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Arg, I could call based on projections the Franken / Coleman bet.
However, there's good money in items 10-17. The latest word from Nebraska (to wit these bets will probably depend on) is that there are 17,000 ballots left to count, with Obama trailing by 569, and based on previous results of the same type of ballots, they were going for Obama about 61%.
That's a 200 vote add to each 1,000 votes, so Obama should (if the numbers hold true) come out to about a 2,831 vote lead.
It looks like CNN hasn't called this for Obama. What's left is NC and MO. Obama leads in NC and wins the EV in Nebraska- if that holds and MO goes Mcain, we end up at 365 - 173.
#3 is a possibility if Obama wins both NC and MO. 364+11+15 = 375, regardless of NE.
39-40 will be the subject of a recount.
#18-19 are dependent upon the recount in AK and MN, and the runoff in GA.
#27-28, 31-32 are dependent upon a recount (maybe) in MO and NC.
I'll extend the payoff date. If anyone has a problem with this, let me know.
No election site is reporting this change (probably because it's one EV, so they're not rushing to their computer). The actual posting, with only MO (11 EV) to remain uncalled, is 365 to 162.
[edit] - 538.com is now calling the final EV totals at 365-173, based upon the single EV from NE to Obama, and MO going McCain.]]
It is now impossible, for bets 10-15, to be anything but #15.
MO will probably go McCain. That means that #17 will win as well.
#3 is a faint possibility if MO goes Obama.
Franken is only behind by 238 votes in MN.
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Last edited by lvgentleman; November 7th, 2008 at 03:44 PM.
No election site is reporting this change (probably because it's one EV, so they're not rushing to their computer). The actual posting, with only MO (11 EV) to remain uncalled, is 365 to 162.
[edit] - 538.com is now calling the final EV totals at 365-173, based upon the single EV from NE to Obama, and MO going McCain.]]
It is now impossible, for bets 10-15, to be anything but #15.
If we take MO to go to McCain (which 538 is now calling), the only remaining bets to be settled are 18-20 and 39-40. Here's where we stand with the uncalled senate races:
MN - Coleman v Frankin: Papers are saying that this race is going into 5OT. Most of the disputed ballots are from heavy leaning Obama areas - these ballots will have to be ruled upon and could decide the race.
AK - Stevens v Begich: Stevens currently holds about a 3000+ margin, however, again, the remaining uncounted votes are coming in from early and absentee ballots - which went heavy for Obama. You could see a lead switch here.
OR - Smith v Merkley: Race called for Merkley - a Democrat. Smith has conceded - this race is over.
GA -Chambliss v Martin: The runoff election has been scheduled for Dec. 2.
What this really means - All I need to decide this bet is for one Dem Senator to lose (which eliminates the possibility of #19 - sorry Beaver), and the decision of the 39-40.
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