OK Folks, here's the national election parlay card.
All odds are based off of fivethirtyeight.com as of Sunday, Nov. 2 2008 around 8.30 AM PST.
Here's the full explanation of every item, 538 odds at post and payout requirements:
538 runs 10,000 simulations per day. Therefore, when you look at the odds and scenarios, if it shows Obama winning 100% of the time out of 2000 scenarios, then the actual probabilities are 1/5 (100%x2,000/10,000).
[edit] - The way that Birdman explained it, therefore the odds would be 4/1.
Odds posted are bet to win. Numbers below are probabilities of event happening.
Now, your betting options on how the National Presidential Election will unfold:
1. Obama
loses the National Popular Vote, wins the Electoral Vote: 1.11%, rounded to 100/1.
2. McCain
loses the National Popular Vote, wins the Electoral Vote: 1.20%, rounded to 100/1.
3. Obama
wins more than 375 Electoral votes (Landslide): 29.28%, rounded to 3/1.
Note - the odds for a McCain landslide are 10,000/1 - no bet offered.
4. Obama
loses Ohio, Wins Election (no electoral votes from Ohio to Obama, Obama gets at least 270 EV): 78% out of 1709 / 10,000, or 13.33%, rounded payout of 7/1.
Note - McCain odds for the same are 10,000/6 - no bet offered.
5. Obama
loses Ohio AND Florida, Wins Election: 75% / 1474 / 10,000, or 10.1%, rounded payout of 9/1.
Note - McCain odds for same are zero. No bet offered.
6. Obama
wins all KERRY states, defined as: WA, OR, CA, HI, MN, WI, MI, IL, PA, NY, ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC: 96.63% - Or 1/1.
Note - McCain odds are at 10,000/7 - no bet offered.
7. Obama
wins VA AND loses OH: 72% / 1708 / 10,000, or 12.32%, rounded to payout of 8/1.
8. Obama
wins FL AND loses OH: 13.75% / 1709 / 10,000, or 2.35%, rounded payout to 43/1
9. Obama
wins CO AND loses OH: 72% / 1709 / 10,000, or 12.32%, rounded to a payout of 8/1.
Guess the Electoral Vote for Obama (or McCain, you just have to do the math):
10. 353 - 6/1
11. 364 - 6/1
12. 375 - 6/1
13. 311 - 6/1
14. 378 - 6/1
15. Other number - 6/1.
16. Last number in Obama's EV total is even: 1/1.
17. Last number in Obama's EV total is odd: 1/1.
The Senate Outcome:
Note - for the purpose of these bets, both Independents (Sanders & Lieberman) are included in the totals.
18. Democrats control a minimum of 58 seats: 1/1
19. Democrats control a minimum of 60 seats: 5/1
20. Democrats control a minimum of 62 seats: 10/1
Battleground States:
Arizona - Projected McCain win 95% of simulations:
21. Obama wins Arizona: 20/1
22. McCain wins Arizona: 1/20
Florida - Projected Obama win 64% of simulations:
23. Obama wins Florida: 1/3
24. McCain wins Florida: 3/1
Indiana - Projected McCain win 66% of simulations:
25. Obama wins Indiana: 3/1
26. McCain wins Indiana: 1/3
Missouri - Projected McCain win 57% of simulations:
27. Obama wins Missouri: 1/1
28. McCain wins Missouri: 1/1
Montana - Projected McCain win 90% of simulations:
29. Obama wins Montana: 10/1
30. McCain wins Montana: 1/10
North Carolina - Projected Obama win 66% of simulations:
31. Obama wins North Carolina: 1/3
32. McCain wins North Carolina: 3/1
North Dakota - Projected McCain win 74% of simulations:
33. Obama wins North Dakota: 4/1
34. McCain wins North Dakota: 1/4
Nevada - Projected Obama win 83% of simulations:
35. Obama wins Nevada: 1/5
36. McCain wins Nevada: 5/1
Ohio - Projected Obama win 83% of simulations:
37. Obama wins Ohio: 1/5
38. McCain wins Ohio: 5/1
Pick the Winning Senator:
Minnesota:
39. Franken - 1/1
40. Coleman - 1/1
North Carolina:
41. Hagan: 1/4
42. Dole: 4/1
I hope that this does the trick for the vBookie / political junkies out there. Sorry if it's too complicated / long.
[edit] By request:
43. Obama gets over 51.500% of the PV, including 3rd Party Totals: 3/2
44. Obama gets under 51.500% of the PV, including 3rd Party Totals: 2/1
FORZA DEL PIERO! 
Cosmic Defender Champion!
