanted stats that really told the tale you'd need to compare 30 yard or longer TD runs over the year and as that racked up you'd see why Hightower was better.
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Old November 10th, 2008, 01:46 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by conraddobler View Post
Numbers don't tell the whole story.

The thing about Edge is that no one is afraid he's going to do exactly what Hightower did and break it for a longer TD.

YPC and all that are meaningless at comparing the two, because one scares you the other is just annoying and easily dealt with.

Edge isn't a bad runner he's just not a threat you really have to worry about doing to you what Hightower did in one start.

100 yards and a TD a game are good stats and if that's all you saw you'd say well Edge can give you those numbers and it's true he can.

How they were compiled means much more and if you wanted stats that really told the tale you'd need to compare 30 yard or longer TD runs over the year and as that racked up you'd see why Hightower was better.
Agree, plus Hightower might actually improve, but Edge is on the decline.
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Old November 10th, 2008, 01:53 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Skkorpion View Post
Read the rest of the analysis. It takes a small skewed sample and statistically proves the move to Hightower is a bad one.

Very nice find, Recclless. Thanks. Shows nicely how a cold, supposedly valid, evaluation of numbers can lead to an invalid conclusion. Given a few more games of numbers to draw on, I'd like to see a revisit to this by the author.
Until Hightower does it against a good run D we can't really crown him. I hope he prooves himself against the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, and Pats. If he doesn't RB is going to be my top offseason priority for this team.
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Old November 10th, 2008, 02:09 PM   #6
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Until Hightower does it against a good run D we can't really crown him. I hope he prooves himself against the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, and Pats. If he doesn't RB is going to be my top offseason priority for this team.
It's sort of a catch 22...there are plenty of excellent RBs that haven't found success against those teams, maybe more than HAVE found success.

Plus, I suspect we'd attack those defenses with our strength, which--even if we had an elite back--is the pass.
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Old November 10th, 2008, 04:08 PM   #7
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I'm usually a big fan of football outsiders but they are dead wrong on this.

The stats Mike Sando put up with Hightower vs Edge running out of the I formation are stunning. Edge's YPC (less than 3.0) is so low that it is alarming.

I'm not ready to 'crown' Hightower yet. But man, he passes the eyeball test.
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Old November 10th, 2008, 06:25 PM   #8
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It's sort of a catch 22...there are plenty of excellent RBs that haven't found success against those teams, maybe more than HAVE found success.

Plus, I suspect we'd attack those defenses with our strength, which--even if we had an elite back--is the pass.
I don't expect him to have a great game against them, but if his average per carry is higher than what their average per carry allowed for the season is I'd say that's a good measure.
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Old November 17th, 2008, 03:15 PM   #9
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Bump.

Where do you guys stand on Hightower after the last 2 games against bad teams?
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Old November 17th, 2008, 03:32 PM   #10
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Bump.

Where do you guys stand on Hightower after the last 2 games against bad teams?
I still think it's the right move. Edge has no speed so he scares nobody, Tim is a threat.

I can't find split stats that show his numbers from the shotgun but I continue to think that's a big reason the run game is struggling, we're in the shotgun so much. Great for the pass attack, but not for the run.
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Old November 17th, 2008, 03:41 PM   #11
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For what the Cardinals currently do best...Arrington is the best option. We saw why yesterday.

The Cardinals are running one of the best ball control offenses in the league, if not the best. It just isn't the traditional running the ball control offense.

Each of the three RBs adds a different dimension...Edge is the best blocker and interior pounder, Hightower is the best combo (power and burst) option and Arrington is the speed merchant.
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Old November 17th, 2008, 03:43 PM   #12
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Our running game still sucks JJ looks like the best back on the team currently, maybe ride the hot hand? TH looks as bad as most of you say Edge is, turns out Edge wasn't and hasn't been the reason for us not being able to run the ball. At this point in the season maybe we should copy the G-men a little and use all 3 backs and kinda give defenses more to think about or just ride whomever seems to be playing the best that given day.
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Old November 17th, 2008, 03:59 PM   #13
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Hightower is fine. JJ is a nice change of pace back.

The problems are with the inconsistencies with our Oline and having a QB that takes a LOOOOOOOONG time to hand the ball off (All of our runs aren't draws by design, Warner is just that slow to hand the ball off. I like the guy but you have to take the good with the bad). Its not a coincidence that our best running plays happened when Warner could hand it off quickly.
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Old November 17th, 2008, 04:23 PM   #14
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Yea I still say Hightower is a great #2 back on a good running team and would like to find a good one in the draft this year. Won't matter until we get better OLine play, or sadly it might be until Warner retires before we have a top 10 running game if Evil Ash's theory is true.
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